NYC Journal

A,

Sadly only about 1/3rd of Americans actually have enough money to retire. 2/3’rds pretty much end up on a downward slide.

About a third of your money is taxes, and the rich and wealthy say, “No one ever got rich by paying taxes.” I lived in NYC, but I managed to max out my 403b to defer taxes.

It so happened that this money I’m now paying taxes on now, and I’m kinda getting killed. I could of kinda balanced things out pretty easy if I would of blended my 403b between a Roth and a Traditional. My tax status also effects my Medicare Premiums.

I don’t think any Financial Planner can really understand your personal needs and objectives, unless he or she is your best friend. Pretty much the burden is on you to have an understanding.

Also sadly many-many Americans live beyond their means. Debt is mortgaging the future. A good example is all these people who lease cars they otherwise could not afford. I for one never-ever owned a new car. I would also never lease a car.

I see many people getting caught up in consumerism and enslaving themselves with debt. Dumb-dumb-and dumb.

Believe many-many Americans avoid planning their retirement because they are forced to make decisions about their own mortality. If our population really thought about retirement and quality of life, everyone would take better care of themselves, eat better and exercise.

Our government also plays a role because healthcare is big business, and they favor supporting big business over the health of the population. Pretty much promoting ill health is government policy. The sugar and corn syrup industries are supported by government subsidies, and of course this leads to obesity and chronic/fatal diseases like high blood pressure, heart disease, Cancer and diabetes.

Pretty much you don’t need to have a medical degree or a PhD to know what is bad or evil and what will shorten your life and quality of life. Science and fact are being disregarded. Pretty much crazy and all bad.

Pretty much people are throwing their lives away…

BTW I don’t drink. I am among 30% of Asians who can’t break down alcohol. For me the high kinda sucks. When I went to my 40th year High School reunion I saw all my Italian and Irish classmates who were all big guys had shrunk. These guys were 6 footers and taller, and now me at 5’10” average height was now taller than them.

Not only were they unrecognizable, but they aged rather poorly. I did some research on why they had grown in shortness and basically alcohol, especially binge drinking, disrupts calcium uptake, and speeds up Os-T-PORE-O-sis. I was saddened that my classmates kinda never grew up or did much with their lives.

The age of 40-55 is a 15 year period where you are least likely to die. Pretty much statistics and actuary tables suggest it kinda is a waste to buy life insurance unless you need it for dependents.

Then these same tables say that the age of 55-65 is where half the people you graduated high school with will die or will be dead by the time you are 65. That’s a 50/50 chance.

At my high school reunion I could see why. My friends did not really grow up. They were still emulating behaviors of teenagers. Pretty much I was the outlier. One girl asked me if I was at the right reunion.

Also sadly I cried the next day because a close friend, Richey, had drank himself to death. There were already a group of my classmates that were dead.

It seemed evident that people avoided thinking about retirement and their mortality.

Cal
 
I’m finding it is actually hard to have a boring life. I guess because innately I’m an interesting person, and perhaps no matter what I do life gets exciting.

”Maggie” at time calls herself out as being a “Hot-Mess.” I would tend to agree, but as of late she has moderated and changed much of her behavior. The life of a Digital Influencer is just so wired. Being a writer is also fraught. Having about a million followers across platforms is both a burden and a responsibility. Being a public figure is also problematic, and I would not wish fame on anyone.

All around me in the world is mucho dysfunction. It’s pretty crazy out there. I try to withdraw into my small universe, but I get sucked in and snookered.

To build out my sanctuary, my retirement home, it takes a lot of prison work that is very physical. I also realize that it takes time, but then I have my disciplined needs of exercise, eating clean and good, and utilizing quality time for my own personal growth.

I reflect a lot here, because it breaks me out of my social isolation. Part of me is a flamboyant Alpha Male, but another part of me is a loner.

With the guitar I have really great dexterity and articulation. I’m not a speedy player, and a certain amount of smoothness is lacking. I kinda emulate Jeff Beck because I pick close to the bridge and right over the bridge pickup. Not so easy to control for many because of the dominant treble response. I know and understand why he mostly played the bridge pickups for that in your face articulation.

I also developed playing the end of a Tele neck. The tone has a rolled off high and there is a very percussive element happening. I kinda get my tone via my hands like Jeff Beck, but I use pick and fingers, Jeff Beck used only his thumb.

What is happening for me right now is that I’m playing the Circle of Fifths and Circle of Fourths to “modulate” which is another way to express change keys. It gets creative really fast because basically I use a bit of overlap to make the shifts and the transitions. Anyways this part of harmony evaded me for many decades. I never really had continuity in my life to do the necessary practice.

Actually I can now appreciate having had a disrupted life. Pretty much I’m entering a second childhood of sorts where a great part of my day involves “Play”…

Maggie has some Meet-Up at Peekskill Coffee. She is kinda setting up a local support group. I think I will take the opportunity to pull out the acoustic guitars. Today I got up at 5:00 AM and practiced on an electric guitar unplugged in the living room for nearly 3 hours.

