BREXIT: UK members might want to consider GAS before the June 23 referendum

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tom.w.bn said:
That calculation of the net contribution is stupid in my eyes. According to that, Germany only gets back half of what it pays in. We would be stupid if we did this on a long term. What's not in the calculation is the amount we get back inderectly (market access -> export -> taxes and jobs; access to skilled workers who come to Germany). Of course it's hard to calculate but I'm sure in the end our county gets more out than it puts in.

But now we are inmidst of juggling with figures that you can either use for the stay- or equally for the leave-campaigners.

How ever you guys in GB decide, you end with a torn apart country (should it end almost 50:50).

This whole discussion is fuelled mainly by nationalism. A strong wind of rising nationalism blows over Europe. That's not a good thing. This pure egoism of countries brought us some ugly conflicts in the last couple of hundred years.
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Quite. Let those who will cry "Godwin's Law" but Hitler loved referendums: the perfect tool for appealing to emotion over facts and logic.

Cheers,

R.
 
tom.w.bn said:
That calculation of the net contribution is stupid in my eyes. According to that, Germany only gets back half of what it pays in. We would be stupid if we did this on a long term. What's not in the calculation is the amount we get back inderectly (market access -> export -> taxes and jobs; access to skilled workers who come to Germany). Of course it's hard to calculate but I'm sure in the end our county gets more out than it puts in.

But now we are inmidst of juggling with figures that you can either use for the stay- or equally for the leave-campaigners.

How ever you guys in GB decide, you end with a torn apart country (should it end almost 50:50).

This whole discussion is fuelled mainly by nationalism. A strong wind of rising nationalism blows over Europe. That's not a good thing. This pure egoism of countries brought us some ugly conflicts in the last couple of hundred years.
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Getting accurate data for any of this has been part of the problem. It makes it difficult to take a considered decision.

I prefer self determination to nationalism. GB will get on with it whatever the result and we will soon find something else to argue about🙂
 
I'm sticking with George Soros who has a verifiable track record understanding the value of currencies and who predicts a lot of damage to the UK economy if and when Brexit happens. Brexit will happen when emotions override common sense. If and when it goes wrong, 'leave' voters can't really be blamed: the incredibly complex consequences of 'leave' cannot be apprehended by the general public. While banks and institutional investors will hedge their bets, it's the general public that will pay the price. Let's see what happens tomorrow. All the major banks and financial institutions are ready to get their slice of the pie.
 
Calzone said:
Mike,

I by no means am saying that Americans or the U.S. are any better: I know we are part of the problem and can take some blame for having created many of them. My appologies to the world for for the suffering that has been created by my government.

What I report is not an invention. Many Russian Rubles and Chinese Yuan have bought Dollars and Pounds to buy luxury real estate where ownership is some LLC so ownership can not be traced or confiscated by foreign governments. There are entire blocks on the Upper East Side on or near 5th Avenue where people only live there for 3 months of a year. Now 57th Street is called Billionaire's Row where the tallest residential building in North America presides.

There are certain cities in the world beside London and NYC like Zurich and Monaco that allow/condone this bunkering that I speak of. All of these places are financial/banking centers where governments make it easy for people to hide wealth.

Stability is relative. I agree that the U.S. Dollar can not count on being a reserve currency indefinitely during a time of currency wars. New York City, a city of immigrants where 200 languages are spoken, happens to be one of the safest cities in the world. London is also a very safe city. The U.S. surely has a debt problem, yet our debt to GNP ratio is still better than say Japan.

Check out the ultra luxury housing markets in London and NYC. My statement is not bold at all it is just connecting the dots. What would you do if you were a billionaire from an unstable country? What would you do to preserve your wealth? What cities would allow you to maintain your prosperity? What countries have the military to protect your interests and assets?

Recently my girlfriend who is a fashion blogger was interviewed and videotaped in a 58.5 million dollar penthouse that had about 7600 interior square feet and about 3000 square feet of terrace that had unobstructed views of midtown Madhattan. Anyways it was obscene.

The complexity involved muddles understanding. I am greatful for the engagement. One thing to add to the discussion is that a growing population is necessary to have an expanding economy. Here in the U.S. we do not have a sustainable birth rate, and immigration has allowed our population to grow to be the third most populated country in the world.

Europe, the U.S. and Japan all have aging populations, so important economic demographics that effect productivity, GNP, and consumerism are all profoundly effected by the above demographic. I know that immigration is the key that makes NYC great. Without immigration and with a negative reproduction rate below 2.0 how will we sustain our countries without immigration?

Another thing to consider that might be a bad example is NAFTA that made Canada and Mexico the biggest trading partners with the U.S. Perhaps a much simpler and less complicated than the E.U. but on the scale of a continent. Mexico became the 11th largest economy in the world by some reports with an economy that now is larger than France.

If Trump gets elected, and if he is able to build his "wall" it is ironic that it would prevent the reverse migration that has been happening since the credit crisis where Mexicans that were illegals in the U.S. have returned to Mexico for better opportunities in their home country.

Also want to say that many immigrants and particularly illegal immigrants perform the jobs that Americans don't want. This is not to say or denigh that NAFTA exported manufacturing jobs and helped dissolve the power of unions.

Cal
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Cal

Thanks for your thoughtful reply. Now I understand the context of your comment, I find myself in agreement. The 'bunkering', as you describe it, of the super wealthy in London, New York and elsewhere is a real and disturbing phenomenon.

Interestingly, Ben Elton wrote a novel (Stark - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stark_(novel)) a few years ago, which considered a conspiracy of the super rich elite to escape to a moon settlement after they had used up all the world's resources to create their own wealth, destroying the environment in the process. More local bunkering may feel pretty similar in intent. Given the background to the wealth creation this raises many concerns.

Mike
 
Dante_Stella said:
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But the debate (in general) is one of the least intellectually rigorous exercises I've seen in a long time: xenophobes on one side and name-callers on the other. I don't see much but fear-mongering all around.
...
Dante

P.S. Maybe Brexiters have internalized Orwell's prediction of an Oceania, Eurasia, and East Asia.
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Sadly true, but inevitable when a government (ridiculously!) decides to call a referendum on such a very complex, but easily hijacked issue.

The leave campaign has deliberately adopted 'project fear', as a tactic to try and sway an electorate that cannot reasonably be expected to follow through complex economic, political and philosophical arguments. Particularly the case when the opposing campaign is equally devoid of any cogent intellectual content. Neither side has expected to win by winning the argument.

I did wonder about the Orwell reference myslef.

Mike
 
paulfish4570 said:
so, some of y'all are saying the people cannot possibly be trusted with such a complicated issue, because only the academics can grasp the niceties, correct? 🙂
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Paul,

I know that the media tends to dumb things down, and this makes people less thoughtful.

In this thread there are many reports of misinformation, manipulation of fact, and a lack of truth by both sides.

Anyways this is point in history that I think is mucho important, and even though the vote is by the people of the UK their decision has the potential to effect the whole world.

No expert, no politician, or really anyone can say or accurately predict all the good, the bad or the unintended consequences. This is a fools game, yet I understand people's nationalism, people's own self interest, and how there are strong arguments.

For me it is really hard to judge.

I would be very concerned if I was a European, and I am very concerned about European Foreign Policy as an American. This smelly election coming this November could compound European security because of two opposing Foreign Policies: one is to maintain NATO; and the other is to let Europe to defend itself alone.

Like the current vote in the UK it is like which is better: cutting off my left arm; or my right. Post World War II Foreign Policy is supported by one candidate, but we live in a different world and can longer be the policeman of the world. Can you predict the future and say which policy ensures security; or which policy can avoid another war?

Much respect for everyones' voice...

Cal
 
Calzone said:
W,

I recently read James A. Mitchner's historical novel titled "Poland."

Let's not forget the Teutonic Knights. Poland was invaded and conquered even though they were already firmly a Christian country. That is part of the 500 years of religious wars if you count part of Eastern Europe (Poland).

Cal
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Yes the Teutonic Knights were good, I especially liked their "Crusade of the North" when they destroyed the last pagan folk in Europe, the Prussians (the real ones, not the Cristian Germans who settled their land after the war).

Good job and no wonder why Himmler considered them the spiritual antecessors of the SS.
 
Wulfthari said:
Yes the Teutonic Knights were good, I especially liked their "Crusade of the North" when they destroyed the last pagan folk in Europe, the Prussians (the real ones, not the Cristian Germans who settled their land after the war).

Good job and no wonder why Himmler considered them the spiritual antecessors of the SS.
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But they have got their a*** kicked in the battle of Grunwald, which was very much the end of their military power. So I would not say that they have exactly conquered Poland...
 
valdas said:
But they have got their a*** kicked in the battle of Grunwald, which was very much the end of their military power. So I would not say that they have exactly conquered Poland...
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I am talking about the Crusade against the Prussians, that were the Third Baltic Tribe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prussian_uprisings#The_Great_Prussian_Uprising_.281260.E2.80.931274.29

They have done a great job making them "disappear" from History, like Charlesmagne with the Avars.
 
Wulfthari said:
I am talking about the Crusade against the Prussians, that were the Third Baltic Tribe:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prussian_uprisings#The_Great_Prussian_Uprising_.281260.E2.80.931274.29

They have done a great job making them "disappear" from History, like Charlesmagne with the Avars.
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Yes, my comment was more relevant to Calzone's post. Surely, I remeber very well the sad story of Prussians and the uprising led by Herkus Monte. He was very much an inspirational figure for Baltic people during Soviet occupation.
 
citizen99 said:
I wish to be governed by a Parliament that I and my fellow citizens can elect and dismiss.
The EU leadership has demonstrated that it will not voluntarily reform, and will not listen to the citizens. 'Alle Menschen werden Brüder' is not possible inside the EU now, and things are getting worse. There is no point in the UK staying in to 'help'; we are regularly out-voted on material issues. We can first save ourselves outside.

