Anticipated Success of the M8

[Trius]

For those following the M8 rumour/speculation/"I have one but can't post images" mills, what do you think will be the success of the M8. Yes, I know there is another thread about whether the M8 has (or will) "saved" Leica.

But the reason I ask and start yet another pre-release M8 thread is ... I went to a local (and long established) camera store today, to buy some Portra 160NC and Tri-X. This is, afterall, Rochester.

Over the years Rowe has expanded to audio & video equipment. On this trip I noted that the camera section had shrunk another 8 linear feet or so, making way for more flat screen TV and home theatre displays. I commented on this to the clerk, and he agreed ... I could see he was trying to project at least a neutral, if not positive demeanor, but the resignation came through in his face.

I asked for my film, and when he came back from the cooler I pulled out 35 SP and his face lit up. We started talking about classic cameras and rangefinders, and the conversation turned to the M8. He referred me to another sales rep who he said was "the Leica rep". When Ken was finished with another customer, we started discussing the M8. I don't think he's a Leica employee, but is the store's Leica specialist.

Too make a long story a bit shorter, I took away a few interesting pieces of information:

* The M8 production is "pre-ordered" well into January
* Anyone who has had access to the M8 pre-release, has signed an NDA preventing them from talking about it until the formal announcement, and posting images until shipping. (I may have misunderstood the last date, but that's my understanding.)
* Prints from the M8, shown in private, have been "amazing", with the long print dimension well over 14".
* Upon asking Ken whether he thought prominent photojournalists who have moved from Leica to DSLR will adopt the M8, he calmly said "I think we'll get them back."

In discussing whether I personally would buy the M8, I told him I'd have to win the lottery or engage a divorce attorney. He laughed and said they routinely have guys come in who will buy an expensive item, putting a couple of hundred dollars of the purchase on a credit card, and plunk down $2K or so for the remainder. Now that's GAS!

 

[back alley]

my local pro camera store has had the same leica m7 in their showcase for years.
they have one lens for it, also in the same showcase.
they are an authorized leica dealer but i don't think they sell many.

they told me last week that they have 2 of the m 8's coming in.

so the good news is i will actually get to see and play with one eventually.
and of course the bad news is i will never be able to afford one.

my assumption based on them getting a couple of the bodies in is that they think leica is looking up.

joe


let's see, if i sell both zi's and the 25 and the 50 and the 90 and the 28 and keep the 35, i might be able to swing it...😉

 

[varjag]

I just played with one today, it's as good as they say. I think it will be a success.

 

[AndyPiper]

Before Photokina, my dealer had two M8's pre-ordered by customers (including me) and a third on order for the shop.

SINCE Photokina (and having a beta version in the store for a weekend Leica Day) he has picked up 3 more orders. Since some big-city shops were reporting 50-70 preorders before PK, if they have experienced the same 200% "boom" in the last month, it's no wonder production is presold into 2007.

I work at a newspaper where maybe 25% of the shooters had or have a film Leica (the paper is all digital these days). Mostly used M6s. I expect most will want an M8, but will wait and buy a used one (PJs aren't rich, and the paper is not likely to spring for them). A couple are still holding out for full-frame.

A lot of the Magnum PJs have never "left" Leica - willing to stick with film just for the RF viewing. They may well jump to M8s as soon as they can, so that they can pick up short-deadline digital jobs (and the associated paychecks) and still shoot the way they've always preferred.

 

[Trius]

Andy: That pretty well reflects my thinking ... the Magnum/agency photojournalists who take up the M8 will be relatively few, but there are relatively few of them anyway, so the percentage may be significant. If the b&w images out of the M8 are as good as some have said, then that will be a major factor in the decision. Journalists such as Alex Majoli, who uses the Olympus C-5050 (or some such) as if it were an RF, may move to the M8 for the better vf and choice of glass.

What I also found interesting in my conversation yesterday was that Ken confirmed the ban on posting images before release, which confirms what others have said, including Ascender/Charlie/Seal over on that interminable thread.

Joe, I doubt we will see many M8s sold in the stores you and I frequent. The size of Edmonton and Rochester doesn't support more than one or two per year to be sold, I would guess. But if there are more than a couple sold here in Eastman-town, I would call it a raving success. There certainly are folks here who can easily afford it, but I hope the sales would be to serious photographers instead. 🙄

 

[Bromo33333]

Success of M8? Sure!

Success of M8? Sure!