Having so many guitars is inspirational. Each one is different, and each has its own individual voice to exploit.

The rewards and payoff I find to be grand and so fulfilling. When I did TV Broadcast Journalism I developed an announcer’s voice. My performance art and theater experience makes me wonder if I can develop my singing. I can do a passable Nate King Cole imitation.

Life is rich and rewarding, and none of this is really about dumb stuff like money. For an artist the most valuable commodity is time.

I tell Maggie, who is a procrastinator, that the best work does not happen under deadline or stress, and that rushing almost always compromises quality. To me rushing around with full schedules and being overly busy is all really just a waste of time and to me is all BS.

Cal
 
The FED announcement cemented a strong rally. In a ways the forecasted likely/possible rate cuts in 2024 is like “STIMULAS” that is inflationary. How ironic.

Pretty much Powell threw logs onto the fire and stoked the fire. Just when inflation is said to be tamed more fuel is added to the fire.

How crazy is that?

I say, “Beware of the wealth effect and the increased spending that will be inflationary.”

Meanwhile the losses in real estate speculation in China is still simmering. What will happen when the banking crisis in China eventually happens? How much of that mess will be contained? “Kaa-boom,” I say. Oh-well another destroyed economy…

In China they have deflation happening. It is suggested that they need to add some stimulas, but that is not happening. Perhaps why is all the debt and leverage that already was spent on inflating growth for decades. The overcapacity that exists today is a product of all that debt and spending. Oh-well. At this point wasted ammo.

Since the U.S. now is a net exporter of energy, that part of the CPI is a big part of the moderation of inflation. Also OPEC+ has less control over pricing and means that low oil prices also hurt Russia economically. Low oil prices not only keep the CPI low, but is a strategic tactic.

“Look out below,” I say in advance. When the shoe drops someone will get crushed.

Cal
 
It takes some time for me to process what is really going on. One fact is that the ”median” rent in Madhattan declined from $4095.00 to $4K. Somehow the 2% they claim in the article is a “funny” number.

$95.00 does not equal 2%.

I mention a lot the term “living below your means,” but what if China exploited leverage and credit to fuel decades of unsustainable growth to conflate its economy? Pretty much expanding beyond your means with loose money policy. A great example is all the speculative real estate markets.

Today I saw a headline about how $29 billion dollars of bonds were made to help keep small and local banks solvent in China. This is a record amount, but might only be the beginning to prevent runs on the banks.

Then add to this the flight of foreign capitol and businesses to exacerbate a need for mucho capitol to keep the economy alive. So my idea from the previous post might have legs: China needs lots of capitol to stabilize and keep things a float.

High interest rates around the world also means that risking money in China is not a great idea, and deflation once embedded might mean a lost decade like what happened in Japan. In Japan a real estate bubble popped, the economy collapsed, and then deflation set in.

So FED policy also hinges on the China factor: does China stay solvent and develop an internal demand for its goods by 2024?; or does China fall into a deflationary spiral? The FED response to interest rate drops kinda hinges on what will happen in China in 2024. Tick-tick-tick…

Do you hear the time bomb?

Seems like China has to bolster up all the local banks that have the greatest exposure to the real estate speculation. If the small banks give way the loses up the food chain that lead to the bigger banks could blow up into a full blown banking crisis.

I will repeat that China is Germany’s biggest trading partner. Mexico is currently the U.S.’s largest trading partner with China being the second. A collapse in China certainly will hurt Germany more, and in turn the rest of Europe. The effect in the U.S. certainly will be more tame, but still could have impact.

It has been said, “When the U.S. Sneezes, the world catches a cold,” because our economy is so big and powerful. If this is true it is likely that a collapse in China will have a huge impact on the rest of the world.

The flight of capitol and business out of China compounds the debt and leverage that was created by decades of expanding beyond their means. China needs mucho-mucho capitol, and how much bad debt can their system take? Know that any recession would be the first in decades for China.

Seems like very little wiggle room.

This reminds me of a conversation I had with Kishore, a South East Asian who is a clever PhD. I mentioned the retina scans that India used to create a National I.D. Pretty much in many ways it allowed people to be counted, aided in expanding healthcare, added to National Security; and allowed even the poorest of the poor to establish banking relationships.

But Kishore pointed out the downfalls, the biggest one was the expansion of credit. This credit kinda jumped started a consumer economy, but Kishore’s point that this debt also was oppressive in its own manner making poorer peoples poorer.

Again, “The money has to come from somewhere.”

So who will pay for the losses in China’s mix of credit crisis, bank runs, and housing bubble. Here in the U.S. the loss was socialized and added to the National Debt. Not sure China can do this.

