NYC Journal

Tomorrow Mike the electrician will come by to wire up the floor so Rick can tile the floor. The tiled shower pan looks awesome.

”Maggie” picked out this retro style pattern that has a deep Forest Green along with white. White fixtures, but with brass for warmth and color.

Things are moving fast. I have the attic, the basement, and the garage to plan out.

I got some advice from Devil Christian on how to level my garage floor and insulate it. It will save me money also to build a subfloor In the half garage that will be my “clean room.”

Cal
 
So contrary to some reports balloons do have some advantages: lower cost than a satellite; they can loiter and manuver; they can because of slow speed can evade radar; they travel in an envelope beyond that of aircraft so shooting them down is not so EZ-PZ; and perhaps most importantly since they are closer to the ground than a satellite the images can be of higher resolution.

There was a comment that our government allowed reports in the press to be the initial announcement to the public. Pretty much this could be looked upon as a probe to test if NORAD detected the balloon and to gain intelligence about response time.

So the takeaway this could almost unmistakably be a probing of military value.

Interesting to perhaps understand why a second “lost” balloon is traversing South America. Understand that NORAD is a system to detect primarily land based Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles. The shortest distance for land based missiles from Russia would be over Canada.

Perhaps the second “lost” balloon that is traversing South America is testing a “flank.”

Anyways I’m pretty convinced that these “lost” balloons have a military intent and are a test of sorts.

Pretty provocative. I wonder what would be an appropriate response. Do we test a new weapon in the South China Sea?

Perhaps tow a target ship and launch a standoff missile to make a new artificial reef?

It will be interesting to know how hard it would be to shoot down or recover intact the remains.

From what I know a Phoenix missile which is old technology has the range over 100 miles, and the way it attacks is upon launching from a F-14 (which can carry 6 Phoenix missiles) the missiles climb to high altitudes upon launch for high speeds and to go hypersonic speeds where they attack an aircraft from above. This is a missile designed to travel in thin or almost no atmosphere as hypersonic weapons do.

BTW the F-14 was the only platform for the Phoenix system.

Don’t believe some of the headlines so readily. We have had hypersonic missiles for decades, and in fact the Phoenix missile displayed an anti ship capability. Also displayed an antimissile missile capability.

So much bad information out there…

Cal
 
An interesting story regarding those WW2 balloons: One of the Japanese WW2 “Fugo” balloons landed on a power line in Washington state and interrupted power to the Hanford reactor making plutonium for the Nagasaki bomb.
 
Joe,

I was unaware of that. Thanks.

Crazy how economic, financial, and technical wars are escalating.

A hot war in military exercises indicates we would win in a conflict over Taiwan, but almost like Mutually Assured Destruction of both China’s and the U.S. military power.

Expensive stand off missiles launched from a stand off distance would have to be used to destroy China’s Navy. Our loses would also be heavy. One simulation suggests we would lose two aircraft carriers.

Another key is to have weapons already in place to defend Taiwan before a hot war starts.

China can’t be happy with the re establishment of a big presence in the Philippines. Japan is increasing military spending…

One report suggests that a single AIM-9M missile (I believe a heat seeking “Sidewinder”) was fired from a F-22 Raptor. No explosion. Maybe to minimize damage to the payload? Old Sidewinders had a range of 2 miles.

Cal
 
One video clearly shows that the missile popped the balloon, and that the “payload” might remain intact.

In another report they say the recovery zone is about 6 miles from land and within our 12 mile territorial waters and that luckily these waters are shallow which will aid in recovery.

Still digging out the smut.

Interestingly that there was mention that there were three other balloon incursions when Donald Trump was President.

Cal
 
Wow.

Interesting how the recovery zone is 6 miles from the coast and exactly in the middle of our 12 mile territorial limit.

Was this a lucky shot?

Pretty surgical if you ask me.

So I guess Montana or a part of Montana, might be highly populated. Or how about Kansas.

All I’m saying is all we needed was a 12 mile circle…

Know that NASA was consulted, so big brains put lots of thought into this.

Simple law of physics: gravity.

So I think about the friction of a light compressed gas getting squeezed, and why a heat-seeking missile hit the exact center of the balloon. If you see the video that shows the missile strike pretty much it hits dead center of the balloon.

Back in the 70’s the Sidewinder had a sensitive enough sensor that the friction of air moving over a control surface created enough friction to create a heat signature for the missile to lock onto and have a high extraordinary kill ratio.

Meanwhile Russian avionics required an engine exhaust to lock onto back in the day.

Not clear if the missile had a detonation, and it seems plausible that it simply popped the balloon.

I will try to find the link. Interesting smut…

Cal

POST SCRIPT: The video is a CNN video and it clearly shows a balloon hit and the pay-load intact falling. A recent posting.
 
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Ironically Cal, this came on the radio yesterday 🤣 - (great Jimmy Webb tune). I miss the 60's:

♪ Up, Up and Away is a 1967 song written by Jimmy Webb and recorded by The 5th Dimension, that became a major pop hit, reaching #7 on the U.S. Pop Singles. The smooth single was well-accepted by adult contemporary stations, peaking at #9 on Billboard's Easy Listening Top 40. A canonical example of sunshine pop, themed around images of hot air ballooning, it cleaned up at the Grammy Awards of 1968, winning for Best Pop Performance by a Duo or Group with Vocal, Other Pop/Rock&Roll/ Contemporary Awards or Instrumental, and the big prizes of Record of the Year and Song of the Year.
Click to expand...

 
Ray,

Thanks for the link.

Speaking of the old days I’m reminded I think of “F-Troop” and the classic line, “It is balloon.”

In New Mexico they have the Santa Fe Balloon Festival.

Of note are the restrictions on Extreme Ultra Violet Lithography equipment made by a Dutch company recently (ASML). This is the next generation of high speed electronics, and of course this technology has a military purpose.

The Dutch established an empire by using windmills to saw lumber so they could build a vast Navy. They also invented Capitolism. This was before the first Industrial Revolution.

The British used steam engines, and poached ship building technology from the Dutch, to become the next empire.

I use this history as an example of how there is a similar Technology War going on. Understand that Taiwan has the chip foundries, technology, and infrastructure that China needs.

The Taiwan Straights is a choke point for the Chinese.

Meanwhile here in the U.S. we have a very deep moat, the Pacific Ocean, and a shallow moat, the Atlantic Ocean as a very great defensive barrier.

I read the book “Poland” by James A. Mitchner. Pretty much a country that has been invaded easily because it lacks defensive barriers. I understand why the Polish people, and the other Baltic States re aligned NATO and are on the side to expel the Russians from the Ukraine.

In my book, even though a war by proxy, the war in the Ukraine is a World War.

Secondarily know that war is inflationary, and the expensive weapons being used and consumed need to be replaced. Clearly warfare has economic implications and is mucho costly.

The war on inflation I could define also as a World War because at this point it effects the entire world.

Understand that Russia has a lot of reserve currencies stockpiled and as a country has limited foreign debt liabilities, as well as a stockpile of gold.

The headlines I see about taming inflation to me are a head-fake. Money has yet to be printed to fund the war in the Ukraine.

In a war of attrition, which the war in the Ukraine has become, there are plays that involve industrial capacity and economic factors. With our high debt levels, and already high inflation, we are not in a great position to afford a war.

Ethnically I’m of Chinese descent (Cantonese), and what I know of my culture is that the expression, “Time is the best weapon” translates to waiting for the opportunity.

We need to be ready with defenses established to contain China. For them to overtake the U.S. or the West (the E.U. Has an economy together that is comparable to the U.S. economy) and establish themselves as a Chinese Empire, they need the technology from Taiwan for military capabilities, and the control of the Taiwan Straights for defense.

What I’m saying is the time is now to get ready, and any delay could be costly.

