NYC Journal

[Calzone]

The thought comes to mind that if we have a “soft-landing” that perhaps high interest rates will have to remain to keep the economy clamped down and will be somewhat a restriction. I do believe in “higher for longer” and this also supports “regression-to-the-mean” to balance crazy low interest rates that were prolonged.

I would expect limited economic growth that might border on stagnation for an extended period. Perhaps I could call or name this time as “The Great Stagnation.”

I figure if we had a really historic expansion fueled by credit card like spending by governments that eventually the slow pain of reducing that spending has to probably lead to some form of austerity and restriction of all the money that was created by things like stimulus and Quantitative Easing.

“The money has to come from somewhere,” I always say.

I am in the process of eliminating my taxed deferred savings because of tax reasons. Inflation I think/belive will persist, especially with a soft landing as prices will not really correct/reset/ or go down. In my case it makes sense to buy things and spend the money now rather than later.

Time and taxes are not my friends. If I wait pretty much I run the risk of getting priced out, but then again I can’t waste the money because it is a limited resource. Things like all the home improvements I think are good judgements.

I will also say that my thinking is framed by my age and “Positionaliity” because I’m retired and will be living on a fixed income when I’m 70. In other words I have an envelope to zero my 403b. Collecting my RMD starting at age 72 to me makes no sense because even then my fixed income will be high and overall I’ll get killed with taxes.

If I am right about The Great Stagnation also time will not be my friend and time will erode the value and purchasing power of my savings.

There is an expression called “follow the money.” Pretty much look at what the UBER wealthy are doing. I believe much of our economy and growth is spending by the wealthy. My thinking is aligned with their thinking.

I have a few more years of spending left, but what happens when the UBER wealthy stop with their binge?

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Joe,

I too believe Israel does not have the Short Takeoff and Landing version of the F-35. All the F-16’s and F-15’s they already own and use are platforms that can use the F-35’s fire controls. My point is that serious technology already is at hand, but F-15 EX’s adds mucho serious offensive and defensive capabilities.

If I remember correctly a F-15 EX can carry 24 long range Air-To-Air missles along with other payload. Pretty much it can launch all 24 and still be a serious fighter plane as a secondary function and backup. 30K pounds of payload is a very serious payload for offense or defense. Pretty much a force multiplier.

If I were China or Russia I would seriously be worried if the west and it’s allies started loading up with the fire power of squadrons of F15 EX’s because this would allow a much go crazy advantage also for offensive operations and huge deep strike capabilities.

If we build out the right amount of deterrence it could/would avoid wars. I think a great deterrent. A fight is different when your enemy is scared. If a Cold War is an arms race we still have the upper hand if we are not dumb and stupid.

As an American I like having scared enemies. Also I want our side to have the best weapons.

Interesting to note that when China sent a load of planes over Taiwan as a show of force a while back to violate their airspace, but pretty much all the planes flew from one air base.

It would of been much more impressive if that amount of planes converged all at the same time over Taiwan from all different airbases as a coordinated attack. I would be more scared if they, the Chinese could actually would of or even could of done that.

Know that in the last war China experienced they tried to invade Vietnam, and China took a humiliating beating. That experience was a long time ago, but experience is a very big asset in fighting.

So let’s play the game in this new Cold War. IMHO we need to win the Cold War to prevent a Hot War.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Correction: The F-35 can utilize two AMBER 22 Air-To-Air ejector racks to hold 22 AIM 120 AMRAAM medium range missles. The generic name is a “Sparrow” missile with a a range of 57 nautical miles. There is a AIM 120”D” variant that has a longer range of 86 nautical miles. Top speed via a solid propellant id Mach 4, or four times the speed of sound.

This missle is a “Fire-And-Forget” and needs no guidance once launched on a target.

I have reported earlier a total of 24, but that number includes utilizing two other “hard points.” For clarity I wanted to be more specific.

There is also a new type of stealth cruise missile that has stealth capabilities and a 1K pound warhead. In this design the trade off hugging the ground for evasion of detection and substituted stealth for survivor ability. A bonus is extended range.

An update is that the F-35 only has a mission payload of 5.7K pounds using its internal weapons bays for stealth mode, but after achieving and establishing air superiority it can be converted into “Beast” mode where it can carry 22K pounds of weapons using combine internal and external hard points.

Pair a F-35 with a F-15 EX or two to really frag an enemy with mucho fire power.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I experience a narcotic effect yesterday from eating a rather large portion of my lasagna. I would think it was a kin to being doped on heroin where I kinda could not stay awake and I faded in and out of consciousness. It was a high of sorts, kinda pleasant.

I really did not stuff myself full like an eating disorder, but I figure my body kinda got stressed trying to break down a large portion of nutrient rich food and perhaps the protein load.

I also suspect that my body is not use to eating that many calories. How did eating lead to exhaustion? Anyways, that’s kinda what I experienced.

We ate around 1:00, and I had skipped having breakfast. Before the lasagna I indulged on some chips and a pretty heavy dose of chocolate because of no breakfast. I had no dinner and the fatigue from eating persisted. I went to bed early and got up at 6:00 AM my normal time.

So now I know that I can’t binge eat like I use to. Oh-well.

Saw a city vehicle checking out the empty house today. My neighborhood is so quiet that anything unusual gets detected. Also know my neighbors kinda use mucho surveillance at their homes, so much so that I don’t need any.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

It will be interesting how much of the sewer pipe repair will get covered by the “utility” section of our homeowner’s insurance. This technology of lining an existing damaged pipe was developed in 2017 for sewer pipes and it is basically the same technology that Con Ed uses to replace existing natural gas lines.

My past experiences with insurance companies leaves me with the feeling that they will worm out when they can. There is an upfront $500.00 deductible, and I’m cool with that part of it. The method we used likely might have been the costly way, and maybe just excavating and replacing the pipe would be a longer job but maybe less costly.

The 60-70 year old Japanese Maple was likely spared from root damage, and this tree holds a lot of value to our property.

One of our neighbors is known to call the building department. I don’t know is that is true or not. Don’t know why that Peekskill City vehicle was checking in on the empty house though.

Over the past year there was a lot of headlines and news on Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. Pretty much created a lot of fear. Then lately there has been a lot of business news that headlines pitfalls in China’s economy.

It seems that some of the U.S. aggression has been downplayed, but my research into the new arms race and Cold War swiftly indicates that there are very severe counter moves that have quickly developed to neutralize some Chinese threats.

The U.S. has figured out how to convert long range cruise missiles launched at standoff distances from B-52’s to take out China’s Navy. Pretty much these cruise missiles were to target land based fixed targets, but now they are converted to anti ship.

Kinda funny how the idea of a barrage was reversed.

Don’t know if China has much of the F-35 technology to have the capacity to track and take down a barrage, or even how good any of their cruise missile defenses are.

To have the best weapons, data processing for targeting, and for accuracy, all require advanced electronics. At this point electronics critical and technology is being curtailed, and it is doubtful that Chinese weapons will be more advanced.

The problem for us in the U.S. is procurement of sufficient quantities of weapons to actually neutralize and be a deterrent. We have the technology and a certain stockpile, but is it enough? The AIM 120 medium range missiles cost about $1M a piece. Just imagine 24 of them loaded on a F-15 EX and how costly it is to launch and utilize them. BTW the kill ration is about 50%.

Know that any aircraft that gets shot down costs more than a million dollars.

I mention the cost of war, but I am also indicating that war is really about destroying a country’s economy and capacity to conduct war or wars. Know that wars are costly.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

If a soft landing becomes reality it is predicted by many that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Pretty much an Island of stability of sorts could be established. This is what the markets are predicting.

We have some debt problems here in the U.S., but we are not alone, and pretty much the entire world is saddled with a pretty big debt load. Europe, China, the developing world… There is some real risk here if a country defaults and a debt crisis happens. Some believe it is just a matter of time before something blows up.

