NYC Journal

[Prest_400]

Hope the best for the surgery and treatment Cal.

Over here my snowbirding plans have about finished. I have shot a good brick of film over the holidays and basically plan to darkroom print over winter.

Geopolitics? Oh wow, the new administration not yet there and it is already very well present. Not looking forward for the times ahead.
Ironically I might or might not have a good deal for a short trip to the US. Airfares for winter are interestingly low.

I really like how you describe the skillset of this information age and agree on the combination of intelligence and critical thinking to navigate it.
At work I was complimented about having some sort of specific ability to search and distinguish information. Amusingly I would say photography and specially reading about old gear in the 2000s has done it.

Have had a teen cousin over and wow, I do feel a generational breach and specially the way they approach social media. More so a dependency and how the TikTok format just latches in the minds of the users... I even know so when ending dumbscrolling during idle times. Also, the algorithms I have noticed that point and loop towards much more commercial content. Anyways, it not also about age as plenty "mature" people are stupid.

 

[DownUnder]

My sense is that Economics is more voodoo than science. Or at least it's not a "hard" science. And (full disclosure: I'm also trained in the arts) I believe that people trained in the arts and humanities have a more global, holistic understanding of the world that often gives them a competence in many fields where the academic training of the experts is so limited that it becomes a hindrance. So yeah, I could see you running the FED. 😉
At the very least, it would be more entertaining than what we get from the little grey bureaucrats who seem to run everything.

It has been said that economics as a science makes astrology respectable.

 

[robert blu]

I m curious, how big are the squirrels in your place?

 

[Calzone]

Robert,

Not as big as the squirrels found in the New Mexico forests that are a different species.

What we have in New York are called grey squirrels. They tend to be about 9-10 inches in body length with a tail equally as long.

There are ones that have all black coats, but this is kinda rare, same grey squirrel though.

One of our squirrels has a tan reddish head.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The bond sell-off is not restricted to the U.S.

England is also experiencing a bond sell-off.

Pretty much higher future interest rates are expected and inflation will be and is a problem. This is a contagion and will likely spread to other economies.

Word on the street is that consumers are buying foreign products in advance and in anticipation of price increases, inflation, and Trump Tariffs. How much current inflation is due to the pre-Trump Tariffs surge/scramble? Maybe this bump is inflating our GNP at the moment, perhaps what I’m suggesting that this is only a momentary/situational moment that will cease and end suddenly soon.

Don’t forget that in anticipation of the tariffs and supply disruptions that many manufacturers are hoarding and stockpiling in anticipation. This bold move of inventory build up to save money also is momentary. It certainly added to the way GNP is calculated.

So here is the beginnings of a boom and bust cycle, or perhaps a recession. The anticipation of higher prices (inflation) is effecting both the supply and the demand. Certainly presently it created unsustainable supply and demand.

Both businesses and consumers have done there share of hoarding, but then there is proposed drastic change that motivated all this behavior. Certainly this bumped up the GNP. I don’t discount these behaviors, and I think the economic effects are significant to amplify and magnify the effects of the proposed tariffs.

So a trend is starting, inflation is not only a problem in the U.S. and other governments also have inflation problems.

The markets were anticipating further interest rate cuts to foster growth and to add stimulus, but that looks like it won’t be happening. That’s the reason why the Trump-Bump got quickly eroded. Monday’s market will be interesting. Will the markets drop again Monday?

42% of Americans made reducing debt their New Year’s Resolution. You know how those resolutions tend to last only a month, kinda like the annual surge in gym memberships.

So here is my milk the cow projection. Say the U.S. economy somehow grows 3%. Not unreasonable with deregulation, new business policies, and further tax favorable conditions that favor businesses. Somehow, technically we avoid a recession…

But what if inflation hovers right around 3%. The latest Michigan Survey reported that consumers anticipate a 3.3% inflation rate in 2025.

So I’m kinda conservative with my projections, but if growth and inflation are in equilibrium do we have a stagnant economy? Also who benefits, and who falls behind?

“Moo” said the Pig.

So I think austerity will begin, and it will have to happen at the household level. Low or lower interest rates are not in the future. The markets underline that expectation. In fact the FED might even have to reverse course and raise rates.