I do believe Ray Dalit, the founder of Bridgewater Associates (the largest Hedgefund in the world) overlooked the population implosion that has yet to come. The policy to limit Chines families to only one child that endure for 15 years limited population growth, but an aging population and an imploding population I think will doom China’s growth and killed its potential.

One report suggests that China’s 1.4 billion population will be halved by the end of this century. The one child per family created Infanticide, where too many males were born over a 15 year period which is close to a generation (20 years). Basically there is a shortage of females an no way to increase the population.

Also downplayed by Ray Dalio is the unrestrained environmental damage that is unsustainable, and the use and abuse of credit among Chinese consumers.

The way I see it, “Time is the best weapon” also holds true for the U.S. And the west. China’s path of growth eventually leads to a collapse.

To simplify what I am saying is China needs to be contained and let’s let things play out.

Cal
 
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“Maggie” has been to China, and she speaks positively of the transformation going on.

Meanwhile I point out the negative downside and bad policies that are not sustainable. A lot of what I argue is based on economics and history, and I have a Masters degree in journalism, so I use facts. Meanwhile Maggie has a PhD and since she has a history of work with lawyers who’s training is to be adversarial adds to conflicts.

At my old Cyclotron lab there was a utility room where we had an air compressor that was solely dedicated to my machine. Understand that it actually was two compressors designed so it had a second system as a backup to be “fail safe.”

This compressor actuated pneumatic valves for the vacuum system, but pretty much everything that could break did. Bad piston rings, blown pistons, broken crank… In the end my machine was down because both compressors broke, and the redundancy was not enough.

Eventually it was replaced within a few years, and the replacement was no better. Finally engineering got involved a a reliable compressor with redundant backup was secured that actually worked and was reliable.

So I talked with the facility engineers and the mechanics. I was pointed to some pumps that dated back to the 1940’s that are still in use today. Pretty much good stuff that was kept because routine maintenance was all that was needed.

Simple old technology, basic metallurgy, and not high tech at all.

So pretty much the economics of cheap goods are in play here, and basic standards of quality and even basic manufacturing are breached by cheap outsourcing.

I worry how much cheap steel from China and other developing countries might have been used to build high rises and our infrastructure In NYC With the building boom and the rise of a new skyline.

I know that the Chinese cities are not built to western standards, and are about half as durable as U.S. codes.

Now numerous articles are being published about the “Belt and Road” initiatives China has built in developing countries that were funded by Chinese Banksters, and in many cases built with Chinese labor. Pretty much some of these structural problems are simply bad concrete or bad/weak steel.

Today these dams and power plants are crumbling, cracking, and are falling apart. Some projects are so fraught, like a dam/hydroelectric power plant that has a bad design that it pretty much is unusable.

The Belt and Road projects were a way for the Chinese to provide good-will and expand their spheres of influence, but the debt issued is a kind of indenturement and a liability that has to be worked off.

I figure instead of good-will that these projects pretty much are a failure and are now ill-will. This was done on a very ambitious scale, and the damage done will be ongoing.

Structural deficiencies, bad or inadiquite design, bad materials, bad shoddy construction, all done in a speedy manner.

When I was in Philly earlier in the week I had the opportunity to read the New York Times. I saw a photo with a caption labeling the one person surrounded by piles of materials, a sewing machine, and articles of clutter that resembled my messy garage as a “clothing factory.”

Know that I come from a culture that included Grumman when it was the forth largest military contractor in the U.S.; later at Northrop Grumman; and then at two National Labs.

Seems that China is jumping the shark, and the media for many years promoted the “progress” in China in an elevated manner in the same way Maggie looks upon their growth. All I can say is this growth is kinda forced, and I was wise to understand the loss of QC, value, and quality years ago if not a decade ago.

Again, “Time is the best weapon.”

I’m pretty sure China will make many more mistakes. Let’s see.

The state of journalism is pretty bad. Lots of bad or misinformation too, and we are not China.

Cal
 
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Busy construction on two floors of the Baby-Victorian.

