Trius
Waiting on Maitani
In analog/film days there were innumerable photos that were printed. But I would hesitate to call that "an art form for the masses."
The vast majority were "snaps" that you got by default because sharing negatives wasn't exactly convenient or satisfying.
rscheffler
Well-known
Smartphones are the 110, Disc, disposable camera, etc., of this generation (but of considerably better image quality). It's simply good enough and does the job for what people today need a camera to do, which is primarily simple documentation and online social distribution (today's 'printing').
As a result digital 'camera' sales are booming. It's just that the traditional camera manufacturers are generally excluded from this market because none of their cameras offer the conveniences demanded today - small, multifunctional and always connected to the net.
Traditional camera manufacturers missed the boat long ago, but I wonder if they ever could have adapted in the first place? They likely would not have been able to create the complex software platforms that now anchor most digital photography - iOS and Android.
That said, for camera nerds like us, there will continue to be dedicated camera-only devices, even with interchangeable lenses. If anything, these cameras should get better and better (in our eyes) because the remaining manufacturers must refine these to meet our increasingly niche (on a global scale) requirements. The tradeoff will be fewer 'gear heavy' photographers like us in the general photography market, which will probably mean slower updates (which is OK with me) and higher prices due to considerably lower sales volume.
Some brands will suffer because they depend on broad consumer appeal and sales. Others who are already quite niche, such as Leica, will likely weather the disruption somewhat better.
As a result digital 'camera' sales are booming. It's just that the traditional camera manufacturers are generally excluded from this market because none of their cameras offer the conveniences demanded today - small, multifunctional and always connected to the net.
Traditional camera manufacturers missed the boat long ago, but I wonder if they ever could have adapted in the first place? They likely would not have been able to create the complex software platforms that now anchor most digital photography - iOS and Android.
That said, for camera nerds like us, there will continue to be dedicated camera-only devices, even with interchangeable lenses. If anything, these cameras should get better and better (in our eyes) because the remaining manufacturers must refine these to meet our increasingly niche (on a global scale) requirements. The tradeoff will be fewer 'gear heavy' photographers like us in the general photography market, which will probably mean slower updates (which is OK with me) and higher prices due to considerably lower sales volume.
Some brands will suffer because they depend on broad consumer appeal and sales. Others who are already quite niche, such as Leica, will likely weather the disruption somewhat better.
RichC
Well-known
What camera makers is a new business model.
I suggest they take a leaf out of Adobe's book: stop selling cameras and rent them instead. If you stop paying your monthly fee, the camera locks up... Sorted!
I suggest they take a leaf out of Adobe's book: stop selling cameras and rent them instead. If you stop paying your monthly fee, the camera locks up... Sorted!
mani
Well-known
I like the positive thinking here - but this really wouldn't constitute a sustainable market for such an expensively produced commodity. The R&D and production costs would be astronomical to cater to a tiny band of enthusiasts.
I'd think even Leica will be hard-pressed to continue producing digital cameras profitably if they're also affected by these trends - which as I said, explains the move into the smartphone sector. Otherwise, the large corporations need to sell cameras in the multiple-millions to justify staying in the market.
Kent
Finally at home...
Perhaps the cameras that we were able to buy two or three years ago are just good enough?
Digital cameras won't stop being made just as computers haven't stopped being made. There will be no return to film by the masses no matter how uncool a DSLR is perceived to be. And ONLY 35.2 million cameras were sold? Is that including cell phones or not?
BillBingham2
Registered User
If someone wants to play in entry level digital camera manufacturing they need to have Super Powers (e.g. water proof) otherwise the market will dry up next year. All the major phone mfgs are looking at the quality of the cameras as the next big thing while they wait for 5G (three years out is my guess). 5G will drive the next wave to new phone adoption.
B2 (;->
B2 (;->
mani
Well-known
I mentioned the film users in my post simply because I thought it was funny at the time that the only 2 people out of 50 that actually brought along cameras to the final presentation event were using film, while absolutely everyone else (including me) were using their cellphones. I certainly wasn't suggesting this meant there was going to be a mass movement back to film.
But the hard fact is, that the "ONLY" 32 million cameras sold, represents digital sales falling off a cliff compared to a couple years ago.
Not sure what this is supposed to mean? More and more of the work in the world is being done on computers every single day. Whereas fewer and fewer people are using dedicated digital cameras. I don't get the analogy at all?
GaryLH
Veteran
Smartphone cameras are only going to get better.. The low end p&s are definitely going the way of the dinosaur.
How many high end p&s can one sell? Yes u got a lot of new 1 inch sensor cameras that hit the market this year as well as last, but one wonders how many takers especially when cameras like the Sony A6000 is selling under 450 now for body only.
That 12 or so mp cell phone camera is probably good enough the just about most people which were the customers of the low to medium p&s of the past. High end p&s were always a different story, but even back in the best of times I would have to wonder what the percentage of sale were against the rest of the p&s cameras.
It just the way it is..manufacturers are gonna need to find what works for them to survive.
Gary
GaryLH
Veteran
Panasonic if I remember correct has been losing money. Fuji actually made more money from their insta film sales then their camera.
Gary
It wasn't directed at you, but to those who think a slow down in digital means a gain for film use.
