CIPA data for 2020: Digital Camera Sales Collapse accelerated

[HHPhoto]

What if the 0.01% are the only ones buying new cameras? The other 99.99% already have plenty of good options starting at 280 USD, but they simply don't seem to care.

Then the whole digital camera production would be dead!!!
The manufacturers consider the digital enthusiast market they want to serve in the future to have a volume of about 30-35 million users worldwide.
0.01% of 30 mio. would be just 30,000 cameras per year. For all manufacturers.

Cheers, Jan

 

[kram]

Braring in mind folks that people like buying new 'stuff' even if the new item is not as good, in some ways not all (e.g build quality, ergonomics, battery life etc) as the item it replaces. Think switching on a PC waiting for it to start up. Advertisers will concentrate on the new stuff's improvement over the old.

 

[JeffS7444]

Then the whole digital camera production would be dead!!!

Yes that's a possibility, but if you are happy with 18 mp and no video, why would you want to buy a new camera?

 

[HHPhoto]

Braring in mind folks that people like buying new 'stuff' even if the new item is not as good, in some ways not all (e.g build quality, ergonomics, battery life etc) as the item it replaces. Think switching on a PC waiting for it to start up. Advertisers will concentrate on the new stuff's improvement over the old.

Yes, there will always be a certain group of customers who will buy the newest stuff with even more "bells and whistles".
But that is a small minority. Most of the enthusiast users does not belong to that group.
More and more photographers are realising that they simply don't need all that expensive latest technological overkill.
And they are realising that spending that money for doing a photography journey to wonderful places (instead of new gear), or visiting workshops and learning photography better from experienced photographers, or booking professional models for photo shoots etc. will give them much much more exciting pictures than new gear ever could.
Money more wisely spend on such resources which really give you more better pictures.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Yes that's a possibility, but if you are happy with 18 mp and no video, why would you want to buy a new camera?

Well, most enthusiasts are completely satiesfied with 18-24 MP. That is the reason why this market segment has been the dominant segment in enthusiast cameras for about a decade now.
And it is also one of several reasons why the sales in the digital ILC market will continue to decline for several more years, before it may find a stabilisation point. And this point will be on a relatively low level (much lower than in the film era). Nikon has forecasted this point to be around 3 mio. units. p.a.. Looks quite realistic to me.

Cheers, Jan

 

[willie_901]

Yes that's a possibility, but if you are happy with 18 mp and no video, why would you want to buy a new camera?

This is the problem for still photography.

At 18-24 MP for APS-C and 24 x 36mm sensors, spatial aliasing artifacts are sufficiently low to accommodate weak AA cover-glass filters or eliminate them altogether.

One reason to buy a new camera would be incremental improvements in sensor technologies - such as dual conversion-gain sensors. These sort of improvements could make a difference whenever sensor exposure is well below the maximum possible level (e.g. low-light and, or action photography at wider DOFs).

 

[Skiff]

The data for January is there:
http://cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-202101_e.pdf

As expected, the significant decline in production continues, for all camera categories.
That will certainly continue for some years, as the reasons for the decline will also be active for some more years.
A bottom in the future will certainly be below 5.5 million units in total (for all digital camera types combined).

On the other hand the demand for film and film cameras will continue to increase in the coming years.
We will see a similar pattern we have already seen in the last years with mechanical watches and vinyl records.
Vinyl records had the all-time low in 1993, and since then it is increasing again. In the last decade this increase has significantly accelerated, with yearly growth rates of 20-30%.
Last year in the US even more vinyl records were sold than digital compact discs!!

With digital camera production becoming more a niche business in the future, those camera companies which are clever enough to use the film revival to benefit from will have a significant strategic advantage (as Fujifilm is already demonstrating for over a decade in which their instax film camera production is surpassing their digital camera production by factor 15 - 20x).
New film camera production to satisfy the increasing demand would be a big chance especially for Nikon, Pentax, Canon, Leica, Hasselblad and Fujifilm.

 

[JeffS7444]

The data for January is there:

Thanks, very interesting. Big increase in sales of mirrorless and fixed-lens cameras in China, wonder if restrictions on travel for lunar new year were lifted, and what's behind the rise of fixed-lens cameras in particular (Olympics?), as PRC has no shortage of mobile phone users.

