Evolving Film Market 2020

sooner

sooner

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I was browsing my local camera store in Dallas, Texas recently when two people came in, one to buy film and the other a Canonet QL-17 camera. Both were in their late teens or early 20's. It got me wondering, how big is the film market these days, how much of that market is still older film users from before digital, and how many of these younger film newbies. Also, what would be the price point to get significant interest from these two groups of consumers in buying a new medium format camera long the lines of a Fuji ZI. Any thoughts? News of the Pixii camera figures into this, but obviously a $3k camera isn't going to attract young people wanting to experiment with film. What are your thoughts?
 
Now that most of the brick and mortar shops are gone and those still surviving are closed due to COVID, we can only hope the healthy milennial hipsters continue the film resurgence. Between folks simply not going outside to shoot, few open labs to process (except at home for the most part), plants being closed and production scaled back, and the biggest consumer, the motion picture industry, taking a hiatus for who knows how long, it may be a longshot to see the film industry continuing on a large scale. I'm not a doom and gloom film person, I hope it thrives, but I'm a realist and the current global situation is going to ripple through the imaging industry for years. I will not be surprised if we see big film divisions closing or even more severely downsizing. Perhaps only producing film in lots for a short period, then hibernating for a few years, to wash, rinse, repeat.
All this conjecture is based upon the hope that the COVID-19 situation is properly handled, brought under control and eventually conquered. With all the severe economic damage this virus is doing and will continue to do to our economy, most people aren't thinking about saving their hobbies of shooting film, or buying much more than what they need for survival.
Phil Forrest
 
Geez Phil, that's kind of a negative take. I hadn't really thought about how Covid might be affecting film sales; some, especially younger people, might be less financially well off, but others may actually find themselves with more time on their hands and want a solitary activity like taking pictures. Covid aside, though, does anyone have a sense for the overall market? I know there are RFFers who are in the industry. And back to my original question, what's the optimal price point for a new mf film camera? $499? $1099?
 
It may sound like a negative point of view but it's more realistic than those who say that film is 100% back. We've been through these arguments before here on RFF. As for the price of a new MF (Manual Focus or Medium Format?) camera, it would be sold at a loss. It could only be a custom order product in today's market, considering that there have been a few kickstarters for manual focus cameras which have gone nowhere, over the past few years. With a used market saturated with both manual focus and medium format cameras which are all mechanical, there is no incentive for anyone to produce such a thing. That said, if you mean medium format, it would probably be close to $10k. If it had a fixed lens, then it is automatically a niche market product, like the fixed lens Fuji rangefinders. Look at the prices of the most recent medium format camera from Cosina, they sell now for more than they were brand new. That is for a fixed lens, folding camera which was produced in low quantities, sold in low quantities then discontinued. To start from scratch with a fixed lens medium format camera, the R&D, tooling, testing, production and marketing would make the camera close to $10k, if not more. Meanwhile, you can find (recently) a supposedly working Pentax 67 with two lenses on shopgoodwill for less than $400USD.
As for how COVID is affecting shooting, I have thousands of feet of film I would love to shoot, mostly 16mm. I have a ton of professional motion picture gear that I am chomping at the bit to use, but in my city, I can't go out and shoot with a tripod, like I want to, without getting ticketed. We're just about back to the point of only leaving the house for necessary activities and exercise here, with cases of COVID rising again. In other states, the situation is far worse but little is being done to mitigate the problem. I would love to shoot but can't afford the potential ticket, the harrassment, or the risk of infection. We can't think of the photo market apart from COVID because this is the new way of life. This disease is going to be with us for a very long time and people should be realistically thinking about how to negotiate this new paradigm. But we can always dream off the time before 2020...
Phil Forrest
 
Phil_F_NM said:
Now that most of the brick and mortar shops are gone and those still surviving are closed due to COVID, we can only hope the healthy milennial hipsters continue the film resurgence...
Phil Forrest
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Brick and mortar camera stores are open in California. They are deemed essential businesses. The ones I've been too have been very busy at their film counters, mostly with kids bless their analogue hearts.
 