I guess I mean that sales in computers have ups and downs over time as well. But they are still made and continue to sell (just not as frequently). Computers are at a point now where nobody needs to upgrade every two years. Digital cameras won't be upgraded as frequently either. They will evolve, but they will not disappear.
GaryLH
Veteran
Exactly.. The digital camera industry feels like the stereo industry of the 80s & 90s or the personnel computer industry starting in the late 90s or the smartphone of today... Every year a new model.. Why buy it now? Wait for the fire sale and buy it later or wait a couple of generations if the updates are no enough to worry about.
It's a rat race I don't know how the various manufacturers survive. While good for the consumer, we have seen companies like Konica get gobbled up by Minolta only to fall to Sony and Pentax to Ricoh.
Gary
mani
Well-known
I agree - there's no correlation. Mass-market photography is simply transitioning away from the 20th-century paradigm of dedicated cameras.
I don't see the business model as similar at all - the sheer scale of computer sales, and the business imperatives that drive the new purchases, are cyclical for other reasons (economic activity, recessions and booms etc). I don't see the hobby purchasing of dedicated cameras as an essential part of the industrial landscape, at all. Maybe they'll simply go the way of the CD player, or the DAT recorder, or the Mini-Disc walkman...
They already have... both are now in the same phone device (music and photos)!
jarski
Veteran
smartphones might be entering this same area as well. last Samsung S6 flagship phone wasn't big success as earlier models had been. tablets sales, Android and iOS, have been stalling year or two now already. not too long ago there were predictions of collapse of traditional pc/laptop market. don't hear them anymore for some reason.
mani
Well-known
This is exactly what I mean.
Huss
Veteran
I am to blame for this. When people come to my gallery, start talking cameras, then ask me what to get, I ask them what do they want from it. To print? No. Just to post to social media. So I tell them to save their money and keep on using their phones.
A few years ago my brother bought the latest pro Canon EOS Mark whatever it was, with the pro 24-70 (I think) and 85 1.2 lenses. Cuz he could. Hardly ever uses it, uses his phone, as does his wife. He asked me what the latest best camera is, cuz he wanted to get it. I said , for him, his phone. He actually agreed.
On the other hand, his boys - 11 and 13 - are into film photography and print...
A few years ago my brother bought the latest pro Canon EOS Mark whatever it was, with the pro 24-70 (I think) and 85 1.2 lenses. Cuz he could. Hardly ever uses it, uses his phone, as does his wife. He asked me what the latest best camera is, cuz he wanted to get it. I said , for him, his phone. He actually agreed.
On the other hand, his boys - 11 and 13 - are into film photography and print...
michaelwj
----------------
I know I used to get a new phone every two years, the new ones were just so much better. Now I've had my iPhone 5 since the day it came out, I plan to keep it until it no longer works.
The world has become more frugal in the last 5 years, at the same time as technology has become 'good enough'. It;s a two pronged attack on dedicated high end cameras.
lynnb
Veteran
Same business model as printers - give the printer away, make the profit from selling ink. It worked very well (but now people are printing less, so maybe that market is in decline).
I find it ironic that instant film, the most expensive of processes, is effectively subsidising negative and reversal film. I hope Fuji continues to support Instax by producing higher end instant cameras and keep on selling Instax film by the truckload.
Skiff
Well-known
I find it quite interesting that a new paradigm change is in the beginning.
Besides the oversaturation of the market the main reason for the decline in ILC camera sales is that the users refuse to join the upgrading race (because it is much too expensive).
They are using their digital ILC cameras for longer periods, from year to year. Currently the average using time is already about six years. And that will become longer in the next years. The users will "leapfrog" new models more often.
So the behaviour of most photographers will become more and more similar to their buying behaviour in film times, using their cameras for similar periods before buying a new camera.
And when the using periods of ILC cameras then are similar to the using periods of film cameras, then it makes no big difference anymore for the manufacturer whether he sells a digital or a film camera.
At that point we will see new film cameras on the market again.
Not as a mass product, but as a high-quality product for the enthusiast market. A product for a strong and growing niche.
We will see a development similar to mechanical watches and turntables: There after a break also lots of new products have been introduced again.
Just recently Technics re-introduced its legendary SL-1200 turntable. Was presented this January at the CES in Las Vegas.
Besides the oversaturation of the market the main reason for the decline in ILC camera sales is that the users refuse to join the upgrading race (because it is much too expensive).
They are using their digital ILC cameras for longer periods, from year to year. Currently the average using time is already about six years. And that will become longer in the next years. The users will "leapfrog" new models more often.
So the behaviour of most photographers will become more and more similar to their buying behaviour in film times, using their cameras for similar periods before buying a new camera.
And when the using periods of ILC cameras then are similar to the using periods of film cameras, then it makes no big difference anymore for the manufacturer whether he sells a digital or a film camera.
At that point we will see new film cameras on the market again.
Not as a mass product, but as a high-quality product for the enthusiast market. A product for a strong and growing niche.
We will see a development similar to mechanical watches and turntables: There after a break also lots of new products have been introduced again.
Just recently Technics re-introduced its legendary SL-1200 turntable. Was presented this January at the CES in Las Vegas.