NYC Journal

[Calzone]

It was a friendly neighbor who lent him the ax. Dave had gone to Home Cheapo and bought a wedge and a sledge, and was fine until the neighbor’s intervention.

Like Clint Eastwood said as Dirty Harry, “You got to know your limits.”

The logs were Locust, a very heavy and dense wood. Resembles steel in strength.

After today’s radiation treatment only 4 more left.

Cal

 

[Phil_F_NM]

The logs were Locust, a very heavy and dense wood. Resembles steel in strength.

Cal

I was looking up various arcana about wood, after getting the bike with the wood rims, and found out that strength to weight, with respect to flexibility, wood is far and away stronger than steel or aluminum. It's similar to titanium, but both have their respective breaking points. This is how wooden rims kept being used by track cyclists all the way into the 1960s. Considering that a wheel also derives its strength from tensegrity, wood may be superior. The only issue is that clincher tires can't be run at pressures above 5 Bar without rigid reinforcing sleeves, now made of carbon fiber. That's still a band aid though. With tubular tires, wooden rims are very hard to beat.
The front wheel of that 1920s bike I'm restoring is one of the lightest wheels I have. Fairbanks-Boston rim, 36 double butted spokes, and an all-steel hub. Still lighter than my front wheel on my Concorde which is a Mavic MA40 laced to a titanium Sampson hub.
Phil

 

[Calzone]

A good question is AI in a bubble, and if so when will it pop?

An economic report suggests that about a third of the 50 states are going sideways (stagnating), a third are in a recession, and a third is growing. The writer suggests if AI pops there goes the economy. Mentioned that the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 is vulnerable because tariffs will have developed their full impact, Overall about a 50% chance of recession.

Know that New York and California account for 20% of GDP. That’s 20% of the economy, and it was mentioned that New York and California are stagnating. My side note is that these are two highly populated states, and immigrants represent or represented a large part of their economies.

IMHO immigration policies are kinda killing the two geese that lay the golden eggs.

Gas is $3.839 at my Mobil local reference station (Premium).

As Data Centers build up it seems electric rates are increasing. Simple supply and demand, but pretty much the general public indirectly is paying for electrical infrastructure that subsidizes AI.

Heard a report that some tech companies actually now sell electricity to add onto the grid. What happens if AI is not cost feasible?

With AI there is lots of jumping the shark. Unemployment will increase because of AI. Already is happening, I know software coder that was laid off recently, basically AI’ed.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I have a headache. I think it is coffee withdrawl, but my first cup of coffee does not seem to help.

Only 4 more radiation treatments.

Tomorrow “Maggie” also has a dermatology appointment. Some cells that were cryogenically burned off her temple is not healing right.

Friday we have to take Dave to a doctor. If things are healed enough the stitches will get removed.

I learned today that the side effects of my treatment follow a bell curve. Most people, about 85%, suffer severe side effects, but I’m in the 5% that kinda don’t really suffer.

I’m back to 156-157 pounds I estimate. I lost some muscle mass, so pretty much I replaced the muscle I lost with fat. Pretty much remained stable as far as weight.

I’m going to take a nap to see if that helps with the headache…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Still, man-sitting. After radiation treatment, and after normalizing my over-hydration, I drive to Carmel to support “Maggie” who man-sits her son-in-law. Understand “Maggie” does not drive.

At this point things are stable, but we continue as an insurance to ensure nothing bad can happen.

This is what real family does. In the background is lots of talk of family that does not matter. In conversation there are people in my family and Maggie’s family that I could say to there face, “Don’t come to my funeral and pretend you care about me.” These are people who don’t really know me.

Let’s put it clearly, there are people here on this forum that know me better than any of my family, and people here actually care more about me. Anyways that’s the truth, and I hate “fake-family.”

BTW you kinda find out who really has your back, who really are your friends, and who really cares or matters to you.

I feel like Blanch in “A Streetcar Named Desire,” I have always relied on the kindness of perfect strangers. I’m being a drama queen, but this is no joke.

There is no shortage of love in my life, but I actually pity the selfish family members who actually are incapable of love. Pretty empty lives. I guess I could be called arrogant because of my attitude, but no apologies from me. I’m not going to give unconditional love away, that is a waste. I’d rather give it to a stranger…

So a term I heard is interesting. There is an introvert, an extrovert, and something called an Ortrovert, described as someone who is so non conformal that they are independent thinkers that are highly creative. Described somewhat as loners because they feel alienated as outsiders, they do not really conform or fit in,

So I am both an introvert, extrovert, and definitely an ortrovert. I can identify as all three. Hmmm… Pretty un usual, but the word unusual kinda applies to me. I kinda standout in a crowd, but then not only do I love being alone, perhaps that is when I’m happiest.

