hmm wish for another recession with the hopes of more cheap camera treasures or a recovery bringing back the normal (more expensive) price of luxury goods. dang wish I had more funds to buy stuff while the getting was good.
Darren,
Be carefull what you ask for. Many analysts and the FED say a chance of a double dip recession is remote, but I figure otherwise. To me the housing market really hasn't bottomed yet, and look out below.
It seems the FED and Wall Street ignores the most basic lesson from Statistics 101, which is regression to the mean. Took 5-6 years for a housing bubble to inflate, and I say it will take 5-6 years to bottom. Add the delays for mortgage defaults to become mortgage foreclosures (6-9 months) and don't disregard the huge "shadow inventory" (oversupply not on the market). Our economy will likely be fragile and vulnerable for many years, I say.
Look at the IMF (International Money Fund) chart on mortgage defaults. They indicate another mortgage default spike that is bigger than the one we just experianced. These are the Alternate A loans, interest only, and other mortgages that have terms that strongly resemble credit cards.
And then there is a third spike that will begin in the first quarter of 2011 that will overlap with the second spike that will occur mid 2010. Remember to add/combine the 6-9 month delay for defaults to become foreclosures. I say it might be 2012 the earliest before there is a "real" bottom the the housing bubble.
DISCLAIMER: I am not a licensed professional, but I do have a journalism background that allows me to draw out truth and form it into a narritive. I also sold all my energy stocks when oil first traded at $135.00 a barrel. Later that day oil peaked at $147.00 (Futures contract) and the house of cards fell. I closed my margin account that day. Energy stocks became uncorrelated when oil contracts hit $137.00 a barrel by the way, and I sold very near the top.
Now I sit on a lot of hard assets, while governments devalue currencies. Welcome to a new world.
Cal
