When they no longer make film...

just checked: approximately 100 rolls on ebay, in various sized lots. 25 and 64. I still don't care, but people who do this sort of selling buy a bunch and dole it out over time.
 
IMHO, by the time no one is making film anymore, digital sensors will be so good that practically no one would want to bother with film any more. if there was a digital sensor whose output could easily be printed as large as 80x100 feet, where it looks as good as 100 speed velvia at iso 51200 with a DR that matched or exceeded film in a camera that cost a grand or two, VERY few people would bother with film, and if the pace of advancement keeps up, we will likely have cameras/sensors very similar to that within ten or twenty years.
 
No film, really?

No film, really?

With my Leica M body, I would take the back cover off, glue the body over my door's peephole and set the shutter dial to B. When someone rings the doorbell or knocks, I'll wind it and press the shutter to see who it is. After releasing the shutter, I'll open the door. At least I'll keep the camera exercised till someone decides to make film again... 🙄
 
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chippy said:
i agree ,up to a point, but there a lot of 'if' in the above, and if i chose not to use film in some instances i would want sensors to be able replace LF (not stitch--it has to be one shot) and that isn't going to happen any time in the foreseeable future..if they are going to make LF film then they may as well make all the rest.

as for the promises, i been hearing the same thing for the past ten years. heck i remember when people insisted that 1-2MP camera was just as good as film--bollocks then, bollocks now!
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I agree that there is quite a lot of 'if' there, but I don't think it is all that unreasonable. The practical DSLR is only about ten years old, and look at how far they have come in ten years- they went from pretty much only being suitable for newspaper work (1 to 2 megapixels WAS good enough to replace film for newspaper work) to replacing medium format film in a number of art and commercial uses. If you consider one 'digital year' to be four to six calendar months, like many do, in another ten to twenty years, the practical dslr will be 60 to 90 years old in 'digital years.' The camera that many consider the pinnacle of film camera construction (at least when it comes to 35mm), the Nikon F6, came out in 2004. Compare that to the most advanced cameras in 1944 and in 1914 (You can make the same comparisons to film emulsions). If you consider the Nikon D1 as the digital equivalent of the Nikon F, we are already up to the equivalent of the F3HP in only a decade.

As to replacing large format film, I think Medium Format sensors will do that in about the same amount of time. Large format sized sensors just aren't practical, and I don't know if they ever will be, but I think that MF sensors will easily catch 4x5 by then, and perhaps even 8x10. We already have view cameras built for MF backs, so losing movements isn't an issue.

as to 'the promises,' i certainly make none. these are merely my predictions, extrapolated from what I have already seen happen, and I agree, a 1-2 megapixel camera certainly doesn't live up to 35mm film, but a 12-24 megapixel full frame camera certainly does, in my opinion.
 
It's probably a bit dicey to draw too many parallels with other digital products, but here are two that come to mind from personal computing.

First, the processing power of mainstream CPU's has risen by orders of magnitude since the personal computer first became available in the 1970's. While cutting edge CPU's still command a premium price, the overall capability of cheap and affordable CPU's has risen dramatically while prices have not.

Second, the cost of storage has dropped dramatically in tandem with storage capacity. Ready-to-go terabytes drives are available for my Mac for less than $200. For perspective, consider that people paid several hundred dollars for the first 10-20 megabyte drives.

Now, a digital sensor is not a CPU and it is not a hard drive. But, it is digital. My guess is that we will see steady increases in the size of cutting edge sensors, but not their price. At the point that all major DSLR vendors start putting what we here call full-frame sensors in DSLR's selling at a $700 price point, then we will begin to see competition and economies of scale coming into play, as they have in the PC sector.

That's my fearless prediction. Don't hold me to it.

rbsinto: Film sales continue to decline with nothing visible on the horizon to change that. Film may indeed be around for a long time yet, but it is a shrinking industry. We need to remember, too, that no one is selling new film cameras, with the exception of small niche players like Leica, Zeiss and C-V. All those used cameras we all keep buying and selling won't last forever, and nothing is out there to replace them.
 
35mm film that we RF folks love is the most endangered because it has been the most impacted by digital cameras. Film producers already say that sheet film is the largest percentage of film they sell.
 
wgerrard said:
My guess is that we will see steady increases in the size of cutting edge sensors, but not their price.
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That would be a radical novelty in the electronics industry, though. The downward price spiral (a.k.a. Moore's law) is due to higher integration and density, and the associated performance increase - the chip price by wafer area does not change as fast, and has ups as well as downs.
 
wgerrard said:
...
rbsinto: Film sales continue to decline with nothing visible on the horizon to change that. Film may indeed be around for a long time yet, but it is a shrinking industry. We need to remember, too, that no one is selling new film cameras, with the exception of small niche players like Leica, Zeiss and C-V. All those used cameras we all keep buying and selling won't last forever, and nothing is out there to replace them.
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Ilford 35mm film sales have been stable for at least the last year. The Croatian company Fotokemica has increased production. Ilford, Fotokemica, Fuji and Kodak have all introduced new emulsions in the past two years. Canon and Nikon both list 35mm cameras on their websites in their current line-up. Plus there are new film cameras from Hasselblad, Rollei, Sinar, Vivitar, Promaster, seagull, holga, and a host of other camera manufacturers of lesser import.

