Nikon going out of the film camera business

[nwcanonman]

I'm looking forward to the sun coming out (23 days of straight rain here), so I can go outside and use my Nikon F (that they quit making almost 40 years ago) with some real film, and have it developed by anyone from Safeway to the pro-labs in Seattle or Portland.
The rain is the only thing I have to worry about ending ~ ; - )

 

[Andy K]

Hehehehe. OK, Andy. OK.



Well, now I know where you got what you've been shoveling here.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

You'd be wrong, I was actually standing behind you as you spoke.

 

[bmattock]

Guess I'll need more space for the replies..

When I say demand, I mean demand by people willing to pay a price that will make manufacture worthwhile. Product lines in the automotive world are shut down when they are no longer profitable (at least, in a well run company), not when there is no demand.

I absolutely agree with you - lines shut down when they can no longer be run at a profit. And they are designed to make a profit at a high percentage of potential throughput. In other words, if they make money at 100% production, they may not make money at 90% production. Fixed costs are fixed costs. Power, water, personnel, insurance, etc.

My take on the future of film is based both on my experience as an engineer in the dim past, and as a business owner today with clients in the business of selling photographic equipment.

In the '80s, our company was making clutches and brakes for industrial control. The largest customers were in the web coating and slitting business-film and magnetic tape. Kodak was one of our big accounts- there's a lot of very durable equipment in those plants that will end up somewhere when Kodak decides they don't want to do film anymore-or will be sold off at the bankruptcy auction if they screw up.

Remember, fully depreciated in most cases.

The lines are built, are highly automated, and paid for. A new, small line wouldn't be all that hard to build, either-and the environmental question isn't as big a deal as some might lead you to believe. The entry fee just isn't all that high. The change in manufacturing practice in just the last 20 years beggars belief- what once took large shops with 50+ people now fits in a garage and has 2 employees.

This is the crust of the biscuit. If you are right - and you seem to have the background to prove it - then there may be a potential for 'cottage-based' film production. All the information that I have from my gut and from my industry contacts tells me that this is not the case - but your lifetime of experience could be more accurate.

But I'd have to see some data. You say a small efficient line would not be that hard to build - do you have any data on that? It is my understanding that the slitters, coating machines, and so on are massive, and require massive physical plant to support them.

I have no doubt that a small shop with CNC machining and computerized controls can manufacture efficiently a large number of items that were once the exclusive province of the big assembly line - like Crager mag wheels versus the new small water-cutters. I have not seen that sort of innovation in emulsion-coating equipment, though. There just has been no demand for it. Anyone who makes film, makes it on a large scale now. Exceptions are in Eastern Europe, and those plants are not modern.

As to demand- I know I live in an area blessed with choice in photo processing, but it is our local demand that keeps our wide variety of independent film processors going. And that demand is coming from-college students. Not old farts like me. When I pick up my film order, the "ready" boxes are jammed. We don't worry about coagulated E6 chemicals- I complain when my Velvia isn't ready in 2 hours. And this place isn't the only one available, either.

The news stories do not seem to be reporting film processing companies resurging or reappearing. I also do not see that happening in my area - in fact, quite the opposite.

Tomorrow I'll be visiting with the client who told me about the increase in film demand that he sees. His shop no longer sells cameras of any kind-he does film developing, prints of all types, and in-house photos only. I'll let you know what he says.

Keep in mind - localized increases are to be expected during consolidation. As these companies lose their competitors, they get a boost. But it's a downward trend - the boost only lasts for a short while until the next competitor drops out. And there are only so many local competitors.

I mean, what do we do? We can't buy Agfa film, so Ilford or someone else will get our trade. Some local shop shuts down, so some other company gets our processing business. A boost for them, but only until more photographers shift to digital.

I have a friend who is one of the last remaining programmers in XYZ Basic on a ABC OS midsize computer. XYZ is well dead and gone, but his skills in a decreasing market keeps his salary high. But he could not stand any competition, it would cut his pay in half if he had even one competitor. There just isn't enough work for more than that. The last remaining experts do well - until they don't.

 

[parks5920]

Bill's not, people just don't like the writing on the wall.

 

[bmattock]

You'd be wrong, I was actually standing behind you as you spoke.

I'm sorry, do you walk with a limp. There was something limp back there, now that you mention it.

 

[Bryan Lee]

I'm looking forward to the sun coming out (23 days of straight rain here), so I can go outside and use my Nikon F (that they quit making almost 40 years ago) with some real film, and have it developed by anyone from Safeway to the pro-labs in Seattle or Portland.
The rain is the only thing I have to worry about ending ~ ; - )

The sun is just breaking onto my 40 foot tall bamboos behind my office and the birds are chirping away and excited as Thailand on the China Sea or Gulf of Siam breaks into another perfect day. Its a little cool right now at 69F but no worrys it will be 85 in a couple hours and my Iced Tea will make a nice diversion as I think about all the beutiful trees I chainsawed and burned to stay warm or even keep from freezing to death, Sometimes I miss the sled dogs but did you say its raining, Just jump a cab to SEATAC come on over, Ill get some extra ice in a bag for the tea.