The floor tile is laid down in the bathroom. The tile guy is very skilled. A neat and tidy job where the pattern is centered in the shower pan floor drain and minimal cuts, in fact no cuts on the shower pan except for the drain.

The dining room had its plaster and paneling walls taken down. The ceiling “Maggie” and I took down last year in preparation for the in between joist mini-split air handler.

Had to run out to get more grout which will be needed tomorrow. The tiles for the walls will get installed tomorrow also.

An electrician will come by to update the dining room wiring and add a few outlets, rock wool insulation, a vapor retarder, Sheetrock, and then sparkling.

Thursday it is expected to hang and install the fixtures. We might have a functional bath Friday. The glass walls will take about 2 weeks I’m told, but something temporary will get rigged out. Pretty good that within 10 working days so much could get done.

Cal
 
Today was another suicide at the Peekskill train station, the second within a week. They jumped in front of a morning train.

Separately another suicide has happened involving a Metro North train at another station, so three suicides involving Metro North trains in two weeks.

Death by despair it seems.

The first Peekskill Station suicide was a woman who suffered from depression and lost her job. Oddly little news or background on the second suicide. I wonder if the downplay is to lower the Lemming effect that suicide can cause.

Separately a friend of “Maggie’s” sister who had family and teenage kids killed himself in the parking lot of a hospital with a shotgun. This man suffered from depression.

Anyways, I feel disturbed and sad even though I did not know these people. Close enough though to feel the damage.

I learned about today’s Peekskill suicide from one of my contractor’s workers who inquired why there seemed to be 15 cop cars, ambulances, the fire department, and a stopped train.

I mentioned it to Maggie later in the day and the news was scant and the report she did find lacked details.

Cal
 
Fidel,

My ranting continues as the world gets crazier.

Last night I came upon a monster raccoon right in front of my Baby-Victorian as “Maggie” and I pulled up in the Audi. At least a 30 pounder, but likely more. I told Maggie not to get out of the car and got out in Gladiator mode, man against animal, and scared the critter back onto my neighbor’s property.

I’m slowly moving into the “Calzone” where I’m getting ready to start building out a darkroom and studio space.

Also the 1966 C-10 is drawing a lot of attention from the construction guys. Pretty much they say I kinda stole the truck. Mike the electrician showed me his friends 1963 C-10. This is the most desirable C-10 because of the wrap around windshield and the forward angle windshield pillar.

My GC has a tricked out old GTI that is an older chassis pre-traction control that is set up for the track.

More smut is that my dead end neighbor has a 300 ZX that has been sitting in his garage perhaps for decades that has a barnfind potential. My GC is going to look at the car, but there is a sich-E-A-TION of where anything can happen.

The dead end neighbor and his girlfriend are both hoarders, and because their house is run down and an eyesore, of course it kept the price of the Baby-Victorian low. Karen killed herself by drinking herself to death, and the dude she lived with is/was a free loader.

I see that he is on his way out, so anything can happen. The freeloader pretty much is cornered and on borrowed time.

My GC tells me the 300 ZX is in demand as the “Poor Man’s Supra.” I have to look into this more, but you know my hill-billy instinct to pretty much have more cars than I need. By definition they say, “You know you are a hill-billy when half the cars you own don’t run.”

BTW “Don’t tell Maggie.”

Cal
 
Cal,
When we first moved in. took a powerful flashlight out into our backyard, Apple Tree was very noisy. Seventeen pairs of "headlights" glowed up.
A record I think, most were babies. We have skunks and racoons that look for choice nesting spots. Are you going to set up your deep tanks, I just mixed a gallon of Diafine A&B. I've read it lasts until it dries up, so a good long term investment. Running everything right now in D23 1:1. Simple just Metol and Sulphite. I'm also going to restart using PMK+, the concentrate makes hundreds and hundreds of liters so very economical.
 
I kinda figured out a very cool Meet-Up that would happen in the late spring or summer. Evidently at Bear Mountain there are Car-Meet-Ups where all kinds of cars congregate.

