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On a beach in Peekskill along the Hudson River I saw 3 and then 4 Turkey Vultures sunning themselves and spreading their wings as if to dry them.

Also came upon a 6-7 foot long black Rat Snake.

“Maggie” is not pleased seeing the ground hog.

There are mucho rabbits and baby bunnies. Multiple litters I suspect. This year the rabbits often feed on the grass and clover on our side and front yards.

Yesterday I saw a pair of doe’s (deer) when I climbed Reynold’s Hills on my bike.

Cal
 
Groundhogs are awesome creatures. If you have a white mulberry, they like the leaves and fruit more than any produce we grow. The groundhogs have become the unofficial mascot of the Woodlands Cemetery where Bethanne and I are volunteer gardeners.
Phil
 
Phil,

I see ground hogs all over Peekskill. Kind of our unofficial mascot here too.

When I negotiate a spoke deal, are you interested in all, some, or have a preference? AJ does have a stockpile, but you might not be interested in black spokes or mountain bike lengths.

There is a possibility that they might get gifted because AJ does not want to put them in a dumpster.

You could possibly be a wheel builder as a side hustle…

Cal
 
Inflation in the EU is down and the thinking is rate cuts ahead. Pretty much the EU will be adding stimulas, meanwhile here in the U.S. we are in a slowdown where our debt loads are a problem.

This lowering of rates will make EU equities go up. Meanwhile the U.S. has a slowdown and lowered economic projections not only for 2025, but also 2026.

I can see an eventual sell off in U.S. equities that will reflect the valuations of a slower economy. Present valuations are mucho high.

The TACO trade seems to be over because now there are permanent structural changes and developments in other parts of the world that encouraged an adjustment.

Adjustments to the chaos and uncertainty has had a response.

BTW a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum is another self-inflicted wound. Eventually no-one listened to the boy who cried, “Wolf.”

I can see a rotation out of U.S. Equities and a bidding up of EU Equities happening.

Seems like the Japanese are buying their own bonds to avoid “currency-risk.” Can’t blame them because policies, loss in dollar value and uncertainty make buying U.S. bonds risky and unattractive.

So a slower economy is the future, and it looks now for a prolonged period. It is likely also that interest rates will have to remain high to draw in bidders to U.S. Bond auctions. Of course this translates into higher interest rates when our debt gets “rolled-over.”

This is the beginning of a “debt-spiral.”

They say the interest on our deficit is 3 trillion dollars already…

Not good…

Cal
 
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Cal, I'll take any stainless lengths. Many thanks in advance for anything! I'm doing so much riding lately because my car needs a new control arm, so I'm going to do both control arms and struts, since the struts need to be removed to replace the control arm, so I might as well upgrade. Once the car is back on the road, we can take a day trip up to Peekskill, I'll bring the Breezer and we could bomb around Blue Mountain. If there is any new stock that is going to wind up in the recycle bin, I'll take it somehow.
I'll follow up more this afternoon.
Phil
 
Phil,

I’ll start hoarding stuff for you. I’m into recycling and saving the planet.

I have to warn you that the anemia took me down in both strength and intensity. Also because I’m prone for any cut to become a bout of cellulitis “Maggie” does not want me to mountain bike.

The only thing I’m good for is long-slow-distance…

I’m just being real about my Cancer, health, and my limitations.

Cal
 
Cal, I'll bring up a fixed gear and we can do some out and back or a loop of your choice. Many thanks for any parts you can hoard for me!
I'll have to tell you about the time myself and my friend Kurt cleaned out a stairwell filled with bike parts. At the direction of my boss at the first shop I worked at in Philly, he said to recycle it all. So on a day off Kurt and picked through maybe $100k worth in mostly old MTB and time trial parts. Kurt got 3 brand new DT/Hugo wheel sets, a ton of handlebars, chains, the list goes on. I got older hubs, rims, demo saddles, stems, bars, just about everything but frames. I still have a box with a few of these bits left, and that was in 2009. I still have a Scott AT 2 handlebar I got that day, that I occasionally think about putting on the Breezer. Kurt paid his rent in full for almost a year on that haul.
Phil
 
The markets are mixed and kinda flat. The report that service jobs are slowing down and that the uncertainty has created a hiring freeze made a low amount of new jobs. Still the markets defy gravity…

Also auto sales first surged and now fell off the cliff. People wisely bought cars in anticipation of higher future prices. If there is a slowdown and financial strain though the purchase might generate remorse…

A smart move might become a dumb move depending on if there is a recession.

