Nikon going out of the film camera business

[bmattock]

I'll really have to look, Bill. I hope I can find it.I can hazard an explanation: Throwaway camera's i.e. film and lens in a box.

Here's what I was able to find - this information is from PMA Photo Industry 2005 - Review and Forecast. Bear in mind that the data are only correct for 2004 - it was forecast for 2005. The 2006 Review and Forecast would be a review of 2005 and a forecast for 2006, but it is not available to me yet:

Digital camera sales grew 40 percent in 2004 reaching 18.2 million units. Twenty-and-a-half million are projected to be sold in 2005 to account for 82 percent of total camera sales, up from 73 percent in 2004. Including film units, the camera market grew 3 percent in 2004. Helped by new users but also additional household purchases and replacements, digital cameras are expected to continue their growth in 2006 before reaching their peak at the end of that year or the next. As the digital camera market matures, industry revenue will increasingly depend on accessories, consumables and services.

PMA estimates that sales of single-use cameras peaked in 2004 at 218 million units. Sales will be virtually unchanged in 2005. Despite their growth, single-use cameras were unable to help the overall film market that declined by 19 percent in 2004 to 656 million units and is projected to fall to 532 million in 2005.

Now - let me turn to film camera sales in 2005. The most recent data I have access to is from the Camera & Imaging Products Association(CIPA), an international organization that all the major international camera manufacturers are members of. Astoundingly:

http://www.cipa.jp/english/

In November of 2004, film (still) cameras of all types (single use to Large Format) accounted for 9.2 million units sold. In November of 2005, 1.5 million. Sales did not just drop - they fell off a freaking cliff. According to CIPA, still camera sales were 16.5% of the same month the year previous. Man, that's heart-stopping.

No wonder Nikon is stopping film camera production. Getting back to the original point of the OP's post - I don't know why Nikon even bothered to announce it at all - it seems self-evident!

Using the same data source and looking at digital camera production - November 2005 was a total of 143.5 million cameras, versus November 2004's total of 151 million.

Some will grab those numbers - 151 million digital cameras made in 11/04 and compare that to 143.5 million digital cameras made in 11/05, and proclaim that digital is a fad, it's dying, game over.

But come on. 151 million digital cameras produced in one month of 2005, versus 9.2 million film cameras. We're not even talking niche products here. And that film number includes the single-use cameras, too. Focal-plane camera sales (not including MF and LF) were a mere 500,000 in November 2005, worldwide - a 75% decline from the same month in 2004.

I dunno. I think the proof is in the pudding. But I can't argue anymore. If that's not enough evidence for my RFF buddies, then I give up. All through this lengthy thread, I've posted my cites and sources. Anyone can read what I read, do the math I did, come to their own conclusions. If I'm way off base, I'm ready to be corrected. But I don't think you can rationally say that film has a future after reading these numbers and analysts reports of actual sales, especially given recent events (Agfa and Nikon).

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[titrisol]

"The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated"

Nikon is leving the enlarger lenses and LF lenses manufacturing, same with MF lenses.
What they say is that they still have stock, not worried for the short term.

 

[pesphoto]

This is from an article on Yahoo I just read. Proud to be a maniac!

"Only film camera maniacs and a limited number of professionals will buy film cameras now," said Kouichi Fujimoto, an analyst at Okasan Securities.

 

[Taipei-metro]

I would hardly call China an 'emerging nation'. Film photography has been strong in China for many years. Also the majority of their population live on the land, as sharecroppers etc. They do not have the infrastructure for the 'digital age'. A household computer would be about as much use as a doorstop to many in rural China. They do however have and use their old film cameras, from 35mm through medium format up to large format.
It isn't just China, even here in Britain there are areas where you cannot use mobile phones, where you cannot get broadband connections.
The assumption that everyone everywhere can adapt to digital technology is foolish. What about areas like the Himalaya? The Russian Steppes? These are vast places with large populations, where digital technologies are useless.
Not everyone lives in cities with access to all the necessary back up technology for the 'digital age'.

China is not an emerging country?
Where have you been in the last 10 years? Prison?
Why do you think the Chinese kicked your guys butt out of Hong Kong? Because of the lease is up? The 99 years lease was up 50 years before 1997! Did you see the Communist Chinese flag flying, when the People's Liberation Army enter Hong Kong in the rain...even we, in Taipei (thru CNN Live) weeped.

