CIPA 2014 data published today

[Skiff]

Digital:
I assume nobody replaces a functioning digital camera these days with a newer one because the progress is not relevant any more. That was still different some years ago; if you had a camera some more years old then, it was actually poor by current standards.

That is over now. If this assumption was true, we should see the digital camera market flatting out to a replacement level; they will only sell to replace damaged cameras.

That is correct. And it will also mean the sales will continue to fall significantly until this level is reached (probably another 40-50%).
The consequence for the manufacturers:
Their customers are using the cameras longer and longer.
The "we sell the customer a new camera only after 2-3 years" strategy is not working anymore.
The customers are using now their DSLRs for using periods which are very similar to the using / upgrading periods of film SLRs 10 - 20 years ago.

That means: For the manufacturer it does not make a significant difference anymore whether they sell a digital or a film camera (or both) to their customer.
That is part of the new business model of Leica. Give the customer what he wants, be it film or digital.
DHW with their Hy6 Mod.2 has the same strategy.

 

[Skiff]

I can not believe how good clean 500CM and newer bodies have dried up, whoa man! The two 501CM’s I paid $450 and $480 for in new condition 3-4 years ago are now way, way up there in price. You used to be able to find good 500CM kits with an Acute Matte screen for less than a grand all day long, even as low as $650 with a modern CF 80 and regular screen. Now KEH is like a desert, eBay is just silly with kits fetching $1,200++ if you can even find them. A12 backs are going up in price a bit too but good modern CF lenses for now are holding steady and have not really changed much over the past 4 years.

So yeah, lots of film stuff is out there to be had, but the better stuff, the gear you want for all kinds of reasons inducing parts still being on the shelves….I think it is starting to become a sellers market, demand is steadily rising, no new stuff being made and prices are quite possibly rising over all.

+1.
Used high quality gear in good condition will have price increases.
Consequence:
For the manufacturers it will be more attractive to offer new gear.

There is already a perfect example for that: The Voigtländer Bessa III.
Cosina was very clever: They looked at the used market and saw that the Plaubel Makina in good condition was
- seldom
- priced in the 1000 - 1500$ range.
So if photographers pay such a sum for a camera more than 30 years old, there is a very good chance that they pay about 2000$ for a complete new model.
That was CV's strategy.
And it was right. It worked successfully.

That is what we will see in the future: Market gaps for certain camera types are indicated by higher / increasing prices.
And in that categories we will see new film cameras.

By the way: In summer 2008 really no one, not even the film enthusiasts, had expected that at Photokina 2008 such a camera will be introduced.

 

[jschrader]

The "we sell the customer a new camera only after 2-3 years" strategy is not working anymore.
The customers are using now their DSLRs for using periods which are very similar to the using / upgrading periods of film SLRs 10 - 20 years ago.

I agree with your conclusion; only, digital cameras do not work for that many years as analog cameras did and do. One dead capacitor or crack in the LCD and the thing is beyond repair.....:bang:

 

[Skiff]

I agree with your conclusion; only, digital cameras do not work for that many years as analog cameras did and do. One dead capacitor or crack in the LCD and the thing is beyond repair.....:bang:

You are absolutely right.
I've probably written my idea not precise enough (sorry, English is not my native language).

I will try to make it more precise and understandable:
From 1970 - 2004 we had the following upgrade cycles with film SLRs (on average):
Consumer models:
About every 4-5 years the manufacturers introduced a complete new model.
Prosumer models:
5 - 6 years.
Professional models:
6 - 8 years.

The "gear heads" (the minority of all consumers) bought each new model that was introduced.
But the majority of consumers and enthusiasts mostly did a kind of "leap-frogging": They did not buy every next model, but the second next model.
So they updated their camera in a 10 - 16 year cycle. Their former model still worked flawlesly: So they either sold it, or kept it as a second body / backup body.