On occasion I have gotten caught up in traffic coming off of Bear Mountain and pretty much you see mucho super cars, muscle cars and pretty much so many cars that are noteworthy that it pretty much is a jam-up.

Marty, my contractor says I should attend, especially when I have my Rat-Rod C-10 on the road.

So pretty much a huge congregation not unlike Church, except with cars.

The Audi A4 can handle 4 passengers, and certainly this is a shooting gallery of sorts.

Marty suggests arriving early and leaving early because the traffic jams are really bad. I know from experience this to be true.

I will get more details and info.

I also found out that place where my Barn Find was found, is a Chevy centered/centric garage, and they love Chevies. The previous owner of the C-10 was somehow affiliated with the garage, but now is employed with the town of Croton for their fleet maintenance.

Know that the steering and entire front end was rebuilt on the C-10 and overhauled, except the manual steering box that is leaky. The truck is 57 years old, “Oh-well.”

The cool thing about my C-10 is that other than the gas tank (suicide tank originally located right behind the bench seat in the cab) being relocated under the bed near the rear axel, my truck is stock OEM, so it is a time capsule of sorts in remarkable condition. I believe the 61K on the odometer to be the true mileage as the condition of the truck suggests that it is pretty much a remarkable “barn find.”

I could see someone offering me crazy money because even though I will keep it as a Rat-Rod, someone who wants to restore a truck this one is as close to factory OEM as you can find, and certainly has no Bondo.

A valve job to restore the valve seals that were destroyed by unleaded gas use, a leaky rear oil seal needs to be performed, and likely the clutch needs to be replaced because it might have gotten wet from the oil leak.

I would have to convince “Maggie” the 4-wheel drum brakes are good enough for local driving.

It kinda makes sense to keep the truck Factory OEM as possible because there is a lot of value added and mojo that promotes it as a true barn find.

I forgot, that the wooden bed needs to be replaced. Pretty much rotted away after 57 years.

I love the patina of the deep green paint, and because this vehicle was ordered with mucho options that suggest it was used by a hunter as a “camper” (holes in the cab for a gun rack) it has this retro vibe because of a small rear window of a 50’s truck, even though it is a 1966.

Cal
 
Nokton48 said:
Cal,
When we first moved in. took a powerful flashlight out into our backyard, Apple Tree was very noisy. Seventeen pairs of "headlights" glowed up.
A record I think, most were babies. We have skunks and racoons that look for choice nesting spots. Are you going to set up your deep tanks, I just mixed a gallon of Diafine A&B. I've read it lasts until it dries up, so a good long term investment. Running everything right now in D23 1:1. Simple just Metol and Sulphite. I'm also going to restart using PMK+, the concentrate makes hundreds and hundreds of liters so very economical.
Click to expand...
Devil Dan,

I have a gallon of Diafine that was perhaps mixed 3 years ago. I will run an experiment to see if it still works, but I will almost certainly replace it.

The Kodak hard rubber tanks I own for dip and dunk are 3 1/2 gallons. So now is the time to go mucho crazy.

As people know I think I likely will eventualily get an 8x10, or at least utilize 4x5 capability.

Mark Cuban says, “Go big: or don’t go,” but I say, “Go crazy: or don’t go.” LOL.

Although it seems you so far have beat me as far as going crazy. LOL.

Back in high school I was great in chemistry. Then again I come from a research background, and also there is a lot of crazy lab gear that “fell off the truck” over the decades. I have a glove box to mix powders; and ultrasonic tank for devolving developers; a triple beam balance; and all kinds of trick lab ware of the highest quality.

I certainly will be mixing my own and possibly be creating my own developers.

I am so great full that the Baby-Victorian has a sewer connection.

My limitation is only a 7 foot basement ceiling.

Right now I’m pay out lots of money to speed up fixing the house so I can selfishly move into getting crazy with building out my own spaces. “Don’t tell Maggie.”

