Lauffray
Invisible Cities
Is Puck Fair closing ?
New York July NYC Meet-up?
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Is Puck Fair closing ?
Particular
Disassembler, occasional reassembler
Yes, supposedly the gas station on the corner and the low buildings behind it, including puck's, will be taken down for some new large building.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Range-rover
Veteran
Just think everyone the way things are going in NYC you'll have tons of Starbucks, Banks, CVS/Duane whatevers and Condos! Wow so
much to visit in New York! Sorry I have to vent!
Bob
much to visit in New York! Sorry I have to vent!
Bob
jsrockit
Moderator
Bob, just imagine how the people who have lived in NYC for 30-40 years feel...they've seen it happening for a long time.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
John,
Connect the dots: add perhaps 200K-300K for the Hudson Yards redevelpment; add another 200K-300K for the "Queens South" redevelopment of what once was the Daily News plant; and add it onto the current 8.4 million who already live in NYC and we have a population of 9 million in about 5 years.
This is unprecidented growth that is not sustainable. Also consider not very far away, like say Beacon which is only 65 miles north, towns have mucho foreclosures and the housing market remains muy depressed.
Consider all the major infrastructure projects: LIRR to the East Side; Second Avenue subway; extending the 7 Train to the Javits Center; extending the Highline renovation to 32d Street; and it is very obvious that tax payer money is being utilized to create a luxury community for people who are not like me.
I say that I will likely get priced out. About half the real estate sold in NYC are cash deals. Mucho non Americans are also hiding their wealth and doing illicet things like laundering money by purchasing NYC properties.
Already there has been talk of covering over Sunnyside Yards, basically like the Barclays Center but on a more massive scale. If they build high rises over that railyard NYC could fit 10 million people.
Do we really want NYC to become more like a Gated Community for the wealthy? Do you like seeing all these mucho entitle people moving in from the suburbs? Do you like buying your coffee at one of the 7-11's that are surprisingly poping up all over the city?
Chelsea/the Meat Packing District/Highline now has been sanitized for the wealthy, and now with Hudson Yards and the further redevelopment of the northern half of the Highline this sanitization will continue. I think NYC is loosing its character in a bad way.
The iconic shot I took of the Empire State building from Long Island City with a Rollieflex cannot be recreated because now a tall high rise in LIC now has jumped into the shot.
Cal
zauhar
Veteran
Cal are there any stats on how much foreign money is coming into NYC to buy property? You read the same sh-t happening in London, Tokyo, you name it, but the evidence of what's happened is all anecdotal - like a whole neighborhood goes dark because none of the property owners live there, nor even need the income from renting their property out.
Philadelphia hasn't been totally invaded yet, we're trying to keep the crime rate up so we can keep the moneyed riff raff out. ;-(
Randy
Philadelphia hasn't been totally invaded yet, we're trying to keep the crime rate up so we can keep the moneyed riff raff out. ;-(
Randy
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Randy,
If I remember correctly the number is 30% of the "luxury" market is foreign. Pretty recently "New York" magizine had an intensive article that revealed the illicit aspect of the housing market in New York that involes the use of LLc's to hide ownership. They suggest that escape pods are being established by wealthy Russians, Chinese and Europeans in case their countries and economies go south.
One section of the East Side by Park and 5th Avenues around 72d Street is said to have apartments that are vacant 9 months out of the year. This coincides with the 30% mentioned above.
Some of the logic is that The USA is still the biggest economy and is the most secure country on the planet. Also seems that loop holes in the laws encourages and allows ownership to be blacked out so confiscation of wealth is difficult.
Also know that my "luxury' apartment requires that I wire my rent abroad. My luxury building finished being constructed one year after the housing bubble popped and originally was built as luxury condos, but it became a "rent-stabilized" building for some tax exemption.
I moved in and one year into my 2 year lease my building went "condo conversion." Almost all of the original tenents are now gone, and I remain a holdout. Even though the prices, even the insider prices, were all crazy all the units sold (except one of the two 1.8 million dollar penthouses); and realize this building is in East Harlem where 25% of the population lives in public housing, and 50% of the residents receive some form of government check. Just down the block on Third Avenue is a halfway house for ex-felons that use to be called "the Parole Transition Institute." A few blocks away is Metropoliton Hospital, a public hospital that was deemed the best place to go if I get shot or stabbed because they have the most experience.