At this point the best position to be in is not to have debt because the debt with high interest rates is difficult to roll over and costly. That is the problem with commercial real estate here in the U.S.

In Canada they don’t have 30 year mortgages, and the terms are shorter and generally get refinanced. The percentage of income pretty much has created a sich-E-A-tion there with residential home debt.

In China homes are sold before they are constructed, and pretty much the original timelines for completion are stretched out over years. In some cases 4-6 years. This market was mucho speculative, and pretty much investors jumped the shark.

Anyways, a house of cards exists. Unwinding debt is difficult in times where borrowing is expensive: meaning high interest rates. Even the amount of government debt that gets rolled over to be paid later kinda promotes sustained higher interest rates. The possibility of government defaults also promotes higher interest rates to moderate risk of a government risk.

Pretty much a safe place to be is without debt, but many Americans sustained their standard of living by running up credit card balances. Now that payback will be difficult, especially if interest rates stay high.

Wall Street is thinking that the FED will lower rates sometime in 2024. If they are right the economy will need more stimulus to prevent a recession, but then more money gets printed and the possibility of inflation getting reignited again is a possibility. This is like walking a tight rope: one mistake and it is look out below.

A big what if is if China goes into a recession for the first time in decades. That would be a big mess. Don’t forget that now China is no longer our biggest trading partner; Mexico now is our number one trading partner.

Pretty much energy prices are low because the U.S. is now a net exporter of oil and energy like natural gas. We are also exporting lots of weapons to fuel wars.

Anyways debt is mucho evil and bad, especially now.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

WOW. That insurance claim for the sewer pipe was fast and easy.

The total bill was $7.5K and there was a $500.00 deductible. We are getting a $7.K payment.

I take back some of the negative experiences I have had in the past with insurance companies.

Some really great connections are happening with music theory where I am kinda understanding harmony. Pretty much gaps are being filled in and somehow my own language is forming as well as my own style. At a certain point you become both the student and teacher, and I’m kinda at that point.

This is really inspiring…

I just got back from Long Island. We visited the oral surgeon so “Maggie” could get some stitches taken out.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I am pleased that I own an arsenal of acoustic and electric guitars, basses, and a slew of amps. These were accumulated over time and pretty much are at mucho inflated prices today that are cost prohibited.

Somehow I also accumulated a bunch of vintage bikes. These are of personal value and not so much investments. I’m mighty glad I have these also.

Anyways good to have ammo. I have a lot.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I secured some smaller trays with lids to make smaller versions of lasagna. I figure I have 45 pounds of materials.

I need to increase the amount of sauce to better balance the meat and cheese. Also I will not compact the density. That was a mistake.

I have the small trays to feed ”Maggie” and me, but I have larger trays to feed 4-6 people.

So now I have the opportunity to do a re-do.

Time to wash up and pick up the guitar.

BTW the real estate loses in China are estimated to be around 4 trillion dollars. The explosion in their banking sector and these losses have not gone ka-boom yet.

During the housing crisis in 2007-2008 the losses were only about 700 million.

Also they report that the Chinese banks are highly leveraged so there actually might be a minefield bigger than the one in the Ukraine.

Cal

 

[Archiver]

I've just spent a little while reading your updates, they are a funny combination of insightful and random. I'm imagining you with giant trays of lasagna, surrounded by guitars while some finance thing plays on the TV behind you.

 

[Calzone]

A,

I post a lot about my kinda surprise transition into retirement. Even though I’m almost 66, it is a time of life where it is like when I was a 15-16 year old and wondering what I will do for the next 40-45 years.

Two good things happened with the pandemic: we bought the tiny Baby-Victorian; and I retired early at the age of 62.

I try to have a boring life because I never knew anyone with a complicated life that was happy, but my gal “Maggie” was a Go Daddy Girl, model, and formally a Digital Influencer. Pretty weird having a gal who is a celeb. Then we kinda got snookered into being models and are signed with an agent in London.

