Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I saw the black squirrel a few houses from the Baby-Victorian.
It is kinda fair to say what we have regressed back to 2020, the beginning of the Pandemic. True to say that we have not really recovered fully, and now a new downturn and slowdown.
I have an observation, and that is that Americans seems to forget disasters completely after 5 years. Here is a case and point: Hurricane Sandy destroyed lots of waterfront homes, and after the devastation and destruction prices on waterfront homes went down, but within 5 years they rebounded as in no natural disaster ever took place.
The point is we have been treading water for the past 5 years and are basically in the same place. My understanding of history is that rough seas are ahead. Those that are bloated and weighed down with debt will drown.
The foreclosures that Phil mentioned in the DC Virginia area I think will be widespread.
Keep your ammo dry, but know that many have no ammo…
I am mucho glad I’m retired. Surviving a slowdown that could be very lengthy will take stamina, and a recession could be mighty evil. Either way I see foreclosures, and hopefully not too many banks get effected.
The car auto loan situation was reported last year to be on the scale of the housing crisis of 2007-2008. Liar loans and pretty much anyone could buy a car. There were even crazy low interest rate loans just like the housing crisis.
I’ll report the estimated households that live paycheck to paycheck with no savings.
Cal
It is kinda fair to say what we have regressed back to 2020, the beginning of the Pandemic. True to say that we have not really recovered fully, and now a new downturn and slowdown.
I have an observation, and that is that Americans seems to forget disasters completely after 5 years. Here is a case and point: Hurricane Sandy destroyed lots of waterfront homes, and after the devastation and destruction prices on waterfront homes went down, but within 5 years they rebounded as in no natural disaster ever took place.
The point is we have been treading water for the past 5 years and are basically in the same place. My understanding of history is that rough seas are ahead. Those that are bloated and weighed down with debt will drown.
The foreclosures that Phil mentioned in the DC Virginia area I think will be widespread.
Keep your ammo dry, but know that many have no ammo…
I am mucho glad I’m retired. Surviving a slowdown that could be very lengthy will take stamina, and a recession could be mighty evil. Either way I see foreclosures, and hopefully not too many banks get effected.
The car auto loan situation was reported last year to be on the scale of the housing crisis of 2007-2008. Liar loans and pretty much anyone could buy a car. There were even crazy low interest rate loans just like the housing crisis.
I’ll report the estimated households that live paycheck to paycheck with no savings.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
One report states 65% and another 66% living paycheck to paycheck, but let’s dig in.
Only 33% though say they live paycheck to paycheck where they have no spare cash for savings. This is the foundation of sorts of living paycheck to paycheck in my book.
The top line suggests some people say they live paycheck to paycheck, but in my book that gets defied because this group has the ability to save and likely invest.
Other reports suggest that about half of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
So in my book, some Americans might be saving in 401K’s or 401B’s. Perhaps that might explain those that are saving, and those that cannot. To be open, the spin is these 1/3rd of Americans have no spare cash.
As far as people on fixed income like retiree’s, handicapped or disabled, not so many are comfortable or in a sustainable situation like “Maggie” and I.
I would say that perhaps only about 1/3rd of Americans can afford to retire, the rest will have to work till they die, or will end up in a debt spiral that will eventually take them out.
So here is the harsh reality I think is in store for many, and the many who have lived on debt or above their means will surely get taken down and will get outed.
Seems like an easy way to remember is a kinda “rule of thirds” but not related to photo composition.
In my guesstimate about a third of Americans had a choice about living large and living beyond their means.
Understand that Ray Dalio and I agree that there is an ongoing dramatic change in monetary order going on here. Both Ray and I base our positions in economic history and past policies. Both Ray and I think there are dire consequences ahead.
Know I think Ray is a very smart man, but I disagreed with a lot of his thinking, especially on China. Ray believed China one day would become the world’s largest economy, and he was very pro China.
I believe that bad policies and demographics have doomed China via self inflicted wounds. Pretty much they killed themselves in a way via a thousand cuts. I also have been anti-China since the 80’s.
Remember the cultural genocide, banning of the Dali Lama, and re-education camps (concentration camps) that happen in Tibet?
Ray got all that wrong.
Cal
Only 33% though say they live paycheck to paycheck where they have no spare cash for savings. This is the foundation of sorts of living paycheck to paycheck in my book.
