Are you anxious about the demise of film?

[awilder]

Sadly yes. I'm down to one film body (Nikon F2A) but mainly use my Nikon D700 and Olympus E-P2. All three bodies use my Nikkors and the Oly can use my Leica lenses too.

 

[colyn]

I don't believe film will disappear in my lifetime nor do I believe it will disappear in the next 50 or more years.

People said photography would kill painting, pen and ink, etc but the art is still alive and well. They also said computers would kill off typewriters but they are still being produced and the typewriter business is still alive and well..

As some have said some film makers may die off but there is still a demand for film...

 

[Griffin]

Film will go when vinyl goes.

 

[bobbyrab]

So we're eight pages in and the truth is no one here really has a authoritative answer, just best guesses really, some more informed than others but hunches non the less. One thing we can say is the analogies to vinyl, or painting are completely irrelevant to film manufacture, so can we knock those on the head now.

 

[HHPhoto]

No first-hand knowledge here, but people have been setting up new plants in recent years. The most prominent example is Adox (ex-Fotoimpex), who set up a new facility for coating B&W films and paper near Berlin. They got some some Agfa machinery and ex-Agfa employees, now they make new papers based on Agfa MCC and MCP.

Hi Philipp,

that is not quite true.
As Mirko Böddecker from Adox has always emphazised, Adox will not do any coating in the foreseeable future.
There is no running coating line in the new Adox factory.
At this factory only cutting and packing of film and paper will be done.

The coating of Adox MCC and MCP (and in future of the films) is made by InovisCoat ( www.inoviscoat.de ). There is one of the former Agfa Leverkusen coating machines running and the Leverkusen technical staff.

Cheers, Jan

 

[crf529]

One thing we can say is the analogies to vinyl, or painting are completely irrelevant to film manufacture, so can we knock those on the head now.

That is an opinion as well, just yours that's all, what paths film will take in the next 5-50 years is far beyond any one man's foresight. The one thing we can actually say is that the demise of film, the when, where and how is still a great unknown. Until such time as the big companies cease production and the burden is placed on the smaller manufacturers, there isn't alot we have to accurately predict the future of film past today.

 

[HHPhoto]

As long as substrate is available, someone will almost certainly find it commercially worth while to coat film (at least black and white) -- and there are quite a few options for substrate, including polyesters.

Roger, substrate is not a problem. Enough manufacturers are producing it, both triazetate and PET.

Kodak, Fuji and Agfa-Gevaert are producing their base material themselves, they don't need to buy it from other companies.
PET base is for example produced by all major chemical companies, like DuPont, BASF etc.

The niche players like Ilford, Foma, Fotokemika have to buy it from specialised manufacturers, but that is mostly no problem.

Currently there was a problem for Foma getting clear triazetate base for their Foma R100 BW slide film.
But the problem was not because of low demand, but because of extremely high demand!
The manufacturer of this base had so many orders, especially from the computer industry (PCB films), that he put Fomas order behind much bigger orders from other clients, so Foma had to wait.
Now they have their base and are producing R100 again.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

People who hoard film now are actually bad for the market.

Someone who bunkers a fridge full of, say, Tri-X because he anguishes about Kodak going out of the market is taking vital income away from Ilford, Foma or whoever continues to make film in the future. The moment a company stays making product X, instead of hoarding as much X as one can, one should immediately stop buying X and start buying some other product Y instead, in order to support the continuing production of Y.

And that's assuming that Kodak actually does leave the market. If Kodak stays in the market, the hoarder is actually taking away future income from Kodak, too. From Kodak's point of view, the Tri-X that you can buy now from a retailer has already generated whatever income it can generate. Film keeps well. A hoarder who buys loads of the already-existing Tri-X now is removing part of Kodak's incentive to make Tri-X in the future.

One thing that will be required of film photographers in the future is the readiness to adapt. If manufacturer X does leave the market, switch to products of manufacturer Y. Hoarding film X accomplishes nothing or is actually counterproductive, no matter what happens.