I once told a friend to take the chance to get married. I told him of the real compromises and acknowledged his reservations, but I advised him that getting old alone and not having anyone to share your life with is mucho sad. Kinda unfulfilling and empty.

From what I know he is doing well, and this is a man I admire. He had balls and took great risks. I kinda miss him…

So I’ll just come out and say it that the holidays that are coming up and the related “fake-family” get togethers I think moving forward are played out. I have better things to do, and I don’t want to pretend anymore that family has meaning. Pretty much only a few matter and the rest I don’t want to attend my funeral.

I’m just calling out fake-family as not mattering.

I’m cool with that. I have plenty of people who do matter.

My Prostate Cancer kinda made things evident to me. Blood has no meaning and at this point some family is already dead to me.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The luck of the draw is my side effects are kinda minimal. I have no reason to complain…

One thing that is exhausted is my bladder. It now has no tolerance for any urine. Pretty much I pee or have the urge to pee about ever 20 minutes to a half hour, even after getting rid of the over-hydration condition. Basically I feel the need to be just empty, and when I pee it is like a mini or micro pee.

So I think my bladder is mighty tired. I hope this condition goes away after the radiation treatment.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

France, Europe’s second largest economy, is in trouble.

Not sure what is happening because I’m not a subscriber, but the tease mentions the Prime Minister having to go to austerity mode, and two banks lost billions on their French bonds.

I deduce a debt crisis, and the question is will the debt crisis spread? Will it be contained?

Know it takes some time to see the full impact.

Meanwhile the Donald is messing with our own Central Bank. IMHO any rate cut will fuel inflation here in the U.S.

Inflation makes everyone poorer. Basically purchasing power is/gets eroded.

Austerity in France likely means less government spending and likely higher interest rates.

Here in the U.S. government spending is a significant part of our economy. Then you have government layoffs depressing the economies of Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C. Government policy certainly has increased unemployment, but the job losses are countless because one government job loss leads to other job losses as a local economy slows down.

As I say, “The money has to come from somewhere.”

At a certain point in the future we could be on the same path as France. Perhaps we already are because our record deficit is pointing in that direction.

Bankruptcy is not an option, but that is the future. Austerity is the payback on spend-spend-spend. Anyone with debt will get crushed. French bonds are now big losses for at least two major European Banks. This is a house of cards that could mean or lead to a collapse.

I need to dig in…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

France’s economy has a debt problem that next month might exceed Italy’s debt problem.

Debt levels are past 100% of GDP in Italy and France.

Imagine you have a $100K annual income, and you need all of that $100K to live or maintain that lifestyle, but add on top of that you have $100K in debt. Then add in that interest rates will rise because of risk.

So this analogy exists in France and Italy. I’ll look into where the U.S. stands. I think we are in the same boat as France and Italy.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The number for the U.S. is not good: debt is 136.8% of GDP.

I will use the term “bloat” here. In the year 2000 the U.S. had a balanced budget and actually held a surplus, but that foolishly was squandered. Both parties are to blame.

Pretty easy to see that one day this debt has to be paid back, or else there is a collapse.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Looks like a vote for austerity has to be made in France, and austerity passage is unlikely. This means the present government will fail. A new Prime Minister will get selected.

Looks like the French government will collapse.

This uncertainty of course crashed the French bond market.

Now I understand the headline and tease.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

England’s 30 year bond rate is presently at a 27 year high. Add this on top of France’s troubles.

Only 3 more radiation treatments…

My first coffee is wonderful…

155.6 pounds today after evacuating, but after drinking 16 ounces of water to pre-hydrate.

Over the past few weeks I put in a lot of obsessive thought to kinda nail down what I want to do with the 1966 C-10 longbed. Pretty much keep the present drivetrain that has 61K miles on it. Remove the head and get it updated with hardened valve seats and new valve seals.

I’ll spend $10K to add in a new suspension that lowers the truck to about mini-van height, but the dual-rate rear springs allow it to still handle a half-ton load. Basically still a half-ton truck. A coil-over new suspension looks great, but pretty much the C-10 become more of a car rather than a truck.

