BREXIT: UK members might want to consider GAS before the June 23 referendum

[Roger Hicks]

Roger, I understand fully what you're saying, as I also understand why these people signed. Yes, the whole thing was a shambles on both sides and none of the "facts" presented were indeed facts. This is largely because the "facts" related to a future that had not happened. However, we could ALL have abstained from voting if we didn't like the terms (something that I admit was not a likely scenario). We elect politicians and governments on more tenuous "majorities" so I still don't see how the result doesn't stand.

An election is not a constitutional change. That's all.

I'd normally be as averse as you are to retrospective legislation but given that the financial consequences have already started to happen in the way that Remain said they would, and given the Brexiteers have already admitted they were lying, I support a re-run as the lesser of two evils.

Petition currently (9:44 GMT) standing at over 1,000,000.

Cheers,

R.

 

[Wulfthari]

I think you have to have a heart before you need to worry about its failure. You seem to be a right little ray of sunshine with your incessant whinging, breathtaking sense of entitlement and unashamed bigotry ("muslims in the East End, etc."). I feel saddened by the recent vote but not because of the consequences for me and people of my generation (I'm in my forties) but for my daughter and other young people. For you, it seems to be entirely about "me, me, me".🙄

I find it funny that you call me bigot as the current campaign has been conducted by people like Johnson and Farage against us...that's another example of double standard of the British society: you can insult Romanians, people from Eastern Europe (I heard a brexiter who proposed to fill the tunnel of the channel with Poles) etc...but if you say something about British Muslims you're a bigot!🙄

And yes I think about myself and my generation: all my worries are shared by all the EU people working here, as well as the UK citizens under 30 according to the vote analysis. Also most of my UK colleagues are nervous and HR had to send an email ensuring that the company will remain in the UK....that didn't sound reassuring at all.

I am an EU citizen living in UK. As a result of Brexit, me and my family are facing possibly deportation. If I could vote in this referendum, I would have voted to remain.


But that would have been out of fear for my family's future rather than because we need to save the EU.


There is something important that citizens of the 'rich EU North' do not understand. That their prosperity counts on the fact that the poor south (Greece, Spain, Italy) will have to submit to everlasting austerity – this way it allows EU fund to flow from EU banks to local banks and get paid again as tax back to rich German/French/British banks. This is the first time after WW2 that there has been such a rich north and so poor south. Businesses and corporations have been bought for a loaf of bread by big German companies over the last few years in Greece.
The EU survives on this model, it needs cheap labour from countries of the poor south. Austerity is sustained via 'Credit events'. Visit Wikileaks (click here) to read the transcript of a discussion between two IMF officials, Mr Tomsen and Mrs Velkouleskou planing a 'credit event' in order to force Greek government to accept the new austerity measures – feel free to be disgusted. IMF stated 'No comment', the EU embraced it in silence. Greece is facing austerity for 7 years now. This is the true face of the EU (if you are not privileged to live on the North.


How do Greek members of this forum feels about the Brexit? What about the Spanish and Italians of this forum – they are potentially the 'next-Greece'? I would love to hear their view on Brexit.

I express my view and I've been called a bigot etc...just because I pointed out the obvious: that some people in the UK are more fine with second or third generation British muslims than with immigrants from Greece, Spain, Italy but also French and Germany (it's not a matter of North vs. South, the worst attacks I've heard from the brexiters were for the French).

Having said that you don't face immediate risk of deportation if you have a job, the real problem is that if a long cold economic winter comes (and it's likely) your job is at risk, the UK won't give you any benefits to give you some time to look for another job and then you will be deported.

In short, those who decided to come and work in the UK may have bidded on the wrong horse.

All through this process all parties have stated strongly that there will be no repatriation of any EU nationals living and working in the UK so you have nothing to worry about. People from Europe lived and worked in the UK long before freedom of movement came into being but generally you did have to have a job and a visa. I don't see the situation becoming any worse than that and probably much less stringent.

You are using the same arguments of Johnson and Farage...no repatriation? So what happens if I and the other member of this board lose our job on Monday? Technically we'll become unemployed, no access to benefits (actually even if I pay here the NI tax I have already been denied access to the NHS, but that's another story), possibility to find new jobs will be scarce, cost of living is expensive...in short it will become like a deportation or better a self deportation. That's the way it will go and I hope not to be here when it happens.