It is my fault because I love and seem to fall for crazy women. Check out her Instagram at IconAccidental and her website www.accidentalIcon.com.

My dad was an illegal immigrant, illiterate, and poor; but he lived to 94. According to longevity tests I should easily exceed 100. This is why fitness and biking is so important to me because I want to maintain an active life and continue to annoy people. Pretty much it seems that almost everything I do seems to annoy someone. Just being happy seems to annoy the many people who are not.

I kinda have been anti-China since the 1980’s. I did not like the cultural genocide and work camps that happened in Tibet. Pretty much I can speak out because ethnically I’m Chinese (Cantonese) and what I say as an American cannot be called racist.

Also know that basically I’m a white boy trapped in an Asian body. I definitely have a biracial identity that is mucho confused and because I’m a big drama queen it kinda gets played out here. Know in my past I was a NYC performance artist for about a decade.

Around 2007-2008 Damaso Reyes started the thread on having a NYC Meet-Up, but after a few months he left dodge to live in Barcelona, and somehow I got “snookered” into keeping the thread going.

Pretty much I promote myself as a “Lazy-Slacker” so this kinda annoyed me, but I started amping up the NYC Meet-Up in various ways. I decided to sponsor a “Camera Beauty Contest.” Then I used the Internet to start all this trash talking. At the first event we kinda made big fun of our camera nerdy culture and ourselves, and it got really-really rowdy In a New York way.

Pretty much I was like a Don King. LOL. Anyways this became an annual event. Things got even crazier.

There was a bit of a flash mob at a new bar in Harlem that was one event.

Then there was a trip to Eastern State Penitentiary in Philly wher 7 of us New Yorkers met up with 3 shooters in Philly to go photograph an abandoned prison.

There was a time during the lockdown where the social isolation took everyone down. This thread kept some of our friends in the world. I had to wait 3 months for my IPAD to get delivered during the lockdown, and some of our friends kept me informed. Some were worried I had been killed by Covid, others expressed just having a difficult time.

I try to have a safe place here; a place where it is not like social media; it is more about being a support group.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

“Maggie” kinda “outed” me as a writer at that house party that include many board members and writers.

I will say, “I was just minding my own business,” but I feel like I am yet getting “snookered” into doing yet something else I really don’t want to do.

I have a MFA in Creative Writing and kinda came close to getting past all the gate keeping.

I pretty much don’t want to do what “Maggie” is doing which is publishing a book in the mass market.

Anyways I kinda would be happy enough just to have a small ”cult” following. In fact I kinda already have that here.

I don’t want a frenzied life. Publishing a book is kinda crazy…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

59% of grandparents provide daycare. We are no longer doing this full-time for the grandson, but it seems like every other week we still get this duty because of illness. He is only 15-16 months old.

Today we have the grand daughter who is a 9 year old. She has a cold.

Because our lives are open pretty much this is not stressful, and the service can be pleasant, especially when we don’t have the two of them together. When we have double duty they compete for our full attention and it gets demanding.

Daycare not only is expensive here in New York, finding good daycare is not so easy.

So now we have pretty much an unpaid part time job, but it can be rewarding. These children have become strongly bonded to us.

Anyways trying to have a boring life or just relaxing is not part of my retirement. I am busy as every. Today a check in with “Maggie’s“ orthopedic specialist for a follow through from her bike crash. Then after lunch I need to get the Audi’s State Inspection.

Publishing a book leads to a frenzied life. Also I do not wish fame on anyone. Things get complicated fast. It actually is a hard job trying to be a lazy slacker.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

“Maggie” has some neck problems from sitting and holding tension. Physical therapy is required to prevent this turning into a chronic problem. Muscle relaxers are being prescribed. Kinda serious and needs to be addressed so that this does not lead to some debilitating problem.

Writing pretty much is bad for her health because it is sedimentary and involves sitting for extended periods of time. I’m fully aware of this.

I am glad that we are addressing all these health issues, and that the infrastructure we need is not only first rate but also nearby. A New York Presbyterian network hospital is just 2 miles away on the other side of Peekskill. We are pleased with the quality of care, and there is no need to have to go to NYC because NYC extends to our community.