In China it is clear they need capitol, but where will that come from? Buying Chinese bonds are kinda risky, and then again the flight of foreign business is the lack of “Rule of Law.” Do you think that people that lost money on the housing speculation will buy bonds that will prop up the banks that sponsored and fostered all the borrowing?

I just don’t see where the required bond buyers will come from.

Oh-well…

Cal
 
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Low energy prices helped lower the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Right after the FED announcement not only did the markets jump upward dramatically, but also oil futures went into a state called “contango” meaning oil futures prices increased over the spot price. Smart money knows to expect increased oil demand and are locking in prices using futures contracts.

Pretty much expect the low/cheap energy prices we enjoy now to diminish. Perhaps inflation has resumed already and has been jump started. Higher energy prices certainly are inflationary.

Oil prices are set in Dollars, and since the U.S. is a net exporter of oil this means and leads to Dollar strength. A strong Dollar is bad for China, especially since China is suffering deflation, needs to stimulate its economy before a deflationary spiral sets in, and pretty much has to import lots of oil. China needs foreign capital, but expensive oil paid in dollars is a big drag/drain on their economy.

Know that this Dollar denominated oil can be bypassed because Russian oil can be sent to China to bypass world markets. By agreement oil would be sold in Chinese currency. Would you want to load up on a currency that likely will depreciate greatly due to housing speculation and future bank defaults?

Hmmmm… An interesting game of Chess…

China’s economy is bleeding and dying from a thousand cuts, mostly self inflicted wounds. The Chinese Credit Crunch has yet to happen. Hell to pay, but how far will the pain extend. If it starts with smaller local banks that part can be contained, but if it goes and extends to the bigger banks…

Tick-tick-tick…

2024 will be a challenge for China, but also for us. Don’t forget the excess capacity in the commercial real estate here in the U.S. That is also a lot of money and debt that has to get rolled over. Perhaps this tempered or handcuffed further rate hikes needed to really clamp down the economy and really stop inflation.

Higher interest rates make rolling over the commercial real estate loans ever more difficult. That shoe has not dropped yet, and like in China will take years to work out. Can we afford to bail out banks again? When will defaults happen? How far up the banking food chain will the pain go. Will or can the debt be “socialized” again To avoid a collapse?

Perhaps the FED decision/announcement was to be ready for the mine field that lays ahead rather than its dual mandate of controlling employment and limiting inflation.

Inflation I say will persist, and did not really go away. In a ways the bad debt already is being “socialized.” The money has to come from somewhere and it is being collected already via inflation.

Certainly the “Wealth-Effect” will promote and stimulate the economy. The spending binge will continue, and I expect American consumers will pile on more debt to maintain their standard of living, basically living beyond their means.

Cal
 
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Calzone said:
Seems like China has to bolster up all the local banks that have the greatest exposure to the real estate speculation. If the small banks give way the loses up the food chain that lead to the bigger banks could blow up into a full blown banking crisis.

I will repeat that China is Germany’s biggest trading partner. Mexico is currently the U.S.’s largest trading partner with China being the second. A collapse in China certainly will hurt Germany more, and in turn the rest of Europe. The effect in the U.S. certainly will be more tame, but still could have impact.

It has been said, “When the U.S. Sneezes, the world catches a cold,” because our economy is so big and powerful. If this is true it is likely that a collapse in China will have a huge impact on the rest of the world.

The flight of capitol and business out of China compounds the debt and leverage that was created by decades of expanding beyond their means. China needs mucho-mucho capitol, and how much bad debt can their system take? Know that any recession would be the first in decades for China.
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I have sometimes wondered about the remarkable economic growth of China, and how it has been implemented and sustained. Time to do some research.
Calzone said:
This reminds me of a conversation I had with Kishore, a South East Asian who is a clever PhD. I mentioned the retina scans that India used to create a National I.D. Pretty much in many ways it allowed people to be counted, aided in expanding healthcare, added to National Security; and allowed even the poorest of the poor to establish banking relationships.

But Kishore pointed out the downfalls, the biggest one was the expansion of credit. This credit kinda jumped started a consumer economy, but Kishore’s point that this debt also was oppressive in its own manner making poorer peoples poorer.
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As an aside: retinal scan ID won't be accepted in most Western countries. A prominent politician a few decades ago proposed a national ID card that was linked to every government service, and it cost him the election for Prime Minister. The government later introduced a form on national ID by stealth in the form of a Tax File Number, which is required whenever one files taxes, starts a job, opens a bank account, etc. If retinal scan ID was proposed in Australia there would be a huge uproar.
 
In China the use and abuse of credit, debt and leverage allowed unsustainable growth. ”The money has to come from somewhere.”

The use of banking and finance can be used by business and individuals to kinda live beyond their means readily and easily.

This is happening in India right now because even poor people now can have bank accounts and acess to banking and eventually credit. Pretty much debt is fueling a major expansion in the Indian economy.