The leaving process will be gradual, and the economics will adjust themselves; the economy is not a 'linear' system.

John.
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We currently have a government being investigated for widespread electoral fraud, and who may therefore be an illegitimate government.

Who have responded to defeats in the Lords by threatening to pack the Lords with their own supporters to force policies through, and by using Statutory Instruments to bypass the democratic process entirely.

We are in no position to lecture anyone anywhere about democracy.

MEPs are elected.

As far as being regularly outvoted on material issues, that's utter nonsense I'm afraid. According to the voting records, the way our representatives have voted, and the results match 95% of the time.

Sorry, but it's just not true.

There are big problems in Europe, I do think it needs fixing, but we can't do any of that from outside of it.
 
Roger Hicks said:
Why is any currency worth anything? In the last 50 years, the pound/dollar exchange rate has ranged between $2.80 and $1.10. It's not really all that high at the moment.

British unemployment is lower than in most of the EU. Take a look at https://www.google.fr/search?q=unem...firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&ei=kI1pV4XvGq7S8Af0zYHQAw -- you can drag a cursor from January 2007 to April 2015.

Cheers,

R.
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Apologies for stating the obvious here, but since the reign of IDS, those figures are more unreliable than they have ever been.

The real numbers are significantly higher.

This isn't a pro/anti brexit comment, just that the "official" figures on this subject are wildly fictional.
 
Borge H said:
Real refugees should of course be given help, but some people just want to improve their lives in a country with better living conditions and welfare. That is why many of them want to go Britain, Germany or Sweden. Many of the former eastern countries, like Hungary, accepts no immigrants. EU tries to make them change their views. It is narrow minded of them, as many of us remember the refugees from communism.🙄
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I can't speak for Germany or Sweden, but the narrative that Britain's welfare is one of the most generous in Europe, despite being often repeated (by those making cuts to it), is dispelled as soon as actual figures are looked at.

In terms of living conditions, a proposed law that all rental properties must be "fit for human habitation" was talked out of parliament.
We might talk a good game about it, but the reality is sadly different.
 
BlackXList said:
I can't speak for Germany or Sweden, but the narrative that Britain's welfare is one of the most generous in Europe, despite being often repeated (by those making cuts to it), is dispelled as soon as actual figures are looked at.

In terms of living conditions, a proposed law that all rental properties must be "fit for human habitation" was talked out of parliament.
We might talk a good game about it, but the reality is sadly different.
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If I may say something on the matter your NHS is worthy of a Third World country, I lived in Italy, Austria, Denmark and Sweden and all of them are miles ahead of the UK in this sense...the Torys have decided to go with the American system that means "if you can't pay you won't be cured".

Just the fact that I've to pay £8 for a prescription says it all.
 
Wulfthari said:
If I may say something on the matter your NHS is worthy of a Third World country, I lived in Italy, Austria, Denmark and Sweden and all of them are miles ahead of the UK in this sense...the Torys have decided to go with the American system that means "if you can't pay you won't be cured".

Just the fact that I've to pay £8 for a prescription says it all.
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It's being deliberately starved so that they can make the argument "it's not fit for purpose, we need to bring in private companies".

It's beyond a tragedy that we're heading in that direction.
I'm sure there are all sorts of issues within the NHS, I just think it's important to pinpoint why they're there.

Prescription fees don't apply in Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland, just England (where I live).

I agree completely that it's a disgrace.
 
David Hughes said:
Hi,
Isn't it interesting to hear Australian and American views on immigration; and here's me thinking that both countries are 99% immigrant descended.
Regards, David
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We certainly are a nation of immigrants, but don't get confused between immigrants who are still entering this country today through the front door...and we are fulfilling our quota...and the "illegal immigrants" arriving by boat on our shores. Now the problem with majority of us here is that we are suckered into believing that it is about multiculturalism, when it ain't....it is just Islam coming in the back door....and because as Australians we have this trust issue with that religion at the moment, we don't want it here. If Europe wants to increase their intake of Muslims, good luck to them.
The Right wing is growing massively here due to this issue, and that's not good either. So you see David, the whole world is in a s**t at the moment. Cheers.
 
BlackXList said:
Apologies for stating the obvious here, but since the reign of IDS, those figures are more unreliable than they have ever been.

The real numbers are significantly higher.

This isn't a pro/anti brexit comment, just that the "official" figures on this subject are wildly fictional.
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On government statistics, ay true story.

My significant other is a psych but also a criminologist. When she left uni she worked in a study on the functioning of local police. For two years she worked and lived with cops did their training, patrols and all.

During that period there came an unofficial suggestion to be less active on the streets and yes crime statistics went down.

This is of course 30 years ago so things might have changed :angel:

I also fondly remember how unemployment figures went down by renaming parts of the unemployed population.


I do not like to commit to strongly to any side in whichever discussion until I get correct data.
Then again that will probably never happen.
So in the mean time I try to be friendly and open however hard this may be. Realizing I miss out on that wonderful feeling of having a strong conviction and being right.
 
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