Get out of your chair go to Beiging, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenjung or Hong Kong, these 5 metro cities have more population and land mass than the GREAT Britain (minus N. Ireland). No one under 30 is doing film. Because Fuji, Konica, Kodak are opening up digital printing shop faster than Starbucks, we're talking 10 cent per 4X6( will, Kodak is more expensive..12c) prints now.

Have you been to Tokyo, Seoul or Taipei (combined 25 million population) lately? these people eat w chapstics, took pictures w digital cameras, and the Fuji printing shop maybe right next door to your favorite shabu-shabu restaurant right next to Starbucks right next to Konica lab.

Taiwan exports more than 10 million( that right 10 mil) digital camera lenses a year, for the accounting purposes this figure may be on the low side.

80 percent of the Chinese lived on the East cost, 20 % on the rural country, that's right you can't hop on a train and go to Sinjiang, mind you that, China is larger than the whole Europe, both in landmass and population combined. Infrastructure needs time to built in the rural countryside. This is still a communist country, look at Russia, Cuba N. Korea, or Mongolia( used to be China rule, they sided w USSR in 1921, now the Russian's gone, so is it's economy) now.

Nikon digital is one generation (9-momth) behind Canon, they kept the F6 (FM10 is Cosina not Nikon), because it's only been out for a year and their last flagship.
X-pan, II, or TX1,2, should be discontinuted, 2 years early! concentrated on digital Fuji, or you maybe end up like Konica, merging with.....Olympus? Fuji-Oly san.

 

[Andy K]

China is not an emerging country?
Where have you been in the last 10 years? Prison?
Why do you think the Chinese kicked your guys butt out of Hong Kong? Because of the lease is up? The 99 years lease was up 50 years before 1997! Did you see the Communist Chinese flag flying, when the People's Liberation Army enter Hong Kong in the rain...even we, in Taipei (thru CNN Live) weeped.

Get out of your chair go to Beiging, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenjung or Hong Kong, these 5 metro cities have more population and land mass than the GREAT Britain (minus N. Ireland). No one under 30 is doing film. Because Fuji, Konica, Kodak are opening up digital printing shop faster than Starbucks, we're talking 10 cent per 4X6( will, Kodak is more expensive..12c) prints now.

Have you been to Tokyo, Seoul or Taipei (combined 25 million population) lately? these people eat w chapstics, took pictures w digital cameras, and the Fuji printing shop maybe right next door to your favorite shabu-shabu restaurant right next to Starbucks right next to Konica lab.

Taiwan exports more than 10 million( that right 10 mil) digital camera lenses a year, for the accounting purposes this figure may be on the low side.

80 percent of the Chinese lived on the East cost, 20 % on the rural country, that's right you can't hop on a train and go to Sinjiang, mind you that, China is larger than the whole Europe, both in landmass and population combined. Infrastructure needs time to built in the rural countryside. This is still a communist country, look at Russia, Cuba N. Korea, or Mongolia( used to be China rule, they sided w USSR in 1921, now the Russian's gone, so is it's economy) now.

Nikon digital is one generation (9-momth) behind Canon, they kept the F6 (FM10 is Cosina not Nikon), because it's only been out for a year and their last flagship.
X-pan, II, or TX1,2, should be discontinuted, 2 years early! concentrated on digital Fuji, or you maybe end up like Konica, merging with.....Olympus? Fuji-Oly san.

Both you and Bmattock have completely misunderstood what I said. I do not consider China an emerging nation. I do not consider any of the 'Tiger economies' as 'emerging'. I consider China and the rest of the Tiger economies as established players, and they have been established players for decades.

Now please go spout your vitriol at someone else.

 

[RJBender]

....Now - let me turn to film camera sales in 2005. The most recent data I have access to is from the Camera & Imaging Products Association(CIPA), an international organization that all the major international camera manufacturers are members of. Astoundingly:

http://www.cipa.jp/english/

In November of 2004, film (still) cameras of all types (single use to Large Format) accounted for 9.2 million units sold. In November of 2005, 1.5 million. Sales did not just drop - they fell off a freaking cliff. According to CIPA, still camera sales were 16.5% of the same month the year previous. Man, that's heart-stopping.

No wonder Nikon is stopping film camera production. Getting back to the original point of the OP's post - I don't know why Nikon even bothered to announce it at all - it seems self-evident!

Using the same data source and looking at digital camera production - November 2005 was a total of 143.5 million cameras, versus November 2004's total of 151 million.