Now with digital cameras we are returning to such a consumer behaviour: Longer using times for the DSLRs before upgrading, similar to the "upgrading behaviour" of the film era.
And in such a market it makes no significant difference for the manufacturers whether they sell a digital or a film camera to their customers.

So far the camera manufacturers did such a strong promotion of digital because they want to force the photographers to buy a new cam in a 2-3 year cycle.
That worked in the beginning years, but it does not work now in an oversaturated and matured market anymore.
The customers are realizing that
- not the camera, but the photographer is the decisive factor / bottleneck for picture quality
- upgrading in a 2-3 year cycle is extremely expensive and cannot be afforded by the "average joe".

 

[KM-25]

Either manufacturers build new cameras and parts, or there is an end time to this equipment. A long way in the future perhaps, and some parts can always be handmade, but repair will become very expensive 10 or 15 years from now.

This is why companies like Kodak Alaris, Foma, Ferrania and *especially* Ilford Harman need to not rest on their laurels but instead need to invest in equipment procurement and recycling strategies that help keep good working equipment in the hands of customers of their films and papers.

This is my number one concern regarding the future health of the analog photography niche. Not everyone can go to the lengths I have to make sure they have tons of both camera and darkroom gear and it is starting to dry up in certain ways.

Someone needs to create a film company subsidized analog equipment restoration outfit that scoops up darkroom & camera equipment that is offered on the open market, clean it up, repair it and then offer it for sale in restored condition. This company would be on the cutting edge of both CNC machining & 3-D printing in order to overcome parts issues and offer repair services through both in house and efficiently networked outside repairmen.

One added benefit to this could be the offering of old restored gear like enlargers that would be beautiful to look at like a nice fire engine red hammertone Beseler 45 series or crazy stuff like a giant iPad as a portfolio case that shuffles your prints front to back like a giant Grafmatic. The sky is truly the limit here but I see not a damn thing being done about it, at least not like "Impossible" has with their cameras and film.

But given enough effort and proper underwriting, parts for some of the much better cameras that are not electronic like Nikons, Leicas and Hasselblads, etc. can be made with today's technologies. New cameras for film are a tough sell with the used market the way it is and besides, old cameras like my beautifully restored 60 year old M3 hold far more appeal for many than a brand new multi-thousand dollar Leica film body.

Procurement, restoration and sales of used analog equipment is a cottage industry that is now plum-ripe for someone to fire up. If no one steps up soon, more often than not, literally *tons* of great darkroom equipment will have missed their targets and hit the landfill.

WAKE UP film makers! This means YOU!

 

[KM-25]

I believe restoration is key, you obtain enough equipment to provide you with parts that are not easily made until they can be. It could never be 100% foolproof but I bet at least in the case of darkroom equipment, would be fairly effective.

If this restoration business were in full swing right now, it would likely extend the overall footprint of usable analog gear by a good 20 years. I think it is far more effective a strategy to restore than make new equipment.

It's not unlike adopting a cat or dog from a shelter rather than buying one from a pet store or breeder. There is nobility and humility in that and people respond to it.

Ilford Harman needs to start an "animal shelter" for darkroom & camera equipment....otherwise they will see "pet food" sales eventually drop....

 

[YYV_146]

Digital cameras are throwaway goods. If you get enough mileage out of one, it eventually breaks. I've seen Canon 1d bodies with well over a million frames, but they too will break and become un-repairable because of a discontinued component or something. Film cameras are to a certain degree too, but Leica is perhaps the exception. There are many, many film cameras that simply cannot be repaired without cannibalizing a similar body.

So I don't think this announcement spells good news for film specifically. If there are less digital bodies being sold film as a definition will look more popular. And as far as I'm aware there is a vocal, productive body of professional photographers who still swear by film. Their voice will sound louder with most of the compact digital market gone.

On the other hand, mirrorless is booming as well as high-end fixed lens compacts. Sony sold way more RX1s than they expected to, and Fuji is doing pretty well with the X100 bodies.

 

[Skiff]

On the other hand, mirrorless is booming as well as high-end fixed lens compacts.

