New York August NYC Meet-Up 2021

Calzone said:
I blame the Internet for this. In a profound talk the over use of Autism as a diagnosis came up, and in conversation the Internet was kinda blamed by us as the reason why a generation has lost the ability to read social cues, facial expressions, and body language. Think about how people interact less today then in decades past, and then compound that with social distancing that has been going on for 4-years due to Covid.

So is it the Internet, Covid, a world of less social interaction? To me Autism should not be confused with the new culture of a lack of social awareness that is surrounding and permeating society and the world. I think somehow some of our humanity has been lost.

To further all this I also say, “The world would be a better place without cell phones.” The Internet is taken yet another step further to permeate our lives: we can carry the Internet in our pocket.

Cars today are of safer design and are safer due to government mandates and regulations. Of course regulations have made costs go up. “The money has to come from somewhere,” I say.

But fatalities are up due to texting and distracted driving. This is a very serious problem and IMHO is about as serious a problem as Drunk Driving.

So know that I only have a “Dumb” flip phone, and I don’t text. This annoys people… Also I limit my time on the Internet because I want to avoid the anxious and crazy behaviors that I believe being wired to the Internet causes: basically “Maggie-Disease.”

So everyone now knows why I consider myself a lazy slacker and why I have a go with the flow mentality. I have to balance pretty much just the opposite. This juggling is not easy, but great project management skills have evolved further than when I worked at Grumman and at Brookhaven National Labs. At Brookhaven for me it was a pretty big construction project involving crews of people.

Know that managing Maggie is harder.

Anyways perhaps I’m not so smart, and perhaps my rants which at times present profound insights that actually make sense when the rest of the world does not make any sense at all is just being old school and not having been infected with “Maggie-Disease.”

My training in Journalism (Masters degree and a year of TV Broadcast Journalism experience) will state the obvious, the news on the Internet is dumbed down, simplified, has less depth, and specifically is a shorter form to deal with and promote shorter and shorter attention spans.

Around Grand Central I can no longer buy the Wall Street Journal in a hard copy, or The New York Times in hard copy for more in depth reporting.

Anyways call me old school, but the spread of the over diagnoses of Autism, Maggie-Disease, and lots of bad kinda crazy thinking or lack of it is a product of our time.

Old school works for me, but also it seems I get projected onto me that somehow I am missing out by being old school. In a ways I’m beginning to feel more the loner, not because I am socially distant or don’t participate in social media other than this embedded blog within this limited forum, but because my thinking and logic is becoming isolated. In this fashion I feel like I’m an “Outsider.”

Basically I’m a true outsider to the culture that has permeated that surrounds me. I am reminded of the film “Omega Man” and basically I’m Charlton Heston.

Cal
Click to expand...
That is very interesting as I also have noticed behavioral patters that are more impatient and anxious, as well as more socially awkward. Not really autism, but more on an ADHD pattern.
"I'm getting along some quide ADHD people" and even commented it. One of my recent friends is constantly on the phone and switching thought to thought. It can be exhausting to interact with them this way because there isn't a flow to it.
On a deep conversation, with a friend that became "too busy" and overwhelmed by work, I recall he was blaming at "perhaps I have ADHD". Our friendship devolved into an impossibility to meet up for a simple catch up because he is too exhausted to interact.
To that I saw that there is a disconnect and lack of accountability linked to the hyperconnected environment.

I recall when we were in the "death march" back when I visited NYC, that we talked with a construction foreman and this was the same topic. The small talk was way smoother than I was used to seeing (from a millenial environment). I would say, don't feel so much FOMO for being "old school".

Also, algorithms end up priming you and "tailoring" the environment. I recently noticed because Instagram, which I only use to keep up with some film community folks, now is pushing me content from 20 year old kid influencers. "What value does this bring to me?" This week I survived a round of layoffs and the internet environment just amplified the event, more than the initial feelings were. If not aware, it does become an echo chamber.

In a more positive light, I genuinely like socializing and have an interest in people and the networks around some activities; up to the point that I have volunteered at a local cultural association; Some people are calling me gifted and having a great memory but rather I am perhaps noticing that it's my curiosity and interest driving this.
Interestingly, I do have quite a good oversight of 2-3 different networks plus I am using internet to augment it, as a calendar of events and network mapper. Essentally interacting as old school did.
But reading your thoughts, I am thinking that this ability I possess might be more linked to NOT having fallen into this hyperconnectivity impatience?
 
