NYC Journal

[Calzone]

Got the lab results back from the tests. Some results suggest dehydration, perhaps from low sodium recorded in my metabolic panel.

Not unusual for my blood to register abnormalities, I have Cold Agglutinin Disease, so large diameter Red Blood cells is normal for me. Know that Red Blood Cells get smaller as they age, so my RBC’s are fresh and new.

So I hope this does not mess with my scheduled surgery…

Thursday’s are a regular meet-up with Andrew. I walked up the hill and hung out for about 4 hours. A quirky loner, and somehow I have become a trusted friend. Unlike me Andrew is not well known and has a low public profile. He truly is a loner.

I don’t watch TV, so today I got a glimpse of the L.A. fires at Andrew’s and the serious destruction. Wow..

Went to Trader Joe’s to stock up. Today they had eggs and I bought 4 dozen at $3.49 a dozen.

Made some discoveries today by using a pickguard to determine if the rear route cavity lines up with a standard Tele pickguard. This moves many ideas forward and makes it easy to buy a finished Cabronita body and for EZ-PZ modification to add mucho value added.

So pretty much a reward for being stubborn, clever and OCD. Mighty clever because it is so easy. So brilliant and in your face that it will annoy people. So cool and obvious that it will make some people feel dumb. Of course this is an unintended insult. LOL

I don’t want to do anything to the two Cabronita’s I already own because they are great guitars as is, but maybe the sunburst single pickup one…

It does kinda make sense just to buy yet another body, but only one is available now, and it is 4 pounds 11 ounces which is heavier than I would like, and I don’t care so much for the all the red in the sunburst.

Know that red is the most impermanent color that tends to be the first to fade. Not really vintage correct…

So I can wait, but today I had a creative breakthrough. My business model is a big markup for a little amount of work. If I do a test and say get 10-12 bodies prepped for my mod and have a booth at say the annual Philly Guitar Show. It would be just a test of the market.

The rest is salesmanship, and I would have a concentrated targeted audience. No shipping and no sales platform fees like EBAY or Reverb. I could have fun, and it would be time limited to a weekend, so ZI can be the lazy-slacker I am known to be.

Hmmm…

Also I have another idea to add a third knob to the white Cabronita that features 2 pickups: add a tone knob that can be switched in place of the mixer.

Elegant solutions that are trick and cool. As usual another day of evolution.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

In the mirror I see some definition emerging that suggests I am thinning out. Also my rings fit in a manner that suggests I’m slimming down. This is without going gonzo with exercise, just cutting carbs and eating good. The slow gain of added weight in reverse little by little.

I’ll be grilling some salmon and cooking some brown rice for dinner.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I looked over my lab results again. While some readings are out of the normal range, they are normal for me. A different picture gets painted with looking at the historical data. For me, I’m healthy…

So Monday I need my PCP approval for Wednesday’s surgery. I want to move forward…

Gold is above $2.7K again, and oil prices are over $76.00. Perhaps signs of future inflation and uncertainty. Dollar value is up, so gold and oil being commodities priced in U.S. Dollars is expensive for other currencies. Britain looks to be heading into a financial crisis.

The fires in L.A. are a horror story. Over 50 billion in losses. This is a huge example of “Broken Window Theory.” It goes like this: a neighbor’s kid breaks one of your windows with a ball by accident, you replace the window that got broken, but really this expense did not add to economic growth, in fact it only got you back to where you were, and secondarily it would be better economically and financially if the window never got broken.

So replacing a broken window does not really increase productivity: it really is a loss. There are real costs from this disaster, and this will likely increase inflationary pressures of all sorts: in building materials; household goods, durable goods; cars… Pretty much a serious loss that will effect the entire country economically.

So $50 billion dollars loss and the fires still rage… Don’t forget that this is still an on going emergency.