There is no boom at all in these camera categories. Look at the CIPA numbers I've posted in my original post.
These categories were significantly declining in the last two years.
It is simply propaganda by the mirrorless manufacturers that there is a 'boom' with these cameras.
Olympus is making losses in this segment for 5 (!) years now.

 

[Skiff]

That is why restoration is key, you obtain enough equipment to provide you with parts that are not easily made until they can be. It could never be 100% foolproof but I bet at least in the case of darkroom equipment, would be fairly effective.

If this restoration business were in full swing right now, it would likely extend the overall footprint of usable analog gear by a good 20 years. I think it is far more effective a strategy to restore than make new equipment.

Don't worry, be happy, and relax.
Looking at the real numbers clearly show that we will have no shortage in film gear at least for the next 30-35 years, even when no new equipment would be made.
There are about 400 million working cameras around the world.
It will need more than 30 years to "brake them all".

Due to CIPA, from 2000 - 2007 more than 90 million (!!) new film based cameras have been sold.
So there are enough "young and fresh"cameras.
And lots of camera repair companies are already in the restoration business (In Germany alone more than 50).

Darkroom gear is not a problem at all, because it is all made new by several German companies:
Kaiser, Kienzle, Dunco, Jobo, Heiland, Rodenstock.
The sales of Rodenstock (enlarging lenses) and Kienzle (high quality enlargers, washers, easels) are currently on a record level (long report about that in the current edition of "PhotoKlassik" print magazine).

And as explained above, we will very likely see new film cameras as well in the next years.

 

[Skiff]

Number of cameras shipped is not going to be a measure of success in the future, only profit. I would look to SONY, Samsung, and possibly even companies like Apple, who could return to the market with a vengeance.

Well, Sony and Samsung are not really looking any better, and Apple is not active in the mirrorless camera market.
Besides the CIPA data, you may have a look here:
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/interpreting-data-reveals.html

The Sony CEO was very honest in an interview when he said: "We can not garuantee that we will be in the camera business in five years."

 

[Hsg]

Smartphones are also digital cameras... As well as the digital notepads.

 

[Skiff]

Believe it or not, many will finally be discarded if they have no buyers.

O.k., I am not so pessimistic.
But just as a mind experiment let's assume that will happen:

The result will be that prices for the remaining working cameras on the market will rise significantly.
And then it will be attractive for camera manufacturers to introduce new film cameras again.
The reasons for that I've explained in my postings above.
The collaps in digital camera sales makes this scenario even more likely, because the manufacturers need new profitable market niches.

 

[daveleo]

Smartphones are also digital cameras... As well as the digital notepads.

Yes, what are dying out (in the larger marketplace) are devices dedicated only to making pictures. They are like the dinosaurs (that evolved into birds) . . . dedicated picture cameras are evolving into smart phones and tablets.

 

[YYV_146]

There is no boom at all in these camera categories. Look at the CIPA numbers I've posted in my original post.
These categories were significantly declining in the last two years.
It is simply propaganda by the mirrorless manufacturers that there is a 'boom' with these cameras.
Olympus is making losses in this segment for 5 (!) years now.

Micro four thirds, maybe. But I felt that the M43 market was always somewhat doomed to begin with. Sensors are simply too small to deliver IQ comparable to full frame bodies, and pixel counts are fairly low for many types of work.

But so-called "premium" compacts and mirrorless is indeed on the uptick. Sony has seen RX sales triple in the past few quarters, and by any metric the A7 series have been a runaway successful.

I think there is a pretty big market in APS-C and full frame mirrorless, particularly budget full frame bodies.

 

[Skiff]

Micro four thirds, maybe. But I felt that the M43 market was always somewhat doomed to begin with.

Sorry, but your feelings are completely irrelevant 😉.
Only the real market data is relevant.

But so-called "premium" compacts and mirrorless is indeed on the uptick. Sony has seen RX sales triple in the past few quarters, and by any metric the A7 series have been a runaway successful.