The top line suggests some people say they live paycheck to paycheck, but in my book that gets defied because this group has the ability to save and likely invest.
Other reports suggest that about half of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
So in my book, some Americans might be saving in 401K’s or 401B’s. Perhaps that might explain those that are saving, and those that cannot. To be open, the spin is these 1/3rd of Americans have no spare cash.
As far as people on fixed income like retiree’s, handicapped or disabled, not so many are comfortable or in a sustainable situation like “Maggie” and I.
I would say that perhaps only about 1/3rd of Americans can afford to retire, the rest will have to work till they die, or will end up in a debt spiral that will eventually take them out.
So here is the harsh reality I think is in store for many, and the many who have lived on debt or above their means will surely get taken down and will get outed.
Seems like an easy way to remember is a kinda “rule of thirds” but not related to photo composition.
In my guesstimate about a third of Americans had a choice about living large and living beyond their means.
Understand that Ray Dalio and I agree that there is an ongoing dramatic change in monetary order going on here. Both Ray and I base our positions in economic history and past policies. Both Ray and I think there are dire consequences ahead.
Know I think Ray is a very smart man, but I disagreed with a lot of his thinking, especially on China. Ray believed China one day would become the world’s largest economy, and he was very pro China.
I believe that bad policies and demographics have doomed China via self inflicted wounds. Pretty much they killed themselves in a way via a thousand cuts. I also have been anti-China since the 80’s.
Remember the cultural genocide, banning of the Dali Lama, and re-education camps (concentration camps) that happen in Tibet?
Ray got all that wrong.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
There is a term called the “Protected Class.” I think it was Tobin Smith from the Changewave Alliance that coined this term, but basically it amounts to the top 20% of earners.
Here in New York the salaries are big, so a NYC cop near 20 years in could be in that top 20, or even a hard working blue collar guy.
College professors and Social Workers have surprisingly low salaries. I was kinda “grey” collar being a Cyclotron Engineer for 21 years at a major hospital.
Then “Maggie” became a Social Influencer that became a class changer for her.
So Maggie and I are in the “Protected Class” somehow, even though we are retired. Well maybe not since right now I’m just living on savings and one of my pensions, but certainly when I collect my second pension and Social Security I’ll be in The Protected Class.
How crazy is that? I’m retired.
The keys are very low debt ( low rate mortgage near the record low, and a school loan at 2.125% at the absolute record low).
Pretty much my interest rates are both below the rate if inflation, and I think inflation will linger well beyond 15 years and perhaps 20 or more. I believe in regression to the mean, and one way to minimize debt is through inflation.
BTW inflation can be termed as a devaluation or loss of purchasing power that gets dragged out over time.
That is why gold and real estate are good investments in a time of prolonged inflation.
Of course there is a big difference between being in the top 1% and even the top 10%.
Cal
Here in New York the salaries are big, so a NYC cop near 20 years in could be in that top 20, or even a hard working blue collar guy.
College professors and Social Workers have surprisingly low salaries. I was kinda “grey” collar being a Cyclotron Engineer for 21 years at a major hospital.
Then “Maggie” became a Social Influencer that became a class changer for her.
So Maggie and I are in the “Protected Class” somehow, even though we are retired. Well maybe not since right now I’m just living on savings and one of my pensions, but certainly when I collect my second pension and Social Security I’ll be in The Protected Class.
How crazy is that? I’m retired.
The keys are very low debt ( low rate mortgage near the record low, and a school loan at 2.125% at the absolute record low).
Pretty much my interest rates are both below the rate if inflation, and I think inflation will linger well beyond 15 years and perhaps 20 or more. I believe in regression to the mean, and one way to minimize debt is through inflation.
BTW inflation can be termed as a devaluation or loss of purchasing power that gets dragged out over time.
That is why gold and real estate are good investments in a time of prolonged inflation.
Of course there is a big difference between being in the top 1% and even the top 10%.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
“… top 20% of all Americans earn over $130K in income… That’ over 5 times more than the bottom 20%… more important is that the top 20% also receive over 50% of all income earned in the country…”
So pretty much the top 20% is the “investor-class.” Without an investor class there is no such thing as capitalism. Keep that in mind as we all get poorer, including the investor-class.
