Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The average family is $2100.00 poorer suddenly. This is an estimated cost of the tariffs. Then consider how many people live paycheck to paycheck.
As I say, “The money has to come from somewhere…”
Another number is that our GDP will come down one percentage point. In this report they don’t expect a recession this year.
I guess most American families don’t count.
Consumption surely will be depressed. Will there be a crash landing, maybe not, but if you do the math $2.1K times an average American family is mucho money and surely is meaningful, and I think more meaningful than what many economists are discounting.
I won’t be surprised by a surprise that is not being seen by economists.
Cal
POST SCRIPT: In the report cited above they only expect a 1% increase in inflation.
As I say, “The money has to come from somewhere…”
Another number is that our GDP will come down one percentage point. In this report they don’t expect a recession this year.
I guess most American families don’t count.
Consumption surely will be depressed. Will there be a crash landing, maybe not, but if you do the math $2.1K times an average American family is mucho money and surely is meaningful, and I think more meaningful than what many economists are discounting.
I won’t be surprised by a surprise that is not being seen by economists.
Cal
POST SCRIPT: In the report cited above they only expect a 1% increase in inflation.
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Circuit breakers are set at 7%, 13% and 20% for individual stocks. Today the Nasdaq is down close to 5%.
This is to moderate a free-fall and to prevent a flash-crash that might be a computer glitch or algorithm that triggers a mass sell off.
Meanwhile The DOW is down more than 3.5%, the S&P down more than 4%, and the NASDAQ more than 5%.
Cal
This is to moderate a free-fall and to prevent a flash-crash that might be a computer glitch or algorithm that triggers a mass sell off.
Meanwhile The DOW is down more than 3.5%, the S&P down more than 4%, and the NASDAQ more than 5%.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The February trade deficit dropped 6.1%. This is a big and significant number. The meaning is less consumption and imports. The slowdown has begun…
While new unemployment claims are lower, the amount of people currently still collecting unemployment benefits are at late 2021 levels of the Pandemic.
These indicators are pointing to stagflation.
Cal
While new unemployment claims are lower, the amount of people currently still collecting unemployment benefits are at late 2021 levels of the Pandemic.
These indicators are pointing to stagflation.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
See the post script in post 5221 on expected inflation.
This number seems way low to me…
A destroyed economy with a lot of collateral damage.
Can’t see a manufacturing boom in the U.S. It takes capitol, planning, and a lack of uncertainty if that is the intent.
Cal
This number seems way low to me…
A destroyed economy with a lot of collateral damage.
Can’t see a manufacturing boom in the U.S. It takes capitol, planning, and a lack of uncertainty if that is the intent.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Losses have moderated a bit, still a bad day for the markets.
I find it remarkable that there are buyers bidding up the indexes.
An analogy to the inflation and shortages was made to the pandemic, but this time it was purposely performed. The economic slowdown and the inflation basically was purposely recreated.
I for one don’t need anything from China. My IPAD still works.
The thing is that during the pandemic food prices rose 25% over 4 years. There are health consequences from high food prices and eating a poorer diet.
Unlike families with children, I can regulate and limit my expenditures, but with kids a family needs to consume and spend.
The baby boom created a consumer economy, and also a major economic expansion that endured decades, but now an economic crunch along with immigration restrictions will severely limit population growth. An aging population also will slow down productivity.
So the future is very limited…
A large dumpster was put in place yesterday at the vacant house. Today I saw the owner of the house drop off a migrant worker who is emptying the accumulated refuse from replacing the two-car garage hip roof. The worker I suspect is an illegal immigrant.
Fact is that farms and the construction industry relies on this cheap labor.
So while “Maggie” and I are somewhat insulated, the basic American family with kids will be highly burdened by high prices and inflation.
These tariffs are like a huge tax increase, and the people who voted for this did not realize that in fact it is.
The Federal government is expected to collect 400 billion dollars via these tariffs. Businesses, individuals, and households will be paying for this. No surprise to me. The only way to avoid paying this new tax is not to consume.
We get a lot of our food from Mexico, so indirectly now food is taxed via tariffs. I’ll be forced to pay-up.
I just signed up for a $300.00 bowl of soup and bread for Maggie and me to support our local food pantry. Our friend Cynthia does a great job for the homeless in Peekskill. These are sad times…
Cal
I find it remarkable that there are buyers bidding up the indexes.
An analogy to the inflation and shortages was made to the pandemic, but this time it was purposely performed. The economic slowdown and the inflation basically was purposely recreated.
I for one don’t need anything from China. My IPAD still works.
The thing is that during the pandemic food prices rose 25% over 4 years. There are health consequences from high food prices and eating a poorer diet.