I think the M8 will be a success - not too much of an issue, but at $5k a pop, and backordered into January (it all depends upon how many they are making if this is a good or a bad thing). If the hype is to be believed, Leica will have a good camera and at least a moral victory,:angel: if the volume is too low to create a renaissance.

As far as photojournalists and pro photographers? I don't know enough about the economics (lenses + bodies) to determine if this is a winning combination for them or not. 😕 Certianly the guy at Rowe (I am a Rochestearian, too) is feeling confident which may speak for something ... but who knows?

 

[Bromo33333]

... There certainly are folks here who can easily afford it, but I hope the sales would be to serious photographers instead. 🙄

If everyone that could afford one, were to buy one, I think forgiving them for not being "serious" photographers would be in order as Leica's future would be assured, and recent success for Leica film has been more amongst collectors than working stiffs! 😀

 

[x-ray]

I personally believe this will be mainly for the amateur market. Mos of the PJ are used to DSLR's with a variety of lenses including long glass and zooms. Unfortunately a trio of zooms has become the main kit of lenses today for most pros. For a PJ that's used to a zoom it's a hard transition to a fixed lens when trying to capture fast moving events. No for the editorial / documentary guys like myself the RF and prime lenses are a natural. Nothing terribly fast moving and many of us use M film cameras and love them. Personal opinion is it will keep Leica in business. I must confess that the more I see it and read about it the more I am attracted to one. Possibly in a year after it's been out and debugged.

 

[jaapv]

The original Barnack-Ernst Leitz system was aimed at the amateur market. Leica have never forgotten that...

 

[Grober]

Why has Leica NOT published any photos shot with production M8 firmware to date?

Two possible reasons:

1. "Production" firmware still not ready.
2. They know the first year's production is all pre-subscribed so they don't need to "waste" ad dollars on selling the new product.

Both possibilities would indicate that Leica is still trapped by their old mentality of small thinking. If, as we all hope, the M8 is a true break-through product, Leica needs to wake up and learn how to more effectively market the brand.

If we start to see some "official" sample photos from Solms in early November, that's a good sign. GIven that, maybe it's not too late for them to have discovered Marketing.

(I've had one on pre-order for many months and hope to have it by the end of November.)

-g

 

[GeneW]

Thanks for the insights, Earl.

The M8 is not in my future plans, but only because of the cost. Hard to justify on a retirement budget... But it interests me and because I like shooting digital as well as film, I'd love to own one.

In terms of success -- that's a tricky one to measure. What encourages me is the example of Apple Computers. Apple demonstrates you don't have to carve out a large part of the HUGE digital market to be successful. Apple sells to what, 5% of the computer market? I'm hopeful that if Leica can carve out the X% of the market that makes them profitable, they'll survive and the camera will be successful, leading to the inevitable future refinements and models.

Gene

 

[c.poulton]

Good point Gene.

In reality Leica does only need to satisfy a niche market out of the total digital market place. Whether the M8 is predominantly sold to pro's of not doe's not really matter, as long as the numbers sold provide enough of a profit margin for Leica to continue, and hopefully develop further models later down the line.

My gut felling is that, for now, the pro market is stuck with DSLR's and that may be difficult to get into for Leica, however don't forget that there is a lot of young talent out there who are still shooting with film and consequently have not invested or been wed to DSLR's, that’s the market that Leica should be aiming at. It's unfortunate that the cost is so prohibitive, but I guess that's what you have to pay for a premium product such as a Leica?

 

[jaapv]

I dont think the cost is prohibitive for professional use. After all, look at the prices Canon and Nikon charge for their professional camera's A lot more.

 

[AShearer]

I dont think the cost is prohibitive for professional use. After all, look at the prices Canon and Nikon charge for their professional camera's A lot more.

This is absolutely correct. If one were starting out new, the cost of the body vs. Canon's Mark1, $7,000 or Nikon D2x $4700, would be less or the same as the M8. Pro glass for these is less on average, with Nikon Pro level lenses running between $800 and $6,000. But, these tend to be zooms and really long telephotos, not really appropriate to Leica comparison.

IMHO; the best DSLR glass is still not up to par with Leica M lenses, and I own a few Nikon pro lenses.

This is one thing that has bugged me about all the discussion about the price of the M8. It's basically the same as the top level DSLR's from the big two, yet everyone complains about the cost. Comparitively, Leica film M's are the most expensive 35's as well. So, doesn't it make sense that the M would be priced about where it is?

