NYC Journal

Gold’s new Intra-Day High: $2756.80.

There is a lot of momentum in so many new higher-highs.

This is an indicator of deep troubles and turmoil ahead. Currency and debt crisis’s are the future.

No surprise to many, but also many saddled with debt will be weighed down and drown.

This is what happens when financial engineering creates a culture of spend-spend-spend to no end and living on debt becomes the culture to live by. By avoiding corrections there is no free markets to regulate things like consumption and savings. When the shoe drops it will be rude…

Cal
 
A passing thought today is that I already had a life of struggle, so why regress by embracing a struggle in the arts. Fame and fortune are fraught.

Art should be fun. Remember I’m a self-proclaimed lazy-slacker.

Pretty much at this point in my life I don’t have to prove anything and happiness is a matter of choice.

My past is interesting, and defines the man who I am today, but that part of my life is sad, so why linger there?

At the Book Festivals I kinda draw out attention and interest. One question leads to another, and the next thing you know it is as if I’m presenting or being interviewed.

They say if you write, you are a writer, but this is like saying anyone that owns a camera is a photographer. At this point I don’t even know if I consider myself a photographer anymore. I know I was, and I had that identity, but I don’t feel that way anymore.

My pursuit currently is music and being in the moment. My identity is as “A student of the guitar.”

Know that the attention I garner is a liability and a problem. In college, a friend and classmate flattered me with the comment that I have “Stage Presence.”

Again another performative remark.

Cal
 
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It is mucho interesting being off-line for a few days. The world spins, and pretty much I see the world with fresh eyes.

Patterns become more evident, and what strikes me today is the term “Lost-Decade” which actually is a term describing a deflationary spiral that happened in Japan after a real estate bubble popped around the late 1990’s. Pretty much the term lost-decade could be called the lost two-decades because deflation persisted in Japan for a lot longer than a decade, and indeed there is a term called “the lost generation” because an entire generation that went to college found no prosperity or employment opportunity.

Zero APR, the carry-trade, actually became Japanese exports. Only very recently has Japan been able to raise interest rates.

This lost generation became stigmatized and pretty much were written off as losses. This is in a country that has an aging and declining population. Part of this is cultural, because in Japan lifetime employment is the culture.

So a headline today is using the term “lost-decade,” a time of overcapacity, being used as a possibility here in the U.S. It kinda does make sense to me as not only a possibility, but maybe eventually become inevidible.

I say all the time, “The money has to come from somewhere,” and sooner or later debt has to be paid back, not paid forward. Figure all the rescues from collapses that have occurred over say the past 15 years. Collapses were avoided by crazy amounts of stimulas, and the money came from printing debt.

Again, understand that deflation in one word is “overcapacity.” China is experiencing that right now. In Europe, as well as the U.S. there presently an overcapacity of new cars. In the U.S. this also extends to a glut of used cars.

What I’m suggesting is overcapacity is already a problem, but will it get as bad as China in Europe and the U.S.? My bias is the Chinese with their history of mucho bad policy and huge monumental short sighted mistakes will always be worse, but in Europe and here in the U.S. there is great potential for the reuse of the term “China Syndrome.”

My spin is on the term that was originally coined to describe a nuclear reactor meltdown.

Bankruptcy, defaults on loans, and/or debasing of currencies is the future. Gold futures and the hoarding suggest this. The U.S. dollar certainly will be worth less, and or will become worthless if the U.S. defaults.

Hmmm…

How crazy are these thoughts? Am I insane?

Cal
 
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Gold New Intra-Day High $2758.70.

Guitar practice came back with a vengeance after a 3-day break. Playing Santa Cruz acoustic guitars. Pretty much a second heaven.

“Maggie” is in NYC visiting her dermatologist.

An 84 degree high expected today in Peekskill.

Maggie also relinquishes that Peekskill is suburban, and now she see’s a future here, but she/we still want a rural retreat.

Lunch right now, then more guitar. Some OCD behavior is settling in.

Cal
 
Gold’s new Intra-Day High $2762.90.

This is quite a tear. At this rate gold could breach $2.8K by the end of the week.

The market seems to have discovered that the debt load and deficits are a problem and that currency devaluations and government defaults might be at the tipping point.

Perhaps the deflation I mentioned is adding up and people are starting to realize that the world is ripe for a slow-down that might be a “lost-decade.” BTW I see no way out for China. They are doomed/toast…

Don’t forget that paying down debt requires mucho discipline, sacrifice, and austerity. In Canada in 1992 they lost their Triple AAA bond rating. There was a liberal government at that time, and it took a decade to get back their Triple AAA bond rating.

They trimmed back the government, cut programs, and tightened their belt.

Also paying down debt takes mucho-mucho long time. If there is deflation, the overcapacity means a slow economy, and that translates into even more difficulty paying down debt.

Canada is a vast country, not so small an economy, one of the G-7, but it has a much smaller population than the U.S. I give the Canadians mucho credit for doing two things: one is being fiscally responsible in a manner that the U.S. might never ever be able to do as specified above; and basically defending their country from U.S. aggression and beating us decisively in every battle I know of in the War of 1812.

Canada kinda beat the crap out of us in every fight in the War of 1812. No joke.

I also look up to Canadians as being more polite and respectful than us rude Americans, well except the French Canadian women who are sexually kinda direct when they see a man they find attractive.

Cal
 
A Croatian translation of “Maggie’s” book will be released next month. The cover will be one of my photographs.

Kinda cool, but my life is no different. I actually like it that way.

I’m actually fatigued from my guitar practice.

Maggie did a Covid test. She has a sore throat and a fever. The test was negative.

Tomorrow is a day off. Nothing to do. I love it.

I played mostly the Santa Cruz custom Model “F” that is modeled as if a 1934 version. This guitar is really balanced now, and from here it might get some deeper bass response and also gain some additional volume. I am pleased because the sound is so open.

Pretty much most of the tone has emerged for the most part, and I kinda noticed this lush hum of overtones that are choir like. Kinda sounds like a ring-tone on a cell phone. I muffled the strings because I thought some electronic device was emitting an alarm. The chime like tones are resonances.

So I have an acoustic guitar that kinda has a reverb, and the reverb is mucho muy pronounced. It has this kinda unusual “hang-time.” This guitar I would say is crisp because the attack and the notes are so well defined. My Brazilian OM is more slurred, but that is its domain.

I’m kinda physically exhausted and hammered from guitar.

Cal
 
Calzone said:
Gold’s new Intra-Day High $2762.90.

This is quite a tear. At this rate gold could breach $2.8K by the end of the week.

The market seems to have discovered that the debt load and deficits are a problem and that currency devaluations and government defaults might be at the tipping point.

Perhaps the deflation I mentioned is adding up and people are starting to realize that the world is ripe for a slow-down that might be a “lost-decade.” BTW I see no way out for China. They are doomed/toast…

Don’t forget that paying down debt requires mucho discipline, sacrifice, and austerity. In Canada in 1992 they lost their Triple AAA bond rating. There was a liberal government at that time, and it took a decade to get back their Triple AAA bond rating.

They trimmed back the government, cut programs, and tightened their belt.

Also paying down debt takes mucho-mucho long time. If there is deflation, the overcapacity means a slow economy, and that translates into even more difficulty paying down debt.

Canada is a vast country, not so small an economy, one of the G-7, but it has a much smaller population than the U.S. I give the Canadians mucho credit for doing two things: one is being fiscally responsible in a manner that the U.S. might never ever be able to do as specified above; and basically defending their country from U.S. aggression and beating us decisively in every battle I know of in the War of 1812.

Canada kinda beat the crap out of us in every fight in the War of 1812. No joke.

I also look up to Canadians as being more polite and respectful than us rude Americans, well except the French Canadian women who are sexually kinda direct when they see a man they find attractive.

Cal
Click to expand...

A few thoughts here, from a Canadian-Australian - born in French Canada (added later: to an Irish dad and a French mom), so what does that make me, an alien?!? Hoo!!

Canada has what?? 30 and a little more millions population. The USA has almost ten times more. Easier to make fiscal changes, especially when they hurt, with such a small population than the massive one in Merka.

Australia has 27 millions and a bit more. And now busy making the same mistakes Canada did in the '90s, and the USA is doing now.

Some never learn. Or follow the silly principle that if somebody else makes a mistake, then we have to make it too.

Living and learning.

BTW I like your self-definition in #3682 - permit me the honor of quoting you: "Pretty much at this point in my life I don’t have to prove anything and happiness is a matter of choice."

Sums me up to a T, it does. Kudos!!
 
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DU,

Upon visiting Montreal and Toronto, I kinda learned how annoying we Americans are. Even the sparrows are friendlier in Canada, although they beg for food.

In Toronto I kinda became a Blue Jays fan just because of the spirit on the streets.

“Maggie” did not take notice of some of the behavior in Montreal of the women. I felt really flattered, but then again I could also complain and been part of the “Me-Too” being sexualized, harassed, and looked upon as meat by very predatory women.

I’m aware that because of the population difference/differential, here in the U.S. we could never do what Canada did/performed.

BTW Canada by all reports kicked our ass in every battle in the War of 1812.

Cal
 
Calzone said:
DU,

Upon visiting Montreal and Toronto, I kinda learned how annoying we Americans are. Even the sparrows are friendlier in Canada, although they beg for food.

In Toronto I kinda became a Blue Jays fan just because of the spirit on the streets.

“Maggie” did not take notice of some of the behavior in Montreal of the women. I felt really flattered, but then again I could also complain and been part of the “Me-Too” being sexualized, harassed, and looked upon as meat by very predatory women.

I’m aware that because of the population difference/differential, here in the U.S. we could never do what Canada did/performed.

BTW Canada by all reports kicked our ass in every battle in the War of 1812.

Cal
Click to expand...

I lived in Montreal for a couple of years while in grad school at McGill. The women are astoundingly attractive. They are elegant looking from that Indian blood and well dressed with hair, nails, makeup just perfect. Ah, I remember it well.

The recounting of the War of 1812 is not quite accurate. I studied US and Canadian History at McGill. There is a degree of enmity towards us in Canada along with well-founded frustration. We screwed them on border deals, like the Alaska Panhandle, and they would kindly move our joint border north a bit to satisfy us now and again. They are our largest trading partner and we share the longest non-militarized border in the world. What frosts them is that about 90% of the Americans could not find Canada with a map and a compass. And most Americans do not really give a damn about Canada. OTOH, Canadians know US History better than Americans do. Many Canadians are bi-lingual, more so in the east. Not so much in the West.

Regardless, "Peace, Order and Good Government" is more than a catchy slogan. It is a great way to run a country. And Canadians may well be the most polite people in the world. That is until they have a hockey stick in their hands.

And today's little known fact about a well-known subject, Montreal is the coldest and snowiest major city anywhere in the world. Snow removal is contracted out at a flat rate for the first six feet and then so much a foot after. And I have seen -50F there. And in the spring, when the snow melts, you know the park lawns are covered with freshly thawed dog poop. The food is great, it is bumper-to-bumper at Place Ville Marie, the center of downtown, at midnight seven nights a week. Yes, it is a party town. Those foxes like to get out at night. ;o)

It is a very classy city.
 
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“Hockey-Factor.” Now I understand why we Americans took a beating.

At my hospital who was a radio chemist, and she pretty much was a sweet kind hearted girl, but one day I talked her off the ledge. She was from Toronto and was a big Maple Leafs fan. Pretty much she said if her boss keeps her late again that she was going to punch him in the face.

“Hockey-Mode.”

Her boss was a jerk, so I understood her anger and frustration. Also know that the sweet and kind Canadian girl kinda dissolved into becoming a rude and aggressive New Yorker in no time. Basically she got Americanized.