More show than go, and pretty much I want my truck to remain a truck. Coil-over would be the way to go if I wanted to do Auto-Cross, but that ain’t me. If I wanted to race, I’d build some crazy car.

Hmmm… The C-10 could tow a race car to the track… Hmmm…

Anyways you know me enough and get the point…

Front disc brakes required with this suspension, and new 18 inch front wheels to accommodate the new big disc brakes. I did all the research on tire size and profile…

I think one of the mucho cool aspects will be all the old school manual controls I will preserve: no power steering; three-on-a-tree manual tranny; stock inline-6; and no power brakes.

Manual tranny’s are becoming rarer, and many drivers don’t have the skills to drive a manual. No power steering is another skill that also requires some upper body strength when parking or slow maneuvers. No power brakes are a more direct feel.

Research and studies have indicated that drivers that have manual transmissions are better drivers. Pretty much they have to be more aware and have to be more mindful and thoughtful.

Then there is the more direct feel of the road with manual steering and a more direct connect of the driver to the machine. This also applies to the manual brakes.

My truck will remain a truck and will be a bit crude, rough and tumble. It will not try to replicate a sports car or a luxury car, it will be pure truck.

I also figured out that if I am right about the 61K miles being original, then I have about 100K left on the existing drivetrain. I also have a stage 2 buildup that includes a Ford 9 inch rear with 12 inch rear disc brakes. Pretty much 4-wheel disc brakes on an approximately 3400 pound vehicle, about the same weight as my luxury compact A4 Audi.

New rear wheels required for the disc brake/axel upgrade, as well as a set of new rear tires. I figure going from 15 inch rims to 18 inch is only a moderate step in going low profile in the wheels. I figure tires front and rear that will be different, but with a 28 inch diameter, not so different and only a bit smaller than 1966 OEM on the front.

The wheels I’m looking at are USA made steel wheels that riff off the 1966 OEM rims. In fact I can use the “dog-dish” 1966 hub caps for the mucho retro look. BTW these OEM hub caps are costly, and I have a complete set that came with the truck.

Know that my OEM 15x6 six-lug rims are worth about $125.00 each on EBAY, and I have 5 or six (came with the truck).

This limbo/down-time has resulted in some obsessive thinking that is moving me forward, and also ensures that I spend my money wisely. Also I figure the value of my truck will inflate considerably, and I can easily get my money back. Kinda like an investment, like fixing up an old house, but it isn’t a house.

I don’t intend of flipping this truck BTW. It was a very lucky find, and it really can’t be replaced. Finding an OEM survivor is a rare find.

Overall investment: $9.5K for a running truck with overhauled rebuilt stock suspension and steering; and then a $10K build.

Of course I can just do the head, get a new windshield ($300.00 original has a crack) and a pair of tires and I have a driver with OEM 4 wheel drum brakes…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I’m a bit of a day dreamer who also like a Chess player thinks three moves ahead.

Always good to be thoughtful and have a plan, also a plan “B,” and even a plan “C.”

Having plans keeps you moving forward. Also it makes you think about what you need and what makes you happy.

OCD traits can be an asset.

BTW do you have plans to help you keep moving forward?

All the best…

BTW over my absence I miss people here. I guess I like to rant…

Cal

 

[Prest_400]

Bankruptcy is not an option, but that is the future. Austerity is the payback on spend-spend-spend. Anyone with debt will get crushed. French bonds are now big losses for at least two major European Banks. This is a house of cards that could mean or lead to a collapse.

Looks like the slow motion crash going on? In some circles there is the discussion of the new administration making the numbers nice, and stock market is up high but not matching reality.
Now inflation is quite noticeable. I have a good income, but that also allows for income inflation plus the costs and inflation itself really are baking itself everywhere.

Having plans keeps you moving forward. Also it makes you think about what you need and what makes you happy.

Sometimes I look back at my previous self, which sometimes was too much of a careful planner. Can say it turned out well, and nowadays I just relax much more.
Also, the pandemic here brought some good advantages such as remote work and flexibility in the digital domain. Was talking to a friend excolleague about lazy slacking that somehow can come with seniority and the right position.

Manual tranny’s are becoming rarer, and many drivers don’t have the skills to drive a manual. No power steering is another skill that also requires some upper body strength when parking or slow maneuvers. No power brakes are a more direct feel.

Research and studies have indicated that drivers that have manual transmissions are better drivers. Pretty much they have to be more aware and have to be more mindful and thoughtful.