 

[Trius]

Jaap & Alan: You are quite right about the relative costs of the bodies, and M glass vs. DSLR primes is probably higher cost (I don't keep the prices in my head), but quality is another story. I'm not denigrating Canon, Nikon (or even Oly Zuiko digital glass), but look at the seleciton of M glass, including older designs on the used market at quite reasonable prices AND newer Zeiss and CV choices.

Chris: Great point about young talent that are film photographers and not wedded to a digital system. My sense is that many of those have not gone digital because of cost (a starving artist can create more cheaply with classic gear in terms of initial capital expenditure), so the M8, as attractive as it is, might be beyond reach.

Gene: The M8 does not seem to be in my future, either, but if I were to get one it would certainly be before I retire, when all hope for such a purchase would be lost! Hint: My attendance at RFF gatherings and other such trips are really a cover for buying 6/49 tickets! 😀

 

[rolopix]

Here's something a friend and I were puzzling over: If the M8 is a success, does it spell the end of the film M?

Wait! I'm not writing a paean and elegy for the good old days of hand-crafted la de dah. I'm wondering if Leica can be as (marginally) profitable as they are currently if film M sales bottom out and they are selling only as many M8s as they used to sell MPs, M7s, a la cartes, etc. It's difficult (and inaccurate) to compare R sales to M, but I would bet that it's been many months since Leica sold an R9 body without an accompanying DMR. What will Leica's financial status be if the sale of their film cameras essentially disappears?

rs

 

[Trius]

My guess is that Leica will increase its revenue stream from other digital equipment. If the DLux 3 is a relative flop, you will see a renewed effort to get a Leica-badged 4/3s camera that sells. They may even change OEMs or at least change the sensor manufacturer. Alliances in this sector can be short-lived. I say this because ...

One other little tidbit of information that Ken offered was that the R-D1 was a result of Leica pulling out of a planned digital RF project with Cosina. IOW, the R-D1 was originally a Leica/Cosina project, and Cosina turned to Epson when Leitz decided not to move forward. My suspicion is that both issues of manufacturing the chassis itself and the sensor crop factor may have played into Solms' decision.

But whatever happened and however it happened, just as Olympus initially chose Kodak for the E-1 sensor, then went to Panasonic for the E-330 CMOS chip, Leica could do the same with the both the successor to the M8, and could ditch Panasonic for the 4/3s effort. Also I expect to see Leica jump further into the 4/3s market with more primes, perhaps letting Olympus carry the burden of the next pro level body, i.e. the E-3, and see what revenue they can pull from reformulating some of their M primes for that mount.

All-in-all, the proliferation of DSLR mounts means that a new market has opened up for Leica. It will be interesting to see if and how they capitalize.

 

[rolopix]

All-in-all, the proliferation of DSLR mounts means that a new market has opened up for Leica. It will be interesting to see if and how they capitalize.

There has been a proliferation of SLR lens mounts for decades and Leica has never expressed interest in providing their lenses in other mounts. In fact, they have expressed a disinterest. When you consider the interest in using R glass (and, for that matter, Zeiss Contax glass) on Canon bodies, despite the fiddly incompatibility issues, it wouldn't surprise me at all that there is a market for R lenses in alternate mounts. But if they wouldn't do it when they had the resources to make it happen easily, is it likely that they would invest in the licensing and tooling now?

Issuing lenses carrying the Leica brand in the 4/3rds mount may help their revenue stream, as may rebadging P&S digicams, but last I saw the two moneymakers were M cameras and binoculars. If sales of M film cameras dry up, they're going to have to sell a shi(p)load of digi products to keep treading water.

 

[Trius]

Rolo: Good points, and the 4/3s mount is different in that is an open standard, i.e. no licensing fees that I know of. However, the economies of digicam production change the playing field a bit. Leica can hardly keep up with the electronic-cam giants, so if they don't make a bunch of money with the M8 and Digilux, etc., then I think the revenue stream from binoculars might not be enough.

 

[neelin]

My guess is that Leica will increase its revenue stream from other digital equipment...

All-in-all, the proliferation of DSLR mounts means that a new market has opened up for Leica. It will be interesting to see if and how they capitalize.

On the other hand if they are TOO sucessful, market forces will induce Canon/Nikon to bring a RF model so Leica can't skim too much cream off one segment of the marketplace. Capitalism can suck at times 😉

(looking forward to Canon's f0.95 RF lens 😉

Robert