What difference will Steven Lee's Departure make?

[M. Valdemar]

"A computer will never need more than 256k memory"
- Bill Gates

aizan, the average young adult would not (most could not) pay $2,000 for a digital camera of any kind, much less a rangefinder. That just bears no relationship to reality.

 

[M. Valdemar]

How many people would buy a cassette player with a set of headphones in the 1970's

Or a little hard drive with a set of headphones that plays crummy compressed music files? AND that cost $400?

Or a Pet Rock? Or a Popeil Pocket Fisherman? Only a few million or so.

O.K. You're in marketing. What do you project the world wide number of young people who would buy a manual focus rangefinder camera to be?

 

[Al Patterson]

"A computer will never need more than 256k memory"
- Bill Gates

That was more like 640K, if you look at the original segment and offset architecture of the 8086 chipset. Above 640K was the video driver memory and such.

 

[aizan]

if we're talking about teenagers, their parents would buy it for them. twentysomethings would buy it themselves.

they would not buy a manual focus rangefinder.

 

[aizan]

johnston's dmd isn't manual focus, though.

 

[Al Patterson]

How many people would buy a cassette player with a set of headphones in the 1970's

Or a little hard drive with a set of headphones that plays crummy compressed music files? AND that cost $400?

Or a Pet Rock? Or a Popeil Pocket Fisherman? Only a few million or so.

Sure, but think again of price points. The walkman was around $100, the Pet Rock was like $29.95, and for $29.95, Ron Popiel probably threw in a set of Ginsu knives with every Pocket Fisherman.

I still thnk that the price point on a mass marget consumer camera is on the order of $250 to $300. No more than $500. Over that price we're talking serious hobbiests. And we still haven't seen what the 5 megapixel chipset for Cell phone cameras will do to the low end of the P&S market.

 

[aizan]

depends on what it compares to. nikon d40x/canon 450d, or nikon d300/canon 40d?

 

[M. Valdemar]

1) OK, so my Bill Gates quote was slightly off. Sue me. You understood the point.

2) The statement below pure speculation. I think it's nonsense. If promoted correctly, there could be a worldwide market for hundreds of thousands, if not millions of manual rangefinder digital cameras.

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I think I'm right and you don't. There's no point in arguing a hypothetical point.

aizan, bullseye. There would be no substantial market among young people for any kind of manual focus digital rangefinder camera.

 

[aizan]

manual focus doesn't stand a chance in the marketplace, no matter how it's marketed. that spec is niche, not mainstream.

 

[M. Valdemar]

Ho, hum. Yawn.

The first thing I do when I want to have a success is to fire everyone who tells me why "you can't do that", and that what I want to do it "impossible".

In a world where you can sell billions of bottles of water in plastic bottles at for $3 each and billions of cups of fancy coffee for $5 per cup, ANYTHING is possible.

Steve Jobs was practically hooted out of town by every business pundit when he announced his plan to open "Apple Stores". They ALL said it was going to be an unmitigated disaster.

 

[M. Valdemar]

They would not be told to "give up" AF cameras.

They would be given a choice to ALSO use manual focus as a lifestyle enhancement, when AF is not "good enough". They would feel good about themselves to be able to ALSO appreciate an alternate, artistic technology. They would own BOTH.

How many people want a Porsche with Tiptronic as opposed to one with a stick shift?

If you can convince millions of people to give up autofocus cameras and return to manual focus, you are a genius.

 

[naos]

Ho, hum. Yawn.

The first thing I do when I want to have a success is to fire everyone who tells me why "you can't do that", and that what I want to do it "impossible".

In a world where you can sell billions of bottles of water in plastic bottles at for $3 each and billions of cups of fancy coffee for $5 per cup, ANYTHING is possible.

Steve Jobs was practically hooted out of town by every business pundit when he announced his plan to open "Apple Stores". They ALL said it was going to be an unmitigated disaster.

He's right. Look what the current Lomo did with their LC-A. Cheap plastic, faulty russian cameras selling for more then $200 a pop! It's all about the marketing.

 

[M. Valdemar]

Shifting patterns

Here is a chart that shows intentions/demand for manual transmissions by men and women in the last 20 years. It was created by CNW Marketing/Research in Bandon, Ore., based on a survey of new-vehicle shoppers who planned to buy a car or truck within six months. Intentions may not translate into a purchase because of lack of the option, vehicle inventory or salesperson.