I don’t think the FED can allow the new Trump policies to allow the business directed and target business stimulus to go too far. Stimulus is stimulus, and stimulus is inflationary. I see higher interest rates to counter these new business plans (stimulus), but then there is increased odds of a recession.

My belief is when the FED started cutting rates last year, it kinda was for political reasons and to effect the election. Jerome Powell sent a clear message, and there were headlines that he could not be fired.

So how will all this play out? Likely in a very ugly manner…

Again,”Moo,” said the Pig. Expect to get milked…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Guitar parts delivery now expected in the afternoon. Pretty much this is most of the hardware I need to nearly build out the three guitar bodies I have on hand.

I have 2-3 months of recovery after surgery. They say 3-6, but I’m being overly optimistic.

I have enough to entertain me. A transition of sorts.

I went through my stable and took note of all the guitars that are killers that are so finely tuned. They too require maintenance, so this is another occupation.

Tomorrow is my appointment with my PCP.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I ordered the custom necks in the very beginning of the New Year, and the expected lead times are 5-6 weeks.

So pretty much sometime in February is anticipated delivery.

I decided to go with Jumbo Frets. My style of playing is more along an acoustic sound and attack with heavy strings. I’m not a rocker, although I have a big blues influence. I rarely play above the 15th fret, and with jumbo frets the spacing gets narrow in the upper registers.

Chords above the 15th are kinda impractical. Too cramped for space. This is the realm of single note playing anyways.

I have one guitar, “Korina,” that has a Vee-neck that has some chunk to it and jumbo frets. The fatter chunky necks seem to promote more sustain, more mids, and a more intense woody sound. Slows down the speed a little for some, but not a handicap for me and being a speed demon is not my style of playing.

Actually after seeing Tommy Emanuel’s live performance at a 1200 seat theater right here in Peekskill, I saw how speed fatigued me as a listener. After 2-3 songs I was exhausted and fatigued. Pretty much a dead end for me. Again I’m not a rocker.

I also dove into Roasted Maple necks, as well as Rosewood fingerboards. I have a chunky roasted maple “Fat-Back” neck that has a baseball bat like profile. The idea of roasting wood, sustained baking at elevated temperatures, it to drive off residual moisture, crystallize sugars, and structurally strengthen wood.

I drank the cool-aid, and pretty much believe that wood is like a graphite composite of long stringy fibers bound together with cellulose as a glue. The wood physically gets lighter, and of course the physics of this changes resonance. So this massively oversized neck, although huge, generates a huge sound, and this leaves me not wanting to trim the shoulders to slim down the neck.

The roasted wood becomes stiffer and more stable also. Another benefit is that the necks don’t require any finish to maintain the warrantee. The downside is that dirt and body oils stain the neck. There is a slick feel though that I enjoy.

On the two necks I ordered, they will have rosewood fingerboards. This dampens the attack to a degree, and this will combat the dirt and oil buildups. There is also a different sound and feel to rosewood necks…

Then add on top of this the two Bigsby bridges that I outlined in an earlier post that have the option of “Top-Loading” for a modest dampening effect of the attack to add in some smoothness. I intend on experimenting with steel saddles to blend back in treble response and attack.

Pretty much custom tailoring at a perhaps costly custom level that is kinda elite and exclusive. Maybe akin to say shooting an early Wetzlar M6 that has a cast zinc top-plate that preceded the advent of a Ti M6 by 5 years and somehow is a prototype from Leica.

Or maybe a more extreme example is a Baby-Linoff that pretty much was built without movements, except rise, that pretty much was built as a a “Folding-Linhoff,” a rather novel idea. I own this camera that lacks a serial number that denotes clearly that it was a one-off prototype.

So my taste is drawn to “freaks” and notoriety. I love being not “extra-medium.” I love standing out, but there is also something thoughtful and low-key about my boldness. That’s what makes me cool.

My sound is more about “feel.” I’m a Drama Queen and also vain. Somehow that comes out in my playing. There is “attitude.” Anyways, that is my style, and as far as guitars go perhaps I am emulating our friend Devil Dan, “Crazy is good,” I say. I am kinda expressing that craziness through Telecasters, Santa Cruz’s, and Mirabella archtops.