Abuse of lending created 2007-2008 and the housing crisis. Defaults and the tax payer bailout cost an estimated 70 Billion dollars. This loss was added to our National Deficit and was “Socialized.”

One report estimates the amount of Commercial Real Estate that has to be refinanced/rolled over to be 1.5 Trillion dollars in the U.S. Pretty much banks could end up with the keys as they say as owners walk away. Not only is this debt and possible losses larger than 2007-2008, it will take a really long time to play out.

I had a friend who was a developer named Gary. He kinda was a big player, and he had built a commercial office building that was in Garden City that was big enough that it was visible from the Meadowbrook Parkway.

Back then the building cost 34-35 million to build, but the economy tanked, and Gary figured the building was only worth 28 million even though it was still new, so he went to the bank demanding they renegotiate the loan. The response from the bank is they were thankful that Gary approached them, because they did not want the keys. They negotiated a settlement down to 28 million.

It was perhaps two years later that Gary in fact sold the building for $32 milliion, where he made a cool $4 million.

So now play this out with 1.5 Trillion dollars worth of commercial real estate that is vacant and in a great oversupply.

Who will pay for these losses? How many banks will go Ka-boom? Where will the money come from to cover these losses? Taxpayer again? When will the living on debt be too much?

In China the amount of bad loans is estimated to be $4 Trillion dollars. Many of the banks are small and local that hold mortgages. In China it is not only a real estate glut, but also a residential housing crisis built on speculation compounded by bad policy.

In China homes were pre-sold, and in some cases homes will not be built until 4-6 years have elapsed. How crazy is that?

Then in China the banking system is not so transparent, so nobody really knows the extent of the debt problems. In the west “Shadow Banking” is a term to describe the lack of transparency.

Credit and finance is a double edged sword. When used in a good way it allows for expansion because artificially one can live beyond their means. Used in a bad way it enslaves and mortgages the future.

In 2000 I was pretty mad about how Bush got elected via a Supreme Court decision. Then fear factor was manipulated to earn a second term.

It was in 2003, post Election Day after November, I walked into a brand new mall in Columbus Circle, in Madhattan, that had a Tourneou watch shop.

I walked in and asked if they had a stainless steel Rolex Submariner, a cheap Rolex that is difficult to source because quantities are very-very limited and sell out fast.

They had a “No-Date” version that I tried on. I could feel a change, as if I had suddenly a super power and suddenly became a “Bankster.”

I inquired about the price: $3200.00; but then the young salesman asked me if I wanted to take advantage of a special “Promotional-Deal” of Zero APR for 24 months with a monthly payment just under $150.00. Pretty much something that normally was out of reach I held in my hand.

”I’ll take it,” I said, knowing I was getting the deal of a lifetime.

When my salesperson returned he was accompanied by the manager, who explained to me that the promotional offer did not apply to my Rolex, and that I could use the promotional offer on any other watch. The look of disappointment on my face was so great that the manager politely said, “If you want the Rolex we will allow the use of the promo.”

The manager made a mistake, thought I would be a gentleman, wrongly thought I would politely just buy another watch by a different brand, but he was wrong, I am no gentleman, and pretty much with a Rolex on my wrist was now officially a full blown mucho evil “Bankster.”

”I’ll take it,” I said. Pretty much I was not the gentleman, and acted more like an aggressive street thug of a real Bankster making a smart decision to take advantage of an opportunity. In a ways I mugged the store manager for the watch, because he really did not want to sell it to me. LOL.

Wearing and owning that Rolex made me officially a Bankster. I learned that I could be ruthless and take advantage of people. Because Bush for his second term got the popular vote, I knew that my old thoughts of “I am my brother’s keeper” were obsolete, and I knew bad things would happen, and I would have to just protect myself.

Katrina was a shameful neglect of government. People were left to die of exposure. Then there was the invasion of Iraq that destabilized the Mid East and allowed Iran to become a bully and a problem.

Meanwhile I was getting all these zero APR offers, and pretty much I wrote one of those “convenience checks” out to Scottrade and opened a margin account where I swing traded Biotech and oil/energy stocks using three-to-one margin. I traded against big hedge funds that would sell their winners to prevent locking in losses and pretty much it was oil stocks and energy I traded against the hedge funds.

Half the volume on the New York stock exchange was due to hedge funds buying and selling. It was really exciting when hedge fund stops got hit triggering other stops in other hedge funds, and predictably buying energy stocks cheap and then locking in huge big profits say once a week or every ten days.

Kaa–Ching, Kaa-Ching, Kaa-Ching…

Then in 2007 I was watching my screen at work and oil hit $135.00 a barrel. I hit sell closing every position and went to 100% cash. I even went to close my margin account. A few hours later that afternoon oil peaked at $147.00 a barrel and then collapsed.