For me my rent somehow remains at a rent stabilized level with no rent increase. I was told that my new landlord bought four units in my building. I wonder if my landlord is paying taxes on all this rental income in his country? Hmmm. Seems like a lot of people make money the old fashion way: they steal it.
BTW it is not hard to imagine that 30% of the owners in my building are not Americans who are using their asset as a rental income.
Cal
Particular
Disassembler, occasional reassembler
Given how weak the value of the dollar has been in the last 10 years, it is probable quite a lot. On a global scale New York is not as expensive as it was 15 years ago.
While foreign investment is pushing prices up, the more condos that are approved, will eventually saturate the market and at least limit the price rises. Manhattan is only now back at the population level it had in the 1920s.
I don't have a problem with population growth, but the quality of the planning, or non-planning, and development are really not up to scratch in my opinion.
While foreign investment is pushing prices up, the more condos that are approved, will eventually saturate the market and at least limit the price rises. Manhattan is only now back at the population level it had in the 1920s.
I don't have a problem with population growth, but the quality of the planning, or non-planning, and development are really not up to scratch in my opinion.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Brooklyn is the new Art Center and is now looked upon as the new creative capitol of the City. I forgot to mention the recently approved redevelopment of the Domino Sugar Refinery right by where I use to live. Back before the Southside of Williamsburg was conquered by hipsters I lived in a 950 square foot loft with 14 foot ceilings in a small building that once was a burlap bag factory from the 1800's.
My landlord asked me numerous times while the bubble was inflating if I wanted to buy. He was asking $550K which was crazy money at the time for that neighborhood. For three blocks there were no inhabitants except for the people who lived in the eight units in my small building. At that time the sugar refinery was operating, I on ocassion would hear someone parcticing emptying their 9mmm, and once I found a shell casing for a 45 right in front of my building. At night when you croosed Metropolitan and Grand Streets on Bedford all of the sudden there were no crowds of people like on the Northside. Basically you were on your own.
Now with the Domino redevelopment I regret not buying my loft, especially now that I know that the area will be sanitized for the wealthy with the Domino redevelopment.
Cal
NY_Dan
Well-known
As usual, Cal's assessments are spot on. With all the wealth why are so many new jobs unpaid internships? There was a recent article in NYT about new luxury hi-rises that are essentially left dormant because a huge percentage are for investment, not living. I have no idea how the infrastructure can support such massive projects -- where will the water, sewage, electricity, and other services come from?
Lauffray
Invisible Cities
Jeez...well now I can say I knew what it was like before. It's still a pretty big area though
Particular
Disassembler, occasional reassembler
As long as they remain unoccupied it's not a problem, if all those people would move in, we may be up the creek, literally.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Dan hammers the point. Where is the tipping point where New York looses its identity, and when will the tipping point be where all this building is unsustainable. What is the identity of the Highline today?
Two locations exist that are cited to remain "affordable" due to oversupply and they will be "Clinton" near Hudson Yards, and LIC. When I lived in LIC rents in built buildings stayed low because the brand new high rises undercut any possible rent increases kept rents down in the older buildings that were still relitively new. Two free months rent was offered in the new buildings as an incentive if you signed a two year lease. If you were willing to get displaced by the rent increased and didn't mind moving every two years, I expect this will continue yet again, but this will end when all the construction ends. In Clinton there were similar incentives for the pioneers who helped gentrify neighborhoods.
If you figure it all out we are subsidizing the wealthy by paying for all the infrasturcture that is being built out. Meanwhile me a guy with two graduate degrees, who is rather clever and smart, that has a really well paying job, who has a partner who is an academic who teaches in a graduate school somehow is getting squeezed out. Realize that I know my income, my education, and my status is well above the average American, and that I can be included in the "Investment Class" of the taxpayers that have more income than needed and will have enough money to have a retirement. Ironically it is said that only 30% of Americans have enough money to retire, and that two-thirds will have to work till they die.
In the film "Ben Hur" Charlton Heast-on is chained to an oar as a slave on a Roman warship that fights by ramming an enemy ship to sink it. He is told, "Row hard and live long Juda Ben Hur." This situation sums up the situation for most Americans, but now we are also supporting the wealthy of other countries. I say this is like passing the whip.