In less words, in the future there will be an erosion of capital. This is a burden, but also an opportunity for those that do have capital when this gets played out. Recession, slowdown, collapse… you name it, capital will become scarce.
Keep your ammo dry, live below your means, and know that many have no ammo or are running short.
Of course I assume capitalism survives…
Cal
So pretty much the top 20% is the “investor-class.” Without an investor class there is no such thing as capitalism. Keep that in mind as we all get poorer, including the investor-class.
In less words, in the future there will be an erosion of capital. This is a burden, but also an opportunity for those that do have capital when this gets played out. Recession, slowdown, collapse… you name it, capital will become scarce.
Keep your ammo dry, live below your means, and know that many have no ammo or are running short.
Of course I assume capitalism survives…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Flip-flopping sideways, and now down in the red a half hour before the close.
Anyways, expect lots of what happened today uncertainty, a negative bias, and mucho flip-flopping with a lot of volatility.
I expect a long time for this market to find a bottom.
I have to ask, what if the bottom is a 50% correction from the peak, or even 40%. Don’t be surprised because many surprises and unintended consequences will happen. Be aware that the “Greater Depression” might be happening. A collapse, protectionism, and tariffs are all happening at once.
In the Great Depression it was 1929, then 1932, then 1934: a crash, protectionism, and then tariffs respectfully; not all three at once…
In 1929 there was a lot of use of “leverage.” Debt is a problem today: countries; and households…
Cal
Anyways, expect lots of what happened today uncertainty, a negative bias, and mucho flip-flopping with a lot of volatility.
I expect a long time for this market to find a bottom.
I have to ask, what if the bottom is a 50% correction from the peak, or even 40%. Don’t be surprised because many surprises and unintended consequences will happen. Be aware that the “Greater Depression” might be happening. A collapse, protectionism, and tariffs are all happening at once.
In the Great Depression it was 1929, then 1932, then 1934: a crash, protectionism, and then tariffs respectfully; not all three at once…
In 1929 there was a lot of use of “leverage.” Debt is a problem today: countries; and households…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
On hand I have 37 1.5 cubic foot bags of brown mulch. I also secured two bales of peat moss.
The peat moss is sourced from Canada, so to beat the tariffs… Peat moss is like a sponge and I use it for moisture retention and to loosen the soil.
A 50/50 compost and peat moss mix does the garden good. Mucho organic matter plus great water retention. What every plant needs.
I was able to haul all this bulk in two car loads.
I’m waiting for a compost sale to load up on that.
One thing I learned is that the rooted ends of scallions will regenerate into a plant. Pretty much free scallions from the kitchen mulch if you rescue them and plant them in my 50/50 mix. I already have 4 square feet of scallions planted. Seems like ones I planted in the winter survived and are growing.
Cal
The peat moss is sourced from Canada, so to beat the tariffs… Peat moss is like a sponge and I use it for moisture retention and to loosen the soil.
A 50/50 compost and peat moss mix does the garden good. Mucho organic matter plus great water retention. What every plant needs.
I was able to haul all this bulk in two car loads.
I’m waiting for a compost sale to load up on that.
One thing I learned is that the rooted ends of scallions will regenerate into a plant. Pretty much free scallions from the kitchen mulch if you rescue them and plant them in my 50/50 mix. I already have 4 square feet of scallions planted. Seems like ones I planted in the winter survived and are growing.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
What does it mean when James Dimon of JP Morgan sells 32 million dollars worth of JP Morgan stock?
All I know is that is not good…
The Dow ended the day down more than 155 points down in the red after flopping around all day. The metaphor is of a fish out of water kinda fits. Don’t get caught out high and dry.
So the day ends in a somewhat mild/moderate red screen. I wonder how long before we descend like a staircase.
Cal
All I know is that is not good…
The Dow ended the day down more than 155 points down in the red after flopping around all day. The metaphor is of a fish out of water kinda fits. Don’t get caught out high and dry.
So the day ends in a somewhat mild/moderate red screen. I wonder how long before we descend like a staircase.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I got gas today and Mobil Premium is still pegged at $3.639 a gallon. Not a bad price, but the lower “input-costs” of a cheaper barrel of oil has not translated into a lower price at the pump.