If I had been on the other side of that trade I would of gone bust and wiped-out, but instead I was sitting on a pile of cash.

Then the Credit Crisis happened and everyone who was leveraged out or had too much debt was selling heirlooms and their treasures for little or no money. I spent my money on hard assets. That is how I discovered Leica. I bought a 35 Cron version 4 made in Germany, and a 75 Lux version 2 also made in Germany for little money. Had them for about a year before buying a Wetzlar early Leica M6.

Before this I only shot a Nikon F3P.

In my case I profited and expanded my income though my clever use of finance. The only difference between my use of leverage (basically using borrowed money to increase and multiply profits) was a zero. Hedge Funds enjoyed 30-1 leverage ratios, while I was limited to 3-1.

Understand that if my portfolio valve dipped below a set amount that pretty much “forced selling” would happen that could locked in losses. Also alternately the bank could give a margin call demanding funds to cover loses to maintain a threshold of value in the account. In other words risk was as well as gains are multiplied in a margin account.

The points I’m making here is that finance and debt is both good and evil, or can be. Also things can blow up. Seems very apparent to me that the biggest minefield in the world likely is not in the Ukraine: it is in China. Here in the U.S. we also likely have a minefield that is larger than the one in the Ukraine.

If you look at what I did between 2003 and 2007, I walked in a dangerous minefield where my legs could get blown off at any time. I knew and was aware of the dangers. Too much debt certainly is a killer.

I was also wise to exploit cheap or “free” money. Pretty much like record low mortgage rates it was a one in a lifetime event.

There is an expression that 10% of the fisherman catch 90% of the fish. I use to be an avid fisherman and was in that 10%. There is a parallel expression on Wall Street where they say 10% of traders make 90% of the profit, but know and understand that really the stock market can be looked upon as a “Zero-Sum-Game.”

Again, “The money has to come from somewhere.” Who will pay for these mistakes?

Gaming the economy is really a complex game. I think Powell and the FED are hedging themselves for future surprises. Minefields lay ahead…

Kaa-boom; and Kaa-boom; not Kaa-Ching.

Again, “Deflation=Oversupply.” Understand that with all the debt held by U.S. consumers, the governments around the world, and all the bad debt like car loans in the U.S. kinda point to either deflation, a collapse, of a very-very long period of stagnation with moderate inflation to moderate the burden of debt load.

Understand that deflation makes it harder to pay off debt. This is the situation in China. Lots of debt and deflation, meaning oversupply. If China can’t get beyond the deflationary curve and get their economy growing again, the deflation will likely turn into a prolonged deflationary spiral. Could take a decade or more to evolve out of a deflationary spiral,it might be the end for China… Kaa-boom.

We follow in the same footsteps: too much debt. You can’t live on credit forever.

Cal
 
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BTW the $3200.00 dollar Rolex last time I checked on EBAY was valued at $5700.00 used with box and papers, but that was 5-7 years ago.

My “cheap Rolex” now is collectible because it has the most simple dial. I’m pretty sure it is worth more than double what I paid in 2003.

”Follow the money, and especially the smart money,” is good advice. Then you can figure out that the FED moves are limited, and pretty much deflation and prolonged inflation is one way to manage the debt loads. Prolonged inflation now I think is FED policy.

Think about it and how that effects you.

Cal
 
Christmas shopping…

I want to buy a bike helmet for the now 16 month old grandson. Pretty much the last item.

I worked on two guitars yesterday. Exchanged pickups in one, and switched necks on two. I have to plug in and test the new pickups that have a bit more output. These pickups I had on hand. I am pleased with the results so far.

Used some of the ingredients to make a few small lasagna’s. I made some of my sausage rolls out of extra lasagna noodles with a light layer of sauce and cheese. Mighty great. The Brevall toaster oven has a convection oven setting that works very well in melting cheese and baking the already cooked ingredients. I think I’ll have another.

Full disclosure: I have a student loan that will be fully paid off I figure in 4 more years when I’m 70. Because I worked in a hospital it should have been forgiven because of public service, but because I refi’ed the loan and locked in an interest rate of 2.185% I’m cool with that. I borrowed mucho money and refied in 2007 at record low rates. Mighty smart.

This money was for my MFA, but my hospital also paid me tuition reimbursement, so like a side hustle I got paid to go to grad school. I had to pay taxes on the tuition reimbursement as income. Oh-well.

Our mortgage rate is well below 3% and near the record low. Fixed rate of course on a 30 year.

In January the Audi will get its last payment.

If I’m right and inflation will persist by design I have to figure a way to save and invest to beat inflation. Certainly anyone with debt will have problems maintaining their standard of living. My debt load is manageable and kinda minimal. The time now requires saving as much as possible, and investing to keep ahead of inflation. I’m in a great position to do that.

Most of my big expenses on the house have been performed and paid for. I’m kinda set already for fixed income that lays ahead.