A root canal cap tooth got compromised and it took out an adjoining tooth. Now a bone graft is healing and an implant will be performed in several months when the bone graft has unified. This was our dental emergency.

I have two capped molars, and pretty much these I can expect to deteriorate eventually in the same manner. Even though I am in remarkable health, parts of my body will need replacement. I have almost $10K set aside for when I will eventually get/need cataract surgery. Medicare only covers the basics, and any upgrades pretty much will have to come out of pocket.

I learned from Maggie that the state of the art surgery and the technology require a great surgeon. It cost about $8-9K for upgraded lenses. Maggie had very poor vision, and now it kinda is perfect, except she needs reading glasses. There was a possibility that no reading glasses would be required, but it turned out to be “Oh-well.”

In my case the longer I wait the better. In a recent eye exame I was told I only have the early beginning and my lenses have about a 95% transmission rate. It could be a decade or more before I need cataract surgery. By then I am told things will get even more advanced.

The $10K I have reserved is in a tax-deferred “Health Spending Account” that kinda works like a traditional IRA. The benefits are lowering your AGI (Adjusted Gross Income) so you pay less in taxes and save money. This money basically sits and can only be used for medical expenses.

I think this is a mucho smart move for anyone near retirement age. I only had the opportunity of maxing out this tax-deferred benefit for two years and if I remember correctly it amounts to about $9.2K.

I would also suggest to use this tax calculator at www.SmartAsset.com. Pretty much you plug in a state, your age and the numbers for your Social Security, pensions, and any tax deferred income; and you get a tax breakdown.

Pretty easy to do your own financial planning, get real numbers, and create a simple spread sheet. For most people taxes is about 1/3rd of your money.

You need to dig into how Social Security works. Use to be the age of 80-82 was the average life expectancy of an American, but that number of course is now skewed lower by Covid and increased suicide rates and Ox-E-Coation deaths. In other words life expectancy in America is likely now lower.

I mention the age of 80-82 because pretty much that number is used to calculate the actuary table that Social Security is built around. Everyone is different, but in my case I have a very high probability of living past 100, and of course that requires lots of money.

If I defer collecting Social Security till I’m 70, instead of collecting at my full retirement age of 66 1/2, I get about an 8% increase in payments for the rest of my life for every year I defer. In my case 24% more in payment.

If things work out to living past 82 I basically get more money, but say I get murdered, killed in a car accident, or beaten to death before I’m 82 then this decision would not result with me maximizing the amount of money I would receive as an entitlement.

Pretty much you have to look into your heath, your family history, and kinda make a good guess where at what age you most probably will die. Some pretty blunt and serious considerations.

There are some longevity tests that will kinda indicate where you might lie as far as life expectancy. Pretty much these numbers follow distribution curves used in statistics and pretty much follow likely outcomes and probability.

In my case a long life could be framed as a curse. My dad lived in a handicapped manner in pain and in a state of deterioration where quality of life was mucho poor. I was his caretaker more or less since he was 69 and I was only 13. I also did my best to take care of a younger brother also, but really I did not enough. I was only a kid.

Anyways now you know why I stress my independence and take good care of myself. There kinda is a reason why I am a bit of a caretaker, and my worries are for Maggie who kinda has had problems with anxiety and had a really crazy and frenzied life where she did not really take care of herself.

Don’t depend on the government to take care of you. Please consider the responsibility of looking into all this. Pretty much you don’t need a financial planner, and pretty much it is your own best interest to just simply take care of yourself and your family.

My dad suffered for decades… He lived till 94.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

BTW When I started looking into www.SmartAsset.com and looked into the numbers I learned that New York does not tax Social Security. Also $20K of my pension benefits is tax exempt.

I also was shocked and mighty surprised that I was in a lot better financial shape than I thought and I could easily afford to retire early at the age of 62.

To me working for free is by definition “slavery.”