Pretty much OCD overkill. In fact I’ll kill you twice attitude.

I think I will bring up some more amps from the basement into my guitar room to exploit. Tele’s through Mark Sampson era small Matchless amps (15 watts) that feature now rare and discontinued 2x10 speakers in a combo cabinet is crazy-great. Pretty much bomb-proof clones of Vox AC-15 amps.

So Devil Dan and I have that crazy over-the-top insane thing happening. No “extra-medium” for us. LOL.

Cal

 

[DownUnder]

Ah, squirrels. We don't have any in Australia. Now and then I see one or a pair in the trees in the posh hotel resorts of Sanur, Bali where I hang out when I want to be a little 'naughty' (only in my mind of course, I mean, at my age, come on!).

In eastern Canada in my childhood era, there were so many of them, they were regarded as pests. Native peoples and some poor families ate them. I never had that culinary experience altho' one of my friends who did told me (this was in 1957 or 1958) they tasted like rabbit. Or cat, but let's not go there...

Anyway, if any kind person or persons in North America would like to send me a dozen or twenty, ideally mated pairs as I could then set them up to multiply in the family way and spread them around my neighborhood, I would be most grateful. I could in a pinch even pay half the shipping fee. Best air-freighted, month-long ocean voyage could be quite a disaster, packed up as cargo by the time they got to Melbourne there could be hundreds of them.

Sorry. Over here in Surabaya it has been raining non stop all weekend, and I've been having that sort of two days. Prolific apologies to all.

 

[Calzone]

DU,

Introducing a possible invasive species is not a good thing. All kinda of unintended consequences…

The squirrels out west are unusually large with ear tuffs like an owl. They are mighty cute, but here in the northeast squirrels are smaller, likely due to a smaller less abundant food supply.

Nature has its reasons…

BTW the birds and squirrels in Canada seem friendlier and tamer than their U.S. counterparts. I found this very interesting. Seems like U.S. aggression gets carried over into wildlife.

Earlier in life I had some exotic pets: a fish known as “Snakeheads,” and Brazilian Red Belly Piranas. Both very aggressive fish.

Snakeheads are now an aggressive invasive species here in the U.S.

BTW I had Sonny, Bruno, and Mortician, the Pirana in the same tank as the Snakeheads. Somehow they stayed apart a co-existed for a while, but in a move the Pirana took out the Snakeheads. Obviously my Snakeheads did not become invasive.

Cal

 

[Retro-Grouch]

Ah, squirrels. We don't have any in Australia. Now and then I see one or a pair in the trees in the posh hotel resorts of Sanur, Bali where I hang out when I want to be a little 'naughty' (only in my mind of course, I mean, at my age, come on!).

In eastern Canada in my childhood era, there were so many of them around, they were considered as pests. Native peoples and some poor families ate them. I never had that culinary experience altho' one of my friends who did told me (this was way back in 1957 or 1958) they tasted a little like rabbit. Or cat, but let's not go there...

Anyway, if any kind person or persons in North America would like to send me a dozen or twenty, ideally mated pairs as I could then set them up to multiply in the family way and spread them around my neighborhood, I would be most grateful. I could in a pinch even pay half the shipping fee. Best air-freighted, month-long ocean voyage could be quite a disaster, packed up as cargo by the time they got to Melbourne there could be hundreds of them.

Sorry. Over here in Surabaya it has been raining non stop all weekend, and I've been having that sort of two days. Prolific apologies to all.

You can have all the squirrels you want from my yard. Just be ready to have your car wiring destroyed, your home insulation demolished, and your garden eaten down to the roots. Here in the open parts of NM, we have ground-dwelling Rock Squirrels, big fellas the size of a small cat. Rangers in the parks say they're the most dangerous species there, in terms of attacks upon, and injuries to, humans. This is also in bear and cougar country, so do the math! Sure you want some?
The species Cal refers to is the Albertson's Squirrel. They live in the forests at slightly higher elevations. They do have those big ear tufts, and a local color morph or maybe sub-species in the Sandia Mts. is all black. They look a bit demonic, and many folks call them "devil squirrels". They don't bother anyone, however. Much better manners than our Rock Squirrels.

