NYC Journal

[Calzone]

Anyone that has debt that has to get rolled over in the future has a very serious problem, and that includes the U.S. government because it has a huge deficit that exceeds it’s annual GDP.

They expect rate cuts in September because the economy is slowing. A lot depends on the jobs reporting. Some analysts suggest more than one rate cut to help stimulate the economy, but know that a rate cut will have a cost of being inflation.

So when and if there is a rate cut the follow through will be eventually inflation and more devaluation of the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.

I already mentioned that a very large Swiss bank is selling dollars in anticipation of falling value to minimize losses. Dollar assets will eventually correct and devalue.

A fall is coming… Don’t get tripped up.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I am kinda predicting/forecasting history here which is not easy to do. All I can say is a tipping point will eventually happen.

Pretty much in a depression you really don’t have an economy… Severe and violent sudden austerity or bankruptcy. Pretty much a choice will have to be made.

Imagine having credit card debt and rolling that debt over is a death spiral. Know and understand that credit card debt is at record levels. Many people mortgaged their future and maintained their lifestyle using debt. The households that did this will get crushed when the shoe drops…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Wow, a 4.7% jump in price on my junior gold miner in just one day Friday. Tuesday’s open could be really interesting…

The Financial Times says the long-term effect of a non-independent FED is bad, and European Central Banks say it is very negative.

Don’t be surprised if the U.S. Dollar gets a huge sell-off. Remember a Swiss bank has 39% of it’s reserves in dollars and they already are selling those dollars. The report suggests that they are exchanging those dollars for Euros.

If the dollar tanks badly, then risk leads to future high interest rates, or very high inflation. Pretty much a tipping point lays ahead. IMHO a cut in interest rates is the worse of two evils. In my book inflation is the bigger problem. I’d rather have a recession…

I live in a calm place now, and compared to NYC Peekskill is boring. I’m cool with that because if I need stimulation, or excitement, or conflict all I have to do is look at the news. The financial situation of U.S. households and our government certainly is disturbing and alarming.

Can you believe $5K gold perhaps next year? Can you believe bigger cuts than a quarter point per month by the FED through December because of economic trouble? If interest cuts are bigger than expected, there goes the U.S. Dollar, a crash could happen, and then gold would go to $5K.

Don’t forget that paper assets would get revalued. The negative/reverse wealth effect would be a rapid transition. Should I use the term bubble?

Realize that gold is priced in dollars, so if the dollar collapses it becomes a no brainer to trade in the depreciating dollars into gold or some other hard asset. This is how I believe gold could make the huge leap. Seems like it already is happening.

If the U.S. economy goes down like a toilet all paper assets will have to get revalued. A collapse here can easily spread, and there you have a “Greater Depression.”

If China goes into the toilet, pretty much another bad outcome, and the same for Europe.

The E.U. Combined is nearly equal to the size of the U.S. economy. Pretty much a triple threat…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Today I felt depleted. Around noontime I started nodding out. Pretty much I’m defusing, and it may take a while for me to re-energize. The past two months of scheduled stress and appointments, compounded by the last two week family emergency took me down.

I need a gentle life for a bit.

Next week is Paper Matters at PS1 where I use to live. Pretty much a huge book fair. Don’t know if I’m up to heading into the city. I would like to go…

Tomorrow I get blood taken to monitor toxicity from the Inhibitor and the steroid. My already unusual blood readings get even more unusual. I guess because I don’t drink that my liver is not in danger. My kidneys also seem to be doing fine. The hormone treatment is known to cause liver and kidney damage as a side effect.

Also know I am taking the max dose even though I weigh only 155 pounds.

Meanwhile “Maggie” worked in the garden all day. I tweaked and set up a few guitars, and that was all I could do without dozing off.

Today I feel old…

Cal

 

[Particular]

Cal,
you just passed a serious milestone, it is no surprise if your body needs to catch up. Take it easy for few days, and you will be ready to re-focus.

The Printed Matter art book fair is a great event, but it is always really massive. It can be overwhelming and exhausting, but the key is finding the things that interest you, and skipping the rest.
If you go I would plan to go on the Friday, because it gets super crowded on the weekend. I'm definately going. We could go together with the caveat that I just got called up for jury duty starting 9/11, so I may be in a Brooklyn court room all day that Friday.