It has been a few weeks with oil being significantly lower, due to an expected economic slowdown, yet the price at the pump remains stuck. Hmmm… What gives?
“Maggie” says she saw a baby deer with no mother in sight down our bluff in the marsh. I have noticed deer poop on my back-backyard lawn. The baby deer Maggie reports is likely a young “yearling” and is no longer a fawn.
From my kitchen door I saw the Northern Harrier swooping over the marsh. The Marsh Hawk is easily identifiable by its white underwings. A marsh Hawk is slightly smaller than a red tail hawk and only has a 4 foot wing span.
In the bond market U.S. debt is on sale, and because prices are down the yield is up. Pretty much Central Banks and Hedge Funds are unwinding this debt big-time. Then there is a big risk premium on ten-year bonds. Like I said, to borrow money to fund our deficit (debt rollover) and to run our country, higher interest rates are coming to draw in the needed/required buyers.
BTW the interest we pay on our deficit is a Trillion Dollars to roll it over. This is like on a credit card making the minimum payment: pretty much the debt gets dragged out and is an economic drain. If you keep on running deficits pretty much eventually you get into a debt spiral where you are just paying the interest and the debt does not go away.
Borrowing money to run a business, or maintain a lifestyle like eating, is going to get more expensive as interest rates on U.S. Bonds escalate. If you think credit card rates or interest rates are high now just wait.
The coupons on the U.S. Bonds do not reflect the highly likely increased future bond interest rates. Also the premium on a 10 year note over a 2 year is a differential of 0.7 as a Term Premium. This is close to 3/4’ers of a percent in interest. Of course this will effect mortgage rates and credit card rates in a bad way.
Can you say, “Slower economy?”
“How long or how steep,” I ask?
Do Americans really know what is going on? I don’t think so…
Debt will equal mucho pain. Then if there is a slowdown this will compound things. Can you say foreclosure if there is a recession?
Anyways the future is being expressed clearly in the bond market: likely higher interest rates is being seen by the Banksters and Fund Managers, and the current buying in the equities markets are Joe Smoe retail investors.
Look for the descending staircase that leads to a bottom. Mucho evil is prevailing. Are you in the “Protected-Class?”
Cal
It has been a few weeks with oil being significantly lower, due to an expected economic slowdown, yet the price at the pump remains stuck. Hmmm… What gives?
“Maggie” says she saw a baby deer with no mother in sight down our bluff in the marsh. I have noticed deer poop on my back-backyard lawn. The baby deer Maggie reports is likely a young “yearling” and is no longer a fawn.
From my kitchen door I saw the Northern Harrier swooping over the marsh. The Marsh Hawk is easily identifiable by its white underwings. A marsh Hawk is slightly smaller than a red tail hawk and only has a 4 foot wing span.
In the bond market U.S. debt is on sale, and because prices are down the yield is up. Pretty much Central Banks and Hedge Funds are unwinding this debt big-time. Then there is a big risk premium on ten-year bonds. Like I said, to borrow money to fund our deficit (debt rollover) and to run our country, higher interest rates are coming to draw in the needed/required buyers.
BTW the interest we pay on our deficit is a Trillion Dollars to roll it over. This is like on a credit card making the minimum payment: pretty much the debt gets dragged out and is an economic drain. If you keep on running deficits pretty much eventually you get into a debt spiral where you are just paying the interest and the debt does not go away.
Borrowing money to run a business, or maintain a lifestyle like eating, is going to get more expensive as interest rates on U.S. Bonds escalate. If you think credit card rates or interest rates are high now just wait.
The coupons on the U.S. Bonds do not reflect the highly likely increased future bond interest rates. Also the premium on a 10 year note over a 2 year is a differential of 0.7 as a Term Premium. This is close to 3/4’ers of a percent in interest. Of course this will effect mortgage rates and credit card rates in a bad way.
Can you say, “Slower economy?”
“How long or how steep,” I ask?
Do Americans really know what is going on? I don’t think so…
Debt will equal mucho pain. Then if there is a slowdown this will compound things. Can you say foreclosure if there is a recession?
Anyways the future is being expressed clearly in the bond market: likely higher interest rates is being seen by the Banksters and Fund Managers, and the current buying in the equities markets are Joe Smoe retail investors.
Look for the descending staircase that leads to a bottom. Mucho evil is prevailing. Are you in the “Protected-Class?”
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
With our bird feeders we kinda had an assembly of grey squirrels. I would see 4-5 of them at a time in our yard.
Then came the Marsh Hawk and I seldom see any squirrels anymore. Hmmm…
I see the same rabbit by the garage as last year.
There was a brief sun squall of pelting rain just before. I’m starting to see lots of trees budding. Easter is almost here.
I see the uncertainty kinda hurting the bond market, and pretty much this I think will lead to a rather lengthy slowdown in the least. If the second quarter of 2025 has negative growth, then we will be officially in a recession. A bump becomes a slump. Then how do you unwind this damage?
So an economy slows down, interest rates ascend to draw buyers to fund government, deficit rollover happens at higher interest rates to compound the debt, consumer credit goes to higher rates, and the FED can’t lower rates without igniting inflation or making inflation worse.
To me it would kinda be a mortal wound to lower rates to stimulate the economy. Clearly the Banksters and fund managers agree with me, or why the big/huge sell off in bonds, and why the big term-premium on the ten-year?
Pretty much what is being “broadcast” are higher interest rates. So readers here on this thread know the future: higher interest rates even if there is a slowdown or recession.
Also know and understand that in a slowdown where there is less trade, less dollars are needed by foreign countries and also less need for Dollars by Central Banks. Storing wealth in U.S. Bonds is no longer safe and no longer are a safe haven.
Don’t forget that one reason why gold prices are accellerating is that dollars have gotten cheaper, and also since dollar assets are being sold off, Banksters and others are using those surplus dollars, or are trying to get rid of them, by buying gold. $3.4K gold soon and perhaps $4K gold in 2025.
Dollar assets are getting sold, both equities and bonds. Again bonds are no longer a safe haven. Another reason to spend your dollars and buy gold.
Anyways there certainly is a lot of uncertainty, but if you read this you kinda know the future, and it is not good. The trap-door has opened, free-fall has begun, and there is no way back at this point. Still there is a long way down.
The ground is approaching…
Cal
Then came the Marsh Hawk and I seldom see any squirrels anymore. Hmmm…
I see the same rabbit by the garage as last year.
There was a brief sun squall of pelting rain just before. I’m starting to see lots of trees budding. Easter is almost here.
I see the uncertainty kinda hurting the bond market, and pretty much this I think will lead to a rather lengthy slowdown in the least. If the second quarter of 2025 has negative growth, then we will be officially in a recession. A bump becomes a slump. Then how do you unwind this damage?
So an economy slows down, interest rates ascend to draw buyers to fund government, deficit rollover happens at higher interest rates to compound the debt, consumer credit goes to higher rates, and the FED can’t lower rates without igniting inflation or making inflation worse.
To me it would kinda be a mortal wound to lower rates to stimulate the economy. Clearly the Banksters and fund managers agree with me, or why the big/huge sell off in bonds, and why the big term-premium on the ten-year?
Pretty much what is being “broadcast” are higher interest rates. So readers here on this thread know the future: higher interest rates even if there is a slowdown or recession.
Also know and understand that in a slowdown where there is less trade, less dollars are needed by foreign countries and also less need for Dollars by Central Banks. Storing wealth in U.S. Bonds is no longer safe and no longer are a safe haven.
Don’t forget that one reason why gold prices are accellerating is that dollars have gotten cheaper, and also since dollar assets are being sold off, Banksters and others are using those surplus dollars, or are trying to get rid of them, by buying gold. $3.4K gold soon and perhaps $4K gold in 2025.
Dollar assets are getting sold, both equities and bonds. Again bonds are no longer a safe haven. Another reason to spend your dollars and buy gold.
Anyways there certainly is a lot of uncertainty, but if you read this you kinda know the future, and it is not good. The trap-door has opened, free-fall has begun, and there is no way back at this point. Still there is a long way down.
The ground is approaching…
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A headline about a country I did not name weaponizing their U.S. bond holdings appeared today. I mentioned this a few days back.
I think the bond market is kinda weak and vulnerable, and pretty much it would not take too much to do something small that might have a bigger outcome like take out a bank of good size.
Big banks usually are big buyers of bonds, so after a closed auction where banks bid on treasuries and bonds, a release of holdings would make those treasuries and bonds worth-less (two-words) with big enough losses it could take out a bank.