Phil_F_NM said:
It may sound like a negative point of view but it's more realistic than those who say that film is 100% back. We've been through these arguments before here on RFF. As for the price of a new MF (Manual Focus or Medium Format?) camera, it would be sold at a loss. It could only be a custom order product in today's market, considering that there have been a few kickstarters for manual focus cameras which have gone nowhere, over the past few years. With a used market saturated with both manual focus and medium format cameras which are all mechanical, there is no incentive for anyone to produce such a thing. That said, if you mean medium format, it would probably be close to $10k. If it had a fixed lens, then it is automatically a niche market product, like the fixed lens Fuji rangefinders. Look at the prices of the most recent medium format camera from Cosina, they sell now for more than they were brand new. That is for a fixed lens, folding camera which was produced in low quantities, sold in low quantities then discontinued. To start from scratch with a fixed lens medium format camera, the R&D, tooling, testing, production and marketing would make the camera close to $10k, if not more. Meanwhile, you can find (recently) a supposedly working Pentax 67 with two lenses on shopgoodwill for less than $400USD.
Phil Forrest
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The Lomo LC-A 120 is a fixed lens, auto exposure 120 film camera. It is excellent, nothing else like it. I love mine.
Costs new $449.
 
Huss said:
The Lomo LC-A 120 is a fixed lens, auto exposure 120 film camera. It is excellent, nothing else like it. I love mine.

Costs new $449.
Click to expand...
It's currently in production. My understanding was that this was about bringing a new medium format camera to the market. That said, how many LCA 120 cameras are being sold?
Phil Forrest
 
I doubt the Lomo LCA-A is sold at a loss. I’m positing that maybe a new camera sold at a reasonable cost would tempt new consumers who don’t want to pay $800 for an old camera for which there are no spare parts. But my intention wasn’t to invite a gloomy or Pollyanna take on the film market but rather talk numbers—how much film is sold, how many cameras etc?
 
Phil_F_NM said:
It's currently in production. My understanding was that this was about bringing a new medium format camera to the market. That said, how many LCA 120 cameras are being sold?
Phil Forrest
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Yes but it was brought to the market maybe 5 years ago. So that is pretty darn new.

No idea how many are sold. I just see they get sold out everywhere, then in a few months are back in stock. You should try one.
 
I would love to try one, but I don't have the money to do so. I don't have a job to earn the money to get one. If I had one, I can't go outside to shoot it with confidence due to where I live. This discussion and all discussions here have to take into account the pandemic and how it is affecting every part of life everywhere, except Samoa.
Regarding an $800 camera, are we talking a completely new system? If so, then my figure of close to $10k still stands. I'm talking numbers, unless you want others to participate. I'm just being a realist regarding the film market, visual imaging market, motion picture production, all in this time of uncertainty.
Phil Forrest
 
Phil, where do you get the $10k figure, especially when the lomo sells for under $500 and the newly released digital Pixxi is coming to market for $3k, which surely has a small niche market? I’m talking about something produced at volume enough and priced to attract a broader market. Maybe not quite as broad as the Fuji Instax market but along those lines.
 
I'm the oldest person at Toronto Downtown Camera who is showing up with film cameras and pays for film and processing. One from sales even called me as the young man.

Recently I even seen young person with film SLR in our neighbourhood. In addition to our daughter :). It was like seeing same planet spaceship. I'm the only one walking with film camera in the neighbourhood.

Toronto Downtown Camera seems to be last spot dedicated for film with crowds. Young crowds. I saw Somalian Muslim young females buying Ilford film camera. Young Asian buying TLR and another bringing huge MF SLR. Toronto Queen Street tattooed ones are here as well.

Hopefully greedy manufacturers prices on film will not drain it out.
I paid some huge money for roll of Porta. Going to use it for one month. :)
 
Some of the best medium format bargains, costing only a few hundred dollars, should satisfy young people with high quality results:

Mamiya RB67 (preferably Pro S or SD) - I have seen Pro S, with 90 or 127mm lens, WLF, and Pro S film back all for under $400. I have two of these and have used them for years with excellent results. Lenses are very good and inexpensive. I carry the camera while walking; no tripod. I like the RB67's better than my Hasselblads.