Prest_400 said:
That is very interesting as I also have noticed behavioral patters that are more impatient and anxious, as well as more socially awkward. Not really autism, but more on an ADHD pattern.
"I'm getting along some quide ADHD people" and even commented it. One of my recent friends is constantly on the phone and switching thought to thought. It can be exhausting to interact with them this way because there isn't a flow to it.
On a deep conversation, with a friend that became "too busy" and overwhelmed by work, I recall he was blaming at "perhaps I have ADHD". Our friendship devolved into an impossibility to meet up for a simple catch up because he is too exhausted to interact.
To that I saw that there is a disconnect and lack of accountability linked to the hyperconnected environment.

I recall when we were in the "death march" back when I visited NYC, that we talked with a construction foreman and this was the same topic. The small talk was way smoother than I was used to seeing (from a millenial environment). I would say, don't feel so much FOMO for being "old school".

Also, algorithms end up priming you and "tailoring" the environment. I recently noticed because Instagram, which I only use to keep up with some film community folks, now is pushing me content from 20 year old kid influencers. "What value does this bring to me?" This week I survived a round of layoffs and the internet environment just amplified the event, more than the initial feelings were. If not aware, it does become an echo chamber.

In a more positive light, I genuinely like socializing and have an interest in people and the networks around some activities; up to the point that I have volunteered at a local cultural association; Some people are calling me gifted and having a great memory but rather I am perhaps noticing that it's my curiosity and interest driving this.
Interestingly, I do have quite a good oversight of 2-3 different networks plus I am using internet to augment it, as a calendar of events and network mapper. Essentally interacting as old school did.
But reading your thoughts, I am thinking that this ability I possess might be more linked to NOT having fallen into this hyperconnectivity impatience?
Click to expand...

Jorde,

Do you feel the isolation I speak of?

I guess what I’m saying is that we are the exceptions to the norm it seems.

Cal
 
Kind of a crazy day.

A plumber came early to only move a gas line and shorten it to make it easy to fully tuck in the gas stove so it sits right against a wall.

I went to Citibank and made a big cash withdrawal to buy the 1966 Chevy C10. When I called Danny, the owner, he was handling an emergency, but he said he would call later.

In the mid afternoon it rained hard. It was a torrent, and I had rescheduled the pickup of the Arm-War. Pretty much I figured out how to move it by removing the base so it could fit out the doorways. Route 9 was closed at one point due to flooding.

Around 5:00 the rain stopped and Danny called. The truck would be delivered in about an hour. Pretty much I have a “Barn Find,” a vehicle in original OEM condition that was not basically changed from when it came from the factory, except for the new gas tank relocated below the bed.

What was rude is like “Maggie” I discovered the truck is bigger than I remembered. The nose sticks into the street when parked in my short driveway. Then my neighbor mentioned it might fit in the garage. I measured, it will fit, but the fit is very-very tight.

The three speed on the steering column is a new challenge to master. Pretty awkward in use.

My neighbor mentioned that I likely need to add a lead additive when I gas up. John also gave me a set of historical New York plates that are period correct. He says I can adopt thes plates because they were never assigned to any vehicle.

I figured out I will use BF Goodrich T/A’s as my choice of tires. Also the lack of power steering required some upper body strength.

I’m looking into disc brake conversion kits. Of particular interest are Wilwood brakes. A set of 2 1/2 Wilwood drop spindles within the stock springs would require dropping the rear 4 inches to have the C10 to sit level to make the truck more car like. A Wilwood Master cylinder would allow me to adjust the proportioning valve to balance the new front brakes with the OEM rear drum brakes. Later adding a set of Wilwood rear brakes would be EZ-PZ.

These brakes would be future proof if I ever go LT-1 (350 V-8).

Last night I saw first a skunk, and later a Coyote.

Cal
 
Cal, the fix for the lack of leaded gas is pulling the heads and having Stellite valve seat inserts installed. Lead was in gas to stop the valves from beating the valve seats to death.
 
MrFujicaman said:
Cal, the fix for the lack of leaded gas is pulling the heads and having Stellite valve seat inserts installed. Lead was in gas to stop the valves from beating the valve seats to death.
Click to expand...

MFM,

Thanks for the help. I once pulled a head on a 1960 Ford Falcon to get a valve job performed by a shop. Only have to pull one head.

I have a title that has an issue date of 11/20/2009 and the mileage back then was 145,801. Currently the odometer reads 60K.

The condition of this truck is remarkable considering that it has over a quarter million miles.