Then there is the more direct feel of the road with manual steering and a more direct connect of the driver to the machine. This also applies to the manual brakes.

Interestingly Manual was quite the defacto in Spain, and I think some other European markets too. Had read an article earlier this year that this is actually changing because of EVs and generally a change in the market.
Nowadays am just a biking yuppie and an advantage of parts of Europe is that it's possible to live without a car. Which is a great saving given all the competing hobbies!
Actually in the scale of many other hobbies, photography can be kept quite small, compact and cheap.

 

[robert blu]

At my age, 76, my plan is first to do all what is possible and necessary to stay healthy and fit both physically and mentally.
And thinking that not much time is left it is important to enjoy each moment, each day with my wife Simo, despite minor inconveniences and problems due to age.
Life is short and becomes shorter! Learning to play guitar which I started one year ago is a good exercise (what was it: second fret on third string or third fret on second string? 🙄) and a simple satisfaction, daily walk, daily cooking with good ingredients is part of the plan as it is trying to keep a good social life, not easy here after Covid.
A simple plan !

 

[Calzone]

They say if you don’t plan for retirement you will not have one. Another saying is that it takes about 10 years to plan a retirement.

In my case nothing I planned actually happened, but we did spend many vacations exploring possibilities. What did happen though along the way was a fine tuning of values and needs. The daydreaming and explorations made a space for learning about quality of life, our needs, and what we really wanted.

So in my case my plan was an education and a self awareness.

My retirement came early and as a surprise. Covid was a factor, and SmartAsset.com had a retirement calculator that gave me an understanding of how the U.S. and State taxes work by playing with their retirement tax calculator. I figured out and engineered a strategy that allowed me to retire early at age 62, and also avoid paying taxes.

Unfortunately many get to retire also as a surprise, but they are unprepared. They end up on loosing money because they don’t understand tax liability, penalties, and laws that are meant to take your hard earned money away from you.

We explored Vermont, Savannah Georgia, Phillidelphia, Portland, Seattle…

Because I had a plan basically I was prepared by the surprise retirement. At my hospital they were going to retire my cyclotron, but instead of possibly getting laid-off or retrained I retired. Pretty much management made it easy for me, and I had my way. They covered my scheduled phasing out by Thanksgiving of 2020, and I used banked vacation time to get paid for the rest of the year.

In January 2021 I was forced to receive my hospital pension. I’ll start collecting my Grumman pension when I’m 70 or 72. Pretty much I don’t need the money. Basically at age 70 I’ll be a Bankster trying to game the system again. I find this to be a lot of fun. My journalism background along with my technical research background makes me great for gaming the markets.

I’d be reading the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal cover to cover as my data feed.

BTW my gold junior miner is on a tare. If the FED gets compromised expect gold to be an asset to own physically.

Can you say, “Kaa-Boom?”

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Had an afternoon doctor’s appointment for “Maggie.” She had this wound near her temple and hairline that needed to get looked at that previously had some skin cryogenically treated.

A biopsy was taken, some tissue was shaved off, and the again cryogenically treated.

We will see if this is skin Cancer…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Violating the FED independence can have a big consequence. Instead of lower interest rates just the opposite could happen.

What I’m saying is breaching the FED where it no longer is independent would destroy mucho confidence and would present mucho risk that would have an influence of raising rates.

If the FED is not independent who would buy our bonds? What I’m saying is a risk premium is being created by these government actions.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

After today’s radiation treatment, only 2 more left.

Cool fall like weather in the Hudson Valley. The lawn’s growth has slowed, but I’ll cut it anyways.

My view of the world is narrow, and I live safely in a bubble, but I know the world and our country is in chaos.

I am an optimist, but the future looks dim. I’m not worried about myself and “Maggie.” I worry for others… evil and greed lurks… I feel a crisis approaching and know many will be crushed like ants.

I mentioned the $100K of debt in a hypothetical, and to be clear that isn’t a student loan at the record low of 2.125% or a mortgage under 3%. This $100K I use as just a number for someone kinda maxed out has this debt at a kinda floating rate that like our government cannot be paid in a timely manner; much of this debt is carried and then rolled over.

My personal debt outside of that student loan, that will be paid off at age 69 1/2, and the mortgage is zero. For many compounding interest will be a burden, and for many a death spiral will begin.

I look at all the seniors of retirement age. I see them at the grocery stores, Home Cheapo… Pretty much enslaved by debt and like “Chuck” unable to retire.

