Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Please take note the conflict between the downplaying of tariffs, and the promotion of a soft landing that has gone on for an extended time.
The notion of a U.S. recession because of tariffs has been downplayed. Also the possibility of a world recession, but here we are.
No surprise here. Eyes wide open…
Recognize the bias from the Banksters, economists, and those involved in finance. They are insiders who know the truth and the history lessons, but they conceal and do not reveal what is pretty much evident.
BTW see how a Master’s degree in journalism can be of value here. News is what drives the markets.
Expect Monday to be an evil day…
In 5 minutes the non-farm payroll will get revealed…
Cal
The notion of a U.S. recession because of tariffs has been downplayed. Also the possibility of a world recession, but here we are.
No surprise here. Eyes wide open…
Recognize the bias from the Banksters, economists, and those involved in finance. They are insiders who know the truth and the history lessons, but they conceal and do not reveal what is pretty much evident.
BTW see how a Master’s degree in journalism can be of value here. News is what drives the markets.
Expect Monday to be an evil day…
In 5 minutes the non-farm payroll will get revealed…
Cal
robert blu
quiet photographer
Thank to this 22% of US population the economy of large part of the world has been destabilized, billions blowed... unemployment and unsecurity created...
We are living in weird difficult times...
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
My spin on the jobs report is that the 1/10th of percent increase in unemployment is a more important number than the jobs created.
The 900 announced lay-offs from the company that is Dodge/Chrysler/Jeep, and others can very quickly revise or neutralize the spin that the larger then expected number of jobs created rather quickly. Of course these announced layoffs were not counted.
On the other hand the amount of people continuing to collect unemployment to me is a more reliable number. It shows and indicates the trend of increased unemployment.
So on one hand the headline says the job market is strong because of new job creation, but the fact is unemployment is increasing.
To be truthful I was expecting a stronger drop at the open, but the day is young.
Cal
The 900 announced lay-offs from the company that is Dodge/Chrysler/Jeep, and others can very quickly revise or neutralize the spin that the larger then expected number of jobs created rather quickly. Of course these announced layoffs were not counted.
On the other hand the amount of people continuing to collect unemployment to me is a more reliable number. It shows and indicates the trend of increased unemployment.
So on one hand the headline says the job market is strong because of new job creation, but the fact is unemployment is increasing.
To be truthful I was expecting a stronger drop at the open, but the day is young.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Robert,
The number is not billions, it is Trillions.
Yesterday’s route of the U.S. markets erased 2.5 Trillion dollars worth of wealth in a single day alone. Today is another day. There was another 2.5 Trillion dollars lost in the month of February. Then there is Monday which I predict is when the real selling might happen.
Losses still have to be locked in. Many more are coming. As I spoke it happens over time like a time lapse, and it appears in kinda a slow motion, even if it is a crash.
Things are a thousand times worse than you think. Multiply billions by a thousand and then you get Trillions…
BTW many are not aware of the magnitude of the loses. Seems like the 22% you mentioned have no idea.
Very rude.
Someone will pay for those losses. Who do you think that will be?
I say U.S. farmers, Federal Government workers, teachers, and more or less the “unprotected class” which is a term for the lower 80% of U.S. incomes.
If retirees get added onto this list expect an armed civil war. I will state again that hungry children caused Arab Spring, but in this case it will be hungry seniors and retirees who pretty much don’t have much to loose. I’m talking baby-boomers here that more or less will be gifted a death spiral.
Cal
The number is not billions, it is Trillions.
Yesterday’s route of the U.S. markets erased 2.5 Trillion dollars worth of wealth in a single day alone. Today is another day. There was another 2.5 Trillion dollars lost in the month of February. Then there is Monday which I predict is when the real selling might happen.
Losses still have to be locked in. Many more are coming. As I spoke it happens over time like a time lapse, and it appears in kinda a slow motion, even if it is a crash.
Things are a thousand times worse than you think. Multiply billions by a thousand and then you get Trillions…
BTW many are not aware of the magnitude of the loses. Seems like the 22% you mentioned have no idea.
Very rude.
Someone will pay for those losses. Who do you think that will be?
I say U.S. farmers, Federal Government workers, teachers, and more or less the “unprotected class” which is a term for the lower 80% of U.S. incomes.
If retirees get added onto this list expect an armed civil war. I will state again that hungry children caused Arab Spring, but in this case it will be hungry seniors and retirees who pretty much don’t have much to loose. I’m talking baby-boomers here that more or less will be gifted a death spiral.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A headline is 9.6 Trillion dollars in value has disappeared since Inauguration day.
