New York August NYC Meet-Up 2021

Electrical roughing inspection performed today.

Saturday the plumber and carpenter will team up to address sistering up joists in the kitchen and dining room.

The weather has been gray and will remain so for a few days.

30 year mortgage rates at 5.1%. Experts say that because of lack of supply (shortages) suggests that home prices will likely hold steady, but interest rates will have to go much higher to curtail demand.

I believe in “regression-to-the-mean” and we had an extraordinary 3 decades of low inflation after Paul Volckner reset the economy by raising interest rates to 18%. When 2007-2008 happened “Quatitative Easing” was created to stimulate the economy, and again with the Covid Pandemic, the point here is an unprecedented amount of stimulus was created, and this stimulus is the cause of the inflation where shortages of supply and shortages of labor are crusading an inflationary spiral.

Presently the public has confidence in the FED and believes that the FED can raise interest rates in a balanced manner so as to avoid a recession (soft landing), but because of all the bond buying (Quantitative Easing), and the compounding effect of selling these bonds has on interest rates, this is ever more complicated than anything in the past.

Me personally, I don’t feel so confident in the FED and the path is fraught. Pretty much the Fed has to get rid of a lot of money that is floating around in the economy to tamp down inflation, and this level of stimulus is an unprecedented amount. They said that, “QE was just kicking the can further down the road,” and here we are…

So now realize the pain that could of or should of happened in 2007-2008, or where people would have ended without the stimulus during Covid… and now you take away the medicine.

I always say, The money has to come from somewhere. All I’m trying to say is that now might be the time where we have to pay the piper. Instead of households, consumers, and home buyers abusing credit to live beyond their means, now it is governments abusing credit.

Cal
 
More Knotweed war today. I have a patch near the marsh grass that has to get pulled up by my neighbor’s property. Seems like the marsh grass is spreading and filling in nicely, moving up to the embankment I built, then there is a 6 foot level ledge to create a mild terrace.

Then there is the more real section that is on the other side of the dead end. I will use the “cut-cut-cut” approach to deplete the Rye-Zomes, as they expend mucho energy trying to regrow. Eventually this is a long war of attrition and the more I cut the more I weaken the Knottweed.

Yesterday we bought a small Weber gas grill that has only two burners. Warranted for ten years. The size is small, and it goes with our downsized patio table and chairs that only seats six for intimate gatherings. Pretty much the patio along with the pergola creates an outdoor room that is tucked in between the Baby-Victorian and the garage. Anyways it is a nice space. The WiFi from in the house extends into the patio/pergola.

I encourage growth by watering every day. The Boxwoods have tender new leaves, the climbing roses are clearly growing, and the new more mature Lillac is already flowering.

I have a good relationship with my building inspector, and he is easy to work with. My GC is a woman, and pretty much she was getting all wound up, worried, and anxious. Pretty much I love my GC because she has a great team of licensed pro’s that don’t cheap-out. We are on the same page: “One and done.” My GC is a mover and shaker, but the woman-factor I can deal with.

”Maggie” is displaying new behavior, she is cleaning up her mess, and putting things away. We bought mucho totes from Home-Cheapo, and now she has assembled all this stuff she wants to sell in our Dead-End Sale. We have some connections where this could be like a pop-up sale of sorts.

The Japanese Maple was severely pruned back by about 6 feet right before we bought the house. Now displayed is this thickness in this cloud like formation. In a word spectacular, pretty much over the top and extraordinary in every way. Mucho crazy.

So the point I was trying to make in an earlier post is that we have experienced more than a decade of stimulus that was based on borrowed money, now we have inflation, and to dry up that supply of money interest rates are likely to go a lot higher than you ever imagined. “Get ready for some crazy,” I say.

Also know that the banks are buying gold (they are the smart money), (predictions are for gold to hit $3K) and it seems capitol is being hoarded getting prepared for a recession. In the seventies Volcker at the FED raised rates to 18% to kill double digit-inflation in the U.S. The recession that reset the economy was not a mild one.

Also I predict that houses still will get sold and prices will remain stable due to a supply shortage. I think it will be another time when mortgages will get assumed for people that have enough cash to pay out equity to the sellers. This was common in the seventies, where buyers assumed low interest mortgages of the sellers.

Pretty much money was hard to borrow, mortgages were expensive, and difficult to secure.

So imagine a new era where people have grown accustom to “free-money” low interest rates, and the switch is thrown to extraordinary high interest rates, anyone needing to roll-over debt is basically in trouble.