They say that only about 30% actually have enough income and savings to retire. Flip that number and about 2/3rds will have to work till they die. No retirement for them.

Our deficit means eventually an austerity lays ahead. Only real advice is keep your ammo dry, and try not to get crushed like an ant when the shoe drops.

I kinda know I am in a bunker that I built. I live below my means. I buy to keep, but I see how U.S. Consumerism woks…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A big Swiss bank with the third largest amount of reserves is diversifying it’s dollar holdings. 39% of it’s reserves are U.S.Dollars and presently it is selling dollars and accumulating Euro’s.

Presently the dollar is down 11% when compared to a basket of currencies.

Do you feel 11% poorer?

This would be a very bad time to travel abroad. Currency rates are highly unfavorable.

Did you know you hot a “hair-cut?”

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Only two more radiation treatments left. After Friday I’m done. My bladder is exhausted.

I’m seeing a trend. I think inflation is becoming policy and that promotes a weak dollar. Trade wise this promotes exports, but like I said everyone gets poorer. Do you realize since the beginning of 2025 you are 11% poorer. Then any rate cut promotes inflation which will weaken the Dollar further.

I tactically am depleting my 403B. This is my bridge to age 70 when I will collect Social Security and perhaps my second pension (I have to take my Grumman pension at age 72). I’m 67 collecting a pension at age 65 that was mandatory.

Point is in anticipation of inflation I spent my money early when it still had purchasing power. Remodeled the house: new luxury kitchen; a new bathroom; a new powder room. Bought two premium cedar sheds. Paid off a used car that had only 16K miles, but was 5-6 years old. Today all the above would of cost more.

The Swiss bank held on to 39% of its reserves in dollars as the U.S. dollar went down from 10% when compared to a basket of currencies to now 11%. Dollars are a depreciating asset and for a bank these losses are bad. BTW the now 11% loss is from the beginning of 2025.

So gold was the benchmark for storing wealth. Central Banks and others have been hoarding gold for a long time. I have been mentioning this for a long time.

Then I promote “one and done” consumption, even if it carries a premium. We bought an Audi because we believe it will outlast any American vehicle. We bought premium appliances that are worth getting repaired and are worth keeping. We don’t buy cheap consumables, we buy things as durable goods. Most of all we recycle.

I also love tangible objects over paper assets because sometime in the future the shoe will drop and I don’t want to have to sit on losses.

I promote having little debt, because any debt will be a burden that gets compounded when the expected turn happens.

Also think about who you need to be responsible for, who really matters, and who you want to be responsible for and take care of. I don’t have ammo to lend or waste.

Sorry to report that a rude awakening lays in wait. We all are getting poorer, and many are not prepared.

In another post I said joking, that pretty much I am lucky that I got Cancer early when I did. MediCare is being attacked, and certainly healthcare which is 20% of our economy will or has to be gutted. Expect the healthcare system to implode.

ObamaCare helped expand the deficit, and pretty much it was expensive and we really could not afford it. I’m kinda pissed because the hospital I worked for had lifetime healthcare benefit for me. That went away with Obama care…

I am concerned that my financial aid for the $30K a year Inhibitor is at risk of getting cut. Today my out of pocket cost is zero dollars because I live modestly on a pension and savings. Next year I have to apply again. My financial situation has not changed, but that financial aid is at risk of going away.

Then again my HealthCare provider might cut benefits to remain profitable. The money has to come from somewhere and I’m hoping that it ain’t me.

See how I’m thinking in a tactical manner. Most dumb Americans don’t know how to play Chess and think 3-4 or even 5 moves ahead.

Because of the huge record setting deficit, over 5 years ago I knew inflation would be a problem. I did the smart tactical moves that basically are fighting for my life. Unlike most Americans, I did not waste my ammo, and I fortified my position.

I posted here as a public service. I can say, “I told you so,” but I also believe in “live and let live.” Like Snoopy and JJ our right wing neighbors, I too fly the don’t tread on me flag, but the difference here is that Snoopy and JJ do not respect the understood meaning of “Don’t Tread On Me” meaning also “live and let live.”

I learned as a performance artist the meaning of “In your own time…”

Seriously, get ready, the shoe is getting closer to dropping. Keep your ammo dry.

BTW remember hungry children caused Arab Spring, and that was due to a strong dollar that exported inflation. Don’t think Arab Spring can’t or won’t happen here.

Cal