 

[bmattock]

Bill's not, people just don't like the writing on the wall.

I don't like it either, actually. But the first rule of business is this - what is, is. I try to deal with reality and leave emotions out of it.

That's why I am working towards finding alternate sources of B&W film.

I don't believe that film will survive in the long term (obviously), but I do believe that B&W will survive longer than color print or slide film - cheaper, easier to make, more factories making it. As the big boys get out of the business, that creates short-term opportunities for the little guys - that bounce that Andy observed. Money to be made there, and from people who are happy to have any choices.

The trick is to know when the show is over and be ready for the next thing.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[Andy K]

I'm sorry, do you walk with a limp. There was something limp back there, now that you mention it.

Of course there was, that big ol' 400 pound butt of yours in plaid shorts does nothing for my libido, now if you were shaped like Halle Berry...

 

[bmattock]

Of course there was, that big ol' 400 pound butt of yours in plaid shorts does nothing for my libido, now if you were shaped like Halle Berry...

Only 280 pounds, big fella. You stallion, you. You know you want some.

 

[parks5920]

this is turning ugly, really ugly.

 

[ChrisPlatt]

Does the Nikon USA website carry the same announcement?

"Excelsior, you fathead!"
-Chris-

 

[quokka]

This is all rather disheartening to someone who is just getting starting in film (other than taking mediocre snapshots with my Olympus P&S).

I hadn't realised that the chemicals involved are so toxic that it is unlikely that new plants will be built, even in countries with less rigorous pollution standards, but it seems plausible. Do the problems come during the manufacturing of the chemicals themselves, or during their use in a film-making plant?

Bill's basic premise, that any manufacturing plant has fixed costs independent of production volume, is clearly true. As demand drops, the per-unit manufacturing cost will rise, and some of this increase will be passed to buyers. At a certain price point, demand will drop to zero. (Would you be willing to pay $100/roll for Tri-X as a matter of course?) At this point, film dies. Note that this point depends on the fixed costs of the plant.

My question is: what are these costs. Bill's position is that they are huge, which I am sure is true of the giant plants of Kodak and Fuji. Obviously these plants quickly lead to per-unit prices which the market cannot bear (or to losses which the manufacturer will not bear).

aad's post suggests that improvements in technology mean that plants much smaller than these can be economical with, one presumes, much lower fixed costs. Such a plant will be able to provide acceptable per-unit prices at a lower level of demand than the mega-plants of Kodak et. al. We might end up paying $15/roll of Tri-X, though.

So, does anyone know where the truth lies?

Should I be stockpiling thousands of rolls of film now in my freezer (even though I don't know what film I like)?

Should I bother developing (ha ha) my embryonic plans for a home darkroom?

Is it worth picking up used film cameras, cheap as they are, if we won't be able to use them in the near to medium future?

Sigh.

Rory

 

[enochRoot]

Joerg said:

"hehehe...oddly enough, my other hobby is designing and building tube amps!! long live analog technology. oh...and i don't own a cd player. records only."

HA! Me too! Except I do own seedees and a player. Oh, and I do horn speakers.

What's your best effort - amp-wise? I'm running Push-Pull 6B4G's, about 15W. Pretty good, but I want to try a PP 300B.

actually it should be "enochRoot said" 😀

putting the finishing touches on my best project to date. a push-pull vt-25 amp that uses 6J5s as driver tubes transformer coupled phase splitting to the output. good for 2.5-3 watts. and naturally i use horn speakers too based on the low wattage 😉 i would love to try 300b or 2a3 PP some day. so far, this has been my only PP triode amp. all the others were single-ended. what kind of speakers do you have? i have a pair of YL-15s (old 60s/70s japanese speakers).

and your name sounds familiar. diyaudio? audioasylum? i've seen it before.

 

[aad]

Quokka, buying a lot of film now to save isn't really a bad idea if it makes you feel better, especially the old-style black and white-it won't go bad. I wouldn't panic yet, though.

 

[bmattock]

www.audiokarma.org is actually the place to go for bottle heads. Or so I hear.

 

[bmattock]

Should I bother developing (ha ha) my embryonic plans for a home darkroom?

Is it worth picking up used film cameras, cheap as they are, if we won't be able to use them in the near to medium future?

Sigh.

Rory

Rory,

I would not worry too much about B&W - that will be the last to go. And home dev is B&W mostly. You can pick up on the last of the Agfa store-brand films being sold off in Walgreens and etc as house brand films and save some money too.