Now, back to spam resumes on the Continent.

 

[kuuan]

..and given the Brexiteers have already admitted they were lying, I support a re-run as the lesser of two evils.

Petition currently (9:44 GMT) standing at over 1,000,000.

Cheers,

R.

this vote is about the future of GB, right? hm..75% of aged 19-24 had voted "remain" ( 56% of the aged 25-49 for remain, 56% of the aged 50-64 for leave, 61% of the 65+ for leave )

https://twitter.com/hashtag/NotInMyName?src=hash
https://twitter.com/hashtag/WhatHaveWeDone?src=hash

a rough traslation from the front page of a popular Austrian newspaper:
"Politics that turn backwards historically have proven to be dead alleys. Because "back" is not a concept but a vague refuge, a construct of defiance, nostalgia und hope of refuge in a romanticised yesterday which is supposed to somehow make the withered bloom again.
Because traditionalism can keep the future at a distance but cannot turn back clocks this "back" doesn't work. This "back", the "return" had been the magic word of the Brexit protagonists. Now they can't deliver what they had promised and will have to find new scape goats. Or they must admit that "back" isn't a place nor a time in which it's good to live.
May the past catch up and lead us in a future in which everything will be as it was, but better? - who believes in that will wake up in a tomorrow which had the rug pulled out from under it's feet from the today and for which the yesterday doesn't offer any solutions"

 

[Roger Hicks]

this vote is about the future of GB, right? hm..75% of aged 19-24 had voted "remain"

https://twitter.com/hashtag/NotInMyName?src=hash
https://twitter.com/hashtag/WhatHaveWeDone?src=hash

a rough traslation from the front page of a local, Austrian newspaper:
"Politics that turn backwards historically have proven to be dead alleys. Because "back" is not a concept but a vague refuge, a construct of defiance, nostalgia und hope of refuge in a romanticised yesterday which is supposed to somehow make the withered bloom again.
Because traditionalism can keep the future at a distance but cannot turn back clocks this "back" doesn't work. This "back", the "return" had been the magic word of the Brexit protagonists. Now they can't deliver what they had promised and will have to find new scape goats. Or they must admit that "back" isn't a place nor a time in which it's good to live.
May the past catch up and lead us in a future in which everything will be as it was, but better? - who believes in that will wake up in a tomorrow which had the rug pulled out from under it's feet from the today and for which the yesterday doesn't offer any solutions"

Wow! As you say, a rough old translation (though I'd have to struggle very hard to read the German without a parallel text) but a superb analysis! May I lift this quote for the Amateur Photographer forum where a similar debate is raging?

Cheers,

R.

 

[Lss]

HR had to send an email ensuring that the company will remain in the UK....that didn't sound reassuring at all.

In other words, they are at least considering an exit very seriously.

 

[kuuan]

Wow! As you say, a rough old translation (though I'd have to struggle very hard to read the German without a parallel text) but a superb analysis! May I lift this quote for the Amateur Photographer forum where a similar debate is raging?

Cheers,

R.

of course you have my permission Roger..though I am not so sure if the newspaper could have something against me having offered this translation in the first place...😉
oh, I have an idea: to be safe I add a link to the online version of the same newspaper, an article concerning Brexit by it's chief editor:
http://kurier.at/meinung/kommentare/innenpolitik/wer-fuehrt-voelker-und-menschen-zueinander/206.273.25

 

[Wulfthari]

In other words, they are at least considering an exit very seriously.

Let's say that every big company (not just automotive) has many plants in the world, if the company is not toxic ( like some Italian companies who in the early 2000s outsourced the production to the Far East to close the domest plants, laid off people and get more money) it does this because there are custom duties to pay to import, for instance a car in China, or in Brazil, so in order to remain competitive they open a plant to serve that economic area.

Now, not talking about a particular company, but in general a UK based factory can import components from their European suppliers, build the car, and sell it in the common market.

If the company already has a plant in Europe usually the split favours the domestic plant (for obvious reasons) but if the UK leaves the EU it makes sense for that company to shift all the production that is sold in the EU market in the EU plant, I think it makes sense.

Let's say the volumes of the production for this company is 10% UK 30% rest of the EU...how do you think they will split the production between the UK and EU plant?