I would agree that the women in Montreal are elegant and sophisticated. I was astounded on how sexually outward they are. Pretty much a role reversal, at least in my case. Also the women were great looking. I felt preyed upon by women carnivores.

Don’t tell “Maggie.”

As you can tell I love Montreal. Because of the “Underground City” and my Cold Agglutinin Disease we were considering living there.

Walking around the west side of Madhattan we stumbled into Jerome from Montreal who happened to be a RFF member. I invited Jerome to the Meet-Up, but Jerome was surprised. “You’re Calzone?” He said.

I guess he was expecting some Italian guy from Brooklyn. “Calzone” is a persona, and know I am a white boy trapped in an Asian body.

Cal
 
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DISCLAIMER: I am not an economist, although I might have Bankster blood in me from my mother’s side. My mom was an educated women from Hong Kong, but my dad was from the merchant class that in China had less status than peasants. I am a product of the mix of high and low: part thug; part ruling class; and it seems I got blessed with my mother’s great looks.

Any investment advice or news is just an expression of thinking, and know that culturally us Cantonese endured almost a thousand years of feudalism and evolution and natural selection kinda breed us for fighting as if part of me is pit-bull.

I have aggressive risky behavior in my breeding, and know grandfather on my fathers side was executed in China for murder. My grandfather was a gambler and he killed the loan shark that burnt down his business.

Then know that 95% of the Chinese in the new world that were able to leave China at one time were all Cantonese. The point is we spread all over the world, so part of my blood is adventurer.

Please use any investment advice at your own peril…

Gold’s Intra-Day High already is at $2772.60. My suggestion that gold will hit $2.8K by the end of the week looks like not a bad bet.

In the past I used Pivot-Point Analysis along with technical analysis to swing trade commodities. I made a lot of money. Pivot point analysis is basically statistics using averages. Do a search to learn more.

If you expand the daily chard to 5-days, then the monthly then three month, then six month, then yearly, then three years eventually you will see a pattern call a “cup and handle” then at the end of the handle a sudden upturn that is called a “Breakout.”

Pretty much this is a beginning of a breakout. Anyways I’m pretty certain a breakout is happening.

Hmmm… So how to trade gold without actually purchasing gold bars or gold coins Hmmmm… Just use the ETF “GLD” which is an ETF trading presently at around $253.00 a share. This is not a gold mining stock, but is a fund based on buying physical gold, so the delivery and storage issues are taken care of and this is traded as a liquid asset.

So pretty much my Bankster blood is making me think Hmmm. Understand I have crazy ideas…

Cal
 
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Gold a year ago was $1935.60. Gold now is almost 39% higher. Hmmm.

The cup and handle is clearly evident when the charts get expanded, and they show/indicate long periods of consolidation. The breakout is clearly evident.

People who held physical gold as insurance are now experiencing bigger gains than the S&P 500 in the YTD by about 11%. In the yearly they are tied though.

For swing and position trading GLD is a ETF that offers liquidity. $253.00 a share makes the price point an acceptable entry point.

Cal
 
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A “Red” screen today in the pre-markets. One headline is that the stock market and gold both being at all time highs means one of them is wrong. Then there is talk of bank foldings and failures. Now bank runs?

The commercial real estate bubble did not go away, and they said near the end of this year and next year loans come due and need to be rolled over. Meanwhile while the FED interest rates have been lowered Mortgage Rates have not followed and in fact are higher.

The direct message to me is that the banks don’t want to take on the risk and lend the money. If you ask why and connect the dots, pretty much they know something the general public does not know, and basically their policy of keeping their ammo dry, loading up with gold kinda directly translates into they expect a problem or crisis being eminent.

Banks are considered “smart-money.” Why are Central Banks big buyers of Gold? Certainly there is a good reason…

So place your bet…

Tomorrow I go see my urologist. The next step is the prostrate biopsy. A family member had one performed and it was said he could not walk for two days.

“Maggie” found out yesterday from her dermatologist that there is a dermatologist shortage. Maggie wil likely have to find a new one and book an appointment 6 months from now up here in our network. Her dermatologist got a position near her country home in western New Jersey. Oh-well.