Mamiya C220 or C330

Yashica 124-G

Zeiss Nettars or Voigtländer folding cameras (assuming the bellows is good). My Zeiss Nettar 515/16 (6x6cm) was only a few hundred dollars. Excellent results and you can carry it in a coat pocket. Light and small - I've used mine as a daily camera for months while on trips.

No need for a new medium format camera when so many older ones are available at relatively low prices, plus CLA.
 
I have nothing to add regarding new camera speculation, but I did make two trips to my local processing lab this past week. When I asked the owner how business was treating them since the pandemic began he replied that they are busier then ever. They looked it too as they had a lot of film there to keep up with.

In the very small sample size category (but the only direct experience I have to relate)...
At 58 I was definitely the old guy there. I tried to keep my visits short and even then I saw a number of other photographers dropping off and picking up each time. Certainly some were young, but others were middle aged, male and female alike. Really a nice cross-section overall.
 
Guth, that’s super encouraging. I took a darkroom class 10 years ago and it was me and 5 young women.

Pal K, you raise a good point about existing used cameras. That’s what I’m driving at night n terms of numbers, but surely the supply of usable cameras is declining. I always see dozens of Fuji Zi’s for sale but who wants to pay those prices for a camera that can’t be repaired? Hence the need for something new. But maybe there are more than enough used cams to satisfy the need.
 
Some anecdata from my local film camera store and from an Ilford partner.

Lockdown brought a boom. He has sold so many film cameras he has had difficulty keeping up. He has no medium format left.

I was there just the other day collecting a lens and buying some Leica accessories and not one but two young men were queuing to buy a Point and shoot and film.

Ilford shut their factory during lockdown, having put together a decent stockpile they thought would last. After 6 weeks, they decided to recommence production. Plenty of Ilford availability, but look at the website of Fotoimpex in Germany and film after film is out of stock.

Same with film RF Leicas. Virtually none for sale other than special edition M6s in the whole of Europe. Can't get them for love, even if you have the money!
 
I live in New Zealand, which is basically the 'no mans land' of the world for anything trendy or interesting. I see film cameras nearly every time I go outside, and 70% of them are younger people. The 3 local camera stores all tell me they almost can't keep up with the film processing load they get. The 3 small labs that have opened up specifically for film processing and scanning have been busy too. Cameras that have been cheap over the last few years on the local classifieds site are now more expensive than the infamous Japanese sellers on Ebay. My home city of Melbourne in Australia has several labs that are always developing and scanning and selling film.
 
sooner said:
It got me wondering, how big is the film market these days, how much of that market is still older film users from before digital, and how many of these younger film newbies.
Click to expand...

There has been quite a lot of data about that published in the last two years. By very reliable sources. Including data from the film manufacturers. A small summary:
- all film manufacturers have reported significantly increasing demand
- Kodak had explained that their photo film production has doubled in the last five years
- Kodak has said that they have to increase converting capabilities to keep up with demand = investments in new machineries

- lots of films are regularly out of stock at film distributors because of demand surpassing supply
- several former discontinued films have been reintroduced by the manufacturers (e.g. TMZ, Ektachrome, Acros, CHS 100 II)
- film equipment manufacturers are also reporting increasing demand
- lots of very young photographers are starting to use film
- quite a lot of medium aged photographers are returning to film after many years of exclusively shooting digital only (some return to 100% film, some are using digital and film side-by-side)
- new film manufacturers: ADOX and Film Ferrania.

Then there are trends very obviously visible:
- the number of labs has increased recently
- more film distributors
- lots of new products which are film related (film equipment, darkroom stuff)
- film photography is booming on instagram and facebook
- film photography channels are booming on youtube (more than 100 meanwhile, and increasing)
- the film revival is also getting stronger in some important Emerging Markets, especially in Asia
- because of increasing demand the prices for used film cameras are increasing for quite some time now
- even so far 100% digital websites have recently added film sections and film topics, like DPreview.

Concerning Covid-19 impact on the film resurgence:
First I was worried, but now I am more relaxed: I have asked all my film distributors and labs about the demand changes. And all have said that the demand during the lockdown even increased a bit. Looks like lots of people have used the time-plus during lockdown to intensify their film photography.
 
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