To frame this in a context know that the U.S. GDP in 2023 was $27.58 Trillion Dollars.
Again today is another day…
Cal
To frame this in a context know that the U.S. GDP in 2023 was $27.58 Trillion Dollars.
Again today is another day…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Jerome Powell, the Lawyer, kinda pleaded the 5th by saying it is too early to have any position on rate cuts or hikes.
Pick your poison: cut rates to mitigate high unemployment, but fuel and ignite worsew inflation; or hold steady or even raise rates to combat inflation, but live with very high unemployment as a facet of the economy.
No real good choice, and because the FED is already “behind the curve” and at best tamed inflation aonly a bit by lowering it into a moderate range.
In my book inflation is the bigger target. Then again I’m retired, so I have a bias.
Cal
Pick your poison: cut rates to mitigate high unemployment, but fuel and ignite worsew inflation; or hold steady or even raise rates to combat inflation, but live with very high unemployment as a facet of the economy.
No real good choice, and because the FED is already “behind the curve” and at best tamed inflation aonly a bit by lowering it into a moderate range.
In my book inflation is the bigger target. Then again I’m retired, so I have a bias.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
My spin on the FED seems to be prevailing. A headline is that there is more worry about a recession than inflation. Without a commitment from the FED or any “FED Speak” the markets are thinking the statement that standing pat for a while means-translates to a lack of rate cuts to stimulate the economy if and when a recession hits.
Imagine interest rates remaining where they are and no FED “put” to rescue the market or help stimulate the economy. A recession could be a deep one, and then consider a world recession to compound things.
So we are at around 1600 points down on the DOW, so another 2.5 trillion in wealth evaporated. I suspect that today’s sell-off will accelerate nearer the close. Right now it is 1:00 PM around lunchtime. Today could get uglier before the day is over.
Then right around 5100 on the S&P where we are close to now is a threshold of support. When that gets breatched, maybe towards the close, a surge of a sell off will happen on the S&P, and that likely will spillover to the other indexes.
The trap-door will kinda fully open. Look out below. It might take a while before there is impact with the ground. On a high diving board, about 35 feet, by the time you hit the water you are doing 35 MPH.
We are kinda at that 35 MPH, but in a free-fall terminal velocity is about 100 MPH. We are not there yet. Hope you have a parachute. This is no “E” ticket ride at Disney…
Cal
Imagine interest rates remaining where they are and no FED “put” to rescue the market or help stimulate the economy. A recession could be a deep one, and then consider a world recession to compound things.
So we are at around 1600 points down on the DOW, so another 2.5 trillion in wealth evaporated. I suspect that today’s sell-off will accelerate nearer the close. Right now it is 1:00 PM around lunchtime. Today could get uglier before the day is over.
Then right around 5100 on the S&P where we are close to now is a threshold of support. When that gets breatched, maybe towards the close, a surge of a sell off will happen on the S&P, and that likely will spillover to the other indexes.
The trap-door will kinda fully open. Look out below. It might take a while before there is impact with the ground. On a high diving board, about 35 feet, by the time you hit the water you are doing 35 MPH.
We are kinda at that 35 MPH, but in a free-fall terminal velocity is about 100 MPH. We are not there yet. Hope you have a parachute. This is no “E” ticket ride at Disney…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Ouch… Today was an ugly day for the markets. If you think today is bad, wait till Monday… I thought the close would be bad, but not this bad.
The NASDAQ officially entered into a bear market. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index is already in a bear market, and the S&P is flirting with one.
All three indexes are down over 5% at the close, and the S&P nearly 6%. The selling is not over, and if you think this is bad usually a weekend after the previous two days will lead to an even bigger sell-off Monday.
The dumb move now is to sell, and you should of had a well diversified portfolio like the 20-20-20-20-20 portfolio I outlined that Jared Dillion developed that is designed for events that are undergoing.
20% real estate; 20% cash; 20% commodities like gold and oil; 20% equities; and lastly 20% bonds. Pretty much even with the bad two days, and February’s 2.5 Trillion hit you would not be down so much.
Anyways after a weekend of worry Monday will highly likely be mucho bad and evil. Monday’s open will be a horror.
How bad is it that Apple, one of the “Magnificent Seven” is close to forming a “death cross” where a shorter term moving average hits a longer-term moving average.
Can you say, “Kaa-Boom?” Apple going nearly into a death cross in two days is like a nuclear explosion. Wealth got vaporized. Monday likely will be a fully formed death-cross.