Cal
 
Calzone said:
BTW the $3200.00 dollar Rolex last time I checked on EBAY was valued at $5700.00 used with box and papers, but that was 5-7 years ago.

My “cheap Rolex” now is collectible because it has the most simple dial. I’m pretty sure it is worth more than double what I paid in 2003.

”Follow the money, and especially the smart money,” is good advice. Then you can figure out that the FED moves are limited, and pretty much deflation and prolonged inflation is one way to manage the debt loads. Prolonged inflation now I think is FED policy.

Think about it and how that effects you.

Cal
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Rolexes from the early 2000s now sell for 2-4 times their retail price today. Most people can't buy a Rolex from an AD without a long wait, I know at least one high profile athlete who couldn't buy the Rolex they wanted at an AD this year. The Rolex and luxury watch market in general is bananas. Not in my budget now, which is fine, because I am now into relatively inexpensive G Shocks.
 
Wow. Four times is crazy money.

I ended up paying off the Rolex early with my tax return. The idea was to exploit the zero APR for 24 months to buy “Maggie” a luxury watch. I bought her a Cartier.

When that was paid off I bought a Panerai 8-Day GMT, then another second Cartier for Maggie.

The Panerai was the same watch that Clinton wore as President. I use to say if it is good enough for President Clinton its good enough for me. LOL.

Then Maggie said it is the other way around, meaning directly that I’m the better man.

My dad was an illiterate illegal immigrant, but my mother was an educated woman from Hong Kong. Because of her looks and education she likely came from an influential family, and I like to think that I have real Bankster blood in me from my mother’s side. My dad was a brute, and that also is part of me.

I’m an interesting hybrid: beauty; and the thug/criminal.

Cal
 
Seems like credit card balances are reported up. This suggests that households are exploiting credit to maintain their standard of living. Late payments are also reported to have increased.

Also auto loans are increasing in not only late payments, but also defaults.

Living on debt is a death spiral…

Tick-tick-tick…

Cal
 
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2-3 inches of rain begins tonight and into Monday. Expected 60 MPH winds, but so far a rather mild December.

It does seem like global warming and climate change has advanced and accelerated. Pretty much the lower Hudson Valley soon will have temperatures of further south like perhaps Virginia, and that snow accumulations might be a rare occurrence.

Our 1912 home only has insulation in the walls where we remodeled: The two bathrooms; the kitchen; and the dining room.

The addition of a 2-zone mini-split added basically central AC and a backup heating system.

It seems the housing shortage remains deep in the NYC metro area, so I’m not so concerned so much with moderating housing prices nationally. A lot of the new home construction is in the south, but I don’t think people are not considering the change in climate and how water will become a precious commodity over time.

”Maggie” is a road block for using any part of the back-backyard for establishing a micro-farm. I think it would be a wise idea, and eventually will add to our quality of life. I’m cool with doing the work and maintenance. If cultivated fully we have a 40x100, a complete separate buildable building lot that has street access.

Pretty much we have the capability of building another house that would be built on a level bluff overlooking a valley with a marsh and brook; and in the distance forest, a hillside, and green space that is public land that forever would remain undeveloped. A home built deep into a dead end right at the very edge of the city of 25K.

The southern end of Peekskill fringes on the 1500 acre Blue Mountain Preserve that comprises of two small mountains. This preserve is set inland from the Hudson River, but at the northern end of Peekskill the mountains emerge close to the river which forms a wide and shallow bay that marks the entrance to the Hudson Highlands.

Right across the river is the wilderness of Bear Mountain State Park that butts against Harriman State Park.

From my reading I learned that not only is Adirondack State Park the largest park in the lower 48 states, that pretty much global warming there will not be so dramatic as elsewhere. It seems the predictions of global warming will be bigger temperature swings in the U.S than what is predicted as the global average.

My spin on this is that places that are already hot will experience not a moderate temperature rise, but pretty much a step more towards becoming a desert. Water will be a major problem…

Know that Canada has the most fresh water than any country in the world. Pretty much they are the Saudi Arabia of water. Heat waves and forest fires are an indication that the Pacific Northwest is no longer a rain forest and is drying up. Vancouver has had deadly heat waves.

NYC is a major “heat-Island” where deadly temperatures threatening life, and taxing infrastructure will be a nightmare.

Just a few years ago in the fall I would experience a ground fog more or less on a daily basis, and frequent light rain, but now the rain is less frequent, and when it does rain it can be 2-3 inches at a time or 2-4 inches is now not uncommon. Luckily I have a dry basement so far, but some of my neighbors use and need sump pumps.

West Point just north of Peekskill on the Hudson River experienced once in a century flooding when 6 inches of sustained rain caused flooding. The narrowing of the Hudson made the record setting rain deadly. In Peekskill the geography allowed for adiquit drainage.

