Austin,
I disagree with the statement that the U.S. has not had a unified economic policy since WWII. This disregards “The Apollo Program” where in the 1960’s President Kennedy made it a goal to land a man on the moon. Also like WWII this was related to not only technical dominance, but also economic dominance.
Don’t disregard technical developments and industrial developments that were outcomes from the Apollo Program. The communications revolution like cell phones, microwave ovens that have become household items, personal computers, and to an extend overall advancement in science, computer science, data science and many peripheral jumps that we enjoy today that became household consumer products.
So the idea of industrial policy outlined I totally agree. I also agree that there is a lack of vision as far as infrastructure goes. If you want to understand more about how bad the electric grid is look into how much water and power a “Data Center” consumes.
Pretty much the non operating 3-Mile Island Nuclear Power facility is going to be revived and put back on line to supply power a Data Center. The amount on energy used/required also consumes vast amounts of water. There is a serious demand for water and serious environmental issues also that were overlooked.
The generation of power, its distribution, and the resources required are not really being address, and need to be addressed fully. Kinda like building a massive chip foundry in Arizona that requires vast amounts of water in a state that already has a water supply problem.
Elsewhere I mentioned the Donald’s interest in Greenland is likely it’s supply of fresh water. Greenland’s supply of fresh water is only second to Canada. Pretty much securing a water supply, controlling or cornering the water supply is one way of enforcing economic and political dominance.
So don’t overlook water as a key to life, food production, independence, freedom, and future prosperity. Whoever is able to control the fresh water supply will rule the world.
I don’t disagree that the U.S. has a second chance to emerge as the super power and dominant player in the world.
I support and don’t disagree with the notion that China is already doomed with no chance of ever getting on track. It spent almost all its ammo. Debt is a real problem, the overbuilding is another, the collapse of an export economy has no rebound, mucho failed policies, a demographic population collapse, an aging population…
With China the list is almost endless…
So back to the Apollo Program which was once judged as a complete waste of money, proved to be a cornerstone to the communications revolution, consumer electronics, computer age… that led to the “age of information.”
Fact is that the infrastructure that landed men on the moon in 1969 does not exist today. Just even the metallurgy and industrial capacity to build a big dumb rocket booster of a Saturn 5 rocket does not exist today. That industry I saw and witness being disposed of at the end of the Cold War when Ronald Ray Gun was President.
Pretty much the infrastructure we once had and enjoyed was dismantaled and was destroyed. I’m talking trillions of dollars here that I think would have to be systematically rebuilt over a long period of time. Pretty much on the scale of rebuilding both Germany and Japan after WWII after we destroyed their ability to fight or want to fight.
I think and believe the one decade a collapse will happen in China is about right. I think though the second decade is way wrong. Fact is China with its focus on urbanization allowed food production to drop. China cannot feed itself anymore and is a big importer of food.
I will state again that Arab Spring was caused by hungry children. China has destroyed its own ability to sustain itself, and the rural destruction, the displacement of workers, urbanization, and vast environmental destruction translates into no going back.
Clearly the future of any empire or civilization will be some form of self containment and self sufficiency.
China relies on an export economy, but that already is doomed. It died with free-trade. Fallout from this is that Germany’s export economy is also doomed. German car manufacturing is currently undergoing a collapse. Horrific unemployment lays ahead.
Both China and Germany really have no game plan or Plan “B.” Pretty much chaos.
The Donald has to grow our economy enough to offset the economic damage he intends on performing. Inflation will be a massive problem. I see little or no growth in the future. Building out infrastructure and capitol outlays have a serious delay on return on investment and increases in productivity.
I failed to mention that Japan is another export economy that is suffering. A big trading partner for Japan actually is China. Japan is in the same boat as Germany. Back when we did the Rhine River Cruise about 7-10 years ago, Germany exported lots of precision tooling and machines to China. Now that overcapacity is entrenched in China, with youth unemployment in China hovering around 20% by some reports, that trade is gone for Japan and Germany. Unemployment in Germany is expected to hit 10%.
Understand that Germany is the big player and powerhouse of the European Union. When Germany declines so does the rest of Europe.
So the enabling the U.S did by defending Europe, allowed the Europeans to enjoy a subsidy of sorts where they diverted defense obligations and used vast amounts of capitol to fund social programs and expand their economy will have big repercussions. Understand that this abuse and free-ride has happened since the end of the Cold War.
To everyone’s horror for example Germany is a small shadow of defense capability to defend itself. Clearly the U.S. is no longer going to allow U.S. dependence on defense of Europe. Pretty much the idea of the U.S. defending Europe is a flawed idea, and Europe pretty much will have to defend itself.
I hope the Europeans understand this. They asked for this, and they got a free-ride that lasted for decades that subsidized peace and prosperity for them. Oh-well.
As much as I criticize China I have a lot of bad things to say here about things here in the U.S. The rule of law no longer exists, the rule of the jungle are the times we live in. Expect uncivilized, inhuman behavior and expect violence.
Pretty much we will be fighting each other for food and water in the end. I would not rule out war.
Cal
