NYC Journal

I maintained a dry diaper overnight. Got up a lot to pee though.

My sodium level is below the low threshold of normal. I don’t abuse salt, and I don’t eat processed foods, but maybe I am discovering a water retention problem because of my low sodium level.

I might need to add some salt to my diet for medicinal reasons.

Bloating is less, scrotum is approaching normal size, and only one scab exists where there were 5 incisions. Scarring is moderate, some discoloration of a dark surrounding patch, but that will fade over time.

Remember post-surgery they were concerned about my dropping blood pressure. At one point it was 90/53. The worry was internal bleeding, but it is kinda remarkable that my cardio vascular system remains and displays fitness, even though I am not by my standards fit.

Cal
 
Had a breakfast platter of sorts. Breakfast sausage, egg omelet with scallions, sour dough English muffins.

Added about a half-teaspoon of sea salt to my eggs to see if that helps me retain water.

Gold made an new Intra-Day High of $2830.50. February 2d is when Canadian and Mexican tariffs are scheduled. This new high in gold suggests inflation expectations are increasing.

Let’s see how this gaming plays out… Let the trade wars begin. Not good. Expect slower economies and higher inflation for all those involved.

Old news it costs about 3 1/2 cents to create a penny. In Canada they eliminated their penny as cost savings measure, and they just rounded up prices.

Hedge funds and speculators have hoarded pennies and are warehousing pennies for the day they are no longer deemed currency. Pretty much then it would be deemed legal to melt the pennies to sell as copper and a commodity to perhaps triple or quadruple the value.

I have a glass 5 gallon water jar filled with pennies, nickels and dimes. This is mighty heavy and is my hoard. Modern pennies have less copper content.

Similarly the amount of nickel in a nickel was worth something like 7 1/2 cents. So again it costs more to make a nickel than it is worth.

If pennies get canceled, then nickels are next. Just know that prices will get rounded up, and all this is immediate inflation.

Crazy… Insane? Will this drastic measure happen? I say just a matter of time…

But what does this do to the value of the U.S. Dollar. Remember that inflation causes loss of purchasing power. Suddenly everything becomes more expensive and increases in price.

Anyways the moral of the story here is every penny counts.

I think when pennies cease to circulate that eventually the pennies I have hoarded will become more valuable just for the copper as a commodity, then as pennies are melted down, those that survive will also have some collectible value. You never know…

So obviously the gold increase today is talking and projecting an inflation outlook, and further debasing of the U.S. dollar as a store of value. At a certain point who will buy out bonds/debt?

Already banks are and have been buying gold. Hmmm…

Cal
 
The headline is that in the last quarter of 2024 GDP end on a “Solid” 2.3%. So this is down from 3.1 %.

My only “Solid” spin is that this is a “Solid” decline.

Now if you subtract the 36.2% that is the government spending share of GDP you get under 1.5% GDP.

So more than a third of GDP is government spending, and the fact is this government spending is mostly funded by debt and deficits.

Kinda like me maxing out a credit card to buy things, but also adding this purchasing power as “income.”

Anyways there is distortion here. Do you really think our economy is so “robust” and healthy as they say?

GNP is grossly inflated. Don’t fall for the smoke and mirrors. There is a lot of preaching going on here. Also a lot of lying…

Cal
 
Trade deficit made a new record of 1.2 trillion Dollars in December, as Americans bought and hoarded goods in anticipation of inflation and tariffs.

So how much of the last quarter GDP was this one time bump?

Again rethink the government spending and how that inflates GDP, the 4th quarter one time bump in hoarding, and the expected tariffs and inflation that lays ahead.

2.3%

Less than 1.5%

Whatever number you want to believe is really not that strong or big when you look into the breakdown.

Cal
 
Pre1982 pennies are worth .0268253 or more than 2 1/2 their face value.

At $100K a ton a Nickel is worth 16 cents “Melt-Value.” A Nickel is 25% nickel and 75% copper. A Nickel weighs 5 grams, 1.25 grams nickel, 3.75 grams copper.

In business news business spending they say is down. Hmmm…

Gold started the day under $2.8K, something like $2.792.XX. Today was a big jump on inflationary concerns. This is only a beginning. Things will get scary…

So with the incontenance it varies. I’m learning that bowel movements are the “Q” factor that make or break control. Seems like gas or BM causes the pelvic floor to relax for a release. So pretty much there are danger zones centered around BM.

