NYC Journal

[Calzone]

Do you realize that the U.S. Dollar has lost almost 10% of it’s value since Inauguration Day?

The Bond sell-off is a big deal…

Gold set a new Intra-Day High over $3278.XX.

Cheaper dollars are accelerating prices in gold because gold as a commodity is priced in dollars.

Safer to own gold than U.S. Bonds. This trend is gaining momentum. Some say $4K gold sometime in 2025.

How crazy is that?

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold’s new Intra-Day High is $3334.20. A report says it is a “crowded” trade, meaning many banks and funds are buying gold because of uncertainty. They also say it has surpassed the Magnificent Seven as far as being the most crowded trade.

$3.4K gold looks to be happening soon, and next is $4K sometime in 2025. Gold is up 26% this year. This is kinda crazy, but uncertainty surely has risen. Remember that U.S. bonds are no longer a “safe-haven,” that is how much uncertainty there is.

In the 20-20-20-20-20 portfolio of Jared Dillion’s making, gold, cash and real estate would dampen the losses fron equities and bonds. The idea of this portfolio is real diversification and avoiding a drawdown. A kinda “ballast” portfolio that is built for what we are enduring right now.

The 26% gain in gold would offset the losses in equities and bonds.

Perhaps the selling of U.S. bonds is another crowded trade… Connect the dots and pretty much $4k gold later this year is not so crazy. Again U.S. bonds are no longer considered a safe haven. Basically a tipping point for gold…

Looks like a red screen today.

We have the grandson today, and I have lunch with Andrew.

Pretty sure the grandson will want to work spreading the 37 bags of mulch.

I made a mistake Monday by telling him that we would see him tomorrow, Tuesday. When that didn’t happen he was Hellboy on Tuesday with his parents. Oh-well…

The grandson loves getting our full attention. In fact he often pushes his parents out the door wanting them to leave.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Consider that the U.S. dollar has lost 10% of it’s purchasing value since Inauguration Day.

The U.S. dollar just got cheaper, and is being sold at a discount/loss.

Then think that smart money, Banksters, Central Banks, and funds are buying physical gold.

This is now deemed a crowded trade.

What does that tell you? Has a trap-door opened?

Brace yourself for impact, and lookout below…

Pretty much the future is being announced and broadcasted.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold has a new Intra-Day High of $3336.00.

A headline suggests that the U.S. Dollar is loosing it’s grip as the reserve currency.

I kinda agree with this, as the bond selling is revealing that the U.S. has debt, deficit and economic uncertainty. Pretty clear that the U.S. Dollar is no longer considered a “safe haven.”

Then there is all the gold buying, and the appreciating price of gold.

In the 20-20-20-20-20 (5x20) portfolio equities and bonds are losers, but gold and real estate seem to more than offset those losses.

The traditional 60/40 portfolio did little to protect an investor. A pretty big drawdown. In the end a 60/40 portfolio was not diversified enough.

Gains in the 5x20 portfolio are locked in with and via rebalancing. People who gambled on a 60/40 are sitting on losses.

Gains in the 5x20 portfolio might be more modest, but you will avoid a drawdown. Basically a 60/40 was not diversified enough.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold is hovering near it’s new Intra-Day High, and is up almost $95.00. This is a big move that seems to have momentum.

$3.4K gold will be breached soon.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold’s new Intra-Day High is $3348.50. Gold jumped up over $105.00 so far today.

$3.4K is not far away. This was a number projected for much later in the year, but it is happening now.

Uncertainty is how the U.S. Dollar as the world’s reserve currency is being viewed.

This is not good for our debt, interest rates, and our deficit. Who will lend us money and buy our debt?

Loosing our privatized reserve status kinda means our economy is pretty broken. Debt and paying down debt will be a mucho big problem.

Understand that reserve status is a big advantage that seems to have been eroded. Being a reserved currency helped keep interest rates low. There was a demand that kept our interest rates artificially low, but that now seems to be gone.

This is big trouble, and debt will kinda become mucho evil. Expect higher interest rates…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

What a difference 15 minutes makes in the price of gold. A delta of over $10.00.

See the times of the two above posts.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Jerome Powell talks of waiting to lower interest rates.

Now understand the bond sell-off. Future bonds will likely have to offer higher interest rates.

I see a kinda one-way street as far as interest rates go.

Meanwhile the DOW drops 650 points…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold’s new Intra-Day High $3349.20.

Two more hours till the market close…

I imagine the bond sell-off surging.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold’s new Intra-Day High $3353.90.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

My cholesterol levels are high and I have an anemia.

The anemia causes a lower energy level in me, and I lack stamina. I would not call this fatigue though in my case, which is a side effect and a symptom of Hormone Therapy.