Ok, here is November 2004
http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/s_200411.pdf
and here is November 2005
http://www.cipa.jp/english/data/pdf/s_200511.pdf
The top line is units produced. The bottom line is 1,000 ¥. Your numbers are 1,000¥ not units produced.
Units produced fell from 893,357 units in November 2004 to 449,690 units in November 2005. That's 50.3% of the units produced during the same month in 2004 (column 4)

See footnotes at the bottom of the page:
Note ：1) Figures by CIPA member companies' only , including their overseas production.
2) Interchangeable lenses included standard lenses also, excepting lenses used only for APS Camera and Digital Camera.
3) Comparison over the previous month.
4) Comparison over the same month a year ago.
5) Comparison over the same period a year ago.

What companies belong to CIPA?

Look at the Jan-Nov columns. Divide the production (1,000 ¥) by # of units. YTD November 2004 was 5,228¥ per unit. YTD November 2005 was 3,882¥ per unit.
Using today's conversion rate that's $45 per unit in 2004 and $34 per unit in 2005.

R.J.

 

[Taipei-metro]

Both you and Bmattock have completely misunderstood what I said. I do not consider China an emerging nation. I do not consider any of the 'Tiger economies' as 'emerging'. I consider China and the rest of the Tiger economies as established players, and they have been established players for decades.

Now please go spout your vitriol at someone else.

Well, you are the English, you invented the language.
Do you think you guys can hold on to that Falkland sheep Island, if Argentina was China? even in 1982? I don't think so.
You may say, Argentina is not an emerging country.
By the way, any digital cameras made in GB? I'll buy one.

 

[Andy K]

Well, you are the English, you invented the language.
Do you think you guys can hold on to that Falkland sheep Island, if Argentina was China? even in 1982? I don't think so.
You may say, Argentina is not an emerging country.
By the way, any digital cameras made in GB? I'll buy one.

You obviously don't like the British, so I'll ignore your rudeness.

 

[ch1]

My goodness!

I left here on page 8 and now you're up to page11 ! 😎

Couldn't read it all - but I think Bill M. is now disagreeing with himself - he's answering his own posts! 😀

Andy K.'s "yankme, spankme" riposte was a good one - but please, no uploads to the Gallery on that score - this is a G-rated website! 😉

Wonder what more will transpire when I tune in tonight! 😱

 

[bmattock]

Sorry, yes, you're right - I should have said "Yen" and not "Units sold". I think the comparisons are correct, as are the percentages, though. Same issue, but now dealing with money instead of unit numbers. My bad.

See footnotes at the bottom of the page:
Note ：1) Figures by CIPA member companies' only , including their overseas production.
2) Interchangeable lenses included standard lenses also, excepting lenses used only for APS Camera and Digital Camera.
3) Comparison over the previous month.
4) Comparison over the same month a year ago.
5) Comparison over the same period a year ago.

What companies belong to CIPA?

Canon Inc
CASIO COMPUTER CO., LTD
Fuji Photo Film Co.,Ltd.
Hewlett-Packard Japan
Konica Minolta Photo Imaging, Inc.
Mamiya-OP Co.,Ltd
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.,Ltd.
NIDEC COPAL CORPORATION
Nikon Corporation
NOKIA JAPAN CO.LTD.
OLYMPUS CORPORATION
PENTAX Corporation
Ricoh Co., Ltd.
SANYO Electric Co., Ltd
SEIKO EPSON CORPORATION
SEIKO Precision Inc.
SIGMA CORPORATION
Sony Corporation
Tamron Co.,Ltd.
Tokina Corporation

Look at the Jan-Nov columns. Divide the production (1,000 ¥) by # of units. YTD November 2004 was 5,228¥ per unit. YTD November 2005 was 3,882¥ per unit.
Using today's conversion rate that's $45 per unit in 2004 and $34 per unit in 2005.

R.J.

Was last year's conversion rate the same - ie, can you use today's conversion rate for this year and last year's numbers?

In any case, that's fascinating on the price per unit, but what does it mean? Whether we count units or yen, the film camera market is a fraction of the digital camera market by CIPA's count, and year on year the decline in film camera production is breathtaking.

If I'm misinterpreting the data, let me know.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[bmattock]

Both you and Bmattock have completely misunderstood what I said. I do not consider China an emerging nation. I do not consider any of the 'Tiger economies' as 'emerging'. I consider China and the rest of the Tiger economies as established players, and they have been established players for decades.

I understand that one interpretation of 'emerging nation' is the formerly communist nations that were sheltered by the former Soviet Union and Communist China - so China itself would not be an 'emerging nation' by those terms.