For regions except for Japan, which did dismally, the trend continues for fewer but more costly mirrorless cameras. Perhaps we'll see a spike in Japan too if travel for Golden Week resumes there in the spring.

To date I've seen nothing to suggest that film or phonograph records were anywhere close to regaining the sort of dominance they had decades ago, but the future looks bright for smaller, more specialized firms.

 

[Skiff]

Thanks, very interesting. Big increase in sales of mirrorless and fixed-lens cameras in China, wonder if restrictions on travel for lunar new year were lifted, and what's behind the rise of fixed-lens cameras in particular (Olympics?), as PRC has no shortage of mobile phone users.

Such short dated anomalies are best to be ignored. I am watching the CIPA data for years, and such short-dated peaks and lows in regional shipments are happening several times over the year.
For example in this January the DSLR shipments to "other areas" was 335% of last years level. Certainly next month the situation will have changed.

The relevant data is production. And the mid- and long term trends.

For regions except for Japan, which did dismally, the trend continues for fewer but more costly mirrorless cameras.

Yes, due to inflation of MILC prices. Price-performance ratio is getting worse.

To date I've seen nothing to suggest that film or phonograph records were anywhere close to regaining the sort of dominance they had decades ago, but the future looks bright for smaller, more specialized firms.

Domination is not needed at all.
For the camera manufacturers every 5, 10, 15 or 20% more sales because of a new niche or new / revived market (as e.g. film cameras) is needed to survive in the long term.

Nevertheless there are indeed new mass markets for revival products:
The sales for instant film cameras are today much higher compared to former Polaroid's best times!
Current sales for instant film cameras are even surpassing sales for digital cameras now.

And there are meanwhile more than 45 factories worldwide producing vinyl records. And almost all of them are working in 2-3 shifts per day to satisfy the increasing demand.
In the US last year vinyl records have surpassed compact discs in sales. So there vinyl is indeed the dominant physical medium for music again.

 

[JeffS7444]

Yes, due to inflation of MILC prices. Price-performance ratio is getting worse.

I think it's more a matter of premium pricing for advanced, even luxurious features, aimed at the few users who still buy new cameras.

Nevertheless there are indeed new mass markets for revival products

It's a strange situation with the vinyl record revival: Most of the action seems to be what I'd call "low commitment" stuff: $35 deluxe LPs yes, but played on $100 Crosley portable record players. I don't get the sense that vinyl's growth has boosted the fortunes of entry- and mid-grade home hifi sales much to date.

As for Fujifilm's Instax cameras and film, clearly the stuff is selling, but whether there is much interest in cameras beyond the $150 price range..?

 

[Skiff]

I think it's more a matter of premium pricing for advanced, even luxurious features, aimed at the few users who still buy new cameras.

The problem for the huge majority of users is that most of this new features (like 8k video or very high fps values) are irrelevant for them, they don't need it at all, but they have to pay for it. And of course they don't want tp pay for something they don't need. Therefore the decreasing demand for MILC.

It's a strange situation with the vinyl record revival: Most of the action seems to be what I'd call "low commitment" stuff: $35 deluxe LPs yes, but played on $100 Crosley portable record players. I don't get the sense that vinyl's growth has boosted the fortunes of entry- and mid-grade home hifi sales much to date.

I am not an expert in this area, but some friends are. And they tell me that the vinyl revival has indeed also increased the demand for high-quality hi-fi equipment. The number of high-end vinyl record players for example is much higher now compared to the 80ies, for example.

As for Fujifilm's Instax cameras and film, clearly the stuff is selling, but whether there is much interest in cameras beyond the $150 price range..?

There is definitely very much interest in cameras for higher than 150 bucks.
Because of this strong increasing interest and demand the prices for high(er) quality film cameras are steadily increasing: Just look at all film M Leicas, Zeiss Ikon ZM, Voigtländer Bessa rangefinders (35mm and medium format), Olympus mju II, Yashica T3, 4, 5; Contax T2 and T3, Contax G1 and G2, Nikon F6, Nikon FM3A, Hasselblad XPan, Hasselblad 500 series, Hasselblad H1, H2, Mamiya 6, 7 and 7II, Fujifilm GF670, Plaubel Makina 67, Mamiya RZ 67, Pentax 67II, Rolleiflex TLRs....just to name a few. There are much more.