Not only households, but a lot of businesses and corporations borrowed lots of “free-money,” but that debt can no longer get “rolled-over.”

So pretty much a time bomb is ticking… unexplored ordinance… and one explosion could lead to triggering others.

In the past there were such things as “liar-loans” in the mortgage industry. Today they say extension of loans to people with bad credit has been used extensively in car sales. “Look out below,” I say. Perhaps not on the scale of 2007-2008, but basically the same thing… I anticipate an explosion sometime in the future in regards to auto loans.

BTW car and truck sales are (were) a big part of our economy. I think this sector will get hit mucho hard. Also know that automotive manufactures have been “double-ordering” electronic chips to avoid supply chain issues. This clearly is not sustainable and pretty much will cascade into another rather specialized sector. Clearly a bubble of sorts.

Anyways, I’m back to building my bunker… Be aware of future explosions… Booby-traps ahead…

Also know that inflation persisted into the 80’s. I remember COLA (Cost of Living Adjustments) that existed for several years in the early 80’s when I worked at Grumman. Remember “regression-to-the-mean.”

Cal
 
From cuttings last year the Knotweed seems weakened. Was able to pull out the stalks without needing a cutter, also the plants do not seem so well rooted. I was able to pull up some roots and ryezomes with the stalks.

I removed any roots and created a brush pile with the stalks. Looks like the marsh grass will expand and fill in some of the now vacant space.

So a full day of weeding, but satisfying. Pretty much I am restoring a wetland to a certain extent. Found another Praying Mantis cocoon, so now I have two.

Saturday is when the plumber and carpenter will team up and remediate the cut joist. Also the joists will be opened up to accommodate the ceiling mount air handlers for the mini-splits.

I know I have a boring life, but I am happy-happy.

I kinda remember that in 2003 that I bought my “Cheap Rolex” (Stainless Steel Submariner “No-Date) using a 24 month Zero APR offer. For me this is when the era of “Free-Money” began. I also used a “convenience check” that was a Zero APR offer to open a Margin Account at Scott Trade.

I also remember refinancing my student loans in 2005, at record low rates.

So the point I’m trying to establish is that Free-Money has been around a lot longer than a decade…

Cal
 
Wow, Looks like I might be going to Cortland Manor on Saturday, I'll see the famous Blue Mountains I hear so much about,
I hope there's a cute little town there where I could take some good pictures incase I get bored.
 
Range-rover said:
Wow, Looks like I might be going to Cortland Manor on Saturday, I'll see the famous Blue Mountains I hear so much about,
I hope there's a cute little town there where I could take some good pictures incase I get bored.
Click to expand...

Bob,

Cortlandt sprawls and includes many towns, including Cortland Manor. I go to Cortlandt Town Center which is where all the big box stores are including Home Cheapo.

The Blue Mountain Preserve is kinda hidden inland from the Hudson River and is on the very southern end of Peekskill. Pretty much not a lot to see because it is pretty much wilderness.

They say that Peekskill is the “Gateway to the Hudson Highlands” where the drama of the Hudson Valley, mountains and cliffs define an area of military importance. Lots of Revolutionary War history is here.

Most people would say that the “Gateway” begins at Bear Mountain, but I think it is really Blue Mountain, even though it is not really visible from the Hudson.

BTW the City of Peekskill is situated north of Blue Mountain, and the Bear Mountain Bridge to Bear Mountain is at the very northern end of Peekskill. Geographically to the east is a ridge, so Peekskill is a bowl of sorts, about 5 square miles, that has a population of around 25K.

As far as mountains go Bear Mountain has a view of Manhattan, but Blue Mountain Preserve has two abandoned stone ruins that were once fire station lookout post built by the Conservation Corps. Peekskill has old houses, a downtown that will remind you of Brooklyn, and is the cultural center for the larger sprawling township of Cortlandt.

In a way Peekskill is the “City” and Cortlandt with its towns that surround Peekskill are Peekskill’s suburbs.

Cal
 
Phil_F_NM said:
https://www.mesotheliomahope.com/pro...20mesothelioma.

You may want to take some of the chips from both your walls and ceiling to get tested for asbestos in order to make sure your house is safe for yourselves, children and grandchildren.

Phil Forrest
Click to expand...

Phil,

I did some preliminary research. It seems asbestos usage in plaster was most commonly used between 1942-1974, but was used between 1920-1990, in 1990 it was banned.

My house dates back to 1912, but I still want to and need to get the testing done. Three samples cost about $100.00 to get evaluated. Hopefully I might pre-date the usage, but I still want peace of mind.

