BREXIT: UK members might want to consider GAS before the June 23 referendum

Status
Not open for further replies.
raid said:
It would be the z test for a proportion where we test the hypothesis that p is less or equal to 50% versus p exceeds 50%. With such a huge "sample", of course the test will be significant. The difference between BREXT support and REMAIN support is non-zero, and it favored BREXT.

This is a statistically significant difference, but is it a meaningful difference on the ground? In clinical trials, we often hear a similar argument. It is of statistical significance, but is it of clinical significance? Drug X shows a 0.1% improvement in the patients over Drug Y. Is it of clinical relevance?
Click to expand...

My statistics is limited to photography, unfortunately. We would only say the film is good, or no-good. This held until an old Japanese gentleman told me there was another case, no-good, but ok!. Perhaps the clinical side defines these kind of cases.

I am lucky I no longer need stats to earn an income, mine is quite dated. Worked for that old plus-x though!😉
 
raid said:
You guys are butchering statistics as it is known!
Click to expand...

That's why I decided to get my limited statistics education from formal course work rather than internet forums, same with economics. An amazing number of people confuse mean (arithmetic average) with median and think that half of the occurences fall below and half above the mean.

That said, there really is no need for considering complicated statistics of the Brexit vote, if the rules are simple majority wins. The results are unfortunate and will be far reaching. But I wouldn't think that there is much possibility of nullifying the results and having a do-over without a huge loss of credibility in the process and some extremely angry "Leave" supporters.
 
paulfish4570 said:
nah, Raid, whining. on this site it's the stupid (like me) vs. the elite (like roger).

as ever it shall be. except, i'm not stupid ... 🙂
Click to expand...

Hi Paul ,

You can only sell a lie for so long. It's gotten to the point that the common man and woman realize they have been taken. If the elites do not adjust their attitudes - and quickly - there will be hell to pay all around.

Sadly, some of us, and clearly not members of the elite, continue to buy into the lie - just because a 'good old boy' like you has seen through the ruse! ;-)

Randy
 
RObert Budding said:
Correction: Britain voted to leave the European Union. I did make the point that the UK made the right choice in not adopting the Euro, though my phrasing was sloppy.
Click to expand...

Correction: Britain without Scotland. That means England + Wales voted to leave.

Northern Ireland voted to stay but they are not in Britain.

Besides the (dis) United Kingdom both major parties are self destroying:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...-prime-minister-tory-mps-boris-johnson-leade/
 
Roger Hicks said:
Eh? Would you care to explain what you mean by that?
For that matter, can you explain what you mean by that?
Cheers, R.
Click to expand...

State of disorder.
Sweden will probably go next followed by one or two more.
The next Greek crisis is coming.
Scotland now wants to hold another referendum, the second one, to become independent from England...therefore remain in the EU....They better hurry before all the paperwork is done.
Turkey is smiling.
As one who has been run over by the Karma bus, and a great believer of reaping what you sow.....Karma is having a wonderful day with England, but that's a long story for another day.
Cheers.
 
I just read that this is the beginning of the end for the EU..and that a fiscal crisis the size of 2008 is on the way..
Don't know if that's going to happen or not..but...this is serious biz..not to be trifled with..
 
raid said:
It would be the z test for a proportion where we test the hypothesis that p is less or equal to 50% versus p exceeds 50%. With such a huge "sample", of course the test will be significant. The difference between BREXIT support and REMAIN support is non-zero, and it favored BREXIT.

This is a statistically significant difference, but is it a meaningful difference on the ground? In clinical trials, we often hear a similar argument. It is of statistical significance, but is it of clinical significance? Drug X shows a 0.1% improvement in the patients over Drug Y. Is it of clinical relevance?
Click to expand...

Not really an analogous situation. Winning by a tiny bit delivers a complete cure so far as the Brexiters are concerned. The cost and side effects of the therapy never concerned them. Indeed, they maintained that the cost was negative.
 
Interesting how some just don't get it. There is an upheaval. In Australia we have the luxury of being a nation on an island continent. But Americans have a border with Canada and Mexico. Under other historical circumstances many who currently don't understand the complexity of cross-border trans-national grouping might after all.
 
fireblade said:
Sweden will probably go next followed by one or two more.
Click to expand...

I don't know where you get this from, but I assure you Sweden isn't going anywhere. The universal reaction here is total bemusement, mixed with horror at the backward-looking, fear-mongering, racist campaigning of the leave camp.

There's an underlying problem which Brexit shares with Trump in the States: the fear and confusion of the working classes, as their place in the global economy has become uncertain, and their distrust of what they perceive as distant political elites has grown.

As always, instead of turning on those that are responsible, their hatred and anger is deflected upon the weakest in the social order - outsiders, immigrants, refugees.

It's easy for the unscrupulous and evil to manipulate the atavistic tendencies of the angry masses. What scares me most, as the hyper-rich horde their totally inconceivable piles of lucre, is that their are political jackals sniffing the putrid air and sensing the time is ripe for them to openly hunt in ways that haven't been possible for over 70 years.
 
mani said:
I don't know where you get this from, but I assure you Sweden isn't going anywhere. The universal reaction here is total bemusement, mixed with horror at the backward-looking, fear-mongering, racist campaigning of the leave camp.

There's an underlying problem which Brexit shares with Trump in the States: the fear and confusion of the working classes, as their place in the global economy has become uncertain, and their distrust of what they perceive as distant political elites has grown.

As always, instead of turning on those that are responsible, their hatred and anger is deflected upon the weakest in the social order - outsiders, immigrants, refugees.

It's easy for the unscrupulous and evil to manipulate the atavistic tendencies of the angry masses. What scares me most, as the hyper-rich horde their totally inconceivable piles of lucre, is that their are political jackals sniffing the putrid air and sensing the time is ripe for them to openly hunt in ways that haven't been possible for over 70 years.
Click to expand...

Quite an agglomeration of clichés, slogans and prejudice. Not an ounce of understanding or an attempt to see why so many are displeased. Thus the 'Leave' is so bewildering. And when it happens in Sweden or the Netherlands or Italy, I'm sure the elites will be even more bemused and befuddled. Or in the case of Sweden and its unending flood of hostile migrants and "rapefugees", they'll be strangers in their own homes. Maybe only then will they forward a petition to Brussels for help. The EU mandarins will send a commission to see what's up. Or just tell everyone to shut up because they're "Racists".
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom