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A .0033uf bleed cap dialed in a nice preset that is just a tad brighter than when the tone knob is turned down a quarter. Not a bad thing.

Hitting the heating pad to help heal. Things are progressing…

Saw a video of Nora Jones performing “The Long Way Home” where her singing is a bit off key. Oh-well.

The lesson here is that voice lesson that basically teaches you as a performer to frame the performance as a “gift” so there is no pretense to cause self consciousness or anxiety.

We tend to worry too much, we expect or want approval, but the best way to handle all these expectations is think of a performance as a gift.

Anyways, this is a good way to frame things to move forward. I have suffered enough with anxiety.

BTW Nora Jones is great. I’m a big fan. Don’t tell “Maggie” but I love her.

Anyways I `know it takes a lot of courage to put yourself out there.

Cal
 
Gold is working itself up there again.

The Chinese are trying to stimulate their dead economy. Some say they will announce 2 trillion yuan worth of stimulas.

U.S. inflation rate is 2.4%, a little higher than expected. Hmmm…

I am pleased with my guitars and amps. Todays tweaking moved forward a lot. I cleaned up and moved a music stand from the basement into my music room. Added a book on major and minor scales to work through. Found the metronome my friend Tim gifted me. I’ll start practicing with it.

Now with the heating season started I have to start humidifying my acoustic guitars.

I’m wearing these snug long rock climbing pants I bought on close out in New Paltz. They are well tailored and also allow me to have freedom of movement. Very flattering. They are annoying skinny legged that only some people can wear without looking silly.

Off to guitar land…

Cal
 
MFM,

Thanks for mentioning this. The 12 gauge is needed because the 100 feet will make the extension cord have a voltage drop. Basically the extension cord acts like a resistor, and power is lost.

Somewhere in my basement is perhaps maybe a 50 footer that might be a 10 gauge that I made at Grumman. The problem is it is buried somewhere and at this time is lost in the basement.

Cal
 
The right hip is better. Discomfort returned after about 5 hours of sleep. I’m on the heating pad currently.

The discomfort feels like a kink…

It will take a few weeks to heal. Physical therapy will speed up the recovery. I kinda know I sit too much.

Cal
 
Phil,

Only minor discomfort last night. I use Advil as an anti-inflammatory, and I was directed to use Advil for a few weeks, but already the inflammation has receded strongly.

I still rely on a heating pad to loosen up the joint and to increase blood flow for healing.

Sitting too much causes a tight IT band, and pretty much weak hip muscles can even cause knee pain. Sitting too much is and becomes a real health hazard as we age.

Certainly biking can’t hurt, and can help. Physical therapy is to loosen a tight IT band which runs the side length of your thigh. This tightness is often due to weak muscles elsewhere.

I also don’t want to injure myself again, so I will have to learn to strengthen my muscles. Evidently running and hills are high impact that contributed o my injury. In the future I need to stay low impact, and that includes walking, biking, rowing, and the elliptical.

BTW I am thankful biking is on the list.

Cal
 
I have a new friend in California, the owner of Vintage 47 amps. Pretty much already have a discount coming my way for when I will order a Vintage 47 VA-185 which is a kinda modern recreation of a very early Gibson amp that was used by Django Rhinehart and Charlie Christian. Pretty much this was the sound when swing Jazz and Jump Blues first evolved.

Only 18 watts, but it has the vibe and sound of a very touch sensitive amp that is mucho low gain.

I use heavy gauge strings, 12’s, which some players would label as cables. Big strings generate a bigger input signal, despite using low output pickups. Big strings have more sustain and a bigger sound with more thickness mostly in the low end and mids.

Pretty much high gain amps don’t suit me well, and know I kinda play an electric guitar with a heavy hand that is not so different than playing an acoustic guitar for volume without a mike or amplification. High gain amps for me generate excessive treble.

Because of great proper technic I do not suffer tendinitis, inflammation in my hands, even thought I can practice for hours. Some of this is genetic I was told by my friend Tim, but even so you need good proper technic.

So pretty much I’m already an insider at this small boutique amp maker, and I kinda get great advice and insights that are moving me forward. I’m also providing Steve some valuable feedback. The early cash discount is awesome.

I mentioned to Steve my soldering of those critical output connections.

My friend Cris says he might have “Red” completed in December, and I kinda will order a VA-185 amp in mid December to start the year off right. Pretty much this is the ideal amp for matching the Charlie Christian pickup that will be upgraded into Red the guitar. It takes 3-4 weeks for am amp to be built and delivered…

This amp plays right at the verge of distortion, breakup and rollover. Charlie Christian extensively used downstrokes, this is something I somehow developed independently and learned after the fact. Somehow I’m on that path, and now I’m actively pursuing it. Things are speeding up.

Cal
 
National debt is 35.3 trillion dollars, and current interest payments on that debt is 3 billion dollars a day.

2 years ago when interest rates were lower the daily interest rate was only 2 billion dollars a day.

U.S. GDP in 2022 was almost 26 trillion dollars. Clearly we are living beyond our means.

Cal
 
Peekskill is now in a 7a hardiness zone of zero to 5 degrees up from 6b hardiness zone of minus 5 degrees to zero.

Pretty much a climate shift that effects the growing season that is pretty significant. The change in the hardiness zone happened in 2023.

Know and understand that even though Peekskill is 40 miles north of NYC and inland it still gets effected by the Gulfstream in a significant way. To be fair though Peekskill use to be on the fringe of the effects of the Gulfstream, that might no longer be the case.

My guess is the warmer oceans might have a deeper effect inland today.

In the bigger picture/map Zone 6 extends south to the Chesapeake Bay Area pretty far south, and pretty much Peekskill is pretty far north.

Climate change seems to be advancing and accelerating. I am surprised and a bit shocked by the change in hardiness zone.

Cal
 
Because of sitting playing guitar for a few hours before bed I’m now awake using the heating pad to comfort my right hip.

Oh-well. Been about an hour now so back to bed.

I am doing a lot of transposing of scales, chord scales, well pretty much doing the full immersion required, but this is a lot to do and pretty much requires mucho concentration to move forward.

Also I see a lot of muscle memory and impulse happening, meaning that impulse is without thinking. Pretty much some automatic thing is happening that is kinda like training and conditioning a reflex.

Not so much different than an orgasm where you don’t really have control anymore. A different kind of pleasure to feed upon.

Time kinda gets lost/compressed, and before you realize it hours have past.

Pretty much not so different than being in a trace. I come out of a trance of sorts to realize I should go to bed, but I’m not really tired.

In a way playing guitar, even not plugged in, is like a form of deep meditation. Some form of transformation is happening.

In history, Louis Armstrong, the son of a prostitute, decided he would dedicate 2 years of his life to make the trumpet the focus of his life, to see if he had the talent to become great. Somehow I’m on a similar journey of discovery. The moment is ripe, but will t be fruitful?

Cal
 
China is attempting to re-inflate their bubble with much stimulus. History lessons suggest too little too late and deflation has settled in and already has taken hold.

Don’t forget China and Russia have strengthened economic ties, and both countries have fostered being isolated by the rest of the world. Pretty much they sleep in the same bed.

Russia needs to export oil to pay for the war in the Ukraine. The number of 40% of their economy is paying for either the war or defense. This is a funny number to me that is hard to believe, but this was what has been reported. Earlier this was reported as 30%, and even that number is crazy.

Inflation in Russia is double digit, there is a brain drain, and also a worker shortage. It is suggested that Russia’s economy will collapse sometime in 2025.

Meanwhile because the U.S. has somewhat flooded the market with oil and natural gas and built up stockpiles Saudi Arabia has decided to also flood the market with oil to gain back market share. OPEC and OPEC+ has been undercut, and there are a few members of OPEC that violated and exceeded agreed upon production quotas. One of those countries is Iran.

This is a very big problem for Russia. Saudi Arabia can extract oil cheaply, and to compound that Russian oil is more costly to extract.

A way to frame a possible scenario next year is a replay of what happened in WWII: The Battle Of The Bulge. Pretty much Nazi Germany needed to secure fuel as a lifeline to keep the war going.

Remember how in other posts I outlined how wars are rooted into economics. A slightly different Battle Of The Bulge is evidently underway.

As far as further collateral damage, I don’t think China will escape consequences. There is a lot of ill-will seeded, and the deflation/overcapacity I don’t see going away.

Understand that U.S. oil production too is more costly than Saudi Oil. The old cutoff of spot price use to be around $70.00 a barral. In Canada oil prices had to be around $80.00 a barrel or Tar Sand extracted oil to be Economicly feasible.

In the past the Saudi’s have effectively utilized price wars to dive down prices so that other suppliers of oil loose market share. Wells get shut down and get capped. Business’s go belly up, and pretty much there are cycles of boom and bust. Currently we are booming in the U.S.

The Saudi’s don’t really care about Russia, and the goal in this price war is to get oil prices to gain back market share and disrupt the oil supply and limit the current glut. Pretty much this is targeting U.S. energy production, and Russia is just collateral damage.

The aforementioned economically feasible prices today are likely changed, but I presented the old thresholds to point out that every country is different, but know that Saudi Arabia has a very low cost of production.

In the past the Saudi’s did their price war thing, and wells were capped here in the U.S. Some bankruptcy happened. Know that the costs of shutting down and starting up are costly. Energy here in the U.S. is boom or bust. Also stoping and starting energy production is not like flipping a switch, there are long lead times and delays.

Then consider how energy prices are low today here in the U.S. This helps lower inflation, but what happens when our oil exports no longer help offset our deficits and pretty much energy production slows down and layoffs happen. Energy today is a big/huge part of our economy.

They say 4 out of 5 recessions are caused by energy prices. I hope I outlined a possible probability and the somewhat obvious effects of the next boom to bust cycle that is underway. Pretty much a game changer is underway.

Consider and know that higher energy prices and a economic slowdown here in the U.S. will be inflationary, and inflation still has a toehold. Stimulus during an economic slowdown would also be inflationary. The FED does not have room to move or any good choice.

I would say the debt levels not only in the U.S. but also around the world suggests either a rather protracted recession or even worse stagflation. Know and understand there was a big debt load prior to the last episode of stagflation that started in the 70’s and ended around 1982. There was double digit inflation, double digit unemployment and U.S. bonds had yields of 15% because interest rates had to be raised to cause a recession to reset the economy.

IMHO the failed businesses that were rescued and bailed out inn the past by loans, stimulus and some extreme measures might become vulnerable again. The ammo the FED once had has been expended, and I say no life preserver at this point can be extended.

Cal
 
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Today was gym day. I spent an hour on the elliptical, but at a really-really easy setting with very light resistance. I broke a sweat and pumped some blood. Pretty much I made sure there was no strain or stress on my hips.

I will wait a day to guage if I was wise, but after my walks it seemed to do the bursitis good to exercise movement. With a machine there is no shock and good form falls into place.

I think biking on this level could also be helpful. The heating pad pretty much just offers the benefit of increased localized blood flow.

My friend AJ mentioned it took a long time for him to recover from bursitis. In his case it was a shoulder.

I think Wednesday I might hit the gym again and do the same as today.

My weekly weigh in resulted in a whopping 160 1/2 pounds. I see less fat though and more muscle. Don’t know if I’ll ever be a skinny bitch again. Seems like I’m filling out and becoming more muscular. I’m looking more like a boxer with mucho upper body strength.

If someone I know is lurking, just wanted to let him know that the New York Meet-Up thread has a lot of meaning to some people who felt isolated during the pandemic and the lockdown. This thread kept many hopeful during a difficult time.

Cal
 
Further reports suggests a $50.00 Saudi price target for oil.

The squeeze on the Russian economy again was reinforced. Also stated was the growth reported by Russia about “growth” is exaggerated and inflated. The Russians need to end the war in the Ukraine before the end of 2025 or they will face an “economic catastrophe.”

The reason why Saudi oil is so easy to extract, is that it is closer to the surface. Russian oil is deep in the ground. I need to find out the new tipping points of cost feasibility.

Pretty much a boom and then a bust will happen. Collateral damage will be more expensive deeper oil extraction. Seems likely the Russians might be totally FXXX’ed.

Cal
 
Brattleboro Book Festival is coming up. A very nice venue and I think a bigger and better event than Saratoga. Looking forward to this event. Last year we attended, and this year “Maggie” was invited to present.

In doing some stretching it seems my workout today was light enough to actually loosen up the knot that is the source of discomfort. I have a foam roller I found being discarded in Madhattan that I decided to take home to recycle. A useful thing to have even though bearing your full weight on the side of your thigh is kinda painful. This loosens up the tight IT band.