Fact is this is not so easy as replacing a window… the scale is a like rebuilding a city that we destroyed in a war. Things won’t be the same either…

Global warming and climate change are very real. Andrew mentioned that the air quality is like a September 11th event. Pretty serious health consequences…

So L.A. is the second largest city in the U.S. Lots of concentrated wealth. This is a big disruptive hit with huge consequences. I feel sad for the disruption, displacement, and loss for all those people.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

L.A. wildfire now estimated between $135 billion and $150 billion dollars.

Scary already and still on going.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Yesterday, I saw a male Cardinal, and a Blue Jay near the front feeder. These birds are ground feeders, but the smaller birds are messy eaters like “Maggie” so they also somehow get fed by the smaller birds.

The feeding is more frenzied with the onset of cold. Also they eat more.

Also yesterday I think I saw a Northern Harrier over the marsh. Did more research to make a more positive ID. The way it flies is very different than say a Red Tailed Hawk. This is the second one I think I’ve seen. The first one kinda swooped by me low to the ground not far from my head in my front backyard.

A bit crazy because these birds are16-24 inches in body size. They also have an owl like face. At first I thought it was an owl, but owls tend to be nocturnal.

So now I will look for the banded tail and for the Vee shape of the wings while flying. Yesterday’s sighting involved seeing it landing and roosting on a long dead tree as a perch, but as I approached it took off. The flight was very different than the soaring of a red tailed hawk. The flapping of wings also is different.

Not sure but it could of been an owl, but it was around 2:00 PM and during the day. Like I said owls usually are nocturnal.

More research. This time on owls. BTW Northern Harriers are also called “Marsh Hawks.”

Cal

 

[Calzone]

My sightings could of been a short eared owl. They are active during the day, and are the right size with about a 40 inch wingspan. They are not very vocal which fits the profile

So still up in the air: Northern Harrier; or Short Eared Owl.

BTW the Short Eared Owl is listed as endangered in New York.

I suspect I’m seeing Northern Harriers. They winter in New York, but generally in the western part of the state.

BTW I feed the birds before I eat.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Taiwan Semi-Conductor, the world’s largest chipmaker, reports record sales.

No surprise here, as stock-piling is happening, pre-tariff increases to add initially to buffer future higher prices and shortages.

I hope you did your pre-tariff shopping and stockpiling. Expect inflation, higher prices, and shortages. Simple economics…

Pretty much the last hurrah… A new era will begin shortly, hope you are ready.

Also know that the markets do not respond well to uncertainty, and surely the chaos yet to happen likely will destabilize the markets. Also mucho unintended consequences from policy changes. Keep your ammo dry.

“Look out below.”

I don’t see a bright future ahead. Best to hunker and bunker down living below your means, always good policy, and having little debt or no debt.

Troubles lay a head. Some households will get crushed. Too much debt, and too many households living on debt. Also record levels of debt bolds badly for any resolution or solution.

I’ll mention the “B” word: Bankrupcy.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Lots of forms need to get electronically signed. Part of the surgery process…

So things still are moving forward.

I might be on the threshold of skinny bitch mode. I see the emergence of muscle tone even without taunt muscles from a workout.

The piss intervals seem to be adding to good bladder control. The repeated starting and stoping flow I think is a leg-up.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A pretty big sell off in the markets. Gold is also going up. A headline is that consumers expect and anticipate an inflation rate of 3.3%.

So far about 200K people are being displaced by the wildfires. No quick fix, and likely these people will get further displaced. The housing shortage suddenly got worse in a hurry. Pretty sure that a reverse “Grapes Of Wrath” migration will begin from California.

Like during Covid and the Pandemic those that have the money and resources will likely relocate because they have the means and ways. Also kinda foolish to rebuild because the wildfire hazards did not go away.

So where will these people move to? My worry is that the Hudson Valley might be on the target list for many. This could foster a higher rate of inflation here, and also make the housing shortage worse here locally.

Also here in the Hudson Valley we have out own wild fire risks. Not so far away are wilderness areas, and from what I read New York has been lame about prevention and management of wildfire risks. Even New Jersey is doing a better job.

Anyways, those that have the means, meaning the wealthy, might be invading New York and drive up the cost of living, creating inflation, and making the housing shortage worse.

We also are not immune to droughts.