 

[Calzone]

Somehow I escaped jury duty. I sent in my excuse, but I needed a doctor’s note. I used Cancer as my excuse. The doctor/oncologist mentioned the tiredness/side-effect of why I could not serve. I also had my radiation treatment.

Don’t know if this is permanent.

My junior gold miner is up 4.33% in the pre-market. Let’s see where gold goes, but it is over $3550.00.

Setting up the DeMarino with 11 gauge strings allowed lowering the bridge saddles and now I can whammy away and the guitar stays in remarkable tune. What a cool guitar… Playing last night was mucho fun.

Went to bed early…

Today guitar parts should be delivered. I annoy myself because instead of building out I’m thinking of changing/exchanging guitar parts and experimenting.

Have to head to Carmel to babysit the granddaughter after my blood is drawn.

I love my boring life. I never use to be so stable. “Maggie” seems to be settling into our somewhat rural lifestyle. She is becoming a caretaker of our garden. Seed gathering is next of wild flowers. Our front lawn and side yard has hills, and we have talked of doing way with a lawn and planting wild flowers.

Our Baby-Victorian would kinda look story-book.

Blood will get drawn today, and tomorrow the results will get revealed electronically.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold is very close to $3.6K. This is in advance of any FED rate cuts.

My junior gold miner is making Intra-day higher highs.

Did a two lap walk at Blue Mountain Preserve. The small ponds are alarmingly low in water level. Pretty much close to drying out. No water flows over the waterfall. The walk is not strenuous, but it was enough to tire me considerably.

No guitar part delivery yet.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold breached $3.6K. The volume was below average though. I see the recent move as a big jump, so some basing will happen before the march to $4K continues.

With my guitar parts order came a surprise present: an art book of musician’s and their guitar. The photographer was Ralph Gibson.

I not only was surprised, but also deeply moved. The surprise gift was from a friend here on this thread wishing me well through my Cancer treatment.

Anyways, many thanks, and you made a good day better.

If you saw me you would not know I am ill. Fact is the hormone treatment removed about half my strength and energy. I have another 18-20 months more of hormone treatment.

Good thing I am in good health. One side effect of the hormone treatment is death…

Some of my guitar revamping was just a shuffling. A flamed maple neck I bought on a closeout was for the one-piece alder body that I also bought at a savage discount. Both were bought as no-brainers, but this korina hollowed body tele known as “Woody”really begged to have a visually loud figured neck to be stunning.

The korina body has an oiled finish that shows off the wood, and the neck has a satin clear finish that looks like raw maple. A match in heaven. Then I had on-hand this “Mother-of Toilet Seat” white pearl pickguard. This Tele has a tummy tuck and forearm contours so it is like a Strat in comfort. There is also an “F” hole since it is semi-hollow.

Korina can be clear with no figure, or with mucho black streaking. Of course I have the loud figure with beautiful streaking.

This guitar is an eyeful, visually loud and bold, but I am using low output Fender CS 51 No Caster pickups for brightness and treble response. Korina kinda sounds like mahogany with mucho warmth and sustain. The top-end kinda gets rolled off, and mahogany can be at times too dark and muddy.

Yesterday’s 2 lap walk in Blue Mountain Preserve kinda wiped us out. Both “Maggie” and I are weakened, but we are building up.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Big volume on my junior gold miner and the breakout continues.

Kaa-Ching…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Looks like a mixed market at the open for the indexes.

My blood test results show the same abnormalities that are my new usual. I’m in my lower range of anemia, and that explains my loss of strength and energy. Pretty much I remain in a tolerable range. In a month I’ll have a face-to-face with my oncologist to dig in, but pretty much I’m stable.

Today is a free-day, meaning I have no doctor’s appointments or anything I have to do. A reprieve from obligations and appointments. Luckily I’m retired because treat and work would not be possible.

I wonder if my modest position in the junior gold miner might get to an amount that would pay for the 1966 C-10 suspension, tires and brakes. Pretty much I’m on that path. Kinda exciting sitting on profits. Pretty much my small position is looking to be a “moonshot.”

Cal

 

[Calzone]

“Woody” turned out to be a remarkable guitar. Plays well and emulates smoothness set up with 11’s. The action is kinda slinky.

Have to plug in, adjust the pickups, and see how truly great it is. This guitar has gone through many evolutions and I am finally here. Pretty much the right combination of neck and body along with resonance makes for an exceptional guitar.