Too many negatives to have the markets so optimistic. Some trigger is bound to happen to shuffle the markets. The stock indexes are defying gravity, and they have to fall to the earth.

The indexes are not reflecting a slowing economy…

Cal
 
Phil,

I have no problem hoarding some stuff for you. My house is a bit of a mess anyways, “Se La Vie…”

Basically no inconvenience, and let’s see what happens tomorrow with AJ.

The Yo Eddy he kinda sold to me at a no-brainer price. He pretty much targeted me to be the caretaker for the bike. He is kinda generous that way.

Cal
 
Shorting the U.S. Dollar is currently a popular trade. One way that inflation isn’t being counted is how the purchasing power, by one report I read is now down 10% when compared to a basket of other currencies.

Is not inflation a loss of purchasing power?

Warm flashes are happening more frequently, and this disrupts my sleep. Today I got up an hour later to catch up on lost sleep.

Next week more doctor’s appointments.

Looks like a good day for a long ride. Long slow distance and rolling hills.

I’ll do a separate ride with the Yo Eddy to show it off to AJ. I think he will be surprised by how light it is as a 1x11, and also about the comfortable ride quality. It rides like glued to the road as if on rails. The Yo Eddy has some give built into it, not like the IBIS ride that is overbuilt, stiffer and firmer.

I can see why the Yo Eddy has it’s appeal an never went out of style.

Cal
 
Our deficit for 2024 stood at 6.4% of GDP, and pretty much 3% of GDP is viewed as the “sweet-spot” for a reserve currency because the benefits offset any disadvantages.

We are at a tipping point where our debt level is deemed not sustainable. The average deficit level over the past 50 years is 3.8%.

So one analysis suggests boring bonds should do well over the next decade. They say that perhaps a recession can be avoided, but stagflation, a generalized period of slow growth and higher than normal unemployment can persist.

These are structural reasons for this and that includes tariffs. To be clear policy encourages inflation and certainly a structural change that will be long lasting despite TACO. Know that inflation can be viewed upon as a form of taxation.

I know this is rather abstract, but the money has to come from somewhere, and figure that the government will not be taxing businesses or the wealthy.

Inflation is just another way of diluting debt, is another way of framing it.

So a prolonged period of high interest rates lays ahead. This should be a form of stable returns and not like the stock markets with volatility and portfolio drawdowns. In fact laddering bonds with higher and higher yields is plausible and a kinda safe bet, but realize there is duration risk.

That brings me to the most recent auction in Japanese 30 year bonds. Pretty much there was not so much demand, so the supply in the next auction will be less. I mentioned this “duration” risk and how this will effect bond prices and also means more bonds of shorter duration will need to be printed to fund deficits.

So one reason why in the EU their economies and markets look more positive than in the U.S. is that instead of 2-3% GDP for defense now they are spending about 5%. This of course is stimulus, and this also explains why there markets are up. A free Europe is at risk…

Fact is no empire can exist without a strong military. The U.S. is not the dominant player in NATO it once was…

So now some structural reasons and impacts exist for likely a prolonged period of stagflation here in the U.S. that is kinda self inflicted. Inflation is predicted to peak at 4% and then settle from there. Know that inflation can be framed as a form of taxation. The purchasing power of the currency and dollar assets value is lowered.

Did you see that “haircut” coming? Did you realize you are about 10% poorer.

The big takeaway though is that there are some big structural changes to our economy that frame the future. Slow growth will not be going away any time soon, a period of prolonged sustained inflation lays ahead that could last at least a decade.