Maggie is such a white girl with blue eyes that she has to get screened for skin Cancer twice a year as maintenance. Irish, English and Dutch genes…

BTW my bet is for gold. I can see gold hitting $5K-$6K eventually or higher in a once in a lifetime event. I’m talking about a huge credit crisis where developed countries have to confront avoiding default.

In another post I explained how China keeps lending money to developing countries that basically borrow even more money to rollover the debt and pay for the accumulated deficits. Pretty much China does not want to lock in loses or renegotiate debt.

What happens if no one buys U.S. debt/bonds because of the risk of default? The U.S. might have to be like Russia and raise and elevate rates so the bond yields rise to mitigate the risk. Then think of the huge reversal that is just the opposite of stimulas and pretty much there is no money. Imagine interest rates in the double digits…

I’m talking real austerity. Any debt will get compounded and people literally will drown in their own debt. Things are also pointing at “stagflation”a prolonged period of slow economic growth along with high inflation.

In finance they suggest placing about 5% of your wealth in gold as insurance. Pretty much I see and believe that this is the time that it is good to have that insurance.

Of course a “Deep-South” event like Phil outlined still is valid and true, but to a point gold is like having some spare ammo that might keep you alive a little longer.

I already lived through the 1974 oil crisis and experienced double digit inflation and double digit unemployment. This period of stagflation persisted till 1982.

HERE WE GO AGAIN.

Cal
 
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I forgot to mention bond yields are also up. Something is going to give.

The last time I experienced a likely turning point was when oil prices in 2007 first hit $135.00 a barrel. I hit the sell button around lunchtime that day, and then later that afternoon oil exceeded $147.00 and then collapsed. I also closed my account knowing that a collapse was on hand that would trickle into the markets. “Cash is King,” they say.

First there was a credit crisis in 2007, and then in 2008 a housing crisis. I was using leverage in a margin account, so if I did not lock in my profits and sat on losses I would of gotten wiped out. Pretty much the only difference between me and a hedge fund was just one zero: I used 3 to one leverage; and hedge funds utilized 30 to one leverage.

Pretty much leverage is a force multiplier: it can amplify profits; or it can amplify losses. I was a little guy with big balls competing and playing against the big boys.

Something very-very unusual is brewing, but the VIX, or fear index is still relatively low. Even the dollar is strong and that tempers the price of gold somewhat because gold is priced in dollars.

This is just so highly unusual where all asset classes are bumped up. Certainly the markets are confused: who is right; and who is wrong?

I favor the insights provided by the Banksters. They are the smart money. Also the report on banks still in trouble is by regulators.

So pretty much all the news seems to be pointing to being really close to an edge of a cliff of sorts.

You should know that I have a Master’s Degree in TV Broadcast Journalism, so I have useful training to process facts, connect the dots, and filters developed to eliminate the noise.

I learned early on that the news drives the markets, so no economic degree required, finance degree, or MBA required to make money.

A lot of this is just knowing economic history, pattern recognition, and having imagination.

This is a very odd and strange Sich-E-A-tion.

Cal
 
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Existing home sales have dropped to 2010 lows. Some cite the uncertainty of the election, others cite interest rates… What is not spoken about is debt levels. Pretty much the news media tries to prove only one point when the world we live in is mucho complicated.

They say that wages have increased allowing inflated prices to become affordable. They say that food prices have come down using wage inflation to kinda manipulate data, meanwhile over the past 4 years food prices have increased 25% and prices have not dropped.

I see a tale of two markets here that is divided: one group are homeowners many that have either ReFi’ed or bought homes at low rates; the other are not ready to buy and not only are priced out, but are smart enough not to get in over their head. Some of this is interest rate related, some is the uncertainty of the economy and politics, and lastly credit card debt and other personal debt like car loans.

Why do you think there is a glut/oversupply of both new and used cars in the U.S. Pretty much if you read between the lines the economy is really not so strong as the FED believes, and households have been living on debt.