I do not know if this is the second or third engine. The engine smokes, so it might be better to replace it with something fresher. It has a 250 Cubic Inch I-6. Anyways I’m going to set it up as a cruiser. It won’t get “slammed” or made into any crazy high powered truck.

I checked the tires. The rear pair are 215/75/15 that are dry rotted. The fronts are lower profile 255/60/15 (BFG T/A). Kinda backwards where the wider pair of tires should be on the rear, also the mucho wide tires without power steering is a tough workout.

I figure the shop that did all the suspension reversed the front and rear tires. Anyways they all need to be replaced with a matched set. I think I will go with BFG T/A’s 225/60/15 front, and 245/60/15 rear. Maybe I’ll do 215/60 up front and 255/60/15 rear for easier steering.

The truck barely fits in my mucho short driveway, and parking it in the garage is a muy tight fit.

I will have to do some maintenance and see the good the bad and the ugly.

I washed the truck today and it cleaned up nice. The wood bed is trashed and needs to be replace, but the aftermarket has pine and oak kits, as well as steel and stainless steel bed rails. Unfortunately when they installed the under bed gas tank they cut though some of the bed rails because the wood was rotted anyways.

I’m new to three on a tree column shifting. Another reason why this truck will be a cruiser.

A busy day off. Went to the Stormville airport flea market. Bought a $15.00 boxed router jig for “box-joints.” Then we went to an antique center in Hopewell Junction, then to the flea market in Beacon where I found some cool old retro handles for the powder room’s pocket door.

Had to get home because the “Creature” and “Creature Junior” the grand daughter were coming over for dinner.

After dinner is when I washed the truck. I also flushed a lot of dirt off the chassis and wheel wells.

So I need a set of tires (BFG T/A). I’ll use the OEM original white steel narrow 6 1/2 inch retro rims with the dog bowl hub caps that are period correct. No need to spend money on rims. Cheap-cheap-cheap…

I’m looking into putting a Wilwood disc brake conversion with 2 1/2 inch drop spindles to lower the truck. The rear will have to be dropped 4 inches to level the truck. Understand that the truck OEM has a 2 inch rake front to back. I’ll use the stock springs up front, and separately a set of springs were in the bed of the truck that are new, I suspect they are to drop the rear 4 inches.

Anyways the C-10 will be a resto-mod, not slammed, but slightly lower to be more car like. 1966 C10 is a first gen C10, and they came with independent coil spring suspension for a car like ride. Lowering the C10 makes it even more car like.

Ideally I’d love to get a 302 Jimmy (GMC) inline six. High torque and kinda bombproof. No need for a V-8, remember its going to be a cruiser.

Cal
 
MrFujicaman said:
Cal, the fix for the lack of leaded gas is pulling the heads and having Stellite valve seat inserts installed. Lead was in gas to stop the valves from beating the valve seats to death.
Click to expand...

MFM,

Not sure if the valve seats are already beat. After warm up, at idle, the exhaust pulses instead of having a steady blow. This puffing is a sign of needing a valve job. Also might need a lifter adjustment. Too much lash also adds “puffing” to the exhaust.

Cal
 
Calzone said:
Jorde,

Do you feel the isolation I speak of?

I guess what I’m saying is that we are the exceptions to the norm it seems.

Cal
Click to expand...

I think so, and agree. There is this author I recently discovered, Cal Newport, that coined the term "Hyperactive Hivemind". Even if work related, society has become too instant, expecting and with a flash short attention span.
Noting more how the algorithms in Social media changed. I am not the one to say my use of it is smart, but not allowing it to control me.

Looking forward to some quiet summer time and spending some quality photographic time aka darkroom.

A bit related, having survived this layoff I have seen how people are affected by it. I did end up exhausted last week but now am much better, I guess it's about having "different baskets" and a personal purpose out of your day job.

And about the economic discussion I was shared the memo of a VC firm that has some very interesting insights. No more free money! Here it is:
https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Adapting_to_Endure_May_2022.pdf
 
Inline 6 is the way to go. 7 main bearings, usually a lot of torque, so you can pull the stumps out of the ground and tow when you need, but also use torque over horsepower when you need to move. It's not a race truck, so a 6cyl powerplant is perfect. There is a reason that I-6 engines are still the standard used in "airport "yellow gear" to move aircraft and materials.
We need to see some photos!