 

[robert blu]

It seems, according to experts (I'm not) the in Italy american squirrels have been introduced and they are giving many troubles to the native ones, which are smaller, weaker and less aggressive.

 

[Calzone]

So only two times since the 1980’s has the yield jumped on treasuries as much as the FED rate cuts.

Pretty much the 10-year Treasury yield now is greater than the past three rate cuts that the FED did last year.

So inflation expectations really shifted, and this indicated what I said and others predicted that the FED is behind the curve. This also means further rate cuts in 2025 are looking more remote, and otherwise the “stimulas” that inflated the stock markets no longer is.

So pretty much this explains last week’s plunge in the markets that wiped out the Trump-Bump. Also means mortgage rates will remain high, and in fact are now back around 7%. In the end the expectation of lower mortgage rates basically was just a “head-fake.”

Now it becomes more probable and likely higher interest rates to tame inflation that now appears to be more and more entrenched. When consumers make up their mind and predict higher inflation, this is a dead giveaway that in fact inflation has become entrenched.

Fact is the most recent Michigan Survey states that consumers predict an inflation rate of 3.3% for 2025.

Separately they say that some products will go up in price by 20%. Things like computers, electronics, durable goods like appliances.

There goes the economy, compounded by record high debt levels by both the government and households.

So right now the “productivity” projection has been skewed by the advanced buying and hoarding I mentioned that also has been documented by others. This also inflated and boosted the GNP, make it appear like a booming economy that displays an increase in both productivity and GNP, but I say a rather big correction and revision lays ahead because productivity and GNP got a momentary apparent boost that really isn’t real.

People believed the numbers as fact, but did not unpack the numbers to see how they added up. This is a very skewed situation that does not see the true reality of the aforementioned bump that too is just another “head-fake.”

The dust in my old brain is settling, and things get clearer.

Today in talking with “Maggie” the sale of the Baby-Victorian and a move closer to the kid’s came up again, but in a sensible manner. Pretty much downsizing, locking in equity and profiting by eliminating our mortgage came up again. Lower taxes, about half, is a new reason.

The fact is it is best to be open and to have “time as our friend.” Fact is it is best to be open, not have any schedule or deadline, and wait for a great opportunity. Being rigid often never is good.

There are other reasons of course. No need to list them here, but better air quality, being near the Empire State Trailway, and having a waterway that is safe and convenient for a Hobie pedal kayak would be good for me. I would be happy-happy.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Robert,

Those American squirrels fit the description and profile of being thugs, aggressive, and bullies.

I apologize for their rude behavior, but pretty much this bad behavior seems to be valid and true.

Just go across the border to Canada. Both the people and the animals seem kinder, more polite, less entitled, and more civilized.

Cal

 

[Retro-Grouch]

It seems, according to experts (I'm not) the in Italy american squirrels have been introduced and they are giving many troubles to the native ones, which are smaller, weaker and less aggressive.

To be expected. They are, after all, American squirrels, aggressive and invasive. Reliable internet rumors are indicating that the US Army has plans to introduce those same American squirrels into Greenland, very soon, as a prelude to the Anschluss. Resistance will be futile.

 

[Calzone]

My Callahan order was just received. Kinda like unboxing a new Leica, something I experienced 4-times. What a lucky guy.

In order of purchase: Leica Monochrom M9M; SL; SL2; and somewhere in there a CL that was used by me then gifted to “Maggie.”

The SL2 is special to me because somehow I helped design the production camera as part of a Focus Group. How did that happen? Had to sign a NDA and keep quiet about it for 3 years. Oh what GAS I had.

The SL2 still is a great camera, and the “L” glass is crazy-great. I have the 50 Lux and the APO 35 Cron. The 50 Lux sure is massive, but the rendering wide open has this smooth transition from sharp to OOF that is mucho dreamy. Then the APO 35 Cron is just crazy in every way.

The SL2 also has ISIS and is weather proofed.

My big bitch is why didn’t Leica listen to us in the focus group and make or build a Monochrom version. Seems like the SL2 is a bit of a dream camera for me, but Leica annoyed and spited me by not making a Monochrom version.