By hoarding, a hoarder is betting on all manufacturers leaving the market, for the expected benefit of being able to shoot a little longer if or when that happens. In that sense, from an economics point of view, hoarding is egoistic behaviour.

Wise words, Philipp.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

I don't think there's any cause for concern, really. Alls I'm saying is you're fine for now but that I think there will be a definite endpoint to film production and it's on the horizon... that endpoint I'd peg at around 15 years, that "15 years" is a wild-arse guess on my part, I don't want it to ever end but the writing is on the wall as I see it because there are hardly any new film cameras being made and even the movie camera industry has completely stopped making them as of this year... your old camera won't work forever, and there will be no parts or skilled labor around to keep them alive...

Well,
now I must reply on all that complete nonsense that film will die because of a lack of film based cameras.
Let's have a look at the facts:

1. Due to official data from the CIPA (organisation of Japanese camera manufacturers) in the last decade from 2000 to 2010 more than 90 millions new analog cameras were sold worldwide.
Of course most of them during the time from 2000 to 2007.
But the fact is that more than 90 million "young and fresh" cameras are on the market and can be used.

2. Due to CIPA data more than 400 million working analog cameras are out there worldwide.
There are much much more film based cameras than film photographers. That is why used cameras are so cheap. Too much cameras.

3. There will be repair people in the future: Look at vintage cars: Cars built 70 or 80 years ago are now repaired by 30 year old enthusiastic mechanics.
And a repair of a camera is easier than vintage car repair.
Someone who is able to repair a mechanical watch is able to learn to repair a camera. It is not rocket science.

Spare parts we have enough because we have enough cameras (see above).

3. Nikon, Leica, Cosina, Fuji, Mamiya, Horseman, Linhof, DHW (former Franke&Heidecke, Rollei), Phenix, Zenit are producing new film based cameras (precision cameras).
And worldwide more than 20 manufacturers of LF cameras.

4. Holga, LSI and Superheadz are producing masses of new lo-fi film cameras.
Dozens of different models are offered, each year new models are introduced.
It is expected that next year sales of these cameras surpass the 1 million number of p.a. sales!

LSI (Lomographic Society International) alone sold 500,000 new cameras in 2010!
At Photokina last year Freestyle told me that they are selling more than 40,000 Holgas every year, and sales are increasing for years.

Therefore, if you look at the facts and the numbers, you see at once that there are and will be more than enough film cameras for the next decades.

Cheers, Jan

 

[whitecat]

Talked to a Minox rep yesterday. He tells me that film is still available with no sign of stoppage, albeit a little expensive.

 

[HHPhoto]

Sevo, do we know there are a million film users?

Well, we do know exactly that there are much more film users worldwide than 1 million.
Why? The data is there.
Only one example:
The LSI is regularly reporting about their sales, Holga as well.
Due to LSI there are already more than 1 million low-fi film shooters / lomographers worldwide.
LSI sold 500,000 new cameras last year.

They intend to double their film sales up to 8 million rolls this year.
That is only the film sold directly by LSI via their online shop and their worldwide Gallery Stores. Most low-fi film shooters buy their film at other sources, therefore the whole number of film rolls shot by the low-fi movement is about 20 million films p.a., and the number is rapidly increasing.
LSI is expanding worldwide in other profitable growing markets (China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Brazil, Turkey, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillippines, Mexiko, South Africa and some other European states).
Currently they are searching for about another hundred new employees (look at their job offers on their website).
LSI is already a bigger company than Ilford and Foma together.

Cheers, Jan

 

[wgerrard]

So we're eight pages in and the truth is no one here really has a authoritative answer, just best guesses really, some more informed than others but hunches non the less. One thing we can say is the analogies to vinyl, or painting are completely irrelevant to film manufacture, so can we knock those on the head now.

No one can have an authoritative answer, even the people who make film. We know that very few film cameras are sold, and that you need to go out of your way to buy one. We know that old cameras won't last forever, altho some can last a very long time. We know that in many countries we have a generation of people who have never used and maybe never seen film.