Phil Forrest
 
Phil_F_NM said:
Inline 6 is the way to go. 7 main bearings, usually a lot of torque, so you can pull the stumps out of the ground and tow when you need, but also use torque over horsepower when you need to move. It's not a race truck, so a 6cyl powerplant is perfect. There is a reason that I-6 engines are still the standard used in "airport "yellow gear" to move aircraft and materials.
We need to see some photos!

Phil Forrest
Click to expand...

Phil,

PM me your private e-mail. I tried to have someone post them, but there were difficulties.

The truck is too big for my driveway, the nose sticks out into the dead end.

I was nervous that it might not fit in the garage. It will fit but a mighty tight fit.

I love I-6’s. Low RPM redline and torque peaks around 1600 RPM. Engines last a long time.

I think I will follow MFM’s advice and pull the head to get a valve job and for the mod for unleaded gas.

I’m respecting the three on the tree, the inline 6, and pretty much will be setting this truck up as a cruiser.

I want to retain the steel narrow/skinny rims and use the dog bowl hub caps for the retro look.

No power steering either so a 225 width on a front tire is about the upper limit. On the rear I’ll go 245 or 255 width.

For safety I want to match the tire brand on all 4 wheels. A pair of tires are dry rotted…

”Maggie” insists that I get the front drum brakes converted to disc. I’m cool with that. Eventually I’ll get disc in the rear.

Most disc conversions use a 2 1/2 inch drop spindle. The C10 from the factory has a 2 inch rake front to back, so a 2/4 will happen when I get the disc brakes.

Know that I think the pair of uninstalled springs are for the 4 inch drop on the rear, and also came with the truck are a set of uninstalled KYB gas shocks. Seems like they were about to do the disc conversion.

The truck has new bushings, ball joints, and everything steering new.

The wood in the bed is rotted out. I need one of those kits to replace the wood bed. Only non OEM mod is the below bed gas tank.

Cal
 
Prest_400 said:
I think so, and agree. There is this author I recently discovered, Cal Newport, that coined the term "Hyperactive Hivemind". Even if work related, society has become too instant, expecting and with a flash short attention span.
Noting more how the algorithms in Social media changed. I am not the one to say my use of it is smart, but not allowing it to control me.

Looking forward to some quiet summer time and spending some quality photographic time aka darkroom.

A bit related, having survived this layoff I have seen how people are affected by it. I did end up exhausted last week but now am much better, I guess it's about having "different baskets" and a personal purpose out of your day job.

And about the economic discussion I was shared the memo of a VC firm that has some very interesting insights. No more free money! Here it is:
https://content.fortune.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Adapting_to_Endure_May_2022.pdf
Click to expand...

Jorde,

Thanks for the link.

I started to read the over 50 pages, but tomorrow is another day.

One point of contention though is that the era of “free-money” (low interest rates) has been a very-very long time.

Back in 2003 I bought my Rolex (Cheap Rolex Submariner “No-Date) using a two year zero APR offer. The monthly payments were just under $150.00 a month. I ended up playing off the watch in less than a year using my tax return because I was both greedy and generous.

Basically I inquired if that zero APR program continued because I wanted to buy “Maggie” an expensive watch with free money. Then I got even more greedy and bought my Panerai using another zero APR offer. Then after that I bought Maggie another Cartier with free-money.

It was also in 2003 that I wrote a “Convenience check” from a credit card company to Scottsdale to open a Margin Account where I could borrow even more money to multiply my gains and loses.

The time of free money was a time to buy treasures and assets of enduring value. Perhaps now is the time to not buy or accumulate.

Looking forward to reading the full report.

Cal
 
Geez.. and I think I'm splurging when I buy myself a $60 Rolex Submariner knock-off !

Cal, if any of the clients the agent lines up for you and Maggie wants you two posed with the truck-charge em' a "prop fee" for it.
 
MrFujicaman said:
Geez.. and I think I'm splurging when I buy myself a $60 Rolex Submariner knock-off !

Cal, if any of the clients the agent lines up for you and Maggie wants you two posed with the truck-charge em' a "prop fee" for it.
Click to expand...

MFM,

Kinda funny, I just read a report about used cars as investments because of the rate of return. Interest rate hikes, the end of “free money” (Zero or no interest loans), compounded by chip shortages.

Don’t tell “Maggie” but I see a good ROI (Return On Investment) with this truck, and in a way it is a hedge against inflation and a “hard-asset” that holds value. On top of that it is a collectible and of a finite quantity like a commodity. Bonus is its remarkable condition.

I think If I repair/replace the wooden bed and bed rails that I could easily get all my money back, including the cost of the bed kit. Any resto-mod would be in that direction of added value, but also maintain a healthy ROI. Pretty much I want to be able to get my money back.