1985 1990 1995 2000 2004
Men 52.8% 48.3% 28.1% 15.6% 9.3%
Women 4.4% 4.9% 7.7% 10.3% 12.7%
Overall 31.6% 28.8% 19.1% 13.6% 10.3%

Changing gears

These are total light vehicle sales (in millions of units) of domestic and import car and trucks broken down by automatic and manual transmissions:

MODEL AUTOMATIC %* OF TOTAL MANUAL % OF TOTAL TOTAL SALES
YEAR
1985 10,021,482 77.6% 2,887,171 22.4% 12,908,653
1990 10,141,794 78.7% 2,752,150 21.3% 12,893,944
1995 12,816,559 83.1% 2,602,211 16.9% 15,418,770
2000 15,995,874 90% 1,785,377 10.0% 17,781,251
2001 14,898,961 90.6% 1,540,618 9.4% 16,439,579
2003 16,752,979 92.6% 1,335,531 7.3% 18,088,510
*Includes manual/automatic hybrids
Source: Ward's Communications

 

[infrequent]

the main argument here is that leica has to take a punt. most of the leica fanboys would rather see it die without rocking the boat. its time they shed the historical baggage and produce something groundbreaking. and all the bull**** about where the R&D budget is coming from, well call in a few favours. else when will the partnership with panasonic / fujifilm actually come to bear fruit?

 

[aizan]

i could see a manual focus feature with a dof scale like on the grd2.

 

[naos]

Basically, there of a lot of people out there who still like to take photographs manually. Just like there are those who like to drive manual cars.

 

[keithwms]

At some point Leica needs to realize that nostalgia is worth approximately zero to the average young consumer today. I teach young people, most of whom happen to be quite well afforded. I can state with a high degree of confidence that "Leica" does not mean to them what it means to many of us. Young people live their lives around cool, highly-integrated, enabling gadgets. Just calling it as I see it. Leica means p&s to most people my age or youunger. I am sorry to report it, but it is so.

My honest fear is that Leica invested very heavily to overcome major technical complications to bring an innovative DRF... to a niche middle-age market.

I sincerely do wish Leica well. But they've had me scratching my head for a number of years now. I thought I understood the modul-R, but then *poof* it was gone. Now look, let's be honest, if that rig had been a hybrid AF film/DSLR with an interchangeable sensor mounted to a slick ergonomic body, then right about now everybody would be in line to trade their cropped-frame sensors up to full frame, and filmies would still be happy shooting b&w or slide with it too. I thought Leica totally missed the boat on that. They should have realised that [almost] nobody under 50 years of age gives a rat's ass about manual or AF any more. People who do care now expect to have both on the same camera. People want to know if their lens has vibration reduction or if it is in the body. People want to know if they have 30 AF points or 50. Live preview or not? Can it bluetooth to my printer? Can it synch to my iPhone? Hello.

In my honest opinion, to find a real foothold, at the very least the M9 needs to have some fancy manual focus confirmation like you have in some other cameras, and perhaps a DOF scale and such. People want technology.

Well maybe there will be new logic now. Or maybe they just kicked out the new logic (and in rather shocking manner). I guess we'll see.

Good luck to Leica and their craftspeople.

 

[mcsol]

How many people would buy a cassette player with a set of headphones in the 1970's


I am not in marketing but my guess is that you would have a hard time to market a cassette player in todays world? My respect if you succeeded. Same goes for marketing rangefinders...

 

[RuedigerMerz]

Just got an email:

Steven K. Lee Dismissed as Chairman

The Supervisory Board of Leica Camera AG today removed Steven K. Lee as Chairman of the Board of Management of Leica Camera AG with immediate effect.
At the same time the Supervisory Board appointed Dr. Andreas Kaufmann Chairman of the Board of Management for the period until February 28, 2009.
What does that mean for us Leica customers and future developments?


The email was from L Camera Newsletter - presumably the Leica Forum

It does not leave anything to the imagination - most un-germanic, to state a Board change using the words Dismissed and removed
The Germans were never subtle but such an annoucement cannot do their corporate image much good



Just my opinion I am not aware of the history to the decision

Bill,

they actually used the word 'abzuberufen.' which means recalled. Nobody will be removed or dismissed in such a position, unless he/she steals silverware.😉

Rudy

 

[CameraQuest]

Before Steven Lee departed, Leica was going for broke this coming Photokina, aiming to show a prototype full frame M camera and a new state of the art AF R10 digital SLR system to compete with Canon's and Nikon's best. The new high prices for these darlings will also set new Leica records.

I did my best to talk Steven Lee out of the R system last Photokina. To date, it has ALWAYS been a huge money loser for Leica.

Whether or not Leica will get to the above destination faster, better, or will now chart new directions remains to be seen.

It's interesting to see how many Leica watchers find interest in Leica's future. I wonder how many potential new product buyers are represented here.

Stephen