Collapse of digital camera sales continued in 2015

[Keith]

I don't think there's a lot of wiggle room left in digital photography. It now seems to be a case of manufacturers moving things around in the cameras themselves ....sensors are more than good enough and most cameras these days are pretty comfortable at 6400 ISO. I've had my D700 since they came out and to me there hasn't been a lot of improvement since ... aside from the mirrorless revolution.

I'm expecting to shoot a lot more film this year.

 

[willie_901]

I don't think there's a lot of wiggle room left in digital photography. It now seems to be a case of manufacturers moving things around in the cameras themselves ....sensors are more than good enough and most cameras these days are pretty comfortable at 6400 ISO. I've had my D700 since they came out and to me there hasn't been a lot of improvement since ... aside from the mirrorless revolution.

I'm expecting to shoot a lot more film this year.

The D700's analog SNR and dynamic range is inferior to a FUJIFILM APS-C camera's.

I loved the D700. I owned two of them. They made money for me. But there has been a lot of improvement.

The only issue is: are the improvements cost-effective to help one achieve their photographic goals. This is a subjective question and the answer is different for each of us.

 

[jschrader]

The officail CIPA data about digital camera In 2015 only 35.2 million units were sold.
That is even 7 million units less (!!) than in 2003, before digital camera sales took off!

I wasn't there when "digital sales took off" but I see the following numbers:
1999 - 5.000.000
2000 - 10.800.000
2001 - 16.000.000
2002 - 23.400.000
2003 - 43.400.000

I would say the numbers are still far above the numbers of "back in the old film days"

:angel:

 

[Bille]

History repeating.

1985: Business with cameras and accessories is getting more and more difficult. Fourth consecutive year of declining sales.
http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/print/d-13514226.html

 

[Skiff]

I would say the numbers are still far above the numbers of "back in the old film days"

:angel:

No, that is not the case.
2003 has been the first year in which more digital compact cameras have been sold than film compact cameras:
42,5 million digital compact cameras
and
16,3 million film compact cameras were sold in 2003.
But:
Only 0,8 million DSLRs
vs
2,3 million film SLRs.

That is why I've referred to that year, as a kind of turning point. It was the first year with higher digital camera sales than film camera sales.

In 1998 / 99 more than 42 million film cameras (both compact and SLR; both from CIPA and non-CIPA companies) were sold.
And last year just only 35,2 million digital cameras were sold.
So it's correct what I've written.

 

[jschrader]

That is why I've referred to that year, as a kind of turning point. It was the first year with higher digital camera sales than film camera sales.

In 1998 / 99 more than 42 million film cameras (both compact and SLR; both from CIPA and non-CIPA companies) were sold.
And last year just only 35,2 million digital cameras were sold.
So it's correct what I've written.

The details are always more complicated.

I just looked at those numbers to show how much a "total collapse" or "decline after a boom" depend on what basis one defines.

I am not saying it is simple for the industry. But there have been more producers in times when there were lower sales numbers.

Bottomline, 35.000.000 in the total collaps, and 10.000.000 before the digital boom.

 

[Bill Clark]

skiff,

Do these numbers include smartphone sales? Smartphones haven't been around for some of the years until they were invented. Same questions for tablet computers. However, are they included in the numbers since their arrival?

 

[mani]

The details are always more complicated.

I just looked at those numbers to show how much a "total collapse" or "decline after a boom" depend on what basis one defines.

I am not saying it is simple for the industry. But there have been more producers in times when there were lower sales numbers.

Bottomline, 35.000.000 in the total collaps, and 10.000.000 before the digital boom.

The industry is structured in a totally different way now. It's an enormous problem when large industrial corporations face such precipitous declines in sales. These are year-on-year declines that are simply too big to absorb for most organisations. It really doesn't matter that they are selling more cameras 'than before the digital explosion' - the digital camera industry didn't exist then, and the film camera business was structured and operated in a completely different way.

The two periods are not analogous.

 

[jschrader]

The industry is structured in a totally different way now. It's an enormous problem when large industrial corporations face such precipitous declines in sales. These are year-on-year declines that are simply too big to absorb for most organisations. It really doesn't matter that they are selling more cameras 'than before the digital explosion' - the digital camera industry didn't exist then, and the film camera business was structured and operated in a completely different way.

The two periods are not analogous.

Agreed.
Personally, I am not involved; I will always find a camera to do what I want. I also still find a record player, although the vinyl market is dead even longer than the analog camera market.

Maybe this is a parallel. A traditional industry with relaxed innovation cycles jumps on the digital progress train that accellerates at rate which is not sustainable. Can you still buy a CD player?

 

[Dante_Stella]

At that point we will see new film cameras on the market again. Not as a mass product, but as a high-quality product for the enthusiast market. A product for a strong and growing niche.

I think you'll probably instead see what happened with the Impossible Project's "remanufacturing" of vintage 600s and SX-70s, which is the upcycling of the massive glut of disused film cameras. That would deliver a clean Pentax K1000 (or other similar SLR) to the market for about $300-400.