Cal
 
I have a thought to share: I figure with labor shortages, material shortages, and inflation that it would be wise to buy, spend, and build out ASAP rather than later or waiting.

An observation is that many Americans are putting off maintenance and home improvements because of economics and economic hardship, but I kinda see the situation as now or never because in the future these same people that put off maintenance and home improvements will eventually get priced out.

I am focused in a hurry up mode to take advantage of an envelope of sorts, an envelope of affordability.

I am surprised that Biden and his administration has done so little to “normalize” relations with Canada by removing Trump tarriffs on lumber that is 20% on raw lumber and 25% on finished wood products. Know that tariffs are inflationary and this exacerbates the housing shortage and inflates housing prices.

So dumb move by Trump by instituting tarries on raw materials we need and by inaction another dumb move by Biden. Where do we find this bad leadership And bad policy?

BTW in economic history the Great Depression was made worse by tariffs and protectionism.

Cal
 
“It takes one to know one,” I have repeated.

When I was a kid the song ”Psycho Killer” came out by the Cars, and all my friends thought of me. More recently, when I lived on the Southside of Williamsburg, before it was conquered by hipsters, the landlord of my loft called me a “scary guy” and that I would not have any problems when I asked about when I would get my security deposit back.

The point I’m trying to make is that I use to be an angry and kinda dangerous guy, and perhaps because I was a performance artist for about a decade, combine with being a drama queen, I could scare and terrify people when I needed to.

As a teenager I learned unprocessed anger in my case led to depressions, so I adapted my behavior and became somewhat volatile and explosive. To call me a “hot-head” back then would be accurate.

Rage and anger are powerful weapons, but I channeled a lot of that energy into work and into my creativity.

So I reflect on all the suicides happening and the deaths of despair. I think of the mass shootings, the road rage, and all of the violence that is emerging, all the anxiety, and mental illness that is emerging and growing. The summery is that there are a lot of people suffering who are not doing so well that are unhappy.

The second suicide and most recent Metro North related death was of a 19 year old. How tragic, but then again I understand. I’m so glad that I outgrew my anger, but I see it in the world all around me. I see people with mental health issues deteriorating, I see the discontent, I see the unhappiness, I see the apathy… I am not numb to it, but somehow I remain happy with a positive mental attitude.

In Navy SEAL survival training they teach you that a positive mental attitude is 95% of survival, and if you read Dale Carnegie’s book on Positive Thinking you learn that negative thinking often becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.

Just wanted to also let you know that a lot of crazy-bad stuff is happening all around me, so things are at times not so rosy, but I maintain a positive mental attitude to keep moving forward.

Our house effectively is a work zone that is noisy and dusty. Plaster was demo’ed and a 15 yard dumpster is nearly full in my driveway. The dining room, living room, hallway, and upstairs bathroom are not functional living spaces. Sadly our living conditions are kinda like when we lived in a 650 square foot apartment in Madhattan. We have about the same living space currently.

Meanwhile we are taking care of our grandson (“Maggie” gets dropped off at her daughter’s home about 15-20 minutes away) and Maggie’s work on the editing of her book is falling way behind. Of course I take up a lot of the slack, but Maggie is at the breaking point.

I’m reminded of the joke where a pessimist and an optimist argue. It gets to a point where the optimist gets the upper hand and the pessimist says, ”I’m going to take this hammer and smash your hand repeatedly. What is good about that?”

”It will be good when you stop,” replied the optimist.

So a few more days, and the work will wind down. The tile guy is grouting today, and after that he will be done. More sheet rock on the walls needs to be installed, then the ceiling in the hallway needs sheet rock.

Spackle, paint, and hanging fixtures…

Know that I will be doing the translucent staining of all the trim, and that the salvaged moldings from the dining room need to be stripped of paint (non lead).

My life is pretty much the joke with the hand smashing.

I’m not complaining, and I’m not really stressed or unhappy except for the “Woman-Factor.”

Cal
 
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