Unlike families with children, I can regulate and limit my expenditures, but with kids a family needs to consume and spend.
The baby boom created a consumer economy, and also a major economic expansion that endured decades, but now an economic crunch along with immigration restrictions will severely limit population growth. An aging population also will slow down productivity.
So the future is very limited…
A large dumpster was put in place yesterday at the vacant house. Today I saw the owner of the house drop off a migrant worker who is emptying the accumulated refuse from replacing the two-car garage hip roof. The worker I suspect is an illegal immigrant.
Fact is that farms and the construction industry relies on this cheap labor.
So while “Maggie” and I are somewhat insulated, the basic American family with kids will be highly burdened by high prices and inflation.
These tariffs are like a huge tax increase, and the people who voted for this did not realize that in fact it is.
The Federal government is expected to collect 400 billion dollars via these tariffs. Businesses, individuals, and households will be paying for this. No surprise to me. The only way to avoid paying this new tax is not to consume.
We get a lot of our food from Mexico, so indirectly now food is taxed via tariffs. I’ll be forced to pay-up.
I just signed up for a $300.00 bowl of soup and bread for Maggie and me to support our local food pantry. Our friend Cynthia does a great job for the homeless in Peekskill. These are sad times…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
About 12% of the S&P Index is down over 10%. A different way to look at it is about 1 out of eight stocks is down a least 10%.
Realize that stops were hit to slow down the trading and volatility. The first stop in trading happened at 7% down, and for some a second stop at 13% down.
Presently the moderation of losses has tapered and the losses are moving again towards the minus 1500 point loss on the DOW. I suspect that the selling will take down the markets further towards the close. I am taking into account lunch time for the dip in the selling that made it appear that buying the dip was happening.
It is now 1:36 PM and lunch is over. The selling continues…
I wonder how many stocks in the S&P dropped 13% or more to hit the second level of circuit breaking to slow the free-fall.
Tomorrow likely will be another bad day for the markets, and then the stewing over the weekend will allow for panic to set in over the weekend. Monday has some possibilities of being evil…
Mucho destruction of wealth is underway, and certainly the consumer will feel the negative wealth effect and further retrench. Evidently as I reported above, the 6.1% drop in the deficit means already the consumer and businesses have responded, but how much further will they go?
Evil prevails… Keep your ammo dry to be defensive. Best not to consume…
Cal
Realize that stops were hit to slow down the trading and volatility. The first stop in trading happened at 7% down, and for some a second stop at 13% down.
Presently the moderation of losses has tapered and the losses are moving again towards the minus 1500 point loss on the DOW. I suspect that the selling will take down the markets further towards the close. I am taking into account lunch time for the dip in the selling that made it appear that buying the dip was happening.
It is now 1:36 PM and lunch is over. The selling continues…
I wonder how many stocks in the S&P dropped 13% or more to hit the second level of circuit breaking to slow the free-fall.
Tomorrow likely will be another bad day for the markets, and then the stewing over the weekend will allow for panic to set in over the weekend. Monday has some possibilities of being evil…
Mucho destruction of wealth is underway, and certainly the consumer will feel the negative wealth effect and further retrench. Evidently as I reported above, the 6.1% drop in the deficit means already the consumer and businesses have responded, but how much further will they go?
Evil prevails… Keep your ammo dry to be defensive. Best not to consume…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I reported that in February 5 trillion dollars of wealth was vaporized.
Just today a headline states 2.5 trillion dollars evaporated..
The day is not over yet…
Do you feel poorer?
Cal
Just today a headline states 2.5 trillion dollars evaporated..
The day is not over yet…
Do you feel poorer?
Cal
Retro-Grouch
Veteran
Yes. Poorer, and frightened.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A lot of people are paying the price today, and the inflation, shortages, and real effect of tariffs have not set in yet.
As our friend Robert says and posted not only here in the U.S. but around the world.
Americans and households burdened with high debt will get crushed like ants when the shoe really drops.
The insight that Phil revealed is likely foreclosures on homes.
I don’t think anyone knows how bad this could get.
This is just the beginning of the end.
Cal
As our friend Robert says and posted not only here in the U.S. but around the world.
Americans and households burdened with high debt will get crushed like ants when the shoe really drops.
The insight that Phil revealed is likely foreclosures on homes.
I don’t think anyone knows how bad this could get.
This is just the beginning of the end.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Senario: Will the big three make a car for the working masses? A car that is a compact, durable, affordable, that is fuel efficient to take the place of say Honda’s or a Toyota Corolla.
Also how will the big three come up with the money to design and build such a vehicle?