It seems like other Central Banks around the world are selling, pretty much there is a mass sell-off by Banksters and Funds, so locking in losses at some point makes a point. Might as well kill a market as an exclamation point. Do harm that is good.
Yes bonds can be weaponized…
Cal
I think the bond market is kinda weak and vulnerable, and pretty much it would not take too much to do something small that might have a bigger outcome like take out a bank of good size.
Big banks usually are big buyers of bonds, so after a closed auction where banks bid on treasuries and bonds, a release of holdings would make those treasuries and bonds worth-less (two-words) with big enough losses it could take out a bank.
It seems like other Central Banks around the world are selling, pretty much there is a mass sell-off by Banksters and Funds, so locking in losses at some point makes a point. Might as well kill a market as an exclamation point. Do harm that is good.
Yes bonds can be weaponized…
Cal
DownUnder
Nikon Nomad
It means they sell when stock price is high, hang on to the cash and wait a while, and then buy low. Like a certain South African-Canadian-varmint billionaire's brother did with a certain stock. Laughing all the way to his broker's and then to the bank.
The oldest trick in the big business book. Amazing to me that so many suckers who aren't in on the game, fall for it.
It's good (and it can be useful to many) to not forget how artificially levered the stock market is, or can be, or could be. Insider knowledge is worth gold. A lot like the money market which the banks deal in, some say maybe with the assistance of their politician friends who leak useful information to them. Dollars go up one day, they sell high. They go down the next week, they buy low. Up again, they dump their holdings. On and on, ad nauseum, ad nauseam, ad profitable. Here in AUS the big banks are especially good at this. But they keep it all quiet.
As for retirement, like Cal I found it can be the best time of your life. Every day is Christmas to me. But it has to be pre-planned and then maintained with care and diligence. And an eye to the future.
Old I may be, but I find I have more than enough time to do everything I want. My secret is to plan to use my time to its best advantage. Busy time, quiet time, relax time, active time, activity time. And nap time.
At age 63 and into a good career (as a design architect-planner with my own agency) I stook stock of my life, and realised how little funded or prepared I was to take the big step when 65 hit.
For two years I bit the bullet. Saved every dollar I could. Loaded up on $1 and $2 coins in jars in the pantry. Did a stock take of all I owned. Saved like mad. Took my gross salary down to a lower tax level by contributing more to my pension fund, which I also stuffed with all the spare cash I could get my hands on. At 65 I took a lump sum tax-free payout when I hit the Retire button. - unsure if this is okay to do in the USA or Canada, but it can be legally done in AUS - and banked it at 5%. Not greedy, 5 is good enough. Compounded it even builds up.
At 65 I sold out and pulled the plug on so-called career. Spent the next six months at home, or close to, fixing up things, getting rid of surplus photo gear and collections I no longer wanted to have and in fact hadn't given any attention to for years. Planned my first return trip to Asia. And got caught up on things I had neglected while putting in a hard slog at the orifice - sorry, I meant the office.
Missed absolutely zilch of anything and everything in my so-called career. The day I walked out of my office with my sale cheque in my hand, it was as if my 20 year career had never existed. A glorious moment in my life.
But then I never defined myself in terms of what job or career I had. Tried hardest to be only me, myself and I.
These days I buy and sell items (moderately) and I earn a small but respectable amount from stock photo sales and other photography. I'm a sort of specialist in what I photograph, so my markets are quite stable if also quite small.
I'm careful to keep my earnings sufficiently low to not hit the level of income which would mean diminishing my government pension, which in AUS reduces by 50 cents on every dollar earned after you go over a certain amount.
Now I live well on a carefully planned budget far lower than what I used to spend on daily things when I was designing. Gone are the cafe lunches, the $6 coffees, the $20 cocktails, the champagne splurges. Now all gone, vamoosed, vanished - and not at all missed.
It helps me to think that I'm on the borderline breadline. That keeps me from throwing away $$ at frivolous stuff. I still buy things (= mostly photo gear) for the fun of it, but I do it knowing that I'll make $$ on it when I eventually sell. Not a lot, but enough to notice the difference I've accumulated as a modest profit.