Evident to me that the economy is kinda at a market balance point and also the U.S. economy really is not that strong, and this is also with problems in China and Europe.

Think of a country like Pakistan that funds its government with borrowed money from China, and that debt simply gets rolled over because the Chinese don’t want to write down loans or take losses. Pretty much a definition of repeated behavior that defines insanity.

Pakistan is not the only country whose debt and government is funded by Chinese loans…

China use to be a big buyer of U.S. debt, but not anymore. The reason is that they are limiting the dollar influence and reserves. They would rather hold gold, and are trying to develop their currency into a reserve currency. The interesting fact though is that for the past 5 months the Chinese have not bought any gold.

The complexity of all this chaos is amazing. We live in the age of both information and dis-information. Pretty much data is never really assembled to see the crisis brewing. One analyst uses chaos theory to use a model where grains of sand build until one single grain of sand triggers a collapse of an “Island of stability.”

I’m amazed that financial engineering has been able to create so many Islands of Stability. When will that one grain of sand trigger a collapse.

In the military they call this a cluster-FXXX.

Anyways my eyes are wide open.

Cal
 
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The warm weather prediction looks already to extend to November. Generally the first frost is around mid October in Peekskill. Last year was in the top 5 longest growing seasons.

Yesterday it hit 85 degrees as a high, but the nights are cool and crisp. Looks like another extended growing season this year. Today’s high was 82.

Wonder if we might extend the growing season into mid November? Seems like a possibility.

In Vermont we saw an interesting windowed second floor that was an inspiration for perhaps the second story on the garage. Pretty much windows on all 4 sides. Kinda like a solarium. Hmmm…

We like Brattleboro a lot. Kinda small town and old buildings and houses. Pretty much an old hippy vibe, but none of the displays of affluence like here in New York. Kinda laid back and low key. The thing though is retirement there offers no tax benefit. Pretty much full boat and even Social Security will be taxed.

Here in New York Social Security does not get taxed, and I get $20K of my pension or 403B tax exempt. If I had a state or government pension none of it would be taxed, but my pensions are private pensions.

New York is not so bad. www.SmartAsset.com has a tax calculator that was very helpful in doing my own financial planning. Pretty easy to see tax ramifications of various states and the various tax liabilities.

North Carolina basically was no better than New York. There they have a flat income tax.

Cal
 
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Seems like after I published the above post I saw that about 2/3rds of the country is experiencing a mild warm October. Looks like my guess about this warmth lasting to mid November is predicted. I was just lucky guessing. Other then the states that got flooded due to the hurricanes the rest of the country is suffering a bit of a drought.

New York and Philly have had no measurable precipitation.

Cal
 
Historically, gold prices always fluctuate. Not always like they are doing now, but, well, you know - times of crisis.

Banks everywhere seem to be investing in gold. As a hedge against - who knows.

Money is basically paper, or more recently plastic. Gold is solid.

The silver market is more of interest to many of us who are small investors. this may be worth looking into at your end.

Anyway, everything will change in November. The big question is, which way will it go.
 
Either way deficits will increase, but one candidate will be promoting a huge bigger deficit. The danger here I mentioned is inflation, and gold is the hedge against inflation.

I see serious danger ahead if one candidate gets elected, not only for our country, but also for the rest of the world.

The CRE (Commercial Real Estate) debt has not been rolled over, and from my reading the Banksters have added extensions to the terms that somewhat distill and concentrate these losses into the future instead of becoming due. Pretty much a bigger bomb is being made.

The regulators have also identified that some banks are in danger due to CRE exposure, and pretty much there are dangers of bank runs and bank insolvencies.

Silver has an ETF, SLV I think is the ticker if I remember correctly. Silver is valued about $34.00 an ounce.

Pretty much either way in November we here in the U.S. will be poorer. Inflation will continue to cause economic damage, and if one candidate gets elected I see stagflation coming.

Things will be going south, but hopefully not deep-south.

Cal
 
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