My hospital cut additions to my pension so pretty much I was just working for a pay check and a small match to my tax-deferred account. Close enough for me as working for free.

Than again I’m a self proclaimed “Lazy-Slacker.”

If they fired me a year earlier for my mucho bad behavior it actually I figure would of been doing me a favor. Work was not worth my blood, sweat and tears.

My friendly advice is everyone needs to look into this. You might be surprised. Anyways having a plan is better than a bad surprise.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

How nice that when I had to go back to get my Audi it’s State Inspection that It was complimentary and free. There was a delay because they had a new machine installed, and then they had to wait for the new stickers from the state. Oh-well.

I’ve own the 2015 A4 for three full years now. Bought it with only 16K miles and now it has almost 38K, so 22K miles with nothing but gas and annual oil changes.

Kinda crazy how bad the housing shortage is. Got a solicitation in the mail to buy our house “as-is” for cash. They cover all closing costs.

I think we could sell our house for about 40% more than what we paid at least, and I think it would sell fast, even though it is a small/tiny house. Where would we live though, and we are mighty happy where we are. Seems like we got a great value, and we enjoyed great timing by locking in a 30 year fixed at pretty much the record low interest rate.

Location-location-location they say…

I have to say that today is a boring day, but it suits me fine.

I’m looking forward to building new garage doors. Full 4-quarter Douglas fir, old growth that is seasoned about 7 years, rough sawn to be old style carriage doors. They will dress up the stucco’ed detached two car garage with a hip roof. I’ll be putting on a new hip roof also I figure in the spring.

My friend Craig, the tree surgeon, is hooking me up with lumber he harvested and had resawn.

The house actually could sell for a 50% gain when we get the paint and trim done in the dining room and hallway. With the garage roof and new doors the house is getting kinda turn key and to the right buyer could be a 60% gain. The house has charm, a second complete building lot, borders on public land, and is a mighty cute house that broadcasts charm.

We are not selling… The housing market is not crazy: it is insane.

Anyways just going with the flow…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Do you think the FED is correct? Is inflation tamed that no further rate increases will happen?

400 points up on the DOW. Now that’s inflation due to the FED news. The recent stock market rally got legitimized, and now there is an inflationary “Wealth Effect.”

I don’t see rents or housing prices going down or really correcting. Also if there are to be no further increases there is perhaps a prolonged truth that rates might have to stay high for longer to really put a clamp on the economy.

IMHO the housing shortage is being disregarded and discounted. A soft landing means a lot of sideways action and stagnation.

If anything, and like the housing shortage, inflation will persist. Some would call it stagnation.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I checked out the Warmoth site for guitar necks. Seems like prices and availability have gone back to normal as if the Pandemic Spike did not happen.

Hmmmm…

Prices did come down.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

As mentioned guitar necks kinda normalized to pre pandemic levels. Inventory, stock, selection and most importantly price has returned to levels that are truely pre-pandemic. I was surprised, but this also makes me happy.

So I concede that the FED could be somewhat right, or perhaps even half right, but the difference is that guitar necks are not staples and admittedly are discretionary purchases.

Everyone needs shelter. One headline suggests that rentals have declined by 2.1%. The housing shortage remains, and this part of inflation I don’t think will go way. Shortages create inflation is a simple formula.

An interesting solicitation from Rocket Mortgage is some point system, where points are earned for bi-weekly payments. Pretty much they benefit from the advanced cash flow, but these points are applied to a new mortgage, like if I were to buy another house.

Also lots of hard-sell on refi and taking out equity. Why would I do that? Mucho dumb, but I guess some Americans that have high interest credit card debt that are living beyond their means are taking these offers. A bit predatory if you ask me.

Cal

 

[Archiver]

I'm at an age where I'm beginning to think about retirement in the distant future, especially since you and a couple of other RFFers said that deliberately setting up retirement can take a good 15-20 years, maybe more. This is the wise way to do it. Your ruminations about personal finance and independence are inspiring.

And yes, RFF is a real online home and support group.