As Cal shows, it can be done. My life is so much better now, than being on the hamster wheel and throwing away good money at... what?
As always, only my thoughts. Writing this and remembering that YMMD...
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A big lesson if you trade is the money is not real until you sell. Paper profits are not real.
Many times I held onto a stock too long.
In fact the gold miner I mention or brag about is a looser where I could of taken the money and run long ago. The stock got crushed. Junior miners are like that, but like a broken watch the time is right twice a day.
Cal
Many times I held onto a stock too long.
In fact the gold miner I mention or brag about is a looser where I could of taken the money and run long ago. The stock got crushed. Junior miners are like that, but like a broken watch the time is right twice a day.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Do you realize that the U.S. Dollar has lost almost 10% of it’s value since Inauguration Day?
The Bond sell-off is a big deal…
Gold set a new Intra-Day High over $3278.XX.
Cheaper dollars are accelerating prices in gold because gold as a commodity is priced in dollars.
Safer to own gold than U.S. Bonds. This trend is gaining momentum. Some say $4K gold sometime in 2025.
How crazy is that?
Cal
The Bond sell-off is a big deal…
Gold set a new Intra-Day High over $3278.XX.
Cheaper dollars are accelerating prices in gold because gold as a commodity is priced in dollars.
Safer to own gold than U.S. Bonds. This trend is gaining momentum. Some say $4K gold sometime in 2025.
How crazy is that?
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Gold’s new Intra-Day High is $3334.20. A report says it is a “crowded” trade, meaning many banks and funds are buying gold because of uncertainty. They also say it has surpassed the Magnificent Seven as far as being the most crowded trade.
$3.4K gold looks to be happening soon, and next is $4K sometime in 2025. Gold is up 26% this year. This is kinda crazy, but uncertainty surely has risen. Remember that U.S. bonds are no longer a “safe-haven,” that is how much uncertainty there is.
In the 20-20-20-20-20 portfolio of Jared Dillion’s making, gold, cash and real estate would dampen the losses fron equities and bonds. The idea of this portfolio is real diversification and avoiding a drawdown. A kinda “ballast” portfolio that is built for what we are enduring right now.
The 26% gain in gold would offset the losses in equities and bonds.
Perhaps the selling of U.S. bonds is another crowded trade… Connect the dots and pretty much $4k gold later this year is not so crazy. Again U.S. bonds are no longer considered a safe haven. Basically a tipping point for gold…
Looks like a red screen today.
We have the grandson today, and I have lunch with Andrew.
Pretty sure the grandson will want to work spreading the 37 bags of mulch.
I made a mistake Monday by telling him that we would see him tomorrow, Tuesday. When that didn’t happen he was Hellboy on Tuesday with his parents. Oh-well…
The grandson loves getting our full attention. In fact he often pushes his parents out the door wanting them to leave.
Cal
$3.4K gold looks to be happening soon, and next is $4K sometime in 2025. Gold is up 26% this year. This is kinda crazy, but uncertainty surely has risen. Remember that U.S. bonds are no longer a “safe-haven,” that is how much uncertainty there is.
In the 20-20-20-20-20 portfolio of Jared Dillion’s making, gold, cash and real estate would dampen the losses fron equities and bonds. The idea of this portfolio is real diversification and avoiding a drawdown. A kinda “ballast” portfolio that is built for what we are enduring right now.
The 26% gain in gold would offset the losses in equities and bonds.
Perhaps the selling of U.S. bonds is another crowded trade… Connect the dots and pretty much $4k gold later this year is not so crazy. Again U.S. bonds are no longer considered a safe haven. Basically a tipping point for gold…
Looks like a red screen today.
We have the grandson today, and I have lunch with Andrew.
Pretty sure the grandson will want to work spreading the 37 bags of mulch.
I made a mistake Monday by telling him that we would see him tomorrow, Tuesday. When that didn’t happen he was Hellboy on Tuesday with his parents. Oh-well…
The grandson loves getting our full attention. In fact he often pushes his parents out the door wanting them to leave.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Consider that the U.S. dollar has lost 10% of it’s purchasing value since Inauguration Day.
The U.S. dollar just got cheaper, and is being sold at a discount/loss.
Then think that smart money, Banksters, Central Banks, and funds are buying physical gold.
This is now deemed a crowded trade.