Without testing I kinda know that I likely have lead paint, another hazard.

Cal
 
A report suggests a one-in-three chance of Stagflation.

I have a feeling though that the chance is more like 50-50. The Ukrainian War they say will shave 1% off of Global Growth, we have a slowing economy ( S&P 500 is down 12% for the year) with a 8.5% inflation rate, supply chain restraints persist, meanwhile China is in a lockdown mode, and we are still in a Pandemic.

Last month both Stocks and Bonds were in a sell-off.

Then the FED is “behind the curve.” I’m not so optimistic the FED can perform a complicated “Soft-Landing” meaning slow the economy enough to kill inflation, but not enough to cause a recession or two, especially with “aggressive” rate hikes. To me aggressive and soft are polar opposites. Kinda funny that Powell no longer deems inflation as “Transitory.”

BTW Powell is a Lawyer by profession and not an economist.

Lots of other risks like perhaps a Russian Default. Also because the FED is the first to raise rates, the U.S. Dollar has become strong, and this is mucho bad for developing countries that borrowed Dollar denominated loans so we have other default risks.

Domestically while not like the housing crisis with “Liar Loans” pretty much credit abuse exists in auto financing and while not at the same scale dollar wise a default risk on a big scale in a different way.

Quantitative Easing lowered long-term bonds by about 1%, but now reverse that and things get complicated with Qualitative Tightening.

The idea/purpose was to boost demand in a time of oversupply to avoid a deflationary spiral that added a 1%-3% GNP boost. Now try to unwind that: not so easy; kinda like putting the Gene back into the bottle.

In the late 70’s and early 80’s interest rates approached the rate of inflation, and then later exceeded inflation levels.

The use of “Free-Money” by households, businesses and corporations, can no longer be “rolled-over” into Zero APR offers, low interest rate loans, and bonds that offer low yields. This “floating debt” will be a MoFo to pay off for many.

Anyways I believe in “regression-to-the mean.”

When the FED starts selling the large scale assets it purchased and all the fixed income assets, I say “Look out below.”
Pretty much a bad time to be holding equities and bonds. The smart money started unloading last month. Banksters are buying gold bullion as a store of wealth. Paper assets (stock and bonds) are being unloaded and the asset classes to own are commodities and real estate that temper inflation.

Don’t forget that commodities are traded in U.S. Dollars, and future aggressive interest rate hikes will increase dollar strength.

Anyways lots of risk out there, and it is getting hard for me to see any other outcome. Revolving or floating debt will hurt a lot of people and businesses. The era of Free-Money is over. Time to pay-the piper.

Cal
 
A bad sell-off in the markets today. Yesterday’s big rally was a head fake.

Audi S5 in 2012 was the last year where it had a naturally aspirated V-8. Saw one the other day when gassing up. 350 HP, 19 inch wheels, and a sporty suspension, in a car slightly bigger than my A4. Current models have a turbo’s V-6, but from owners that have the V-8 it seems the old adage is true: no replacement for displacement.

Mowed the lawn today. Know that I use a no-gas push mower that is a bit of a workout.

Also was be a good grand parent today and we went to Creature Junior’s school to celebrate her birthday at lunch Time. Set up a Piñata. Anyways this was mucho important to the now eight year old. It was a big deal.

Life is kinda relaxed, even though it is currently messy.

Cal
 
We have some large Rhoda-den-drums on the dead-end side of the house, and they are large enough that birds nest in them. It seems the same pair of mating Robins nest here every year. Anyways good to see them.

The Japanese Red Maple thickened to the extent that the canopy could not be any thicker. About 6 feet of tree was pruned back when the Baby-Victorian was put up for sale. The tree is likely a hundred years old and at the base the trunk is about 24 inches in girth, and likely the thickest trunk I have ever seen on a Japanese Maple. Because the tree is so old it displays all these wart like growths called “Witches-Brooms” that are prized for grafting into Bonsai.

Anyways the tree is rather remarkable in many ways. The canopy is like a dense red cloud and it hovers just outside the turret room that is presently “Maggie’s” office that is filled with antique Victorian furnishings.

Pretty much the kitchen is nearing a break-point where things will speed up after the plumbing inspection. Glamping has not been fun. Saturday the carpenter and plumber will fix the joist that was hacked by sistering in the adjoining joists. Also additional width/spacing for the mini-split air handlers. Effectively we will have central HVAC on the first floor.

Lots of planning and an approach of “one and done” was applied to spend our money once. Had to train Maggie not to cheap-out, not to rush, and to be patient.