My cholesterol levels is likely from lack of aerobic exercise, and also from eating mucho cheese. I don’t consume hamburgers or red meat. Eggs I cut down on the yokes, but I may just go all egg whites.

So two side effects that need to be monitored.

Did some light gardening before having pizza with Andrew. Kinda feeling tired though.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold was making history today with a gain of 3.5%. New Intra-Day High after New high.

Powell, the Lawyer, gave a good assessment of where we stand. He expressed the tension between the dual mandates of full employment verses inflation. The wait and see makes sense.

But realize that during the pandemic the FED kept interest rates low for too long a time, and the economy overheated, inflation got embedded, and then it took a long time to get inflation to moderate. The FED has a tough job, but I know the FED will get blamed for anything bad that happens…

I see a lot of bad happening. Looks like the U.S. Dollar has lost it’s reserve status, and this points to higher interest rates. The bond sell-off kinda shows the future. Generally when equities fall the flight to safety is bonds, and they get bidded up and yields go down.

Not this time, because holding U.S. Bonds are not looked upon as a safe haven. Right now bonds are in a sell-off because in the future the banks, Central Banks, and funds are all thinking that future interest rates on bonds will be higher.

Also in these interest rate increases will be a bonus “risk premium” because U.S. Dollars not only are worth 10% less since Inauguration Day, there is so much uncertainty that has to be accounted for.

Tomorrow is another day… Gold could breach $3.4K tomorrow…

The U.S. Dollar is becoming worth-less (two-words). Also with less trade due to tariffs, less dollars will be needed in reserves held at Central Banks. With less demand comes a lower price, but in this case less purchasing power.

Do you feel 10% poorer?

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold is still trading and making higher highs. $3371.90. Throughout the day more and more higher highs, and it looks like tomorrow the $3.4K level will get taken out.

This is history in the making. The dollar is slipping from reserve status. Realize that gold got 10% cheaper since Inauguration Day, so for foreign buyers it is on sale. Then you have foreign sellers of U.S. assets like bonds and equities spending their dollars buying gold.

I filed for financial aid on the “inhibitor” prescription that has a monthly out of pocket expense of $206.83 a month. Multiply that out over two years, and it becomes big money.

It will take about 2-days to process my financial aid application, then my prescription will get filled. I’ll be closely monitored to avoid kidney and liver damage every two weeks.

I have a Health Spending Account of almost $10K that is tax deferred money. Originally I put this money aside to cover the upgraded expenses on cataract surgery, but oh-well.

I have to deal with the reality that I’m pretty much assured the next 5 years, but surviving a second 5 years is only 50%. I may never need cataract surgery. Best to use that HSA now…

Anyways it was smart to put that tax deferred money on the side.

Loaded out 14 1.5 cubic foot bags of brown mulch today “Maggie” and I. Still have 24 more bags…

I feel a bit weakened, or maybe depressed.

A lot is going on.

With the radiation treatment I’ll be getting a CT on every treatment for alignment, even though I also will get tattooed. I have scars, but no tattoos, so this will be new. Only three small dots I believe.

I guess I got it in my head that for two years I might be in a weakened state from the anemia, and when the hormone treatment ends about a third of men don’t ever recover any testosterone level.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Tomorrow the markets will be closed here in the U.S. and most of the world. So far today is a mixed market. The DOW is down rather steeply.

Gold is consolidating in a range after yesterday’s big jump.

Let’s see if any panic develops today… Then there are three days where markets are closed.

For health reasons I need to do aerobic exercise to moderate my high cholesterol readings. I got it in my head that diet can only go so far as reducing cholesterol, and that for two years high cholesterol will be a side effect I will have to live with. Exercise is way more effective in controlling cholesterol although diet is a factor.

Anyways I know what I need to do… Two years is a long time…

With the strength training the recovery is displaying less resilience. I am mildly stiff and sore from yesterday’s mild gardening, as if I hammered. I find this limitation alarming.

Also the hormones can effect emotions, concentration and cognition. I’m feeling a bit of that crazy-bitch feeling.

I think I saw the Northern Harrier today from afar. Saw the glint of white, the band by his or her tail feathers.

Today is expected 60 degrees. Planning on a bike ride…

Also disheartening is my increased sensitivity to the cold. At this point in my life I catch a chill easily, and staying warm has become more important. Seems like I have less tolerance.

Good thing is that my A1C levels are smack in the middle of the normal range. A side effect of chemical-castration is diabetes.

So basically this mission of maintaining lean muscle mass and regulating my body chemistry is pretty much on me and is my full-time job, or else a probable downward health spiral can lead to high blood pressure, heart disease, obesity, and Diabetes.