I finally was able to place the Callahan hardware parts order. It actually was good to have a delay, because I overlooked some parts that I will need.

I went to CVS to use some coupons before they expire and to stock up. I saved $17.77.

On my walk to CVS, about 3 blocks away, on my way home I saw two red tail hawks: one was soaring; but one was circling low over a house rooftop.

On my balance sheet though I have been spending lots of money on guitar parts, but I expect in the bigger picture this will be a wise move to stock up now.

I kinda came up with a genius mod for the two-pickup Cabronita that features a mixer control. I will utilize the second set of contacts on the push-pull pot to disconnect the bridge pickup from the mixer to go directly to the volume pot when the bleed cap is engaged by the first switch. Pretty much the preset requires a big signal, the highs get chopped, and pretty much you get this cocked-wah tone that has a very vocal quality to it for a lead sound.

The 2-pickup Cabronita remains elegant with only two knobs. Very cool and hip.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

La Niña for the next three months here in the Hudson Valley means more precipitation than average and also milder temperatures.

Of course this is not the rest of the country.

Again blessed.

Seems like the front feeder gets about half empty by lunchtime.

Also that free battery that came from the defective heated hooded pancho that “Maggie” ordered provides over 8 hours of heat with still a lot of reserve power left. EZ-PZ to avoid deep cycling which is bad for the life of the battery.

The day is mild, so I will go out to scout around the yard.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Is the “Insanity-Premium” becoming validated and real?

The Insanity-Premium is a phrase that Paul Krugman coined for an increase in Treasury yields due to disruptive policy changes like tariffs and other protectionistic measures that are the Trump platform. Paul Krugman is a Nobel Prize winning economist. His perspective was liberal, and he published a lot in the New York Times.

Current Treasuries yields dropped today to 14 month lows. Pretty much the bet is higher yields in the future so pretty much current bonds are worth-less. Don’t confuse worth-less, two words, with worthless which is one word. Wall Street is thinking higher yields in the future, that explains the drop in price on existing bonds.

Pretty much the sell off that started earlier in the week and did a serious drop today, even though the employment number was good, suggests perhaps the “Insanity-Premium” that Paul Krugman suggests is real.

Others are saying “Cash is King.” Pretty much waiting for the shoe to drop to buy the bargains. Warren Buffet is doing just that and is holding a pile of cash.

Anyone with big debt will get crushed when the shoe drops. Increased volatility is expected.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The futures market looks like another 600-700 drop on the DOW on Monday’s opening. “Look out below,” they say.

Lots of volatility triggered by lots of uncertainty. I would expect because of radical policy changes that there will be many surprises and unintended consequences.

One thing I know for sure is that any downturn or slowdown will be compounded by big consumer debt loads, and pretty much the Federal Government also has some serious debt load. Both are not on sustainable paths… I figure something has to give.

So austerity is what I’m kinda expecting, also inflation. Inflation might not be mucho high, but it will get entrenched and get sustained for a prolonged time. The FED fell behind the curve, they really only moderated inflation, and because of the governments debt load the FED can only go so far in choking itself.

Bonds get rolled over into new bonds at higher interest rates to increase interest payments worsening our deficit. Payback certainly will be a bitch. Very rude…

The increase in Bond yields is Wall Street’s insight that inflation and higher interest rates are the future. Also mortgage rates also have increased and are around 7% again. The FED lowered interest rates, yet risk does not allow the banks and mortgage lenders to lower their rates.

So are the valuations of the markets justified? Is a correction under way? Will our economy be ruined by bad policy? Do you think inflation will be a problem?

A survey found that consumers think inflation will be around 3.3%. This means inflation is the mindset and already is entrenched. Like I said Powell and the FED is behind the curve and did not kill inflation. They only moderated it.

I will restate that Jerome Powell is not an economist, professionally he is a lawyer.

I am not an economist either, I’m trained in the arts. Point is would you want me running the FED?

Will we be as bad as China as far as destroying our future and our economy?

Remember the phrase, “Insanity-Premium.”