However, the term is commonly used to describe China's economic growth, as well as their 'emergence' into the outside world. They are definitely asserting themselves as a world power - I consider that 'emerging'.

But I have to say this, Andy. You seem to pounce on trifles. If I say the sky is blue and the grass is greene, you say I mispelled green and refuse to address the rest of the argument. I find it disingenuous.

Now please go spout your vitriol at someone else.

In this case, it would appear that Tapei Metro (whom I also frequently disagree with) has called your bluff and pointed out that China is hardly an agrarian peasant-based economy anymore, which you had asserted it was. He said it with some rudeness as you pointed out - but of course now his actual valid points go by the wayside, ignored.

Again, disingenuous.

If you have a case to make, make it. Otherwise, you're just like John McEnroe; arguing about the width of the regulation white stripes on the court instead of the results of the tennis match.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[bmattock]

My goodness!

I left here on page 8 and now you're up to page11 ! 😎

Couldn't read it all - but I think Bill M. is now disagreeing with himself - he's answering his own posts! 😀

Andy K.'s "yankme, spankme" riposte was a good one - but please, no uploads to the Gallery on that score - this is a G-rated website! 😉

Wonder what more will transpire when I tune in tonight! 😱

You will all have to carry on without me. I have a gallery opening to attend - several of my photos and 150 or so other photos go on display at the Wayne County Council for the Arts in Goldsboro, NC. Not exactly the big time, but I do what I can.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[ch1]

Bi,, M., Andy K. and taipei-metro:

Please gentlemen, keep them "above the belt". This thread is too amusing to have Joe cut it off! 😀

Regards,
copake_ham and the rest of the audience

 

[Andy K]

I understand that one interpretation of 'emerging nation' is the formerly communist nations that were sheltered by the former Soviet Union and Communist China - so China itself would not be an 'emerging nation' by those terms.

However, the term is commonly used to describe China's economic growth, as well as their 'emergence' into the outside world. They are definitely asserting themselves as a world power - I consider that 'emerging'.

But I have to say this, Andy. You seem to pounce on trifles. If I say the sky is blue and the grass is greene, you say I mispelled green and refuse to address the rest of the argument. I find it disingenuous.



In this case, it would appear that Tapei Metro (whom I also frequently disagree with) has called your bluff and pointed out that China is hardly an agrarian peasant-based economy anymore, which you had asserted it was. He said it with some rudeness as you pointed out - but of course now his actual valid points go by the wayside, ignored.

Again, disingenuous.

If you have a case to make, make it. Otherwise, you're just like John McEnroe; arguing about the width of the regulation white stripes on the court instead of the results of the tennis match.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

20% of a billion people living on the land is no small amount. I stand by my comments.
I was misunderstood by both you and Taipei. Taipei chose to use it to be rude and insulting. I feel I have a right to respond to that.
As for accusing me of jumping on every little point, that's a bit rich coming from you.

Ps. I said NOTHING about 'peasants'. That is YOU being disingenuous.

 

[bmattock]

20% of a billion people living on the land is no small amount. I stand by my comments.
I was misunderstood by both you and Taipei. Taipei chose to use it to be rude and insulting. I feel I have a right to respond to that.
As for accusing me of jumping on every little point, that's a bit rich coming from you.

Ps. I said NOTHING about 'peasants'. That is YOU being disingenuous.

OK, Andy, I beg your forgiveness. You did not use the word "peasant."

And I do jump on points - logical points which tend to prove or disprove an argument.

Whether or not China is an 'emerging nation' has little to do with the statement that they are jumping from no cameras to digital cameras (which I asserted), does it? It's a distraction and has nothing to do with the point.

But I think we've established that you do not consider China to be an emerging nation. I'm fine with your definition, and I'll not call it that again, for your comfort.

I still assert that China is moving directly from no cameras to digital cameras, and it bypassing film cameras altogether in a classic case of 'technology jumping'. I support this point with Kodak's own actions and public statement - they fired their American leadership team in China and hired a 'local talent' crew, while admitting that they misled themselves by thinking that China would have a huge upturn in film camera sales which would sustain their profits while they converted the rest of their world to digital cameras. They were wrong and they said so - I agree with them.

Is the chalk line wide enough now, Mister McEnroe?