The thing here is consistency…

Energy is a limited resource, so best to do exercise in the morning. This has to be a religion…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Did a half day of gardening. Laid out 24 1.5 cubic feet bags of mulch, dug a 3 foot deep round hole to form a mulch pit, and moved some logs around to landscape the back-backyard.

I made a 30 inch tall cylinder out of some spare root barrier I had on hand. Drilled holes and used pop rivets to join the ends. I have to make a cover, but this mulch pit I installed in the dead end, which is technically not my land. So I expect the volume of my mulch pit to be about 90-100 gallons.

For aerobic exercise we walked to the downtown to have a coffee. About 4 miles round trip.

The yard is looking good.

Tomorrow looks like I have to stop at Home Cheapo to buy some supplies, and then at Adam’s Fair Acres for whole bean coffee. I want to stop by Tractor Supply to see If I can get more of these leather belts that I convert into mucho cool guitar straps that cost only $15.00 each.

Seems like the kids bought their house just before some pretty substantial rate hikes. Gold seems to be consolidating above $3.3K. CitiBank up their guidance to $3.5K in the next 3 months.

In my opinion I think the U.S. Dollar is loosing it’s grip on being a reserve currency. Paper assets like equities, bonds, and even cash, are in danger of loosing lots of value. The game has changed.

Another day like Wednesday and gold could breach $3.5K. It will be interesting how fast or quickly this happens. Momentum will reflect panic, as the U.S. Dollar is no longer looked upon as a “safe haven,” if I am right.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

United HealthCare is having a bad day. Reported is a “surprise” uptick in Seniors getting treatment.

Full Disclosure: United Health Care is my Advantage Plan provider. My treatment is mucho expensive, and even my out of pocket would ruin the finances of most families.

“Maggie” makes a point that Seniors are concerned about MediCare cuts so there is a kinda surge going on before loss of coverage.

My thought is if there is anytime to have Cancer, I am lucky that it was diagnosed last year, and that my treatment is happening now before there are MediCare cuts.

Then I have posted about about a projected spike in mortality and disease due to missed screenings, preventative healthcare, and missed check-ups as a result of the Pandemic.

It took nearly 2 years for Maggie and I to catch up with all the medical care we missed. We were retired, and pretty much there was a log-jam and appointments were hard to book. I figure many did not have the time and resources to do what Maggie and I did.

So as far as public health goes, in my book many will fall through the cracks. Here we are 5 years after the Pandemic, and a spike in healthcare, and unfortunately a spike in mortality will be Covid collateral damage.

So the word “surprise” was in the headline, but I knew years ago that there would eventually be a spike. Check back in this thread, maybe two years back or so…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A pivot is happening. China made a switch and is buying oil from Canada instead of the U.S.

Know that the Canadian dollar is reported to be gaining strength.

About 75% of Canadian oil is exported to the U.S., the the loss for the U.S. is that China is buying Canadian oil instead of U.S. oil.

Know that Canada also exports to Europe.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

If it were not for +7 points on the S&P 500, today would be a red screen at the close with the DOW down over 527 points. The NASDAQ suffered only a mild loss.

Three day weekends are always risky… especially in uncertain times… a lot can happen in 3-days…

Today only 8 pull-ups. Some days 9; some days 8.

I still have to do a max set of push ups after this post. The yard work was enough to tire me.

“Maggie” gave me permission to row 6:00 AM in the morning when I get up. The ERG has a fan and the turbulence gets loud with the power stroke. I have the Concept 2 rower set up in the second bedroom which is my guitar room.

I tend to go to bed early and my bedtime and wakening is very regular. Studies suggest that this regularity is healthy, and in other words a regular sleeping schedule can help lead to a longer life.

My concern though is “Maggie” binge watches HGTV, Baking Shows, and Net Flix too much, and has irregular sleeping patterns that are not healthy. She is aware of the research and the science, and of course a woman with a PhD will never listen to a man…

The idea of not having stress and a simple basic life adding to longevity is a given and is self evident, but some people create stress that is not healthy or needed.

Not good…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Barron’s makes a good counterpoint to my above post.

While UHC and other medical insurance providers took a hit today, the carnage was offset by a surge in drug manufactures.

So still a down day, but it could of been worse.

It will be nice for me to have a 3-day vacation from my “Data-Feed” meaning economic news. I kinda know history is in the making here, and this complexity is a lot to take in and understand.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Stiffness and mild soreness the next morning now is the usual with exercise. I can see why weight gain is a problem, and why laziness can settle in.

I think I hit a tipping point where I actually have lost some weight/baby fat in my torso. Some of this weight gain is offset though by more muscle. Overall I look leaner.

After dinner I’m tired…

I’m thinking of starting some seeds to get a jump on things and to save some money. Gardening is starting.

Cal