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gentile snowfall.

Certainly our birds will do a feeding frenzy. Off to feed them.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The Callahan order I think is being delivered by FED Ex today, I have to sign for it because it was a big order and has a high dollar value.

This is high-end CNC machined parts that is well designed. Pretty much jewelry and a bit extreme. It brings out the best in tone though.

So I’m at a point in life where it is about quality, indulgence, and arguably having perhaps the best. Anyways durable goods that will last a lifetime.

The 2 1/2 year old grandson already has expressed his guitar fetish, and he loves my guitar room. Certainly he will be the beneficiary of my exploits. He could be a prodigy…

Julian Lage started playing guitar at the age of 5, and at the age of 8 he was playing out. Today he is a notable Jazz guitarist who lives in Brooklyn. He is known for playing a 1958 Fender Tele that is a Top-Loader.

The Callahan Bigsby bridge on the DeMarino has a top loading feature. I bought two more of these Bigsby bridges to exploit the top loader feature just to have the flexibility and the option. Pretty much paid about a $30.00 or $35.00 premium for this adaptability.

These two bridges are unlikely to ever be used with a Bigsby as intended. Pretty much this is just being clever and creative.

The cool thing about a top-loader is that it can soften the attack and make a very trebly guitar tamer. Also know that mounting the strings through the body accentuates the attack as well as the sustain. The strings energy is more directly coupled to the body with strings-through-body mounting.

So pretty cool to have this feature and being able to tailor each string individually. Combine this with using either brass or steel saddles which also deeply effects the tone, sustain and the attack: steel being more in your face; and brass smoother with more midrange response and a mellower sound that is warmer.

So pretty much tone tailoring is evolving. All my Callahan bridges are modular. There is a lot of freedom here. Lots of creativity also, and perhaps OCD behavior.

Understand that Leo Fender was a cheap-FXXX and he was very cost conscious. Fender Tele bridges are cheap stamped steel, and some would argue that is the sound and the vintage sound. Extreme precision, uniformity, or consistency were not Fender strong points. QC was not always good.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Know that I already have customized some of my Callahan Tele bridges: I have a mix of steel and brass saddles on some Tele’s, and all brass saddles on others. Now I’m adding a new level of fine tuning. Every guitar is different with it’s own signature and character.

Anyways OCD behavior and a search for perfection. Again avoiding “extra-medium” and mediocrity.

Perhaps I should have not read the short book “Johnathan Livingston Seagull” and taken the philosophical meaning so seriously. After reading that book I embraced being the loner that I am, and decidedly did not want to be part of a “flock.”

I wanted to be free and soar. Also in a Capricorn manner, I wanted to ascend paths that others could not follow.

Certainly few people do what I do…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The Trump Bump is disappearing. The Bond sell-off is stated as the reason.

Another headline now makes me understand the other headline about the proposed use of military force to take Greenland and the Panama Canal.

One reason is for defense and control of about 25% of the shipping lanes. This is both strategic, imperialistic and unmistakenly colonialism.

A fact I did not know is that Greenland is the second biggest supply of fresh water after Canada.

So now we are in danger of going into a “Putin” mode trying to take over countries to maintain our empire, even though we are in a decline.

This is like science fiction. He who controls the fresh water supply also controls food production. Just connect the dots.

You can’t make this stuff up. The “Insanity-Premium” is no joke.

Cal

 

[Retro-Grouch]

I am not an economist either, I’m trained in the arts. Point is would you want me running the FED?

My sense is that Economics is more voodoo than science. Or at least it's not a "hard" science. And (full disclosure: I'm also trained in the arts) I believe that people trained in the arts and humanities have a more global, holistic understanding of the world that often gives them a competence in many fields where the academic training of the experts is so limited that it becomes a hindrance. So yeah, I could see you running the FED. 😉
At the very least, it would be more entertaining than what we get from the little grey bureaucrats who seem to run everything.

 

[Calzone]

RG,

My liberal education that spans initially the visual arts, then communication arts, and finally a MFA in creative writing does well to annoy people.