 

[JeffS7444]

The problem for the huge majority of users is that most of this new features (like 8k video or very high fps values) are irrelevant for them, they don't need it at all, but they have to pay for it. And of course they don't want tp pay for something they don't need. Therefore the decreasing demand for MILC.

If you are not a fan of some of the selling features of new cameras, what do you want in a new camera that you don't already have or cannot buy secondhand at a discounted price?

There is definitely very much interest in cameras for higher than 150 bucks.
Because of this strong increasing interest and demand the prices for high(er) quality film cameras are steadily increasing

So why have Nikon and Cosina recently departed the scene, and why has no one else stepped forward to fill the void?

 

[Rayt]

So why have Nikon and Cosina recently departed the scene, and why has no one else stepped forward to fill the void?

I am going to take a guess and say the labor force responsible for the film camera era which more or less ended 15 years ago are no longer employed and factors due to the Japanese skilled labor shortage and tough labor laws means no one to fill the void. And don’t forget the supply chain would have been equally affected by the aging skilled labor force. I was especially worried when Copal shutters were no longer made some years ago which spelled the end of new German LF lenses. Now I hold on to my Schneider’s and Rodenstocks like precious commodity.

 

[Skiff]

If you are not a fan of some of the selling features of new cameras, what do you want in a new camera that you don't already have or cannot buy secondhand at a discounted price?

What I want or need is irrelevant. I've talked about the market, and aggregated numbers.

So why have Nikon and Cosina recently departed the scene, and why has no one else stepped forward to fill the void?

Cosina has not "recently" departed the scene, they did it in 2015, before the film revival really took off.
And Nikon's F6 has been produced in their factory in Sendai, in which all camera production has stopped. Due to the declining demand for digital cameras Nikon is transferring production to their factory in Thailand. Nikon is currently in a total cost-cutting and restructuring process, in which several (mostly digital) smaller volume products have been cancelled. They have the challenge to build up a mirrorless system, and they have to focus on that in the next 2-3 years. After that and because of the increasing film market, I would not be surprised if Nikon will be entering the film camera market again, with new designed models.

And concerning other manufacturers: Leica is already increasing their activities in the analogue market: They are doing events for film photographers and are covering film topics on their youtube channel. The demand for Leica film cameras is so high that they cannot produce enough, they are running at maximum capacity. And there is a rumor that they will introduce another film camera.

We have already seen lots of new instant and large format cameras, and new 35mm and medium format models will follow in the coming years.

 

[Skiff]

I am going to take a guess and say the labor force responsible for the film camera era which more or less ended 15 years ago are no longer employed and factors due to the Japanese skilled labor shortage and tough labor laws means no one to fill the void.

I has nothing to do with labor force. A qualified worker who can build a D6, D850, D780, EOS 1 DX III, 5D IV etc. can also build a F6, F7, FM4A or an EOS 1V or 1V II etc.
DSLRs and SLRs are very similar and partly even identical in technology. Just that instead of a sensor there is a film chamber and film transport motor.

 

[jsrockit]

They have the challenge to build up a mirrorless system, and they have to focus on that in the next 2-3 years. After that and because of the increasing film market, I would not be surprised if Nikon will be entering the film camera market again, with new designed models.

Really? It is that much of a resurgence?

 

[Skiff]

Really? It is that much of a resurgence?

For about 5 five years we have now
- annual increase in film demand in the range of 5 to 30% (dependent on regional market and film type)
- instant film and cameras is meanwhile the most successful photo product, surpassing even the sales of digital compact, DSLR and DSLM cameras
- significantly increasing prices for used film cameras because of a steadily increasing demand; for an increasing number of film cameras the prices have even surpassed former new prices
- lots of new products for film shooters are introduced to the market, from films, to cameras, new lab equipment or scanning options
- the demand for some film types is so high that some manufacturers cannot keep up with demand, their finishing lines are running at full capacity
- all film manufacturers are investing in either increased capacities, new products or improved machinery
- even new film manufacturers appeared on the scene
- there are more film manufacturers than manufacturers for digital photo sensors
- whereas in the pandemic year 2020 the collapse in demand for digital cameras accelerated, demand for film even further increased.