So sending a man to the moon today is problematic for the U.S. because of loss of industrial capacity.

Read a story about Russian liquid fueled ballistic missile failures that is basically along the lines of the same. The invasion of Crimea stopped manufacturing and technology from the Ukraine which has said infrastructure, technology, and expertise.

The new replacement ICBM pretty much explode on the launch pads. The older ICBM’s are now at their ends of service life.

We are talking big dumb booster rockets here, old technology.

Meanwhile “Maggie’s” I-Phone is dying. Have to go get it replaced. We have an appointment.

Cal
 
“Maggie” saved money, $10.00 a month, with a new plan and an upgrade from an I-Phone 12 to an I-Phone 16.

Was good to get out of the house, but I ended up using the bathroom 3 times in perhaps 45 minutes to 1 hour to prevent any buildup that could lead to a runaway “gusher.”

So outside the house logistics are muy important.

Otherwise a boring quiet day.

In March the debt ceiling happens again. Not good. Something has to give…

Read that 50% of outstanding mortgages are under 4%. I figure that removes lots of existing homes from the market.

This article mentioned that people with mortgages under 4% should only sell if they would have enough equity and cash to downsize and not have a mortgage. Also does not pay to payoff a mortgage if your interest rate is under 4%. Pretty easy to get better/higher returns on cash or investing.

Anyways we figured all that out on our own.

I’m glad that Maggie is settling down, and pretty much is appreciating the value that we have to enjoy. We are in a really great situation and place.

That plane crash is a tragedy. What a loss. Nasty finger pointing and spin. Is there no sense of decency?

Tomorrow we have the grandson. The father and granddaughter have a field trip.

I’m feeling really good about the 1966 C-10 long-bed Fleetside. Pretty much from that C-K rag I discovered that my truck has advanced to being rarer and not so available. The line now for the older truck marketing is 1967 and newer.

Basically my truck got a lot cooler.

So pull the head to get overhauled, replace the cracked windshield, and a new set of tires to just get it to be road worthy as a daily local driver. Lots of cool there because the truck is a survivor, basically 1966 OEM from the factory with 61K miles on the odometer.

A replacement wooden bed and a clear coat to protect and lock in the OED Forest Green that has a wonderful patina, and pretty much I will have a mighty-mighty cool old man’s truck. A really-really pretty truck that remains “period correct” and OEM except for the relocation of the fuel tank to under the bed.

Back in the day the gas tank was in the cab behind the seat. Kinda/almost like sitting on the gas tank.

So maybe I’ll get to this. I can enjoy a truck that is just a local driver for many years and it has its cool. It will be one of those trucks where people will leave notes under the windshield wipers, “If you ever want to sell, call XXX-XXX-XXXX.”

Pleasant dreams…

Cal
 
Gold: open $2796.20; Intra-Day High $2853.20; close $2851.80.

The Orange Glow is promoting 25% tariffs starting Saturday. It is said they will decide if the tariffs will include oil Thursday, meaning tonight.

Expect higher gasoline pricing to filter in over the next few weeks. $3.73 9/10th for Mobil Premium at my local discount station just yesterday.

I expect most of the impact though to be on diesel, as the Canadian heavy crude impacts the diesel and home heating oil side the most. Lighter grades of domestic crude will have to fill the gap, so secondarily gasoline prices will escalate as a byproduct of a diversion of resources.

Also stopping and starting refineries is not so easy. The supply of diesel could become a shortfall that translates into a supply imbalance that will cause diesel prices to inflate.

Understand that the infrastructure to process Canadian heavy crude is near our northern border, and the refining for this crude is specialized. What I’m suggesting is not only a supply disruption, but also logistical problems… Certainly there will be a loss of efficiency and a loss of scale. Guess who will pay the difference?

Understand that here in the U.S. trucking is how goods get distributed, so the burden of higher fuel costs will inflate prices pretty much across the board and in the end will get paid by consumers. Expect inflation…

Will inflation be big enough to slow down the economy: likely. Could it be big enough to cause a recession? My thinking if this bad policy persists more than a quarter, then likely. Don’t forget that 4 out of 5 recessions are caused by high energy prices.

To me I see this as a self inflicted wound. The loss of the “rule of law” was one cut and likely the first self inflicted wound. As they say, “Death by a thousand cuts,” but sadly all self inflicted.