Do you believe in regression to the mean? Understand that disinflation under the Greenspan era lasted decades. Pretty much stagnant wages persisted for decades while cheap imports helped maintain a standard of living. Think of longer time-lines like a decade minimum if not decades…

Cal
 
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Wasn't it during the first orange regime that our executive lambasted the Chinese government for artificially devaluing their currency to report that things were better than they really were? Are we not doing the same thing but in a slightly different way?
Phil
 
Today is my "Friday" and I have ridden one of my bikes to and from work every day this week. Sunday 6 miles on the Gillott then 23 miles on the Rotrax. Monday 23 miles on the Miyata. Tuesday 23 miles on the Miyata. Wednesday 23 miles on the Rotrax. Today so far 11.5 miles on the Rotrax. I have increased my protein intake by eating at least one can of tuna per day and my legs feel fantastic. We have rain in the forecast all next week and I'm hoping I can get some motivation to spend at least 30 minutes on the rollers per day because my commute is my usual exercise regimen.
Phil
 
Phil,

Something I need to do on “off” day’s are Burpee’s.

Pretty much a squat thrust combined with a pushup. Max sets of these build strength and intensity.

For added strength do burpee’s with two dumbbells and add a press to the mix.

Cal
 
The U.S. trade deficit is 50% less than last month. Pretty much the hoarding in anticipation of higher prices and tariffs accounts for this sudden drop.

So here we are in June. The U.S. dollar sank 8% and now 10% below the value of a basket of currencies currently. Meanwhile the stock indexes recovered. A 10% or more downward move officially is technically a “correction.” Because the U.S. indexes are priced in dollars, I think I now know and realize that the 10% devaluation of the U.S. dollar translates into a stealth market correction.

Do you feel 10% poorer? Here in the U.S. we are in a bubble of sorts, but in the bigger picture we are in fact 10% poorer because our dollar assets in transaction and in relation to the rest of the world the value of our dollars and our dollar assets are worth 10% less.

Barely more than 5 months elapsed and a 10% loss… Wealth got evaporated in a stealthy manner.

The pre-markets were mildly in the green, but now are mildly in the red. A job report of lower numbers is being downplayed, but realize that a slowdown is underway.

Cal
 
I rode down Washington Street and them 9A into Croton. Perhaps a dumb thing to do because the trip back to Peekskill is a series of hills.

I also turned in the limit screw on the derailleur so the Steel IBIS became a more limited 2-speed with a 48 inch gear low and a 63 inch high. No 33 inch bailout gear as a third gear, so either seated torque or standing and using the bike like a stair master was the ride home.

I also started the ride at 11:00 AM. It got to 94 degrees today in Peekskill. I saw the same roadie on his bike I saw Monday on Washington Street, and on the way north from Croton I stopped by AJ’s shop which is practically on the border of Cortlandt and Croton.

Two guys were helping AJ emptying the shop. I put on some gloves and helped move some industrial steel shelving. I worked with Nico who is the local motorcycle daredevil with stunts posted on U-Tube.

I kinda rubberized my legs, got home to eat, and drove to the bank. Then I rode down to AJ’s shop again to show him the Yo Eddy. AJ really loved it, and was happy to see it. He said that it feels like a modern bike.

I made a comment about the Rock Shox SID holding the air charge since I bought the bike last year. AJ said it was really fresh and not really used.

The shop likely will close in three weeks. AJ gifted me another two sets of Shimano V-brake pads.

I inquired about the spokes, and pretty much he is hoarding them for an art project. AJ also creates these constructions that kinda remind me of Joseph Cornell’s boxes, except they are at times large scale. The shop is kinda empty.

Sorry Phil.

I also learned that I was a bad wingman the last time I was in his shop. AJ is kinda in love, and I thought the woman hanging out in his shop was her. I kinda pumped him up in a Calzone manner, but this is a woman that AJ is trying to distance himself from.

So now I know his true love’s name so I won’t make that mistake again.

Today I also saw a different woman today who I already knew was a stalker because I have seen her in the shop several times. Oh-well.

So pretty much I created some drama for AJ. My talking him up as a proper wingman he appreciated and understood, but this was all done for the wrong woman. LOL.

Anyways, you can’t make this stuff up.

The shop was bought by an electrician.

I too have dosed up the protein, I had a Salmon fillet and a bag of arugula with some feta cheese and a balsamic dressing.

Today was a real bike day. The second ride, though short, was tough because of the earlier ride. I have anemia as a side effect and the hills easily max out my cardio-vascular system.

Still struggling to get below 155 pounds to become a skinny bitch again. Another side effect is bloating…

This weekend is the “Chain Stretcher” a mountain bike race sponsored by the Westchester MBA. It is a big event and lots of fun. Only about two blocks from my house at Blue Mountain Preserve.

Cal
 
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