Regarding Aerospace, all the companies operating in the UK are either members of EADS (Airbus, a EU consortium) or BAE, that is active in many joint ventures with Finmeccanica, EADS etc...

But all this doesn't matter, let's celebrate Independence Day!

 

[Spanik]

The UK has less reason to leave the Eurozone than most other countries because they retained monetary sovereignty. It's Greece and Spain that should bail.

The UK never was part of the eurozone to start with. Hard to leave something you aren't in. This is the stuff that is troubling the issue. Hardly anyone knows or understands what part of the EU the UK is leaving or is going to belong to. And the politicians aren't helping of course, that would not help their "plans".

As it is now, the UK is part of:
- European Union which includes:
- organisation for security and co-operation in europe
- single euro payments area
- european olympic cimmittees
- european common aviation area
- european civil aviation area
- european committee for standardisation
- european telecommunications standardisations institute
- european committee for electrotechnical standardisation
- european patent convention
- european atomic energy committee
- european higher education area
- European Customs Union
- European Economic Area
- Council of Europe
- plenty of other european organisations, from ESA to CERN.

The UK is not a member of:
- eurozone
- schengen area

 

[Roger Hicks]

of course you have my permission Roger..though I am not so sure if the newspaper could have something against me having offered this translation in the first place...😉
oh, I have an idea: to be safe I add a link to the online version of the same newspaper, an article concerning Brexit by it's chief editor:
http://kurier.at/meinung/kommentare/innenpolitik/wer-fuehrt-voelker-und-menschen-zueinander/206.273.25

Great, thanks. Link now added on the AP site.

I loved the opening sentence in the original!

Cheers,

R.

 

[ian_watts]

I find it funny that you call me bigot as the current campaign has been conducted by people like Johnson and Farage against us...that's another example of double standard of the British society: you can insult Romanians, people from Eastern Europe (I heard a brexiter who proposed to fill the tunnel of the channel with Poles) etc...but if you say something about British Muslims you're a bigot!🙄

Yes, you might find it funny but there is nothing ironic or inconsistent in my point nor is it an example of double standards. Johnson and Farage have indeed behaved despicably and are IMO an embarrassment to the UK but that doesn't make your comments any less unpleasant. You are right that many people have been overtly prejudiced against EU citizens living in this country – and that is entirely regrettable – but I think you are mistaken if you think that (the majority of) those who have displayed such small minded xenophobia "prefer" British muslims.

 

[ian_watts]

An election is not a constitutional change. That's all.

I'd normally be as averse as you are to retrospective legislation but given that the financial consequences have already started to happen in the way that Remain said they would, and given the Brexiteers have already admitted they were lying, I support a re-run as the lesser of two evils.
.

I'm not sure a straight re-run will fly politically but a way out of this dire situation would be for an explicit mandate to be sought for how the UK should handle the situation going forward. This would probably mean a general election and a timely consideration of the options that the UK might seek to negotiate for – EEA option, WTO terms or a decision (which I favour) to ultimately not trigger article 50 and seek to reform from within. To this end, I think it is important that the EU leaders calm down and stop pressing the UK to start the leave negotiations now. It would benefit everyone if a decision was made to spend at least a year considering the various options that the UK might have before putting this back before the electorate, either indirectly via a general election (especially if there is significant party divergence on the ways forward) or, less desirably, by a further referendum. Forcing the issue over the summer seems utterly crazy to me and will do untold damage to all interested parties.

 

[Roger Hicks]

I'm not sure a straight re-run will fly politically but a way out of this dire situation would be for an explicit mandate to be sought for how the UK should handle the situation going forward. This would probably mean a general election and a timely consideration of the options that the UK might seek to negotiate for – EEA option, WTO terms or a decision (which I favour) to ultimately not trigger article 50 and seek to reform from within. To this end, I think it is important that the EU leaders calm down and stop pressing the UK to start the leave negotiations now. It would benefit everyone if a decision was made to spend at least a year considering the various options that the UK might have before putting this back before the electorate, either indirectly via a general election (especially if there is significant party divergence on the ways forward) or, less desirably, by a further referendum. Forcing the issue over the summer seems utterly crazy to me and will do untold damage to all interested parties.