BTW it seems like I likely will eventually be moving to downtown Brooklyn for more space and a safer neighborhood. If I'm willing to live in a new building I can readily get a two bedroon in a luxury building with a gym, doorman... It seems that there is a big premium thogh for living in a apartment that has character, like say a brownstone.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The low piont was the Bowelry in the 70's. I visited my friend's uncle. The room would be considered a studio and it had a bathtub oddly placed in the room. I asked to use the bathroom and there was toilet basically in a small closet like space. I asked where was the light ans was told, "There isn't one."
Cal
NY_Dan
Well-known
I think many people who are in the 2/3 (probably a higher figure) who must work till they drop would feel fortunate if there were jobs for them -- let alone jobs with salaries that could cover their modest overhead.
Lauffray
Invisible Cities
I don't know how you can say that, this is huge.
What's going to happen to these places that no one lives in, taking up space while some people struggle to find apartments. What's going to happen when most proximity services are gobbled up by big private chains. I worry that people my age like myself, university graduates with good jobs, have to wait a long time to be able to afford buying their first apartment, let alone having enough to retire. Then what happens when those rich folks find the next cash cow and leave town ? I live here and want to stay here and I do think about the legacy they will leave, not least of which are these nasty homogenized neighbourhoods.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Dan,
I feel I am very-very lucky, but when you say modest I think of all the people who bought houses that they could not afford, or lease cars that they normally would not be able to drive, or even the guy who does have a job who spends more than they earn.
LIFE IS NOT A PONSI SCHEAME.
But then again. I dont't own a car, I eat nut butter sandwitches at work for lunch so I can own expensive cameras, and I don't expect the government to take care of me.
I will also say that the rich say, "No one ever got rich by paying taxes," and I'll be the first to state I learned from the rich on how to not pay my fair share where I tax sheltered mucho money by saving and living below my means, I gamed the stock market hoarding wealth, locked in tens of thousands of dollars worth of student loans at a low fixed rate below the rate of inflation hosing the American public, and even take a tax deduction on the little interest that I do pay. The interest I paid in a margin account that helped me multiply my profits like a hedge fund was a tax deduction so indirectly the American tax payer subsidized my gaming the market. Also I arrogantly display wealth that I accumulated, in clothes, watches diamonds, gold coins, bullion and other hard assets that I more or less secured gaming the American public and utilizing government policy that not only enriched the banks, but the 1%.
Shame on the American public if they trusted the government and expected the policies that support business and the wealthy to also extend to them. I was not born rich, quite the opposite, but I learned how to think like the rich and help myself to laws and policy that legalized stealing.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Jerome,
You have great insights to the liabilities that are created by being an absentee home owner. First off just say no to higher taxes, meaning taxes generally only go up. Then there are all the other costs like insurance and maintenance... What happens when the rich can't afford these liabilities and there are no buyers to further inflate the prices? I liken the situation to how a nuclear bomb is detonated: first a convention exposion that is detonated that leads to the creation of critical mass where chain reactions can occur; then there's the larger second explosion. Inadvertantly the U.S. government through policy has created a weapon of mass destruction and the world as we know it will not be the same.
I think if anyone who has an understanding of statistics and "regression to the mean" kinda knows that things are unsustainable. Also know that the U.S. government has performed something that has never-ever been performed ever before: reinflate a bubble. What do you think will happen to real estate prices when interest rates rise from the current lows. Already there are indications, that while we are 15% below the pices from the last peak (just before the bubble burst), that if we compare both ends of the housing market the luxury market is showing major gains, while the lower end is languishing, yet on average we are 15% from the market peak. Basically it is a tale of two markets.
NYC is an exceptional market, but Beacon located just 65 miles north in the lower Hudson Valley displays a totally different market: one that has mucho forclosures and by NYC prices homes are cheap and cost no money. I made two trips to Beacon this summer, and my conclusion is the recovery in housing is not really real.
I can tell you that regression to the mean will happen, but I can't tell you when this will happen. Just like in 2007 it is like a child's game of "Musical Chairs." Currently the music is still playing and we are dancing in a circle, but when the music stops, because I do not own a home, and I stored my wealth in other assets that I know I already have a chair.
Also because I'm a baby boomer and you are from a younger generation I owe you an apology and also to all my other younger friends. I did not mean by demographics to make life harder for you; it was not my intent for my generation (meaning baby boomers) to screw up and destabilize the world and world economy, but I do know that we (baby boomers) are resposible. All I can say is repeat what was said to Juda Ben Hur,
"Row hard Jerome and live long."
Cal