Film is apparently still a force in many parts of the world. But, as cell phones inevitably spread everywhere, I expect that to change.

The analogies are interesting, but, like you say, irrelevant. Vinyl records or typewriters or whatever all are different products. (BTW, I checked typewriters on Amazon. They're all digital machines with LCD's and such, a daisywheel, and a keyboard on top.)

 

[bulevardi]

I know a few good photo shops in Belgium that closed their doors the last years. They specifically sold lots of non-digital stuff.
Of course there are still shops doing it, but the market is certainly cut down a lot.

 

[HHPhoto]

We know that very few film cameras are sold,

In relative terms compared to the past it is little now, but in absolut terms 1 million new cameras p.a. is quite a lot.

And you totally forget that millions of cameras each year are bought on the used market.

Well, as written in my post above, the used market is gigantic, more than 400 million cameras around worldwide.

Only one example: Canon has sold almost 20 million film SLR's with EF bayonet from 1987 to 2010.

Canon made about 6 million AE-1 models, most of them are still working.

and that you need to go out of your way to buy one.

????
It has never been easier to get a film camera than today.
Nowadays you have hundreds of different models only a click away via eb... and other online auction sites or online dealers.
You buy and it is sent to you. The easiest possible way.

In the "glory days of film" 15 years ago you have to go to the shop, and then only some models were available there. If you lived at the countryside you even had to travel to the next bigger city.

Fact is, now in the internet age it is much more easier to get a film camera than ever.
And you can get dream cameras very cheap.

We know that old cameras won't last forever, altho some can last a very long time.

Well with proper use film cameras work for decades. My oldest is 70 years old and has never seen a repair shop or a CLA.
Most film cameras will probably outlive us.

We know that in many countries we have a generation of people who have never used and maybe never seen film.

I've been in some of these emerging economies. In all film is known and used, and often more widespread than digital.

In some industrialised countries we now have younger folks which grew up with digital and so far have not used film.
But, the interesting thing is, that especially these folks are curious about film and start to experiment with it.
For them it is new and interesting.

A high percentage of the lo-fi shooters belong to exactly this group.
That is one reason for the success of Holga, Superheadz and LSI:
They concentrate their marketing on this group.
And that works extremely well.

Film is apparently still a force in many parts of the world. But, as cell phones inevitably spread everywhere, I expect that to change.

Well, you probably agree that in the US almost everyone now has a cellphone with camera.
Nevertheless in the US alone last year 36 million single use cameras were sold.
If your guess would be right, single use cameras had to be the first cameras to go.
But that has not happened.
The reality check is against you.

A Kodak rep told me, that they see even digital camera users now using single use cameras in certain applications, e.g. at the beach in vacancies.

Cheers, Jan

 

[sevo]

I know a few good photo shops in Belgium that closed their doors the last years. They specifically sold lots of non-digital stuff.

Plenty of camera shops here in town have closed - there are less than ten percent of the (arguably impressive, we had a major street where every second business was a camera shop) 1970's figure left. But that development is independent of digital cameras, it already started more than 25 years ago, when the electronics superstores started to take away the business of dedicated camera shops, and accelerated dramatically by the early 2000's when the electronics superstores in their turn came under pressure of online stores and moved downward into the last niches catered for by smaller brick-and-mortar stores.

 

[barnwulf]

I am not worried about film disappearing. I think there will be a few small producers left for a long time yet. I shoot mainly film and shoot 4 or 5 rolls a week. I also sometimes shoot with my M8 and if I eventually have to go all digital I could do that but, I don't think it will come to that for sometime yet. My local camera dealer has had to increase his inventory of BW film the last year or two because he has been selling a lot more of it. Jim

 

[Roger Hicks]

Roger, substrate is not a problem. Enough manufacturers are producing it, both triazetate and PET.

Kodak, Fuji and Agfa-Gevaert are producing their base material themselves, they don't need to buy it from other companies.
PET base is for example produced by all major chemical companies, like DuPont, BASF etc.