Dear Ian,

An extremely elegant proposal! Brilliant!

Cheers,

R.

 

[fireblade]

So the 48% don't like the result? Oh dear, belief in a democracy, a fantasy. I was once told, in a democracy dogs devour dogs and you need one in charge with the whip.
Such is life.

 

[___ole kekkonen]

we dont know the results yet🙂

 

[Austerby]

So the 48% don't like the result? Oh dear, belief in a democracy, a fantasy. I was once told, in a democracy dogs devour dogs and you need one in charge with the whip.
Such is life.

Total electorate is 46.6m, of which 17.4m voted to leave = 37.34%

Where's the democracy when less than 38% of voters determine the future of the entire electorate?

 

[Roger Hicks]

So the 48% don't like the result? Oh dear, belief in a democracy, a fantasy. I was once told, in a democracy dogs devour dogs and you need one in charge with the whip.
Such is life.

So: you object to the democratic idea of people opposing things they don't like? Remember: in classical Marxist thought, the dictatorship of the proletariat (which has never been observed in the wild) is an intermediate state between capitalism and communism: https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1919/sep/x02.htm

Cheers,

R.

 

[Wulfthari]

http://www.economist.com/news/brita...will-be-new-prime-minister-volatile-financial

A rather straightforward explanation of what the options are:

"In practice the EU will offer Britain only two possible deals. The first is to join Norway in the European Economic Area. This would preserve full access to the single market. But, like Norway, Britain would have to make a hefty contribution to the EU budget (Norway pays about 85% as much as Britain per head), observe all EU single-market regulations with no say in making them and, crucially, accept free movement of people from the EU. It is hard to imagine a post-Brexit government accepting this. The second is a free-trade deal like the EU’s with Canada. Yet this does not cover all trade, does not eliminate non-tariff barriers, excludes most financial services and could take years to agree.

The other option for Britain is to revert to trading with the EU as America, China and India do, under normal World Trade Organisation rules. But most economists say this would make the economic damage from Brexit worse. It would bring back mutual tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals, food and fish. It would reinstate many non-tariff barriers. And it would exclude most services, including financial services.

The pound slumped to its lowest level against the dollar since 1985. ... Most economists agree with the Treasury that the British economy is now likely to fall into recession."

So let's see:

1) Option number 1 the things will remain the same BUT the UK will effectively lose the representation to Brussels (that the Brexiters say they don't have anyway).

2) Return to custom barriers that will hurt the UK because they import more of what they export.

Both options are worse than the current status quo, it appears the Brexiters have done a masterpiece: besides that they were successful in doing what Napoleon, William the Second and Hitler couldn't do...destroy the UK.😱

 

[pyeh]

Ian Watts, thank you for trying to take Wulftari to task. I thought I was the only one appalled. There are other contributors to this thread who I find unedifying, and possibly out of line by being neither British nor from the EU. The picking on Arsenii and the poor chap who made the mistake of misspelling "illiterate" really were low points.
The other thing I wonder about in this whole thread is why it hasn't been shut down by RFF given it is highly political and not at all photographic (apart from feeble attempts to invoke Ilford and some camera stores) but I do applaud the RFF Standing Committee for allowing this diversion, because really this place could do with some relief.

 

[fireblade]

So: you object to the democratic idea of people opposing things they don't like? Remember: in classical Marxist thought, the dictatorship of the proletariat (which has never been observed in the wild) is an intermediate state between capitalism and communism: https://www.marxists.org/archive/lenin/works/1919/sep/x02.htm Cheers, R.

Anarchy is knocking on the front door.

Total electorate is 46.6m, of which 17.4m voted to leave = 37.34%
Where's the democracy when less than 38% of voters determine the future of the entire electorate?

Exactly, let's watch the dogs maul each other from the sidelines.

 

[David Hughes]

The problem with this is, do you keep re-running the referendum until those who don't like the result (any side) get their way? My opinion for what it is worth is that there should have been a much greater majority required over such a contentious matter. I would have been happy with a two thirds majority requirement. At least then there might have been less post referendum animosity.

Hmmm, I seem to recall suggesting this in my earlier post No: 226 on page 6 of this thread...

Regards, David

PS What is annoying is that promises of all sorts are forgotten by them and they have to remember this one.