Film body value, post-M8?

[Sparrow]

George; is that you?

 

[peter_n]

I hope a lot of people start selling off their m7's, make it a lot easier for me to get my hands on a good 58 one I hope.

Exactly! I'm hoping the price goes through the floor so I can buy lots of M7s... 😉

 

[ywenz]

I'm wondering if I should sell my M6 right now to get maximum value for it. Then pick one up for cheap after the M8 comes out?

 

[Ben Z]

I'm wondering if I should sell my M6 right now to get maximum value for it. Then pick one up for cheap after the M8 comes out?

😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 I've heard of people selling Leica's short, but never in the literal sense 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

 

[harmsr]

Just my $.02, but I really don't think that you will see a glut of film Ms come up for sale soon. I do think that people with multiple M6, M6ttl, M7, or MP bodies may drop down to one film body. Does that represent a huge glut on the market or a major price change, probably not.

I sold my spare M5 body recently, but still plan to keep my other M5 and MP.

Best,

Ray

 

[Nikon Bob]

Did the RD-1 hurt Leica prices, or even Bessa prices, or keep Zeiss from bringin out the IKON? I know it isn't an apples to apples comparo, but I don't see people dumping their M5-M7s for the M*, unless they are seriuosly strapped for cash.

I think the bigger issues is, can Leica get new people into the RF world with this camera. If we just get incestuous marriages of film RFs for dRFs, that really doesn't grow the market. At $5000 (?) for the M8, I don't see people switching from dSLRs.

For the long term viability of dRF and RF in general, I think you have to make a better value proposition than the M8. We need a sub $2000 dRF, even if it is a generation behind in sensor technology. If a dRF can offer the compactness of an EVF with the image quality of a dSLR with out much of a price premium, that is the sweet spot.

Mark

I would agree with what you have said. The RD1 should have been that sub $2000 IMHO but it was priced wrong and has had QC issues added to it's rep to boot, rightly or wrongly. Unfortunately it looks like the market has spoken and I am still waiting for a dRF in that range. If the RD1 had of created a whole new market for dRFs then it would have been easier for Leica by having an enviroment/market already established for Leica to bring their M8 into. I am still hoping that the M8 will be profitable and encourage a sub $2000 dRF to appear. I think it would have been so much easier the other way round though.

Nikon Bob

 

[amateriat]

I think the bigger issues is, can Leica get new people into the RF world with this camera. If we just get incestuous marriages of film RFs for dRFs, that really doesn't grow the market. At $5000 (?) for the M8, I don't see people switching from dSLRs. Mark

Assuming there aren't any major teething problems with the initial run, I think the demand for the M8 will certainly be greater than Leica can handle. I'm also predicting that a sizeable percentage of M8 buyers will be comprised of people who either left the RF fold for SLRs eons ago, or never entertained the idea of shooting with a serious RF until now. I can think of more than a few PJs who are seriously champing at the bit for an M8 or two in place of (or at least alongside) their Dreadnaught pro dSLRs. And, what's 5k for a pro digital body these days? Perversely, Canon and Nikon have if anything made the high-end digital frontier somewhat safer for Leica to enter from a price standpoint, at least in my opinion. Five grand for a digital M doesn't sound as outrageous as it might have at one time, especially compared to the price of a late-model D1 or 1D (funny how the names of these cameras start running into each other).

Not that I touch this crazy-expensive digital body stuff, mind you. 😉


- Barrett

 

[PetarDima]

I think a lot depends on how quickly Leica can meet the demand for the M8 and what the initial reports are regarding its features and performance, such as noise issues at and above ISO 400 and vignetting. If Leica can only trickle out M8 bodies for the first year, that will slow the dumping of film bodies and keep the supply and prices even. Likewise if reports are that people are unhappy with the image quality for b&w in low light, many people may opt to keep at least one film body. And I think that if as I predict, Leica discontinues production of the M7 within 6 months to a year after the launch of the M8, its used prices will stabilize. Likewise, even if Leica keeps the MP in production for another few years, due to its exceedingly high and ever-increasing price, the prices of used mechanical Leicas will also remain fairly level. When you'll see a real drop in film Leica bodies is when there is a good supply of used and demo M8 bodies in the $2500-3000 range.

Noise - above ISO 400!!!!!! Who will give thousands of dollars for that bodY :bang:

 

[anselwannab]

Barrett,

I agree with your points about people coming back. I read in some semi-mainstream magazine about the PJs that followed around the 04 pres election here and the cameras they used. One of them stated that film was too slow logistically, a dSLR was too big, and what he really wanted was a digital RF camera. I think they were more of a writer and photographer, or at least a writer who wanted to document things.

Hopefully as sensor technology advanced slow down, the risk of brining out a dRF will be less. I still have hopes for Nikon, to bring back the nostalgia and their hey-day, and maybe even Sony. Canon is so high-tech, I'd hate to see what they would bring out. Sony may be a problem because they always use their own propietary formats, what a pain.