I imagine many people’s retirement went away. Even wealthy people are not so wealthy anymore.
There is more evil to come… Also with so much destruction going on it will take a lot of time for any recovery, especially since it kinda was a bubble that the Orange House popped.
Without flow of capitol will compound things or any recovery.
Cal
The NASDAQ officially entered into a bear market. The Russell 2000 Small Cap index is already in a bear market, and the S&P is flirting with one.
All three indexes are down over 5% at the close, and the S&P nearly 6%. The selling is not over, and if you think this is bad usually a weekend after the previous two days will lead to an even bigger sell-off Monday.
The dumb move now is to sell, and you should of had a well diversified portfolio like the 20-20-20-20-20 portfolio I outlined that Jared Dillion developed that is designed for events that are undergoing.
20% real estate; 20% cash; 20% commodities like gold and oil; 20% equities; and lastly 20% bonds. Pretty much even with the bad two days, and February’s 2.5 Trillion hit you would not be down so much.
Anyways after a weekend of worry Monday will highly likely be mucho bad and evil. Monday’s open will be a horror.
How bad is it that Apple, one of the “Magnificent Seven” is close to forming a “death cross” where a shorter term moving average hits a longer-term moving average.
Can you say, “Kaa-Boom?” Apple going nearly into a death cross in two days is like a nuclear explosion. Wealth got vaporized. Monday likely will be a fully formed death-cross.
I imagine many people’s retirement went away. Even wealthy people are not so wealthy anymore.
There is more evil to come… Also with so much destruction going on it will take a lot of time for any recovery, especially since it kinda was a bubble that the Orange House popped.
Without flow of capitol will compound things or any recovery.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The tally is 11 Trillion Dollars of losses since the Inauguration.
Cal
Cal
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Cal, I heard on NPR that nearly half of that loss was only within the last few days.
Phil
Phil
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Phil,
True. Yesterdays losses were $2.5 Trillion alone.
Plus today’s losses which are even bigger..
These loses are not over. There is still Monday…
Cal
True. Yesterdays losses were $2.5 Trillion alone.
Plus today’s losses which are even bigger..
These loses are not over. There is still Monday…
Cal
ellisson
Well-known
"The effects of tariffs on camera lovers" thread was closed by moderators because of the notion that it would be "political". Well, geez, almost anything can turn political, and tariffs affect the economy, and like many things, the economy can be political! Discussion of photography in Ukraine or Iran, or Israel, or Gaza, or the U.S. could be political, too! But it's still about photography, cameras, lenses, film......
My point and intended contribution to that thread is this: We buy what we can afford. Camera gear will be affected by the tariffs because the U.S. stock market and other financial markets with sell-offs (due to U.S. tariffs) mean that personal investments and savings accounts that include equities lose value. And spending will need to decline as prices inflate and personal wealth deflates. So hell yeah, tariffs will affect everyone, including camera lovers! Too political, or too realistic and worrisome to discuss on RFF?
My point and intended contribution to that thread is this: We buy what we can afford. Camera gear will be affected by the tariffs because the U.S. stock market and other financial markets with sell-offs (due to U.S. tariffs) mean that personal investments and savings accounts that include equities lose value. And spending will need to decline as prices inflate and personal wealth deflates. So hell yeah, tariffs will affect everyone, including camera lovers! Too political, or too realistic and worrisome to discuss on RFF?
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Headline is that 6.6 Trillion Dollars in losses on just Thursday and Friday.
Where is the bottom from here?
I just did my taxes, and I’ll be getting a nice return this year. “Maggie” and I alternate years taking the mortgage interest and tax deduction.
I saw a letter to the editor of Barrons, and the writer speaks of how AI likely will get limited development due to infrastructure limitations. This agrees with what Phil and I believe. This also translates to AI jumping the shark and being a bubble.
On the Cancer front, I’m on day-5 since my chemical castration, and I still have not experienced any hot flashes or side effects.
I am definitely leaning out, toning up, and likely the same weight around 157 pounds at 5’10”. My torso is getting cut. I’m cutting carbs to help starve the Cancer.
The kids close on the cottage in Carmel Tuesday. The husband has a job interview in Brewster nearby to teach high school to escape Yonkers. They have mucho low taxes, and the cottage is renovated well, well insulated, and is turnkey.
Cal
Where is the bottom from here?
I just did my taxes, and I’ll be getting a nice return this year. “Maggie” and I alternate years taking the mortgage interest and tax deduction.