How insane…

The definition of insanity is repeated behavior and expecting a different outcome.

Cal
 
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I expect a lot of drama to be played out in the markets tomorrow, Friday. The threat of including tariffs on energy might be at this point just a “head-fake” to gain concessions.

Let’s see how fast these tariffs get rescinded. Will the inclusion of oil get excluded? Is the delay to include oil a tactic to create drama? Or will it be an exclamation point?

Collateral damage will be U.S. car manufacturers. Assemblies pass and cross the border repeatedly and many times. Hard to see how things could be tracked except for each border crossing. From my reading Ford would suffer more than GM. This alone would create supply shortages and delays.

Right now there kinda is a glut of new cars available… Hmmm…

So now the Germans are thinking of having to set up manufacturing of their cars here in the U.S. Hmmm…

So I’m not so sure the Orange-House, I mean White House will include oil.

Cal
 
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There is talk of higher inflation and slower growth here and by others.

Inflation combined with slow growth is stagflation. This is looking like where we are heading. Inflation makes it so that rate cuts are not the medicine or the cure because it will only fuel further inflation.

Remember that tariffs are inflationary.

Remember people voted for this.

Know that tariffs will slow down economies on both sides of the border and cause inflation also on both sides of the border. No one wins.

The Orange House is trying to get favorable concessions through tariff threats.

Me-thinks that we already are at a tipping point. My thoughts that gold will hit $3K soon once some Orange-Glow trickles into the economy. Inflation is already entrenched, the consumer believes more inflation in the future, and interest rates can’t really come down without adding to further higher inflation.

The only way interest rates can drop is if a collapse happens, but first the Orange-Glow, meaning the policies that get us to a crisis or a collapse.

Also know that the increase in gold means loss of value and faith in the dollar as a store of wealth. So for me the question will gold breach $3K in the first quarter to mark establishment of the beginning of the Orange-Glow. A more than $50.00 jump in gold happened today.

Tomorrow will be interesting. The oil inclusion decision tonight so far is a cliff hangar, and it is past 10:00 PM. This uncertainty certainly will get amplified in the markets tomorrow morning.

When Musk and DOGE begin to cut government spending remember that government spending is 36.2% of GDP, and if we take off that 36.2% off our 2.3% growth we only have less than 1.5% growth. Not so “solid” or strong economy.

Cuts to government spending literally cuts into growth of GDP so another self inflicted wound towards death of a thousand cuts.

Madness and insanity…

Cal
 
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According to the Washington Post, in 2023 Canada exported 97% of its oil to the U.S., and this 97% comprised about half of the U.S. imports of oil.

There was also mention that Canadian trade with the U.S. is 900 billion dollars and that the trade deficit is only 56 billion, and is the trade of oil is removed that actually the U.S. would have a trade surplus instead of a trade deficit.

The amount of illegal immigration was cited as 1.5% and the amount of Fentenal at some fraction of a percent at our northern border.

Still no word on if oil is included. BTW the Canadian oil is sold to the U.S. already at a discount.

So here we face chaos, or could I call this terrorism.

In the short-term and long-term they say inflation and economic slowdown will be worse for Canada than the U.S. They also say in Canada it will have an immediate effect.

Cal
 
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I had a dry night, no accidents or gushers. Only woke up 4-5 times. The bladder was not really full, but I got up and emptied.

I dug into triads last night, and advanced. Smoothness evolved.

Will likely do another breakfast platter like yesterday. The grandson will come over and eat all our food.

Cal
 
Economics 102 here. I majored in it for two years at uni, but that was a century ago. My idol then was JM Keynes. Old fashioned, yes - but still the only one who made any sense in a mad world.

So yes, two days until tariffs click into place. Canada will get slammed with - I believe it's 10% for oil (because, to keep it nice and simple, you lot need the Canuck black juice, end of story), 25% on everything else. higher. (Please to note I adjusted these percentages in an edit after checking reliable news sources.)

This could be all bluster. Your Chief Trumpeter is good at bluster, has it down to a fine art.

If those tariffs are applied, maybe gold will hit US$3000 or higher by mid-end March. Banks everywhere are buying raw gold now, putting it into reserve.

Also 10%-15%-20% inflation overall by end of year. Gas could easily hit $5 a gallon. Which makes Aussies laugh as we pay almost AUD $2 for one LITER. Highway robbery, but that's Oz for you.