A guitar dealer named Gary taught me a powerful lesson about condition, rarity, and price. Gary only dealt with vintage guitars, but out of all dealers he cherry picked and had either guitars that were exclusive because of original condition (clean) or rare because they were unusual and had “value added.”

When negotiating price Gary always stood firm, and he would say, “If you can find a cleaner guitar just as rare at a better price you should buy it.” Know that Gary not only had the balls to stand firm, but he kinda had cornered the market as far as quality and rarity.

The value added to his truck is that it is basically OEM plus it has some of the cool options. The step bumper is one of them, the gauge package is another, and the coolest is the half leaf spring for hauling to dampen the inherent bounce of a coil spring when carrying a load.

I could see someone paying a premium for a truck that is very close to original, and that any mod could be undone so it could be restored easily to OEM.

Currently short beds command more money, but I speculate that the long bed at some point will have its day. Then there is a possibility of trading… I also think long-term, not a bad thing to own and use a 1966 C10 for the decades ahead, but know that in the end I might be able to get all my money back or even profit. Lots of speculation here…

*********************

In the past we were solicited to do content for a European luxury car brand that also makes commercial trucks. This was pitched and managed by a Madison Avenue Agency, but they offered us too little money. On top of that they wanted us to be responsible for a $100K luxury vehicle for a weekend in NYC. There was a consent form that basically was: we can sue you; but you can’t sue us.

Pretty much this international company and Madison Ave. agency had very deep pockets, but they preyed upon influencers who would be willing to do small jobs for no pay.

At our level we no longer play that game. Know that our agent is hooked up with some Euro luxury car brands. Also some luxury watch brands.

Cal
 
I dug into the forensics on the 1966 Chevy C10. It has “California Mirrors,” is a long bed, was ordered with the larger 11 inch clutch for HD use, and also has the single half leaf overload spring.

Another interesting option is the “Step-Bumper.”

The odometer reads 60,841 miles which is believable, but the title that dates to11/2009 indicates 145,801 miles.

I don’t believe the mileage on the title, and it is as if someone either made a typo or added a extra digit to make six figures. Pretty doubtful that this truck would have over a quarter million miles and be in “Barn Find” condition.

So some obsessive thinking makes me wonder if this C10 was ordered to be a RV camper. The options kinda support my idea. Also if an RV it would explain the muy low mileage.

Anyways 60K original miles is not only believable, but it is supported by the remarkable condition of the truck. Remember this C10 is 56 years old.

Furthermore the Pennsylvania DOT sticker dated back to 2007, so basically the C10 has not been on the road in the past 15 years.

I’m in the process of removing the seat cover. I figure the factory OEM original seat underneath will tell me the truth: 60K or plus 250K. Anyways everything looks OEM correct and original. Not so likely with plus 250K miles.

So basically I believe this C10 was a RV/camper that saw modest use.

I also think MFM is correct, unleaded gas likely trashed the cyclinder head.

I kinda like that the engine is a 250 Ci inline six, high torque, low RPM, and not a guzzler works in a cruiser.

Cal
 
Bathroom (powder room) got floor tile today. Another coat of spackle.

Been over 8 weeks, but things look great and I see a really nice kitchen emerging.

Cal
 
Prest_400 said:
I think so, and agree. There is this author I recently discovered, Cal Newport, that coined the term "Hyperactive Hivemind". Even if work related, society has become too instant, expecting and with a flash short attention span.
Noting more how the algorithms in Social media changed. I am not the one to say my use of it is smart, but not allowing it to control me.

Looking forward to some quiet summer time and spending some quality photographic time aka darkroom.

A bit related, having survived this layoff I have seen how people are affected by it. I did end up exhausted last week but now am much better, I guess it's about having "different baskets" and a personal purpose out of your day job.

And about the economic discussion I was shared the memo of a VC firm that has some very interesting insights. No more free money! Here it is:
https://content.fortune.com/wp-conte...e_May_2022.pdf
Click to expand...

Jorde,

After mowing the front and side yard, and cleaning out the garage I finally had the opportunity to read through the report.

I don’t think credit was given to the free-money policy that existed before the pandemic. This free-money even preceded Donald Trump and also includes George W. Bush, and President Obama. Know that tax cuts were issued by President Bush and President Trump even though the economy did not need or require stimulus. The results from Bush and Trump were higher deficits. Obama created his own concentrated inflation with Obama Care and inflating health care costs. Perhaps an unintended consequence, but for decades big deficits.