They now say that the term 100 year event is now a misnomer, and that the fact is that these storms of freak weather have increased four-fold and now the reality is that these events now have a probability of every 25 years.

We are 75-80 feet above sea level, but water percolates underground from Blue Mountain finding its way down to the Hudson. When we lived in NYC we pretty much lived in flood zones marked out by FEMA. The only exception was when we lived in East Harlem at the top of the hill on Lexington Avenue on 101st Street, but just a block away was the flood zone.

In a category 5 storm the northern end of Central Park would be underwater…

Anyways when you retire consider climate change, and use science to speculate on wise choices. Some of Maggie’s family moved down south, but I stayed quiet and minded my own business. For the long-long term I think we made a durable choice that has legs.

I’m not saying I would want to build a house on the second building lot, but it is nice that I have an option. I also don’t want to sell that building lot either, but you never know… I don’t have the capitol right now, but it could present itself if we needed or required a family compound for the “Creature” (Maggie’s) daughter) and the two grand kids.

You never know…

Already the lower Hudson Valley has experience this year a month’s growth in our growing season. We had almost no snow accumulation, followed by a mild and early spring, and then a very late fall. Now so far we have had a very mild December.

A news report stated that this year’s growing season is among the top 5 ever recorded. Hmmm.

The Baby-Victorian is right at the fringe of climate Zones 6 and 7. Just a few blocks away the building inspector said that the Zone 6 gets fully established. There was a debate of using a vapor barrier with the remodeling performed because in Zone 7 no vapor barrier is required.

Pretty easy to predict that the expected temperature rise will be 6 degrees “F” through the science involved, and that translates readily into a change of climate zone into the realm of Zone 8. From my studies there is no need to move further south for milder winters: milder winters is approaching further north. If the science is correct global warming in the U.S. will be rather dramatic is the point.

Did you know that the Great Lakes are drying up. In Chicago pretty much the drop in water levels means rivers have reversed direction and has created a problem with sewage backups and sewer discharges heading upriver. Meanwhile Adirondack State Park, the source of the Hudson River, pretty much is predicted to remain more or less the same and is more or less a stable climate.

Understand that the global average underplays the dramatic changes underway.

Separately the Mississippi River is running low…

In another separate report they say that Toronto within a decade will have the sub-tropic climate of NYC. That report is about three years old by my account. The lake effect snowfall in Buffallo nearby is increasing because the lake is not getting covered in ice to prevent the cold polar air from loading with moisture.

The predicted future water shortages made me wonder about our food chain and where in our country water will be available. I think mechanized farming the way it exists now might be doomed. I see small and local as perhaps the only logical solution.

The only place I recognize having perhaps a somewhat stable water supply in the U.S. is maybe the northeast. Present mechanized farms might become deserts eventually. You can expect food prices to get mucho crazy.

I can see going back to the Mayan method of using the “three sisters:” corn; a legume; and squash.

Pretty much you can’t live without water, and water certainly will become a more and more precious commodity.

Don’t tell anyone, but I could easily pump water from Dickey Brook before it feeds into the brackish Hudson River. Pretty much all I need is a sump pump and an extension cord.

I live pretty close to the river. This large body of water helps moderate climate. I can hear the diesel trains on the Metro North Hudson Line.

I have engineered and designed my “bunker” well. I kinda have a strategic location and some flexible options.

Also know that the development and urban planning includes an attempt to build an industrial corridor from NYC to Albany. Pretty much an attempt to recreate another Silicon Valley. Our location is perhaps just south and not far from the midpoint between NYC and Albany. Location-location-location they say…

Cal
 
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Lately I have been writing less “fluff,” and pretty much I have been practicing journalism. Know at the end of the Cold War I was laid off from Grumman and was categorized as a “Displaced Worker.” I enjoyed a severance package, and I volunteered to be laid off because there was rumor that the severant’s pay was going to be discontinued.

My idea was to go to grad school to find a new career. That is how I became a dude with a BA in Visual Arts that led to a MA in TV Broadcast Journalism and Screenwriting. This kinda lead to my further development as a drama queen and NYC performance artist, and becoming a creature of the theater. Kinda crazy, but also kinda makes sense.

Take note of my writing style that pretty much are like bullet points and declarative sentences. I write kinda like a TV announcer.

Anyways you see how I can talk about the weather and kinda go crazy into a deep rant of sorts based on fact. I am a man of science who worked as a tech dude building out prototypes for military purposes and for physics projects. Basically I was deeply embedded in research and had access to mucho smart people and unlimited infrastructue of a Fortune 500 Aerospace company and two National Labs.

Then I got my slacker job that was boring and routine for 22 years. You can understand how boredom and my skill set of connecting the dots, speculating, and seeing pattern recognition allowed me to be a pretty great swing trader. My journalism skills allowed me to process lots of information and understand complexity.

Who would think that a graduate degree in journalism could be better than a MBA in finance?