I would not invest the house in film cameras, but that's me. And I have - hundreds of film cameras. And I would still be buying them if my budget permitted. You'd think I'd know better.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[Byuphoto]

The announcement was also on Fox news, this evening. How in the world did this become a soap opera for Andy to jump on the "my way is better bandwagon" and Bill to once to take things to a new level. I am amazed at what this tuned into. All i was trying to show was that Nikon was getting out of the pro-sumer film camera business and I am sure Canon will soon follow. This only means more cheap manual focus and now some Af cameras being dumped. In the current issue of Rangefinder magazine, Fuji runs a four page pull out ad about there pro film. I don't think they are quitting just yet.

 

[Bertram2]

Well I'll be- I'm surprised at the level of pessimism and lack of faith in free markets. The most important thing a business needs is customers willing to pay. Beyond that everything is open.
I've marked January '08 with a reminder to get some film. I'm betting I can go down the street and buy a roll of C41 color film just like today. And the sky will be in place.

No doubt about it ! Same in 2018 and in 2028. Film is "dead" when it isn't available any longer. Nowhere in the world. Not for $30 a roll and not for $300. As long as it is available it is not dead tho. So far about my definition of "dead" !

That's all not more than the silly conjuration of those who some years ago decided to sell us digital cameras solely and who try to do their very best to accelerate this process of changing the technology by partly giving up film production.
At the time the screaming about "film is dead " isn't more than plain marketing propaganda. Markets are made by consumers tho and they solely decide if film will vanish.

Agfa was killed intentionallyy, Ilford tho was saved and I am optimistic it will be one of those companies who will survive. And instead of staring of what kind of film isn't produced any longer we should better watch what an amazing portfolio they still produce, that's a really amazing bunch of "dead" stuff .
And considering that film is dead since 5 years already it is amazing what a stunning variety of products i still can buy here at any photoshop next corner, not to speak of the mail order companies.
There were too many players on the film market anyway, long before digital developed serious impact on the market, and there would have come a very serious consolidation anyway. That is forgotten as it seems tho this situation was the driving force for Kodak to go digital . Digital was the way out of a crowded and
not longer growing photo market, film as well as cameras !

And considering this pre-condition , which had an enormous additional impact, the shrinking of the film market since 2000 looks surprisingly undramatic, the reduction of sold film as well as the narrowing of the product portfolios.
CEWE, Germany's largest lab said half a year ago that still 70% of their 3 Billion prints per anno come from negs, THAT's what the FACTS are now, 5 years after
film was declared as beeing definitively dead. Tells me they still haven't managed to kill the P&S film market, not to speak of that niche about we WE speak here.

To parrot the conjurations of some puffers is a popular sport but has nothing to do with any kind of forecast competence, the truth is in the markets , not in the babble of those who try to push their business. And the markets tell us film is still alive and it will stay alive, no matter how fast and intensive the shrinking process of this market will run in future.

bertram

 

[nwcanonman]

The sun is just breaking onto my 40 foot tall bamboos behind my office and the birds are chirping away and excited as Thailand on the China Sea or Gulf of Siam breaks into another perfect day. Its a little cool right now at 69F but no worrys it will be 85 in a couple hours and my Iced Tea will make a nice diversion as I think about all the beutiful trees I chainsawed and burned to stay warm or even keep from freezing to death, Sometimes I miss the sled dogs but did you say its raining, Just jump a cab to SEATAC come on over, Ill get some extra ice in a bag for the tea.

.......
Bryan,
Thanks for the invite. I grew up in the Mojave desert and chose to move up to the rainy NW-USA on purpose. This many actual "rainy days" is an aberration, dispite Seattle's reputation. :bang: Normally we get clouds and a few sprinkles.
I'm listening to some "dead" LP's, played on a 1982 Technics receiver
, "Riders on the storm" 😛

 

[bean_counter]

sorry enochRoot 😱 - was at work, in a hurry, shoulda been working instead of surfing RFF...

VT-25 is a nice valve. I've heard it flea-power single ended, PP sounds like a more feasible real-world amp. I do a single triode driver (417A) with transformer phase splitting as well; it's a very clean solution, particularly with the way 6B4G/2A3's are fussy with grid resistors. I'm ALMOST a believer of the saying "never let a resistor do the job of a good piece of iron".

Have not heard YL-15's, tho I have read that they are quite nice.

I use less efficient speakers, hence the PP 6B4G amp. They're based on JBL L300's, in different cabs, with Edgar 'salad bowl' wooden tractrix horns and 076 'cat-eyes' instead of the slot tweeter. The amp/speaker combo is a good solution in a bigger room, it can handle large/complex works, and the big 15" JBL can get down fairly low with authority, so no sub needed.

Used to be at the asylum quite a bit, but not much for a couple of years; deleted my monicker and shortened my name to 'bean' when another (now deceased) inmate started getting, well, weird. Mostly on HiEff asylum now, occasionally hanging out with the Chicago hornies.