So I spread the blame to be fair. I’m particularly annoyed by some of the Donald Trump Tariffs. Fact is we get 25% of our lumber from Canada and imposed was a 20% tariff on lumber. In particular the Canadian cedar pergola, as a finished Canadian wood product had a 25% tariff.

Back in 1928 tariffs lead to the Great Depression as an unintended consequence. Ever wonder why housing got so inflated and how this created shortages? Anyways tariffs are a dumb idea and history is repeating itself.

Anyways the report kinda misses the two decades that precedes the stimulus for the pandemic. IMHO 2000, and 2007-2008 were were down played, while the pandemic was kinda played up. I do get the picture though of how asset prices got bloated. Kinda like when a bucket that is getting filled suddenly overflows into a spill.

So capitol becomes expensive and can’t be wasted when an era of capitol consumption ends. Belt tightening happens as capitol gets diverted. In households the money has to come from somewhere, so when energy costs eat away income disposable income becomes diminished, and for certain families food consumption decreases.

The same holds true for businesses if they want to survive.

My takeaway is “durability”should be reinforced in both good times and bad. Why should a company use free money and waste it. I say this because productivity kinda stayed stagnant and really did not increase.

Some of the language led me into my own inspirational development of a “Catch Phrase:” Courage is a decision; and Growth is choice.

Another thought is concentrate on investments in the future, and have a future focus. Again should every individual and every business consider this all the time, in good times or bad?

Also the platform of preserving cash for survival, should that be an everyday thought?

Anyways with inflation, for me it is not about preserving cash as it is about preserving wealth. Many ways that is why I like “hard-assets.”

Today I called my accountant. I have him the update that I have a gig and will be un-retiring with the modeling opportunities. Gave him the heads up on maybe becoming a LLC or a C-Corp. Also will get paid via my agent directly into my bank account without any with holdings.

I mentioned buying the 1966 Chevy C10, and his response was, “Did you buy it as an investment?”

Yes and no. Kinda capitol goods, but investment also.

Anyways for survival, for profit, for business, for fun, for status, for utility… I’ll throw investment in there.

I only put 9K miles on the Audi in the year and a half I have owned it. Pretty much 6K miles a year. At this rate it seems plausible that I could be driving the Audi 20 years from now. Remember the Audi I bought with 16K miles on the odometer, and now it only has 25K miles. It is a 2015.

So I own a new old Audi, and now a new old Chevy C10.

I guess I’m a “Value” investor. Never-ever bought a new car, and I mostly buy and consume retro stuff that more or less is undervalued that I happen to buy cheap.

The house upgrades and remodeling have value added to an old house that cost little money. Pretty much I don’t waste money, but corporations cycle between growth and value.

In a ways I too am a growth investor. I speculate, do R&D, and perform Capitol Expenditures. My difference though is for self sufficiency.

Anyways, 22 years is a long period of free money, and if you believe in regression-to-the-mean and the laws of statistics we could have a very slow period in economic history that could last decades.

The exception though that would change my view would be a World War.

Cal
 
Austintatious said:
Some more evidence of slowing down.

https://archive.ph/YYUqh
Click to expand...

Austin,

When I shop I buy stuff on sale, or good deals that are too hard to walk away from. Also I compound my savings by bulking up. Hoarding is a great thing. I don’t buy stuff unless I really need it otherwise.

The thing with housing is that for a decade we underbuilt, and I think it will take about a decade to eliminate the housing shortage. In housing I still see a shortage that will take mucho time to eliminate, meanwhile housing prices likely will go sideways for a while to form a “base.”

Also with 30 year interest rates north of 5%, I don’t see why home owners like me that locked in record low rates under 3% on a 30 year selling. The reason being is that record low interest rates will be gone, and any new mortgage will be more costly.

If inflation gets crazy and interest rates go way high we could see people buying homes by offering cash for equity and buyers assuming low rate mortgages like they did in the seventies.

The Trump tariffs on Canadian lumber surely inflates the cost of new housing. The money has to come from somewhere.

BTW the 10x10 Canadian cedar pergola manufactured in Canada was crazy expensive.

I see high energy prices also slowing down the economy. Remember 4 out of 5 recessions are caused by energy prices. I paid $5.59 a gallon for Mobil Premium. Diesel is over $6.00 a gallon. I suspect that the high energy prices will slow down the economy more starting in the fall when heating season begins.

With the war in the Ukraine, food prices will be high.

Cal
 
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