Why would the problem solving of an artist be so valuable to the fourth largest military contractor in the U.S.?

Pretty much I was self taught. Snarky Joe, who almost always is right, told me that a guy like me can do just about anything well.

Anyways here I have pretty much a way to fully express myself, I try to help and guide others through the fraught process of retirement that involves the process of recreating oneself and mucho complexity. Perhaps this “work” can be looked upon as a “Public Service,” but also know that somehow I get more out of this sharing than I give. That’s just a fact.

Free expression is a valuable and precious commodity in today’s world. It seems like writing is becoming more and more important.

Cal
 
DRAMA: imagine Washington DC weather in NYC, and a ten degree rise in low winter temperatures. Perhaps a long growing season of North Carolina in Peekskill.

Hmmm…

Seems to be happening. No snow accumulations other than a dusting in Peekskill last winter…

Will you be in a safe place a decade from now?

BTW I’m a pretty smart guy, but then again I could be wrong. Take note of some of my OCD tendencies.

Cal
 
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Calzone said:
China’s economy is bleeding and dying from a thousand cuts, mostly self inflicted wounds. The Chinese Credit Crunch has yet to happen. Hell to pay, but how far will the pain extend. If it starts with smaller local banks that part can be contained, but if it goes and extends to the bigger banks…
Click to expand...
Coming soon:

markets.businessinsider.com

China's banking system is in free fall and the country's real estate losses could hit $4 trillion, veteran investor says

China's banks will lose more than what US banks lost during the 2008 crisis, Hayman Capital CIO Kyle Bass said.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com
 
Austin,

Thanks for the link.

In reading this report a second time I noticed that earlier I reported that the 2007-2008 housing crisis cost 70 Billion, but in fact I was off by a zero and the article I quoted, the one you linked, in fact reported 700 Billion.

Kaa-boom…

Certainly another destroyed economy… Self inflicted wounds…

Oh-well.

BTW Ray Dallio The founder and Ex-CEO of the world’s largest hedge fund, was a big promoter of China’s growth. This is an example of how some really smart people can be wrong and nearsighted. For years I disagreed with some of his projections. I still think he and his team is mucho smart, but some of the press about the culture at Bridgewater Associates is mucho toxic and disgusting.

Not sure of their current exposure to loses in China or if they are sitting on loses. Hedge funds are kinda funny when they have made bad decisions that lead to losses…

Could there be an explosion? Could this spill over? When will the minefield start exploding? Debt bombs are a killer…

Anything is possible with Banksters. I know… I was one of them that gamed the markets for profits. I know mucho evil.

BTW though Data Mining somehow I got on Ray Dalio’s mailing list. I got advance writings of his book on the Changing World Order where he projected that China would overtake the U.S. economy.

In my mind I saw at least a few major holes in his thinking: one was the one child per family policy that would cause a future population implosion. Economics 101 is that no economy can grow without an increasing population or an aging population. Japan has an aging population, negative population growth, and a stagnant deflationary economy.

Economic history indicates a real estate boom lead to over capacity (bubble) and a debt crisis and then a crash. Sound familiar? I’m not making this up.

The population in the U.S., in Europe, and in China are all aging, and pretty much there is no population growth.

Understand that the baby-boomers created jobs, prosperity, and a growing economy because of demographics. How did a very smart man overlook this? The one child per family also skewed male birth rates over females in China to make it so there are not enough females to procreate. Pretty much a female shortage evolved due to infantcide, abortion, and a culture that favors boys over girls. Mucho-mucho dumb.

Then there is the environmental destruction and life threatening pollution.

With any empire what is required is the best weapons to have the best military. Today’s weapons rely on data processing and rapid communications. Pretty much dominance in electronics, but China does not have access to a lot of that tech. Ironically much of that infrastructure and tech is in Taiwan.

Pretty much the U.S. is obligated to keep the technology and capabilities away from China. Even if that means destroying all that capability and infrastructure. Oh-well… I know not nice, but pretty much a forced move.

China use to feed itself, but now with all the urbanization and even creation of “Ghost Cities” rural farming now is greatly diminished. Food has to be imported, and know that food can be a weapon.

Anyways I can dig in, but you guys already know I can be OCD.

I can’t see how China will dodge the bullet, but then again I don’t see how the estimated 1.5 Trillion will play out in the U.S. Commercial Real Estate sector either. $1.5 Trillion is more than twice the reported loses of the 2007-2008 housing crisis.

History has shown and indicated what can happen. All we need to do is look at Japan in the 90’s, the boom, the bust, the banking crisis, the deflationary spiral…

“Boom-boom,” I say. The money has to come from somewhere, and anyone with a big debt load will be in big-time trouble.

Deflation makes it hard to pay back debt. Just a fact… Oh-well. That is the future. Perhaps I’m not kidding about stagnation.

Cal
 
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