Visually a stunning looking guitar. Kinda loud looking…

Had to shim the neck to get the bridge saddle height down. I utilized a spare Bigsby bridge which is where I want to go with this contoured Thinline Tele, so I might have to shim the neck angle more for less friction over the saddles when I go Bigsby.

My bloodwork suggests my liver is being strained. Good thing is I never really was a drinker, or else I would be in trouble. About 30% of Asians do not have the M-zine to break down alcohol. Not drinking likely preserved my youthful looks.

Hormone treatment has liver damage as a side effect.

“Maggie” uses her IPhone to search each diagnostic while she scrolls through my data on my IPAD.

With no appointments or obligations today was like a vacation day. I’m really enjoying it. Tomorrow we have to pick up the granddaughter. Friday we have to pick up the grandson and bribe him with ice cream. The grandson is less scared going to nursery school.

Also know that my favorite guitar is the one in hand. Kinda like cameras…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

No Central Bank holds or accumulates Bitcoin, but they buy gold bullion instead.

Something to think about…

The expected rate cut hinges on the employment report. A rate cut would be inflationary and would promote inflation, but the FED has a dual mandate to control both inflation and unemployment.

Some analysts suggest a surprise bigger rate cut might be in store because of a weak labor market.

Other headlines point to and indicate an economic slowdown, so stimulus will likely be added.

My junior gold miner has larger daily gains than gold.

The recent run up in gold is speculation that inflation will worsen. Understand the big jumps in gold means a decline in U.S. dollar purchasing power.

I ordered two six-packs of guitar strings, but one six-pack is back ordered. I bought from the lowest price seller. I think I will double or triple up an order to stockpile and save money.

I think labor is a problem for these domestic manufacturer’s that highly likely use immigrant labor.

POSTSCRIPT: My guitar strings are made in the USA. No tariffs here unless input costs like on steel or copper. I suspect labor costs made the price jump 30%.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Some simple math: if we suppose a price of gold at $3.6K (gold today trades well over $3.6K) and calculate the percentage of gain to hit $4K gold we get around 11.1%.

Figure that the U.S. Dollar since January 2025 has lost 10%-11% in purchasing power in 8 months. This is relative to a basket of currencies.

Simple addition suggests that gold hitting $4K is not good for most Americans. Inflation will make everyone poorer…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold is sending out a screaming message: Inflation is a problem.

Meanwhile the economy is slowing.

Another headline is that older workers are told to work longer, “but what if there are no jobs?”

The FED is being pressured to lower rates. The U.S. Dollar already has lost 10% to 11% due to tariffs (in 8 months), and tariffs are still not fully priced in.

So here is the “I told you so…”

Will the FED favor unemployment over inflation with rate cuts?

Hold onto your house if you can. Job loss can lead to house loss. Also our economy is a house of cards. A big collapse is possible/probable.

Phil mentioned a housing slowdown around Washington DC with all the Federal firings and lay-offs.

Like in China, self inflicted wounds.

Brace yourself. This could be a big fall.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

In another post I reported that developers in North and South Carolina are providing financing to buyers of their newly constructed homes.

I’ll call this business model out for what it is: “shadow-banking.”

Point is, just like China…

This undercuts existing home sales and bypasses real banks. These developers are ill prepared for losses. I wonder if lower credit standards and lower incomes are tolerated? One way to maintain or inflate a bubble.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

So far the FED’s Beige Book suggests that tariffs are not the cause of inflation.

Hmmm… what is?

Next question is when will the effects of tariffs and higher costs come into play? Some economists suggest in the second-half of 2025, and others say the first-half of 2026.

Is uncertainty causing a supply/demand imbalance where hoarding in anticipation of tariffs is happening? This could explain some of the bullishness on Wall Street. Calzone like hoarding and stockpiling?

Has the devaluation of the U.S. Dollar by government policy (tied to tariffs and trade policy) lead to inflation? Well if I traveled to say Europe my dollars certainly will purchase 10%-11% less.

So if foreign goods are harder to import could a shortage cause inflation? Well maybe if I want to buy an Audi over an American car. Pretty much how much of that 10%-11% devaluation of the U.S. Dollar will come out from my pocket? Probably the full boat…

Electricity costs are going up. Pretty straight forward supply/demand imbalance because AI and EV’s (subsidized with a $7.5K Federal Government “rebate”). I don’t drive an EV, have not received a $7.5K subsidy, but I pay higher electricity costs.