What does that tell you? Has a trap-door opened?
Brace yourself for impact, and lookout below…
Pretty much the future is being announced and broadcasted.
Cal
The U.S. dollar just got cheaper, and is being sold at a discount/loss.
Then think that smart money, Banksters, Central Banks, and funds are buying physical gold.
This is now deemed a crowded trade.
What does that tell you? Has a trap-door opened?
Brace yourself for impact, and lookout below…
Pretty much the future is being announced and broadcasted.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Gold has a new Intra-Day High of $3336.00.
A headline suggests that the U.S. Dollar is loosing it’s grip as the reserve currency.
I kinda agree with this, as the bond selling is revealing that the U.S. has debt, deficit and economic uncertainty. Pretty clear that the U.S. Dollar is no longer considered a “safe haven.”
Then there is all the gold buying, and the appreciating price of gold.
In the 20-20-20-20-20 (5x20) portfolio equities and bonds are losers, but gold and real estate seem to more than offset those losses.
The traditional 60/40 portfolio did little to protect an investor. A pretty big drawdown. In the end a 60/40 portfolio was not diversified enough.
Gains in the 5x20 portfolio are locked in with and via rebalancing. People who gambled on a 60/40 are sitting on losses.
Gains in the 5x20 portfolio might be more modest, but you will avoid a drawdown. Basically a 60/40 was not diversified enough.
Cal
A headline suggests that the U.S. Dollar is loosing it’s grip as the reserve currency.
I kinda agree with this, as the bond selling is revealing that the U.S. has debt, deficit and economic uncertainty. Pretty clear that the U.S. Dollar is no longer considered a “safe haven.”
Then there is all the gold buying, and the appreciating price of gold.
In the 20-20-20-20-20 (5x20) portfolio equities and bonds are losers, but gold and real estate seem to more than offset those losses.
The traditional 60/40 portfolio did little to protect an investor. A pretty big drawdown. In the end a 60/40 portfolio was not diversified enough.
Gains in the 5x20 portfolio are locked in with and via rebalancing. People who gambled on a 60/40 are sitting on losses.
Gains in the 5x20 portfolio might be more modest, but you will avoid a drawdown. Basically a 60/40 was not diversified enough.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Gold is hovering near it’s new Intra-Day High, and is up almost $95.00. This is a big move that seems to have momentum.
$3.4K gold will be breached soon.
Cal
$3.4K gold will be breached soon.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Gold’s new Intra-Day High is $3348.50. Gold jumped up over $105.00 so far today.
$3.4K is not far away. This was a number projected for much later in the year, but it is happening now.
Uncertainty is how the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency is being viewed.
This is not good for our debt, interest rates, and our deficit. Who will lend us money and buy our debt?
Loosing our privatized reserve status kinda means our economy is pretty broken. Debt and paying down debt will be a mucho big problem.
Understand that reserve status is a big advantage that seems to have been eroded. Being a reserved currency helped keep interest rates low. There was a demand that kept our interest rates artificially low, but that now seems to be gone.
This is big trouble, and debt will kinda become mucho evil. Expect higher interest rates…
Cal
$3.4K is not far away. This was a number projected for much later in the year, but it is happening now.
Uncertainty is how the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency is being viewed.
This is not good for our debt, interest rates, and our deficit. Who will lend us money and buy our debt?
Loosing our privatized reserve status kinda means our economy is pretty broken. Debt and paying down debt will be a mucho big problem.
Understand that reserve status is a big advantage that seems to have been eroded. Being a reserved currency helped keep interest rates low. There was a demand that kept our interest rates artificially low, but that now seems to be gone.
This is big trouble, and debt will kinda become mucho evil. Expect higher interest rates…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
What a difference 15 minutes makes in the price of gold. A delta of over $10.00.
See the times of the two above posts.
Cal
See the times of the two above posts.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Jerome Powell talks of waiting to lower interest rates.
Now understand the bond sell-off. Future bonds will likely have to offer higher interest rates.
I see a kinda one-way street as far as interest rates go.
Meanwhile the DOW drops 650 points…
Cal
Now understand the bond sell-off. Future bonds will likely have to offer higher interest rates.
I see a kinda one-way street as far as interest rates go.
Meanwhile the DOW drops 650 points…
Cal