I did get to handle one of the first SL3’s in the U.S. last year in Washington D.C. Pretty much was more than I need. The SL2 is kinda too much with over 47 MP. Anyways as they say it is the size of the pixel and not the number of that really matters.

On that note my rather primitive M9M at only 18 MP proves the above point about resolution and size of the pixel. For me the M9M Monochrom is so much like a basic analog film camera. I would not want a video feature, and I love that it is so stripped down. Kinda like a naked woman, meaning attractive warts and all.

To me the M9M is for the purist and perhaps will have a cult standing one day. Leica replaced my sensor for free and overhauled my camera. The bad is that they also replaced the leatherette covering that was worn smooth in places from heavy-heavy usage.

Seems like I got preferred treatment and a quick turnaround. I utilized the waiting list, and was issued even a shipping label. Of course this annoyed people who did not get the same level of service.

Anyways my fine art printing that resembles large format printed huge using Piezography in a masterful way shows and displays mucho skill.

So this is another area where I was and became a Beta-Tester for the new Piezography Pro for about a year before it became publically available. Again how did this happen? Why me? Does lightning strike twice? For me it did. Pretty remarkable…

So here I am learning Jazz, and assembling some guitars and doing all kinds of tweaking. Take note that I did not say building guitars. That is at another level that is crazy like my friend Cris. Well that’s another rant…

So off to guitarland.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Moral of the story is even American squirrels are bullies and are not nice or kind.

I know this is an exaggeration, but this also reflects badly for us citizens here.

Cal

 

[ASA 32]

A ground squirrel with cheeks stuffed with nuts, seeds or grains, is a common sight. But a new study provides the first evidence that California ground squirrels also hunt, kill and eat voles. The study, led by the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire and the University of California, Davis, is the first to chronicle widespread carnivorous behavior among squirrels.

Watch out, Calvin!

 

[Retro-Grouch]

A ground squirrel with cheeks stuffed with nuts, seeds or grains, is a common sight. But a new study provides the first evidence that California ground squirrels also hunt, kill and eat voles. The study, led by the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire and the University of California, Davis, is the first to chronicle widespread carnivorous behavior among squirrels.

Watch out, Calvin!

😱

 

[Calzone]

The grey squirrels destroyed all these oak seedlings a few years ago that I was cultivating. Oh-well. Had a half shopping bag of acorns my “Stalker” gave me. I ended up entertaining the grandson as we threw them down the slope in my back-backyard. Likely will become squirrel feed.

I’d rather have squirrels than Voles. I rat trapped a few of these nasty voles. I don’t know if grey squirrels are omnivorous.

I know red tail hawks and the marsh hawks (Northern Harriers) will feed on the rodents, but I kinda love the feral/somewhat tame rabbits.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Partially assembled the Strat body and the Thinline. Now what remains is the Alder 1-piece body that has no finish.

The two custom color bodies really are eye popping, Candy Apple Red, and a faded Sonic Blue that is kinda like a light baby blue that steps a bit towards Tiffany Blue which has a tad of green.

The Strat pickguard has a mint green cast. Back in the day, mid sixties, they used nitrocellulose, and it aged from white to a mint green. Red and green are complimentary colors. The look is stunning.

Right now I used a gold anodized aluminum pickguard on the Thinline. I have a white pearloid pickguard coming in. The anodized guard has a certain cool look, but I think the pearloid looks sexier and prettier. In a ways the anodize looks masculine, and the pearloid definitely feminine.

I await the Strat pickups which might come Tuesday or Wednesday. The pearloid pickguard could be any day now.

The long lead time are the necks which are custom orders. Both necks will be roasted maple, but for the Strat I upgraded to flamed roasted maple. Also this Strat neck will utilize a LSR Roller Nut to have good tuning when using the vibrato.

That Callahan hardware machined from stainless steel is really beautiful. Mighty good looking.

Back to the guitar shop.

I have to order a set of aged knobs, a 5-way switch, and a set of Sperzel tuners.

Happy-happy…

The custom colored bodies look loud if you know what I mean.

Cal