No.
Look at the data:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2013_e.pdf
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2014_e.pdf
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/interpreting-data-reveals.html

 

[Skiff]

You are of course making the assumption that stand-alone large cameras have a future of robust sales. I can't see Nikon for instance seeking out a niche market, especially after being so badly burned by their last two tries at making rangefinders.

Bad example, because the Nikon rangefinder was made for collectors, not users.

There is the possibility of course they might restart F6 production, but such large film cameras are rather out of fashion, so call me a pessimist on that.

Why restart? The F6 is in production!!!
For more than 10 years now there is a demand for this camera.
And I know why, because I am using one.
Best 35mm SLR ever.
And better in several aspects compared to the D800 (ergonomics, build quality, AF performance).

 

[YYV_146]

Sorry, but your feelings are completely irrelevant 😉.
Only the real market data is relevant.



No.
Look at the data:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2013_e.pdf
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2014_e.pdf
http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/interpreting-data-reveals.html

That is total ILC sales, which also contains small sensor ILCs, and budget sony models such as the A3100. Those arent selling well. The $1000+ ones are.

Sony sales are also on the downturn because their big announcement was in 2013 with the A7 and A7r. The A7s is exciting but geared towards video users. Either way, you can't judge a particular market by aggregate statistics. Even DSLR sale deflation has mostly been the budget models. The flagship DSLR market is rock stable and won't be going anywhere soon.

 

[KM-25]

Don't worry, be happy, and relax.
Looking at the real numbers clearly show that we will have no shortage in film gear at least for the next 30-35 years, even when no new equipment would be made.
There are about 400 million working cameras around the world.
It will need more than 30 years to "brake them all".

Due to CIPA, from 2000 - 2007 more than 90 million (!!) new film based cameras have been sold.
So there are enough "young and fresh"cameras.
And lots of camera repair companies are already in the restoration business (In Germany alone more than 50).

Darkroom gear is not a problem at all, because it is all made new by several German companies:
Kaiser, Kienzle, Dunco, Jobo, Heiland, Rodenstock.
The sales of Rodenstock (enlarging lenses) and Kienzle (high quality enlargers, washers, easels) are currently on a record level (long report about that in the current edition of "PhotoKlassik" print magazine).

And as explained above, we will very likely see new film cameras as well in the next years.

I'm not worried about much, I started doing my "homework" over a decade ago and I am honestly pretty much set in most respects. I just think that the whole film and analog movement is ripe for innovation in terms of furthering the perception of film as a niche. That means creative restoration, innovative public visibility and increasingly collaborative efforts by everyone involved.

There needs to be a better way to sort through the info of what is made, what is not, what is good, not, etc. APUG is flat out terrible in terms of taking the bull by the horns, I think Apple does a better job at promoting film than that curmudgeon infused junk show.

So we need a site that does really well at pointing people in the right directions for film based products and services. It's all an opportunity to do better at taking advantage at what is clearly to me and my peers, a genuine film revival in the arts.

I have no idea what Kienzle enlargers are like and how much they cost. I know other brands like Besler and Saunders LPL...and I am a full time pro. So how do we fix this? How do we make it a lot easier for my friend who just bought her first Hasselblad this morning to chart her way through all of this and enjoy the film ride? Because wading through forums like this one or worse ( APUG ) is not always what people want to do....

This all can be vastly improved and I think it will.

 

[daveleo]

There is a good graph shown here:
http://www.mirrorlessrumors.com/cha...ture-almost-killed-digital-cameras-after-that

New film camera sales have been virtually non-existent since 2004. The compact digital bubble (blue bar) has indeed popped. DSLR are diminishing (green bar) but not as fast as some say. Mirrorless sales (red bar) are diminishing maybe ever so slightly.
No radical news, but the downward rate of decline in DSLR & mirrorless sales are not as bad as I thought.

 

[Ranchu]

Is digital going the way of APS?