How much time would it take to step up production?
Where will the steel and aluminum come from?
Will Americans be too poor to buy a new compact car? Will they have jobs? What if they lost their house?
I see too little too late…
For me, I’m likely good for a decade or more with a 2015 Audi A4 with 52K miles on it, but I’m retired. The A4 is a luxury compact. On long trips I exceed 27 MPG doing 70-75 MPH.
When it comes to say a decade or more out, perhaps 15 years, the bad taste in my mouth that tastes like shXX, makes me want to pay the premium or tariff to buy say another German car. Call me spiteful.
The big three favored big profit margins on SUV’s and trucks. They gave away the easy dollars by utilizing mass production, providing domestic jobs, and meeting the needs of many Americans.
Peekskill is a blue collar working class city. I see mostly Toyotas and Hondas. This market share was given away by the big three. Shame on them.
Cal
Also how will the big three come up with the money to design and build such a vehicle?
How much time would it take to step up production?
Where will the steel and aluminum come from?
Will Americans be too poor to buy a new compact car? Will they have jobs? What if they lost their house?
I see too little too late…
For me, I’m likely good for a decade or more with a 2015 Audi A4 with 52K miles on it, but I’m retired. The A4 is a luxury compact. On long trips I exceed 27 MPG doing 70-75 MPH.
When it comes to say a decade or more out, perhaps 15 years, the bad taste in my mouth that tastes like shXX, makes me want to pay the premium or tariff to buy say another German car. Call me spiteful.
The big three favored big profit margins on SUV’s and trucks. They gave away the easy dollars by utilizing mass production, providing domestic jobs, and meeting the needs of many Americans.
Peekskill is a blue collar working class city. I see mostly Toyotas and Hondas. This market share was given away by the big three. Shame on them.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Oil is in the $66.XX range. It dropped $5.00 today.
Earlier it tipped under $66.00, $65.98, but a trigger point would be below $65.00. Pretty much right around the 52 week low.
Anyway’s, below $65.00 is a trigger point that points toward a crash and a hard landing. Might be a leading indicator for the markets. In other words a collapse in oil demand translates into a collapse in the economy, and perhaps even the world economy.
Oil demand will collapse when the world realizes it is in a recession for certain. I don’t think economists or the powers that be understand that a world recession is underway. We are at a tipping point or a threshold. Watch oil prices.
Hard to see any alternative except an eventuality.
Bad policy worsened the Crash of 1929 and made/created the Great Depression. We are living in a great recreation of that era.
I frame the Pandemic as being like the Crash of 1929, then protectionism and later tariffs rooted that era into the Great Depression. Bad policy…
The “Greater Depression” awaits.
Cal
Earlier it tipped under $66.00, $65.98, but a trigger point would be below $65.00. Pretty much right around the 52 week low.
Anyway’s, below $65.00 is a trigger point that points toward a crash and a hard landing. Might be a leading indicator for the markets. In other words a collapse in oil demand translates into a collapse in the economy, and perhaps even the world economy.
Oil demand will collapse when the world realizes it is in a recession for certain. I don’t think economists or the powers that be understand that a world recession is underway. We are at a tipping point or a threshold. Watch oil prices.
Hard to see any alternative except an eventuality.
Bad policy worsened the Crash of 1929 and made/created the Great Depression. We are living in a great recreation of that era.
I frame the Pandemic as being like the Crash of 1929, then protectionism and later tariffs rooted that era into the Great Depression. Bad policy…
The “Greater Depression” awaits.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The sell-off near the close is happening. The DOW is down 1640 points.
Evil prevails…
Cal
Evil prevails…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The DOW closed dow 1679.39 points, nearly 4% (3.98%)
The S&P -274.45 points (-4.84%); and the NASDAQ -1050.44 points minus 5.97%.
The S&P has not seen a drop like this since June 2020.
So here we are right around the same spot when the Pandemic was ramping up, but it is nearly 5 years later, and deficits have soared as well as household debt levels. Pretty much we have no dry ammo to kick the can down the road, and no money to “Socialize” the losses on Wall Street.
The effects of the tariffs have yet to have impact: the shortages; the inflation; the higher cost of living.
Then there is the unemployment, the expected foreclosures…
It seems depending who you voted for, depends if you are panicking yet. Pretty much divided along party lines.
Trumpers believe all is well and good and in the end things will be better. Pretty much they believe that this will lead to a better future. They drank the Cool-Aid and don’t realize it was poisoned.
More than half of Americans voted for Team Orange. I think the farmers wish they could take back their vote, and likely many Federal employees. I would also include teachers since the department of education is being dismantled.
So 1929 is happening, but 1932 (protectionism) and 1934 (tariffs) will happen together more or less.
Tomorrow at 8:30 is the non farm job report, then at 11:15 Jerome Powell, the Lawyer, will be speaking.
The job report could point to a slowdown predicting a recession, and the street wants to know if the FED has any response or indication of any rate hike or cut.
Powell, the Lawyer, a Trump appointee, likely will be like a witness in court directed by his own lawyer that on a witness stand only answer the question and give no additional information. Pretty much he has to remain kinda quiet.
Let’s see how good a lawyer Powell is in evading questions or in not revealing information.
Stay tuned for more economic terror, anxiety, chaos, and uncertainty tomorrow.
I laugh at the economists who say no recession this year.
Cal
The S&P -274.45 points (-4.84%); and the NASDAQ -1050.44 points minus 5.97%.
The S&P has not seen a drop like this since June 2020.
So here we are right around the same spot when the Pandemic was ramping up, but it is nearly 5 years later, and deficits have soared as well as household debt levels. Pretty much we have no dry ammo to kick the can down the road, and no money to “Socialize” the losses on Wall Street.
The effects of the tariffs have yet to have impact: the shortages; the inflation; the higher cost of living.
Then there is the unemployment, the expected foreclosures…
It seems depending who you voted for, depends if you are panicking yet. Pretty much divided along party lines.
Trumpers believe all is well and good and in the end things will be better. Pretty much they believe that this will lead to a better future. They drank the Cool-Aid and don’t realize it was poisoned.
More than half of Americans voted for Team Orange. I think the farmers wish they could take back their vote, and likely many Federal employees. I would also include teachers since the department of education is being dismantled.
So 1929 is happening, but 1932 (protectionism) and 1934 (tariffs) will happen together more or less.
Tomorrow at 8:30 is the non farm job report, then at 11:15 Jerome Powell, the Lawyer, will be speaking.
The job report could point to a slowdown predicting a recession, and the street wants to know if the FED has any response or indication of any rate hike or cut.
Powell, the Lawyer, a Trump appointee, likely will be like a witness in court directed by his own lawyer that on a witness stand only answer the question and give no additional information. Pretty much he has to remain kinda quiet.
Let’s see how good a lawyer Powell is in evading questions or in not revealing information.
Stay tuned for more economic terror, anxiety, chaos, and uncertainty tomorrow.
I laugh at the economists who say no recession this year.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Take note that 1929, 1932 and 1934 are all unraveling all at once so the impact when felt will be kinda all at once instead of stages.
Cal
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Day 4 and no hot flashes. I was told they usually begin 2-3 days after injection.
It seems that when undergoing radiation treatment that I need to maintain a sustained full bladder for 15-20 minute intervals. Coffee which is a bladder irritant I abuse to help me train my bladder for treatment.
Seems like I’m toning up, but I don’t think I’m loosing any weight. Muscle weighs more than fat, and I visually see less flab, the little that I do have.
So far no noticeable side effects from the chemical castration.
“Maggie” is starting a strength building program also to exploit the after-burn. She thinks her belly is getting too big, and the extra weight is effecting her mobility. She realizes she sits too much as a product of writing.
I guess I’m really a journalist. I’m kinda obsessed with the markets right now. I am seeing a lot of things I saw happening in 2007-2008.
OPEC BTW is also trying to up production. This is a bad time to increase supply. Today’s $5.00 drop has not happened since 2022.
Cal
It seems that when undergoing radiation treatment that I need to maintain a sustained full bladder for 15-20 minute intervals. Coffee which is a bladder irritant I abuse to help me train my bladder for treatment.
Seems like I’m toning up, but I don’t think I’m loosing any weight. Muscle weighs more than fat, and I visually see less flab, the little that I do have.
So far no noticeable side effects from the chemical castration.
“Maggie” is starting a strength building program also to exploit the after-burn. She thinks her belly is getting too big, and the extra weight is effecting her mobility. She realizes she sits too much as a product of writing.
I guess I’m really a journalist. I’m kinda obsessed with the markets right now. I am seeing a lot of things I saw happening in 2007-2008.
OPEC BTW is also trying to up production. This is a bad time to increase supply. Today’s $5.00 drop has not happened since 2022.
Cal
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Not more than half of US voters voted for team mean. The voting electorate was only about 40% of the US population and barely more than half of that number voted for the despot. So, about 22% of the overall population of the US voted for this collapse which will take a full generation to heal from, once it all comes to a fore and we end the national nightmare, to paraphrase Gerald Ford. If we devolve further into breakdown of civil order, martial law, even civil war, then your grandchildren will be the ones finally beginning to heal this place.