Other than that, there are only really two places to go: amortizing expensive tooling over a mass market (and it's doubtful that a startup would have that kind of capital) or making them in small volume and charging a small fortune (like Silvestri, Alpa, or Linhof). By the way, the SL-1200G is $4,000, which is about six times the $700 you would have paid for an SL1200MKII when it was last sold. Anything can be reproduced at a price, and it is yet to be seen that the new Technics turntable is anything but the usual Japanese corporate nostalgia/vanity project (like the Nikon S3 and SP of recent vintage, the 50/2.4 Hexanon, etc.).

I do have to admire your uncanny ability to optimistically think that "If not B (digital cameras), then A (film)" in a world where choice C (smartphones) is probably the real answer.

Dante

 

[mani]

I also still find a record player, although the vinyl market is dead even longer than the analog camera market.

Jörgen - don't worry about vinyl, it's doing just fine:

https://goo.gl/HdeTn5

Anyway, as others have said, no-one is going to start manufacturing film cameras again (at least not on any large scale). Almost an entire generation is growing up now without any idea that a 'camera' is needed in order to take photographs.

 

[Skiff]

Bottomline, 35.000.000 in the total collaps, and 10.000.000 before the digital boom.

I've never written that digital cameras will disappear. Of course they will not.
But the 35 mio. p.a. is not the end of the downward trend. The decline will continue for some further years, especially the decline of digital compact cameras.

Compact cameras have been the backbone of camera sales for decades, in the film and digital era.
That is now changing. The camera manufacturers are loosing their main market.
At which level the decline will bottom out?
That is the 1 Mio. $ question 😉.

 

[Skiff]

Other than that, there are only really two places to go: amortizing expensive tooling over a mass market (and it's doubtful that a startup would have that kind of capital) or making them in small volume and charging a small fortune (like Silvestri, Alpa, or Linhof).

No, already at last PhotoKina (2014) Nikon and Canon have said that they are thinking about new film cameras in the 1,000 - 2,000$ price range.
They need new profitable niches. They have the technolgy. They can introduce such cameras with relatively low investments needed.

By the way, the SL-1200G is $4,000, which is about six times the $700 you would have paid for an SL1200MKII when it was last sold.

That was only just one example. There have been lots of new turntables been introduced in the last years at much lower prices.

I do have to admire your uncanny ability to optimistically think that "If not B (digital cameras), then A (film)" in a world where choice C (smartphones) is probably the real answer.

I've never written that.
Smartphones are a market of its own. Convenience lovers and snapshooters. People who in former times have used pocket or small 35mm compact cameras, and then digital compact cameras.
And then there is the market of photographers. People who are using ILC cameras and care for photography. And in this market there is room for the niche of film photographers and new cameras in the future.

The photo market is very in-homogeneous, very differentiated.
And that will probably even increase in the future.

 

[BillBingham2]

.....Convenience lovers and snapshooters. People who in former times have used pocket or small 35mm compact cameras, and then digital compact cameras.....

Or not had a camera with them at all!

Higher quality cameras in smartphones while 5G is being tested and then rolled out will keep the churn need for keep the smart phone manufactures pockets line with cash. I think there is a massive potential for improvements in photography that might come from it. My gut tells me it might be a big as with switch from wet plates to dry film.

B2 (;->

 

[goamules]

This trend begs the question: Is there anything a standalone camera can do better than a cellphone or tablet camera? I can think of a few things:

- allows the use of legacy lenses
- allows short depth of field lenses/out of focus areas in your photograph
- more robust and can survive hard knocks
- has a viewfinder for lower light framing
- easy to store and retrieve the digital photos? (I don't use a smart phone)
- is smaller (my Fuji XE-1 seems easier to carry than a tablet or large, slippery smart phone.
- etc,

 

[BillBingham2]

No question about it for folks who hang out here.

The market that Kodak used to own is cameras that are good-enough, that's the market where Smart Phone (and tablet cameras) swim. This market is HUGE with a bit more churn (people buying new products) than the dedicated camera market.

B2 (;->

 

[Dante_Stella]

This trend begs the question: Is there anything a standalone camera can do better than a cellphone or tablet camera? I can think of a few things:

- allows the use of legacy lenses
- allows short depth of field lenses/out of focus areas in your photograph
- more robust and can survive hard knocks
- has a viewfinder for lower light framing
- easy to store and retrieve the digital photos? (I don't use a smart phone)
- is smaller (my Fuji XE-1 seems easier to carry than a tablet or large, slippery smart phone.
- etc,

Much better low light capability.
Pretty much hack-proof.

Dante

 

[DougFord]

Who really cares how many digital cameras are being sold?
Design high-end enthusiast models for the educated consumer. Were companies like Sony losing or making money back in the day of the digital P&S. Profit margins are all that matters. High-end gear, when intelligently designed and manufactured, seems to have some nice built-in margins. These must be the halcyon days of digital camera manufacturing.

 

[uhoh7]

So, the digital camera manufacturers are now in a situation which is much worse compared to the film times.

Really? How so?

Do you have some numbers to back that up?

Apple and GoPro I'd wager sold more cameras than Kodak. 🙂

But the China slump and market saturation are real, and par for the mass market course, no?

The sky is always falling somewhere.

 

[Skiff]

Really? How so?

Do you have some numbers to back that up?

I've given the numbers in the postings above.
I will repeat it:
In 1998 / 1999 more than 42 million film cameras were sold (data from both CIPA and non CIPA companies).
In 2015 only 35,2 million digital cameras have been sold. And the declining trend is very strong and will continue, especially for digital compact cameras.