The kitchen job spilled over to the dining room, and pretty much after this the first floor will be kinda built out and done other than paint and final decorations. The charm of the old house is exaggerated by period correct furnishings, and because the house has 40 windows the golden hours actually illuminates the interior. Photographically the entire house is a a great backdrop with a lot of preserved history.

Many old houses have been gut renovated, or opened up like on the TV shows, but our old house displays remarkable amounts of original detail like quarter sawn heart pine floors, pocket doors, stained glass… From the street it is clear that this tiny house is the oldest and it looks mighty cute from the street.

The location on the outskirts of the city at the very edge is ideal with the bonus that the 1500 acre wilderness/preserve of Blue Mountain about 2 1/2 blocks away. In fact Dickey Brook that drains a series of ponds in the preserve runs past our back-backyard, yet we are not so far from NYC, about an hour’s train ride to Grand Central.

I looked at the availability of used Audi’s at Manhattan Audi: about 6 cars listed. Use to be 6 pages of cars available. No doubt that I bought my 2015 A4 with 16K miles just in time before they knew there was a car shortage. We also were fortunate to have bought the house remarkably cheap before the housing shortage was recognized.

Another good thing that happened as a result of the pandemic was that I retired early. I also blame Covid for losing at least 10 pounds.

I think Snarky Joe is right, I’m the kinda guy that always seems to land on his feet, even though I’m kinda crazy and reckless at times. Pretty remarkable how I ended up in such a great space. June is almost here and then my retirement kinda comes to an end where I will begin a new career as a model at the age of 64. How crazy is that? I was just minding my own business…

Yesterday we stopped at OshKosh to buy baby boy clothes for the grandson that has not been born yet. They had a big sale with some items 50%-60% off. I bought some skinny leg hipster jeans so the baby will look like he comes from Brooklyn.

Anyways it seems unlike Creature Junior who was a small baby, that the grandson looks to be a big baby and perhaps a bruiser.

I have to get the back-backyard in shape for a baby-shower sometime this summer.

Cal
 
After a doctor’s appointment (maintenance) we decided to drive around and we headed 20 miles north to Newburgh which is across a bridge from Beacon. We visited our antique haunts and the store called “House Parts” looking for vintage doors and mirrors.

We ended up in Beacon to browse and have an early dinner. We ended up driving to see a house that was being constructed on a property we were once interested in. Someone tore down the old house and built an ugly monster of a house that is plain fugly.

The original old house was close to the road, a one way in one way out long dead end on the edge of the city of Beacon. It was a small house, but because it was close to the road the backyard was massive and encompassed almost all of the 1/2 acre that bordered on state land.

The seller was trying to be greedy, and in the end he sold it way below his asking price. Someone with deep pockets bought it for the 1/2 acre, but the house they built has no curb appeal and is just mucho ugly. Very sad how a small old house was replaced by a monster.

So pretty much it was an afternoon vacation. The grey weather made for a lack of traffic, and the driving was pleasant.

I stand corrected. When we bought the Baby-Victorian houses were in short supply, but the B-V because it needed work and was kinda odd went unloved. Now with some of the work we performed it would be now considered a very cute house with many desirable assets and value added. “Maggie” reminded me of the crappy homes we were shown that were the bottom of the barrel.

The scale of the property suits me well, and I would not want a bigger house.

Anyways “Maggie” is learning how to relax and not be so busy.

Have to fill out some paperwork for the modeling gig. June is not so far away.

Calvin-August
 
It is a cold very late spring. It s May and the temperatures can still be in the 40’s. Also instead of April showers they seem to happen in May. Very odd…

The construction follows along and is now progressing slowly in smaller increments. Kinda now feels like slow motion, as life is put on hold. Seems like everything is disrupted: the weather; the kitchen. Anyways it is like pandemic delays are amplified.

“Maggie” wants me to center the 4x16 foot raised bed that I have set up on the back side of the garage, meaning I have to move the assembly over about 2 feet.

I have a walkway to design from a sidewalk to the patio. Dad to move the Lillac I just planted to make way for a path. Need rebar and to drill holes to anchor the raised bed and also some concrete or stone blocks for the walkway.

Mother’s Day kinda kills Sunday. I hate these institutionalized holidays. More routine, ritual, and blatant consumerism. In a way a version of invasion of privacy.

Not much time for biking or guitar playing lately. The weather has been cool and grey. Today life seems a bit odd. I think we needed a break yesterday.