“Maggie” was a full blown academic, and she has a PhD and two masters, but at times she has voiced her envy because I have a MFA.

Both the MFA and a PhD are “terminal degrees, meaning the upper limit of a specialty.

So anyways the point is that my education annoys people, even Maggie.

Alvin Toffer, the Science Fiction writer, wrote a book that was very informative called “The Fourth Wave.”

Pretty much he wrote about “The Age of Information” and at the time of the writing the Internet was still kinda new. He cited that Operation Desert Storm was a war that basically used smart weapons, advanced communications, and information to kinda make that conflict a war that basically used information as a weapon.

He also defined a new “Power Elite” of a group of people with an intelligence that allows for processing and filtering data, that are able to deal with the information overload that is the Internet and the age of information.

He also cites that this type of intelligence is not specialized, academic, it is the right combination of a broad intelligence verses a specialized one.

Anyways highly specialized thinking was put in its place and discounted. That book speaks the truth today, and it was written decades ago. Not really science fiction, pretty much visionary.

IMHO the age of information has actually made people dumber and more easily controlled and manipulated.

Also a great amount of information on the internet is wrong, not fact, dated or incorrect. Then it is dumbed down for the mass audience and is basically fluff.

My journalism degree helps me get to the facts and undo bias. Data mining is an art. A great amount of critical thinking is required and a flexible filtering to cut through all the nonsense and misinformation.

Rare skills…

Cal

 

[robert blu]

RG,

My liberal education that spans initially the visual arts, then communication arts, and finally a MFA in creative writing does well to annoy people.

“Maggie” was a full blown academic, and she has a PhD and two masters, but at times she has voiced her envy because I have a MFA.

Both the MFA and a PhD are “terminal degrees, meaning the upper limit of a specialty.

So anyways the point is that my education annoys people, even Maggie.

Alvin Toffer, the Science Fiction writer, wrote a book that was very informative called “The Fourth Wave.”

Pretty much he wrote about “The Age of Information” and at the time of the writing the Internet was still kinda new. He cited that Operation Desert Storm was a war that basically used smart weapons, advanced communications, and information to kinda make that conflict a war that basically used information as a weapon.

He also defined a new “Power Elite” of a group of people with an intelligence that allows for processing and filtering data, that are able to deal with the information overload that is the Internet and the age of information.

He also cites that this type of intelligence is not specialized, academic, it is the right combination of a broad intelligence verses a specialized one.

Anyways highly specialized thinking was put in its place and discounted. That book speaks the truth today, and it was written decades ago. Not really science fiction, pretty much visionary.

IMHO the age of information has actually made people dumber and more easily controlled and manipulated.

Also a great amount of information on the internet is wrong, not fact, dated or incorrect. Then it is dumbed down for the mass audience and is basically fluff.

My journalism degree helps me get to the facts and undo bias. Data mining is an art. A great amount of critical thinking is required and a flexible filtering to cut through all the nonsense and misinformation.

Rare skills…

Cal

Hi agree Cal and this is scaring...

 

[Calzone]

So I misunderstood the text message on my dumb flip-phone that have today’s date and the reminder for the need of a signature for a FED-Ex delivery of guitar parts.

It was in the early afternoon I went back into my E-mail and hit the link to track my package. I’m glad I waited around, as UPS schedules an estimated delivery and somehow it gets delivered a day early. I thought the culture would carry over. It was about 2:00 PM when I figured today its not going to happen.

“Maggie” and I drove to Adam’s Fair Acre Farms to buy more bird food, another 40 pound bag.

I saw an evil squirrel hanging off the back-backyard feeder. I might have to squirrel proof that feeder. Andrew built a mesh cage around his feeder. The apertures are big enough for birds, but too small for a squirrel.

Wednesday hopefully will be my surgery, a prostatectomy, and for 2-3 weeks I’m not suppose to pick up anything over 10 pounds. Good thing I’m a guitar player and not an electric bass player. An electric bass guitar generally is about 10 pounds, and some are heavier.

So I’ll be hunkering down.

Cal