Mark

 

[jaapv]

I don't know about the film bodies but I'd be real hesitant about buying a Digilux 2 right now. That''s where I think you'll see a price drop.

My wife has laid claim to the Digilux2. I think a fair number will remain in the family. Also, the number of M8 buyers that already own and will sell a Digilux2 cannot be that large, seeing that used Digilux2's are very rare at the moment.

 

[jaapv]

Noise - above ISO 400!!!!!! Who will give thousands of dollars for that bodY :bang:

Not such an issue as one would think- simply buy a Noctilux 😀. And people do use 800 ISO film - horrible noise 🙁 , still,film bodies get sold... 😉
I am convinced the M8 will be relatively noisy at high ISO as there seems to be a tradeoff between "film-look" and ISO noise, generated, no doubt by the presence of high filtration in front of the sensor with CMOS sensors and high in-camera noise reduction. Leica will surely go for pictorial impact and will no doubt be hammered in reviews and forums for "noise issues" I, for one, prefer to do my noise reduction myself in the computer.

 

[Les Lammers]

The DM will sell well but not to many 'average shooters'. Do the math and see what the total cost will be to get the body and new lenses due to the crop factor.

I think sales of new M's will drop as the price rises and used will hold their value.

It's all speculation.

 

[Ben Z]

The DM will sell well but not to many 'average shooters'. Do the math and see what the total cost will be to get the body and new lenses due to the crop factor..

Hmmm, ok, I'm no mathmetician but I'm decent at arithmetic: Many average shooters like myself have a 21mm, which is (ignoring the collector's item Hologon) the widest lens Leica makes and so far no confirmed upcoming release of anything wider. To recapture the 21mm fov would take a 16mm lens, so basically at present that means a 15mm Voitlander, which isn't really very expensive. In fact I already have one and like the fov on film, so for me I'd need the Voitlander 12mm, which, whadda you know? I picked one up used cheap when everyone was still saying Leica would never make a digital M. As to the cost of the body, well, a roll of 36-exp Provia costs me $4.25 roughly from B&H, and un-mounted E6 processing costs me $7.50, or $11.75 total per roll. So if I shoot 10 rolls/month, by the end of the first year I'd have saved the difference between a new M8 and a new M7. By the second year I'd be down to the cost of a used M7, by the third year I'd have less in the M8 than it would cost to get a beater M4-2.

 

[ywenz]

I, for one, prefer to do my noise reduction myself in the computer.

To that I'd say garbage in, garbage out.

I'd much rather have the M8 produce clean images and should I want, add the noise in post to mimic various film brand.

The M8 better be at least as clean as the RD-1.

 

[Traut]

I think the M8 will pique the interest in the Digilux2. A 28 - 90 f2 zoom at less price than just a decent lens - the M8 is the defibrilator the Digilux needs.

 

[John Camp]

>>"I'm interested in hearing what everyone thinks the value of film M bodies will be like once the M8 comes out."

While they'll still retain value, you probably wouldn't want one. 😀

 

[Ben Z]

I think the M8 will pique the interest in the Digilux2. A 28 - 90 f2 zoom at less price than just a decent lens - the M8 is the defibrilator the Digilux needs.

The Digilux2 would need exhumation, not defibrillation. Panasonic killed it dead and buried it alongside its fraternal twin the LC1. And I can't see how a 10MP 1.33-crop rangefinder camera would somehow change anyone's perspective on a 5MP noisy-P/S-size-chip camera with manual focus control but an EVF that makes it all but useless as anything but an AF camera. Just my opinion, but for Leica's sake I hope their marketing people do their darndest to perceptually distance the M8 from the badge-engineered Panasonics.

 

[jaapv]

You've just made clear you've never used a Digilux 2, Ben

 

[jaapv]

To that I'd say garbage in, garbage out.

I'd much rather have the M8 produce clean images and should I want, add the noise in post to mimic various film brand.

The M8 better be at least as clean as the RD-1.

You mean the small processor and limited software in the camera would do a better job than a (hopefully) powerful PC? Because that is how digital camera's reduce noise and produce their so-called clean images, except for Canon, who add a piece of matte glass in front of the sensor as well.

 

[Gid]

The M8 will be a raging success and demand will far outstrip supply. Zeiss will create a 12 MP competitor for 2/3 the price and Cosina will produce the same for half the price of the M8. The move to digital will be unstoppable. The film market will take a significant hit and the last of the major players will bow out leaving only low volume specialists selling film at $25 a roll. Commercial labs will become a rare breed further impacting E6 and C41 sales and eventually the only film you'll get will be B&W in limited ranges. Chemicals and paper will become harder to find and film scanners will be a thing of the past. Effectively your film camera will be worthless, except as a paper weight.

Its being so cheerful that keeps me going 😀