I still can't believe it has come this far, and the schadenfreude part of me is now more serious and actually hoping that the capitalist industrialists who will just as soon destroy the world, will move to depose the party so they can get back to making money. I just don't want to be in a country in a state of internal armed conflict. Already did that and barely escaped. I don't know if I can handle another go; but if it be that over fascist rule, then down the tyrants. The pendulum of politics always continues to swing towards justice.
Phil
I still can't believe it has come this far, and the schadenfreude part of me is now more serious and actually hoping that the capitalist industrialists who will just as soon destroy the world, will move to depose the party so they can get back to making money. I just don't want to be in a country in a state of internal armed conflict. Already did that and barely escaped. I don't know if I can handle another go; but if it be that over fascist rule, then down the tyrants. The pendulum of politics always continues to swing towards justice.
Phil
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Phil,
Thanks for the fact and the clarity.
Cal
Thanks for the fact and the clarity.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The big three indexes are already deeply in the red. DOW pre-market is down 1200 points, and all and all it looks like the three indexes will start with a haircut of about 3% to begin the trading day.
Likely more circuit breaker stops will happen to slow the free-fall. Could be another 2 1/2 trillion dollars of wealth disappears today, but usually the panic builds and builds until there is a capitulation of sorts. Today is more likely to be bigger loses than yesterday.
Then there is the weekend… Worry will stew and my guess is Monday has the possibility where a lot of losses get locked in.
Last night likely some stop-loss limits were set. Smart money might be putting in buy orders at low prices on Monday to catch “the falling knife.” These stop-loss and buy orders “float” until they get triggered.
I had mentioned Warren Buffet. He is sitting on a pile of cash. He is not buying the dip now, he is waiting for the capitulation that likely will happen next week, but these are tricky unprecedented times, and timing a market bottom is very difficult.
Now JP Morgan says there is a 60% chance of a recession this year. Finally some sense is made. The switch from 40% to now 60% from the “professionals” is big. Understand they have a bias and an interest to promote.
My thinking is that there will be a world wide recession.
At a 7% and 13% daily loss there is a 15 minute delay in trading, but at a 20% daily loss trading gets halted. Understand how markets have trigger points.
Cal
Likely more circuit breaker stops will happen to slow the free-fall. Could be another 2 1/2 trillion dollars of wealth disappears today, but usually the panic builds and builds until there is a capitulation of sorts. Today is more likely to be bigger loses than yesterday.
Then there is the weekend… Worry will stew and my guess is Monday has the possibility where a lot of losses get locked in.
Last night likely some stop-loss limits were set. Smart money might be putting in buy orders at low prices on Monday to catch “the falling knife.” These stop-loss and buy orders “float” until they get triggered.
I had mentioned Warren Buffet. He is sitting on a pile of cash. He is not buying the dip now, he is waiting for the capitulation that likely will happen next week, but these are tricky unprecedented times, and timing a market bottom is very difficult.
Now JP Morgan says there is a 60% chance of a recession this year. Finally some sense is made. The switch from 40% to now 60% from the “professionals” is big. Understand they have a bias and an interest to promote.
My thinking is that there will be a world wide recession.
At a 7% and 13% daily loss there is a 15 minute delay in trading, but at a 20% daily loss trading gets halted. Understand how markets have trigger points.
Cal
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Prest_400
Multiformat
I had written this paragraph mostly earlier, and the draft was kept:
Markets wise I have a cynical and bearish opinion: I still find it slow in our End (Europe). It's still a single digit correction at the moment and pretty much stretch the graphs, some of our indexes are still positive YTD, 1y. So, just a beginning.
Yesterday evening GMT+1 it was interesting to read economic and markets newspaper basically containing the panic "keep buying, ADC your indexes, opportunity times!". Investor opinions of "not that bad". Today it does not seem so contained.
I will keep an eye on that. But adjusting for the european markets. Got some cash savings and will attempt to time the next weeks and ADC a bit, for very long term investments.
Sadly of course the plain citizen is set to suffer. Capitalists with cash will profit from the markets, but also good that pressure is set on Musk and others showing that not everything can be purchased.
Paraphrasing something that was quite impactful from my short law courses when I studied business: Laws reflect moral values, a fine is set to correct something wrong. Whereas in economics a fine is just a cost. Even basic models just "plug externalities" into them.
I think it's a systemic lost opportunity not to frame steady state and degrowth economics as a possibility, though the basis of our current systems are a constant growth.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Oil futures dropped another $5.00 today: $61.XX.
Can you say aloud, “Global Recession?”
Cal
Can you say aloud, “Global Recession?”
Cal