And no, cameras won't last forever. But I dare say that a Leica MP sold today will outlive most of us on this site.
 
sevo said:
That would be a radical novelty in the electronics industry, though. The downward price spiral (a.k.a. Moore's law) is due to higher integration and density, and the associated performance increase - the chip price by wafer area does not change as fast, and has ups as well as downs.
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Moore's law is generally taken to mean the doubling every two years of the number of transistors on an integrated circuit. The prices of these cutting edge chips typically remain relatively high, while the real savings are found in mid-range chips, which, of course, use technology that's now a few years old.

My point was only that when full-frame 35mm sensors are marketed in cameras with a $700 -- meaning prosumer -- price point we will see a noticeable drop in the price of smaller sensors. Eventually, as technology lowers the cost of sensors larger than full-frame 35mm, those sensors -- 35 mm -- will drop in cost and migrate to cheaper cameras. But, the biggest and best sensors, like the faster CPU chips, will always be the most expensive.
 
Chris101 said:
Ilford 35mm film sales have been stable for at least the last year. The Croatian company Fotokemica has increased production. Ilford, Fotokemica, Fuji and Kodak have all introduced new emulsions in the past two years. Canon and Nikon both list 35mm cameras on their websites in their current line-up. Plus there are new film cameras from Hasselblad, Rollei, Sinar, Vivitar, Promaster, seagull, holga, and a host of other camera manufacturers of lesser import.
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No good news can change the certainty there'll be a bad outcome. See post #27.

...Mike
 
In Fuji's imaging solutions division, the film segment revenues declined 42 percent year over year for the 1st quarter of this fiscal year. Color paper and chemicals lost 27%.

Kodak and Fuji may introduce new products, but their revenues are falling like a rock.
 
NO! They won't die. In my opinion, 35mm will be saved by the sheer number of cameras out there and 120 will be saved as an artist's medium.

A close parallel for the decline of 35mm will be what happened to obscure or outdated film formats.

120 film is still plentiful and comes in many 'flavours'. It's still the artistic medium of choice for many people because of the resolution that it can deliver due to lesser grain and diffraction limitations.

Some formats will linger for the next decade or so because of the sheer number of cameras sold. I have half a dozen APS cameras and I shoot them weekly. I can only get Advantix 200 locally and found some Nexia 400 on a recent trip to Tokyo. I buy others films off eBay. There's still plenty to choose from. Even 110 film is still available although there are fewer choices because there were so many of these cameras sold and enough people insist on using them.

Other formats will be saved by the DIY enthusiasts. Getting 620 film is a challenge but even when the get dead stock is gone you can re-spool your own or pay a premium to have someone do it for you. The same goes for Minox.

Heroic enthusiasts are even trying to bring back Polaroid because of the joy that this artistic medium brought. I believe some Fuji Instax films will work with polaroid backs and later people can always make a digital back (I wonder if we'll see a digital cartridge?)

Disc is truly dead, but that was a flawed sub-sub-miniature format concept that never caught on. It's neither commercially nor technically deserving to be brought back. Almost everyone could see that at the time.

Instead, I think the decline of film sales is an opportunity. It doesn't mean we'll have no film, only less of it. We should buy up all the decent film cameras right now because they won't be making many more.
 
Stephen S. Mack said:
I am going to sulk for a year.:bang:

Then I am going to learn an alternative process, like maybe Matthew Brady used, and keep on going.😀
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You don't have to worry about film availability in our lifetime. Even if everyone else goes bellyup, film production in China will march on and be exported round the globe.

Stephen
 
CameraQuest said:
You don't have to worry about film availability in our lifetime. Even if everyone else goes bellyup, film production in China will march on and be exported round the globe.

Stephen
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What film production in China? Last I heard, Lucky was moving entirely out of photosensitive film production following two years of 99% losses and Kodak sold off their stake like a hot rock. Shantou Era is no longer producing, according to my email correspondence with them.

Yes, I know, you can buy Lucky, Shangai, and Shantou Era on eBay. That does not meant they are still manufacturing film; and as far as I know, they're not.
 
bmattock said:
What film production in China? Last I heard, Lucky was moving entirely out of photosensitive film production following two years of 99% losses and Kodak sold off their stake like a hot rock. Shantou Era is no longer producing, according to my email correspondence with them.

Yes, I know, you can buy Lucky, Shangai, and Shantou Era on eBay. That does not meant they are still manufacturing film; and as far as I know, they're not.
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I think small European companies like Foma and Efke will be the last left. They both seem to be doing well, as is Ilford. Kodak built a new plant for professional film production a few yrs ago that was designed for low volume production in anticipation of film demand dropping off in favor of digital, so they should be able to stay in the game for a while.
 
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