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[bmattock]

Bi,, M., Andy K. and taipei-metro:

Please gentlemen, keep them "above the belt". This thread is too amusing to have Joe cut it off! 😀

Regards,
copake_ham and the rest of the audience

No cutting things off below my belt, please. That would be bad. Mrs. Mattocks would be sad.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[RJBender]

Canon Inc
CASIO COMPUTER CO., LTD
Fuji Photo Film Co.,Ltd.
Hewlett-Packard Japan
Konica Minolta Photo Imaging, Inc.
Mamiya-OP Co.,Ltd
Matsushita Electric Industrial Co.,Ltd.
NIDEC COPAL CORPORATION
Nikon Corporation
NOKIA JAPAN CO.LTD.
OLYMPUS CORPORATION
PENTAX Corporation
Ricoh Co., Ltd.
SANYO Electric Co., Ltd
SEIKO EPSON CORPORATION
SEIKO Precision Inc.
SIGMA CORPORATION
Sony Corporation
Tamron Co.,Ltd.
Tokina Corporation

Hey, where's Cosina?

Was last year's conversion rate the same - ie, can you use today's conversion rate for this year and last year's numbers?

In any case, that's fascinating on the price per unit, but what does it mean? Whether we count units or yen, the film camera market is a fraction of the digital camera market by CIPA's count, and year on year the decline in film camera production is breathtaking.

I used this online currency convertor.
This site has historical rates. $1=114¥ today $1=103¥ on 11/30/2004. $1=119¥ on 11/30/2005. So change $45 to $50 per unit and $34 to $33 per unit.
What does all this mean? I'd have to sift through the data but it looks like the demand for cheap film cameras is declining.

R.J.

 

[ch1]

OK, Andy, I beg your forgiveness. You did not use the word "peasant."

And I do jump on points - logical points which tend to prove or disprove an argument.

Whether or not China is an 'emerging nation' has little to do with the statement that they are jumping from no cameras to digital cameras (which I asserted), does it? It's a distraction and has nothing to do with the point.

But I think we've established that you do not consider China to be an emerging nation. I'm fine with your definition, and I'll not call it that again, for your comfort.

I still assert that China is moving directly from no cameras to digital cameras, and it bypassing film cameras altogether in a classic case of 'technology jumping'. I support this point with Kodak's own actions and public statement - they fired their American leadership team in China and hired a 'local talent' crew, while admitting that they misled themselves by thinking that China would have a huge upturn in film camera sales which would sustain their profits while they converted the rest of their world to digital cameras. They were wrong and they said so - I agree with them.

Is the chalk line wide enough now, Mister McEnroe?

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

Now that we've got that figured out.....

My wife was in Shanghai last month on business. She brought along my Canon G1. Everywhere she went there were street peddlers offering to sell her a memory card.

And hech, where do you think they are MAKING all these digital P&S's anyway?

As an aside, after the 1997 Asian financial meltdown it has been considered de classe to use the term "emerging nation" or "emerging economy". The joke back in the Summer of '97 was that these were now "submerging nations". 😀

WARNING AND NOTICE:

THE ABOVE ASIDE IS INTENDED SOLELY AS AN AMUSING ANECDOTE MEANT TO BRING A SMILE TO YOUR FACE!

DO NOT RESPOND, FLAME OR SEND PM'S OF OUTRAGE TO THE MODERTOR!

 

[bmattock]

Hey, where's Cosina?

Sorry, they're an associate member:

CIPA Associate Members
ALPS
APG
Chinon
Cosina
Digipri
EFI
eSOL
Fujifilm
Fuji Xerox
Goko Camera
Hitachi
ImageLink
Kobori
Kodak Company
Lexmark
Mitsubishi
NEC
Nittohkogaku
Polaroid
Sagem
Samsung
Samsung Techwin
Seiko
Sekonic
Tocad
Toshiba

I used this online currency convertor.
This site has historical rates. $1=114¥ today $1=103¥ on 11/30/2004. $1=119¥ on 11/30/2005. So change $45 to $50 per unit and $34 to $33 per unit.
What does all this mean? I'd have to sift through the data but it looks like the demand for cheap film cameras is declining.

R.J.

I would agree. My jaw-dropping astonishment was mostly contained to the comparison between film camera production numbers between 11/04 and 11/05, but there are all kinds of interesting data to be mined here.

Some people would find it strange that I like sitting down and trying to figure out what is going on by looking over columns of numbers like these. But then, I'm metrics boy.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[RJBender]

Is the chalk line wide enough now, Mister McEnroe?

Tennis? I thought we were playing a bloody game of soccer.
Take an idea, kick it around for a few days and finally the truth is revealed.
:angel:
R.J.