Of course the responsible US fed agency will downplay inflation, quoting highly selective stats. As we get spoon fed in Australia. Current Oz inflation (so we are "officially" told) is 2.something%. Real world inflation 12%-15%.

When as the last time an Aussie went to the supermarket for something, and found the price went up by only 2%? Add a zero to this figure, closer to the true situation. As a physical example - the Ryvitas I eat as a basic part of my low carbs diet cost $2.50 in 2020 but these were often discounted to $1.50. The current price is $4.50. Need I say I no longer buy Ryvitas.

Next week could be a real prime time blockbuster. Wait for it, but maybe top up your car gas tank this weekend...
 
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Bluster it seems, but with real world consequences.

The auto and truck makers of the world will all get slammed, but again another self inflicted wound to the U.S. economy. The automotive industry is very big in the U.S. and it is highly involved with cross border trade.

“Death by a thousand cuts, but pretty much self inflicted wounds,” I say.

In March the debt ceiling comes up again, and the timing is right for $3K gold. There are reports of heavy demand for physical gold in New York, and reported delays and bottlenecks for delivery. Perhaps the beginning of a frenzy…

Seems like Canadian oil is not on the tariff table. Pretty much only a tease and a threat.

Cal
 
All I can say is, “Wow.”

Do you believe what is happening? Very nightmarish and surreal…

If Canadian oil is tariffed the northern Midwest and parts of the east and west coasts will see $0.40-$0.70 price increases in gas prices they say. Add onto that the $0.30 increase for the seasonal demand premium.

Here in New York that likely means for me a likely $1.00 a gallon increase for the premium gas I need.

Cal
 
Calzone said:
All I can say is, “Wow.”

Do you believe what is happening? Very nightmarish and surreal…

If Canadian oil is tariffed the northern Midwest and parts of the east and west coasts will see $0.40-$0.70 price increases in gas prices they say. Add onto that the $0.30 increase for the seasonal demand premium.

Here in New York that likely means for me a likely $1.00 a gallon increase for the premium gas I need.

Cal
Click to expand...
Let the wild rumpus start! I would like to believe that the MAGA voters will begin to wake up when all of this hits their wallets, but the Kool-Aid is very potent. I'm sure that they will somehow blame the debacle on DEI and the "woke mind-virus".
Yes, nightmarish. Except we're awake, and it's real.
 
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More self-inflicted wounds. As they say, “Death by a thousand cuts.”

A number floating around is 0.8% drop in GDP. This is likely a worse case number.

I watched a video of this man who joined the Marines at age 20 from rural Mississippi. This was a man of honor who spoke of being a sniper, and that journey. Anyways I had a lot of compassion for this man and what he went through. Dealt a lot with suicide of Marines he knew, he lost about 20 fellow Marines that way.

Did you know that the suicide rate among military recruiters is especially high?

So maybe I should of not watched this 25 minute video, where I got to know this man and understand him. Kinda heartbreaking what this man went through, but then again he displayed great resilience in the end, so on the other hand I’m glad I did.

Much respect for veterans like this man. Revealed was the good, the bad, and the ugly.

Cal
 
The kid’s did not sign any contract on the house yet. Testing revealed that the septic system has to be replaced, and also there is elevated Radon that needs to be remediated.

So the price is firmed, and if the purchase goes through the septic and Radon issues is on the seller.

Pretty much the kid’s are holding firm, and if the deal falls through, oh-well.

Evidently Radon shows up in 50% of the homes with basements in and around Carmel. Granite formations in proximity I figure.

Here in Peekskill the Baby-Victorian is alright with the Radon.

Cal
 
Today we had an episode of “Hell-Boy” from the grandson. He kinda refuses to take a nap when with us, and this spirals into tantrums. He is not so little anymore.

If the kid’s get this house, pretty much it is a 1950’s house that was gutted and insulated, and not done in a cheapo manner. Pretty thorough update, and pretty much everything redone if the septic and Radon mediation is taken care of.

Only 2-bedrooms, but low taxes. Pretty much the kids downsized.

Anyways I hope this works out for them.

I read about a 10% tariff on Canadian oil. Don’t know if this is true or not.

Monday’s opening markets could be crazy. Evil lurks…

La-la-la, and La-la-la…

Cal
 
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