Cal
 
Good Afternoon Devil Cal,

Progress with the Norma Handy.
4x5 SInar Norma Handy by Nokton48, on Flickr

Norma Handy gets 4 inch Deep Yellow Wratten behind by Nokton48, on Flickr
  • Here my front end of the Sinar Norma Handy homemade camera, now it gets a 4" Kodak Wratten Deep Yellow Gelatin Filter, which I gaffer taped to the rear of the original Norma 65mm F8 factory conical mount board with correct helical. I prefer the colored filter inside the body (behind the lens) rather than another glass filter, in front of the Schneider 65mm F8 Center Filter. Going through two pieces of glass in front is asking for problems with reflections. Mucho better this way.
 
Nokton48 said:
Good Afternoon Devil Cal,

Progress with the Norma Handy. An in your face camera

4x5 SInar Norma Handy by Nokton48, on Flickr

Norma Handy gets 4 inch Deep Yellow Wratten behind by Nokton48, on Flickr
  • Here my front end of the Sinar Norma Handy homemade camera, now it gets a 4" Kodak Wratten Deep Yellow Gelatin Filter, which I gaffer taped to the rear of the original Norma 65mm F8 factory conical mount board with correct helical. I prefer the colored filter inside the body (behind the lens) rather than another glass filter, in front of the Schneider 65mm F8 Center Filter. Going through two pieces of glass in front is asking for problems with reflections. Mucho better this way.
Click to expand...

Dan,

Love the stack of Grafmatics. Mucho evil.

Your Handy is a lot like my “Devil Christian.” I too have a SA 90/F8.0. I also have the square Linhof hood which is pure evil.

Cal
 
The bathroom was out of service this morning, and the morning coffee was hurting me. LOL.

Some progress and moving forward. Hopefully more work gets done next week. I want things to speed up.

Been lurking in a thread about the IBIS Exie, and I’m still very excited about this bike.

I wonder about how to best utilize my old retro bikes and how to repurpose them when I get an Exie, as the Exie kinda supplants my mountain bikes as mucho retro and so thrown back into obsolescence.

The Ti IBIS could be repurposed as somewhat a gravel bike, even though it is a mountain bike, if set up as a rigid. I also love it as a 63.59 gear inch single speed for urban use. Kinda makes a statement though of overkill. Definitely a luxury bike that is unneeded.

An urban Newsboy is still a cool bike, and the steel IBIS can remain a trials bike with a 30 inch gear, bash guard, and sturdy straight 16 gauge wheels.

The Ti Basso Road can be made into a 1x9 using an 11-34T XTR cassettte for low gearing, or I can update to a 2x9 road bike. If needed I have mucho Dura-Ace cassettes to play with gearing. I can do 12-21T, 12-23T, or 12-25T in 9 speed, plus I have spare cogs…

So I daydream…

Cal
 
Mother’s Day dinning, and the delayed party for Creature Junior who is now eight.

At a nursery yesterday I saw some Rodeadendrums that were a fraction of the size of our mature bushes: $300.00 each. Kinda crazy money, but I’m mucho glad for all the mature plantings we have.

I am so in love with our Baby-Victorian that if I won the lottery pretty much I would keep this tiny house, and also pretty much it would stand pat in our plans for improvements, the only thing that would be added would be a lap pool with a tiny cabana.

I also would just keep driving my Audi A4 until it dies. For me it is still a trophy car and well earned. Almost has 25K miles on it now and its a 2015. Will own it two years in December, and when I bought it she had only 16K miles. I suspect it more or less was parked in a garage in the Hampton for 7 years.

I would put some money on the side though for something crazy to drive. I figure the longer I wait the more things will advance. Not so different than with my mountain bikes which I deem as obsolete. Anyways I could perceivably be driving the A4 two decades from now because I drive so little and I baby the car. Playfully this will be an experiment, and perhaps in 2040 the A4 will stand out as a classic car being 25 years old. Anyways that is my intent.

Cheap-cheap-cheap, but meanwhile I hope to have money in the bank for an electric Audi, perhaps a RS 5 or something kinda crazy.

Anyways, because of supply shortages and dealer preferences It seems that my local IBIS dealer is predicting that Exie frames will be offered alone for the first time. This would allow for a full custom build. A spec bike in my size (large) weighs 24.4 pounds without pedals, but because I only weigh about 145 pounds I could build out the bike to be 22-23 pounds.

My dealer has parts stockpiled…

This is mucho crazy for a full suspension bike. I imagine price to be about $13K and more than the price of a Ducati Monster. How crazy is that?

Cal
 
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