The niche players like Ilford, Foma, Fotokemika have to buy it from specialised manufacturers, but that is mostly no problem.

Currently there was a problem for Foma getting clear triazetate base for their Foma R100 BW slide film.
But the problem was not because of low demand, but because of extremely high demand!
The manufacturer of this base had so many orders, especially from the computer industry (PCB films), that he put Fomas order behind much bigger orders from other clients, so Foma had to wait.
Now they have their base and are producing R100 again.

Cheers, Jan

Dear Jan,

This is most encouraging and suggests that I may have been talking to the wrong people.

On the other hand, lack of substrate is the only 'materials' problem that the 'niche players' have talked about, so perhaps I'm not so wrong after all (and nor are they).

In other words, it reinforces my view that the 'death of film' is a VERY long way away, and that if it happens, if it isn't sheer lack of demand for film, it will be disappearance of the big players who do, in fact, make their own substrate.

Cheers,

R.

 

[zauhar]

This is an isolated data point, but -

I was picking up some processed color film at the local lab the other day. The customer in front of me was leaving with a really large box of developed negatives. I wondered what the story was - the guy at the counter said this customer was a catalog photographer and mostly worked in film, frequently dropping off 10-20 rolls at a time.

He also said that the day before the lab had processed 200 rolls in all.

This is one of two labs in Philadelphia, so they have the advantage of limited competition and a big customer base. That said, it didn't seem like film was quite dead yet, at least on that fine day.

Randy

 

[Teuthida]

In some ways, these are exciting times for film. It's a transition from mass-market to niche market, and the niche is where fun things happen. Mass market has to appeal to the desire for mediocrity (look at most new houses, cars, cameras, restaurants, everyhing). Niche markets have to appeal to those who love those niches.

BINGO.....

 

[HHPhoto]

......

In other words, it reinforces my view that the 'death of film' is a VERY long way away, and that if it happens, if it isn't sheer lack of demand for film, it will be disappearance of the big players who do, in fact, make their own substrate.

Cheers,

R.

Hi Roger,

yes, and I am totally convinced that film will not dissappear, because it has lots of characteristics which can not be obtained by digital imaging.
The two methods are too different.

And for long term and archival storage (micro)film is the best, safest and most cost effective way.
All digital movies are stored on film for long term, with no exception. It is 5x - 10x cheaper with better safety than digital storage (source: digital movie makers).
Fuji has recently introduced new films for long term movie film storage.

(and by the way: with the new excellent Spur developers we can now use BW microfilms with excellent tonality even in our daily photography, this stuff is amazing).

And what most do forget in this discussion: There are lots of other technical film products used in other industries, but coated on the same machines as photo and movie film, for example PCB films for the computer industry, or films for panels and touch screens.
Millions of m² of such products are coated every year. There is an official statement from Agfa-Gevaert that are are coating 1 million m² of different film products every day (!). That is more than Ilfords film coating in a whole year.
At Agfa it's microfilms, aerial films, movie films and technical films like PCB (Printed Circuit Board) films.

These technical films are coated on the same machines as photo films, they deliver a huge "Grundlast" for economic production. Both Kodak and Ilford have declared that they intend to widen their product programme more into these growing market fields of different technical film products.
That makes it easier to keep photo film production cost effective because of better using of capacities.
Another growing market for coating is the pharmaceutical industry, InovisCoat for example is very engaged in this field.

Well, concerning photo films the future is lying in our hands, too.
We should stop wasting our time in these numerous doom and gloom threads in internet forums.
The time is much better used going out and shooting film, making pictures we can enjoy.
Shooting both BW and Color film, both negative and positive film.
We want that the choices stay, therefore we have to use all film types.

And encourage other photographers to use film. We have to spread the word.
If each current film photographer encourage at least another one or two photographer to shoot film as well, then photo film will be safe and well.

It is up to us, our task, let's go out, show our beautiful film pictures to others and encourage them to use film!

Cheers, Jan