So yes, that is definitely a resurgence.
And it is just a matter of time when more new film cameras hit the market.
And the camera manufacturers will be thankful for that demand, as it can "save their ass" and keep their total production volume above the critical level.
Because "mirrorless alone" cannot achieve that.

Just look at Fujifilm, at their last quarterly report: They make 14% of their total revenue with their analog products, but only 4% with their digital products.
3 years ago the relation was about 10% for analog, and 5% for digital.

 

[zuiko85]

Regarding increasing film use.
Twenty odd years ago almost all photography was on film. Vacation and family snaps for the masses was all on film and 1 hour labs were as plentiful as Starbuck’s are today.

That. Will. Never. Return.

The increase now is among photography ‘enthusiasts’, both young and old, and is a slim fraction compared to when film was the only choice for pictures.

Therefor, I’m not so sure a considerably slimmed down customer base for film cameras will support the huge expenditure of new film cameras. But, I could very well be wrong and even hope that I am wrong.

Let’s suppose then that Nikon decides to reintroduce film cameras.
(Disclaimer, never owned a Nikon, I’m an OM fan but believe the chance that Olympus would ever restart that line as zero.)
Back to Nikon. What film camera should they reintroduce? An N80, a F2As, a F6, a F3?
From my limited knowledge I’d prefer a Nikkormat FT3 or even better a F2 with a plain prism. Ten other film users would likely have ten other answers. And we haven’t even considered selling price yet. That would probably be at least 4X-6X the last price for those cameras.
There are some formidable barriers to any camera company considering jumping back into film camera production.

 

[JeffS7444]

What I want or need is irrelevant. I've talked about the market, and aggregated numbers.

I'd say it's highly relevant, because you are the one part of that aggregate whose wishes and needs are truly known to yourself!

I'm also a part of that aggregate, and I may like some of the very sorts of things you consider frivolous or extravagant: As I see it, cameras like Sony's Alpha 1 are flagship products aimed at professionals and well-to-do enthusiasts, but this in no way prevents a more budget-minded enthusiast from purchasing an A6000, so I don't see where anyone is being excluded.

 

[HHPhoto]

Regarding increasing film use.
Twenty odd years ago almost all photography was on film. Vacation and family snaps for the masses was all on film and 1 hour labs were as plentiful as Starbuck’s are today.
That. Will. Never. Return.

It does not need to at all for a strong and sustainable film revival. Because today's economy is an online economy: You buy your films online (just like all the other stuff), and you send your films for processing via mail-order. All labs are offering that and it works fine.
Or you develop your films at home. It is very easy and cheap. My film distributor told me that equipment for home processing was booming last year. Therefore more and more new products for home processing are offered by the manufacturers.

And if I look at my country here: All drugstore chain shops are offering films, C41, E6 and BW processing and prints. So about 3,500 local shops for film photographers.
So not much has really changed here in the last 15 years.

And the number of labs globally is significantly increasing, by the way.

The increase now is among photography ‘enthusiasts’, both young and old, and is a slim fraction compared to when film was the only choice for pictures.
Therefor, I’m not so sure a considerably slimmed down customer base for film cameras will support the huge expenditure of new film cameras.

There is much less needed for new film camera production than you think. Just look at a possible F6 successor, a F7. For that you just
- make it compatible with the new E lenses (very easy)
- take the prism, AF system, exposure system and shutter from the D6 (or the coming D880)
- make some minor improvements
- take the rest from the trustworthy F6.

Done. All of the most important and most expensive (in R&D) parts are already there. Using these parts for two or three camera lines keeps costs down.
That works very well. We have already seen exactly that with the F6 and D2X which were developed parallel and shared technology.

Even much easier it would be for Hasselblad. The H6X can be used with the film back for the H series. Hasselblad has just to start the production of the film back again (it was discontinued because it was not up to RoHS standards anymore).

Cheers, Jan