I saw a letter to the editor of Barrons, and the writer speaks of how AI likely will get limited development due to infrastructure limitations. This agrees with what Phil and I believe. This also translates to AI jumping the shark and being a bubble.
On the Cancer front, I’m on day-5 since my chemical castration, and I still have not experienced any hot flashes or side effects.
I am definitely leaning out, toning up, and likely the same weight around 157 pounds at 5’10”. My torso is getting cut. I’m cutting carbs to help starve the Cancer.
The kids close on the cottage in Carmel Tuesday. The husband has a job interview in Brewster nearby to teach high school to escape Yonkers. They have mucho low taxes, and the cottage is renovated well, well insulated, and is turnkey.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Not sure, but I have to use the bell in my header to link to this thread.
This might be a way to bury or sensor the at times fee speech here and civil behavior. Am I the only person who experiences this?
When I post, it does not get top listed inn”What’s New.”
Cal
This might be a way to bury or sensor the at times fee speech here and civil behavior. Am I the only person who experiences this?
When I post, it does not get top listed inn”What’s New.”
Cal
As was stated, there are effectively only two mods on this forum. Neither of us want to spend time cleaning up threads that get out of hand.
Please keep this thread apolitical, meaning none of the usual and predictably incendiary internet commentary.😄 Discussions will remain open as long as they retain friendly terms. If they don’t we will simply close the thread.
Thanks all!
Retro-Grouch
Veteran
Well. I guess we've been warned, boys and girls.
Politics, not politics, "incendiary" comments... Perhaps the only appropriate action these days is to hide under the bed, suck your thumb, and whimper. Except there's a scary monster under the bed, too!
Politics, not politics, "incendiary" comments... Perhaps the only appropriate action these days is to hide under the bed, suck your thumb, and whimper. Except there's a scary monster under the bed, too!
If we do nothing, people complain. If we moderate, people complain. If we ask politely, scary monsters. 😆
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Looks like I lost 9% of my retirement savings over the last two weeks. Good times.
Phil
Phil
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
September 22, 2022 is when this thread started. I know some people here since perhaps 2008, many in person through meet-ups and travels.
The NYC Meet-Up I think goes back to 2008…
The moderators have been rather tolerant with our rantings. We enjoy a safe place where all are welcomed that prior to yesterday required no intervention from moderators.
If you read through this entire thread there were two participants that could be called “Trolls,” and they kinda were pushed out by the community that was developed here. No intervention by moderators was required.
So if we could tone things down a bit, still have a sense of community, and most of all have a safe place where artists and photographers can exchange ideas and news, it would be a good thing.
I guess I’m kinda posting this as a kinda mission statement.
I hate politics, my next door neighbors force their views upon others, I don’t think that is going on here, but one of the reasons I think this thread is so popular and so interactive is because of the journalism going on here that is not present in the mass media.
So pretty much what is supported here is democracy, and if this thread gets canned because it can be construed or confused as having a political content or context. Oh-well.
Understand that I have done the NYC Meet-Up and created this community for a very long time, I have done this as a public service, and it helped get us through the Pandemic.
I think we can tone things down a bit to keep this community open. I have to thank the moderators for their tolerance to my rants…
Cal
The NYC Meet-Up I think goes back to 2008…
The moderators have been rather tolerant with our rantings. We enjoy a safe place where all are welcomed that prior to yesterday required no intervention from moderators.
If you read through this entire thread there were two participants that could be called “Trolls,” and they kinda were pushed out by the community that was developed here. No intervention by moderators was required.
So if we could tone things down a bit, still have a sense of community, and most of all have a safe place where artists and photographers can exchange ideas and news, it would be a good thing.
I guess I’m kinda posting this as a kinda mission statement.
I hate politics, my next door neighbors force their views upon others, I don’t think that is going on here, but one of the reasons I think this thread is so popular and so interactive is because of the journalism going on here that is not present in the mass media.
So pretty much what is supported here is democracy, and if this thread gets canned because it can be construed or confused as having a political content or context. Oh-well.
Understand that I have done the NYC Meet-Up and created this community for a very long time, I have done this as a public service, and it helped get us through the Pandemic.
I think we can tone things down a bit to keep this community open. I have to thank the moderators for their tolerance to my rants…
Cal
I'm sure this thread will continue as it has for a long time, other members who questioned the tariff moderation in other threads asked me "well, what about Calzone's thread???" So to be fair it was discussed that the post above was the proper way to proceed here. Thank you. 