AI has a huge electric and water demand. The more I look into this the more it appears to be unsustainable. Did you know it takes 5-7 years to build a nuclear power plant. Just saying and stating the obvious, we don’t have the infrastructure to support AI, and the money has to come from somewhere. Who will pay to build out the grid?

My guess, the consumer, and not necessarily the AI business.

So where is the inflation coming from? The FED says it isn’t from tariffs.

Hmmm…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

From what I glean Trump instituted a 10% tariff on Canadian imported electricity.

That would explain the recent Con Ed price increases over the next 3 years.

BTW New York is one of the states that imports Canadian electricity.

So if tariffs are not a factor for inflation, perhaps a trade war is.

Also I guess the FED looks upon the inflated price of electricity in New York as just a local event that does not count.

Ontario threatened a 25% tariff on electricity, but that got rescinded. That happened in March 2025.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Today is the granddaughter’s first day in a new Catholic school. She looks cute in her uniform in the IPhone picture.

Later today we have to pick her up.

I’m kinda pleased with my guitar arsenal. Pretty spoiled.

Lisa Cook might be ousted as soon as this Friday, and JP Morgan says gold could go to $5K if the markets loose confidence in the FED.

Then stagflation would worsen because U.S. Dollars and dollar assets will be worth a lot less. The FED was created as an independent entity to fight/control both inflation and unemployment. Stagflation settling in means that the FED failed twice.

Devaluation of a currency at this level usually happens in third world countries that are saddled with huge debt. How did the most powerful and richest country in the world get to resemble a third world country?

Remember that in the year 2000 we had a balanced budget and a surplus. What did we get for our money that was spent that created a record deficit. Debt is akin to slavery…

Plenty of overspending and living beyond our means. In 2007-2008 loses were “socialized” and added to the deficit. I remember in 2003 getting zero APR for two years to buy a Rolex. I remember using a zero APR “convenience check” as a way to open a margin account so I could swing and position trade commodities.

Luckily I sold and closed my margin account when oil first hit $135.00 a barrel. Later that day oil hit $147.00 a barrel and then crashed. The three-to-one margin would of ruined me and wiped me out, but during the credit crunch I was flush with cash when Americans were selling treasures and heirlooms. This was in 2007, then the housing crisis happened…

So here we are again at a pivot point in our economic history. Perhaps the Greater Depression has started.

Tariffs were the third point after the 1929 stock market crash, then there was bad interest rate policy in 1932, and then in 1935 tariffs…

We had 2007-2008, then prolonged low interest rates that promoted spending and living beyond our means living on debt, and now tariffs.

Someone is going to pay. Who do you think that will be?

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold fell below $3.6K, but my junior gold miner is up over 2%.

The ADP employment report says only 54K private sector jobs, and another employment reporter is foreshadowing layoffs increasing.

Friday is another jobs report that might influence the FED, and also a court ruling Friday might compromise the FED’s independence.

Pretty bad for 401K’s and 403B’s. JP Morgan is saying load up on commodities like oil and gold. This advice is in advance of expected inflation or a recession. Pretty much standard procedure.

$4K gold by the end of 2025, and that’s only in 4 months away. $5K gold in 2026, a 20% gain.

Dollar assets will be trash.

Anyone needing to roll-over debt, like credit cards, will get crushed like ants when the shoe drops. Many-many Americans used credit to maintain their lifestyles.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A big part of the economy grew, the ISM sector. This is the service side of the economy, but this surge is due to Calzone like hoarding and stockpiling in an attempt to beat the cost of tariffs.

Could be on one hand a very smart move to take advantage of lower “input” costs, but on the other hand could be mucho dumb to have stockpiled supplies if the economy tanks.

Pretty much a gamble that these purchases in advance of higher input costs due to tariffs, could save mucho money, but then again these warehoused items and the advanced cash flow obligations could lead to horrific losses.

Did you know that warehouses are filled to capacity? Retailers also played this game loading up for the Christmas season. What if it’s bah-humm-bug.

Fact is the economy is slowing, employment is contracting, and consumers are kinda maxed out with debt. The question here is if these warehoused products will ever get consumed.

Jumping the shark is one thing, but jumping the Grand Canyon is another. Evil lurks…

Cal