I wonder if my weight gain is due to my travel eating, or water weight. Hmm… More travel ahead…

The thing with bursitis is that the discomfort settles in at night. Right now I feel rather relieved…

I kinda feel like last night’s zoning out with the guitar compares to just getting on my road bike after parking at exit 70 on the Long Island Expressway, and heading east on Sound Avenue to suddenly find myself at Orient Point. Didn’t plan on the destination, but somehow I got there. Pretty much a 50 mile unintended ride, and then the ride back ended up being over 60 miles because I rode past my turnoff.

Anyways, a pleasant experience, and now I’m enjoying a parallel experience/journey. Another thing is I’m not racing or trying to prove anything; all I’m trying to do is relax and stay active.

Cal
 
Fatigue and tiredness set in early last night after the exercise in the gym, so I went to bed early. Some discomfort in the early morning, but I did not require the heating pad. I got up a little early, but I’m well rested now.

I figure I did not do too much yesterday, and I did not overdue anything. Bursitis takes a long time to heal and I did not aggravate it. I think I loosened up the tightness quite a bit. Now I’m on the heating pad getting some comfort.

The guitar relaxes me, and if I’m too tired I fall asleep. That is what happened last night. Oh-well. A pleasant thought is getting “Red” back with all the updates, then there is the ideal matching amp, the VA185. Red is both an acoustic and electric guitar. As far as archtops go it only has a small 16 inch width on the lower bout, making it like a Gibson L-5.

Some of the nicest recordings I’ve heard is a blend of acoustic and electric sounds. Mike the amp and then mike the guitar…

Know I have pleasant dreams and I’m excited.

Cal
 
Oil prices went lower on the announcement that Israel will not attack Iran’s oil production. Things settled down and oil pricing is down to about $70.00 a barrel.

About 100 U.S. servicemen will be sent to Israel and will be in harms way to support a new missle system we are sending them. Meanwhile it is reported that there are North Korean troops in the Ukraine fighting and assisting Russia.

At what point do we tip into having a world war or two world wars?

I’m thinking of doing the winterizing of the house. The last and final mowing of the lawn, taking down the sunscreen tarp on the pergola, and tying back the climbing roses. I’ll store the hose away and turn off the basement valve.

The autumn leaves are starting to drop, and I have to cut down some brush in the back to mulch it when things die off, and the first frost generally is next week. I hope to round up lots of leaves to do a heavy mulch this year, The man made cliff/bluff I am creating is getting built out.

Cal
 
Separately oil prices are down also because of the slowdown in China. The news of Chinese stimulus faded fast and the increase expected demand went south.

Inflating a bubble is very hard to do, and IMHO deflation/excess supply will persist. Too little and too late. China is in a deflationary spiral. The deflation has rooted.

The alliance with Russia and all the ill-will that has been seeded adds to the deflation.

Cal
 
In reviewing the orthopedic doctor’s notes and comments of my X-rays, pretty much the results are unremarkable, which translates to nothing more than the usual wear and tare of aging.

This is good news. It was explained to me that the minor amounts of arthritis present is so minimal that it deserves no comment.

Booking physical therapy at “Maggie’s” hospital location will take some time. There is a waiting list…

In the meantime I can just do what I did yesterday. I also can do my stretching exercises.

So the good news is I have no appreciable damage or anything notable that will really restrict my activities except avoid high impact.

Cal
 
I had an assignment from my Junior Editor to do one of my portraits for an ongoing “Ten-Questions” feature. Pretty much I try to do a somewhat street like portrait instead of something stiff or formal.

My weapon of choice is my SL2 with an APO 35 Cron shot wide open. This rig/setup is crazy good. The resolution of the APO glass along with 48MP is just totally insane. No lie or exaggeration. When I say it does not get better than this, I mean it.

So I set up an appointment with my subject for 3:00 PM today, and the studio I went to is within walking distance. I was just “minding my own business” when things kinda mushroomed. Looks like this recording studio that specializes in remastering and cutting vinyl needs and likes me as a photographer.

I chimped my SL2 and Scott asked if I somehow could get the files to him. It was EZ-PZ to just pull the 125 GB SD card and let him download the Raw files. Remember I’m a lazy-slacker…

Know that the SL2 is set up that I have raw on one SD card and JPEGs on a separate second card.

Scott also has a recording studio to record and showcase talent. We talked of barter and also about paying gigs.

So pretty much I wandered into a gig and made a very valuable connection. Staying retired or trying to have a boring life is hard to do.

Cal
 
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