NYC Journal

Yesterday was an Internet disconnect for me. Kinda healthy to take a break.

Simple things like seeing rabbits in my yard that are rather tame when I go to throw out the garbage is quite beautiful. The harvest of tomato’s and my hoarding of them after optimal ripening on my counter and then in the fridge to preserve the freshness to stockpile sauce for the freezer. Also appreciating all that I have brings happiness.

Sunday there is a “Free” library was established at Ester Place by one of our political friends. Pretty much take a book and leave a book, and a way of recycling. Ester place is a meeting place and a public place. Free music in the summer, and a kind of center for our community.

At Peekskill Coffee nearby I looked at the latest issue of “Upstate Houses” but these homes are for the mucho affluent, but another magazine rated communities in Westchester. Surprisingly Peekskill has a rather high median income level. Pretty much owning a home in the Hudson Valley is a trophy and a display of wealth.

Buchanan the tiny town just a block away from our Baby-Victorian is a community of only 2,000 people. It is so small that the government is trying to close the Post Office. This town was voted the safest in Westchester overall.

An adjoining town Verplank has no home delivery of mail. Pretty much I gather that this community is so small that the Post Office was going to be closed. I think if I remember correctly the population is only 1,500 people, and an agreement was reached. There would be no home delivery, and all residents would get a post office box. How rural is that?

Today is a gym day, where “Maggie” works with a personal trainer. I’ll see how much improvement I did over the past week. One thing is I need more rest, a full 8 hours, because my guitar playing is a bit mentally fatiguing and intense, and my body needs more rest to recover from physical exercise. Good thing I’m retired.

My guess is I’m likely the same weight, and still a few pounds from being officially a skinny bitch.

“Maggie” donated a book called “The Book Of Delights” written by a man who grew tired of all the negativity in the world. Pretty much he choose to dwell on the positive, and pretty much simple things made him happy. I donated the book “Say Goodbye To All That” a collection of essays by writers that fell in love with NYC and then fell out of love with NYC and moved on.

Life is kinda relaxed and great.

Cal
 
Gold yet made another Intra-Day high of $2658.00.

Pretty easy to see the trend and pretty much this is indicative of geopolitical risks, currency risks, inflation, and possible worse case war or government defaults.

This is a lot of reading between the lines and suggests how the world is a complete mess.

They say/recommend having at least 5% of your wealth/portfolio invested in gold as an insurance policy. Pretty much most of the time gold languishes and provides little or no return, but when things get crappy it appreciates in a crazy manner that gets pretty insane. Looks like now is one of those times.

There is a report that suggests a valuation of $4.4K. How insane is that? Doing the math using today’s Intra-Day high a valuation to $4.4K is a 60.41% increase. Mucho insane.

Gold is a highly liquid asset and easily converted to cash. If gold goes to $4.4K it is probable and likely other assets (paper assets like stocks and bonds) have tanked and are cheap to buy.

I don’t want to scare you, but this is the unstable world we now live in. Hope you are sitting on some gold and other hard assets to preserve wealth.

Cal
 
Been playing my Santa Cruz’s today. The two model “F’s” with the tapered bracing encourage a heavy hand to promote volume and tone. The braces are stiffer, but the tone is flat and more balanced than my Santa Cruz OM that has schalloped bracing that has a top that flexes more easily.

The trade off with the OM is a scooped midrange, although the top and bottom frequency ranges both get loud rather rapidly. A different sound, and also a different style.

Anyways I’m mucho glad I have both, and two different styles to develop.

Pretty spoiled. I’m in heaven.

Cal
 
Our friend Fidel once recommended getting an Audi Avant, pretty much a station wagon. I also drool over the RS6 Avant which is a mucho crazy old man’s car.

So today “Maggie” gets the genius idea and asks if Audi makes a wagon or SUV because she thinks it would be practical, useful and cost effective way to go glamping rather than a RV or buying a summer home or 3-season camp.

WOW. Is this my dream come true? The RS6 has over 500 HP, ceramic brakes, and Madhattan Audi has two 2021 versions with only 25K miles on them. The loud red version has summer tires, and I’m cool with that because we have the 2015 A4 for winter driving.

They also have an A6 Avant with 46K miles on it, but of course this is like an ugly girlfriend instead of the trophy.

So this daydream came as a surprise. Wow dreams can come true. I feel like checking the lottery tickets I bought. You never know.

I’m kinda crazy, but so is my life. What a twist.

Cal
 
Cal, the Puch is being built with parts I own, always has been, as I got just the frame and fork. It's a somewhat rare Mistral Ultima SLX, produced for Puch by Bianchi. Considering the used bike market these days, I'll probably just keep it, otherwise I'd be letting it go at a loss.
I went to the Keystone swap yesterday and got a couple little bits I can use like: a set of VO fenders ($5!), another Suntour ProCompe freewheel, a matching pair of cracked Salsa bottle cages, which I will repurpose accordingly, a couple other bottle cages, and a bike's worth of red padded Newbaums tape. I got all that for less than $30. I was watching friends and fellow bike heads trying to sell BEAUTIFUL parts and beautiful bikes, at fire-sale prices. A fantastic condition 1992 19" Stumpjumper Team frame for $40 that DIDN'T sell. Any "investment" into anything bike related right now, is purely for the collection and personal satisfaction of it. I think I offended a friend of mine who showed me a Titan Elite stem, commonly seen on old Schwinn Paramount racing bikes. I said, "you gonna sell that to me?" He replied, "how much do you want to pay?" I said, "$40, just what you got it for." To which he answered, "no, I bought this thing to make a profit, I'll put it up on eBay and sell it for $100." I said, "no you won't, there is no market in this stuff right now. The guy I got mine from has two of them and they have been listed for almost a year, that's why he took my low-ball offer, and mine was new." I checked eBay for the same stem and they have been selling between $15 and $35.
Another fellow local mechanic was trying to sell his nearly never ridden Lightspeed Obed with full XTR, at $800 and had only two people looking at it. He actually said he'd be willing to take a lower cash offer but no joy.
All this stuff has ZERO VALUE for any sort of resale, it's all at a loss and until we run out of petrol, the market is way too soft. I mean, look at these two British frames I just recently got, one is a 1964 A.S. Gillott , hand built by Ron Cooper himself, and it was sold to me along with a 1949 Rotrax track frameset, both for less than $200 combined. This is not unlike 15-20 years ago when folks sold their Hassleblads and Rolleiflexes for prices I could easily afford. The Gillott frame I would have not been able to afford 5 years ago, as it would be worth 1/4 of what I'm paying for my car.
Phil
 
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My weigh in was 159 pounds. Not really loosing weight, and I’m bulking up.

I kinda knew without a scale because my 28 inch waist Patagonia knickers are fitting snug. When I’m a skinny-bitch they have a looser fit.

I was able to up the resistance on the elliptical and do my hour no problem, and the dumbbells seemed not as heavy as last week. I might have to upgrade the weights.

So I feel good, kinda energized instead of being fatigued. I think I have the right balance of diet, exercise and rest. Trying not to hammer or overdue anything. It seems because of my age rest becomes more important than ever. I am progressively getting stronger, and I think this week I hit a tipping point where I can increase intensity. Somewhat of a base I believe has formed.

Wednesday “Maggie” is meeting a friend in the city, and I think I will hit the gym again.

Cal
 
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Phil,

I understand careful buying, and more or less for personal use.

I too have an IBIS Alabi frame laying a round. I bought it because it is clean, but it will just be extra for a long-time.

Spending $30.00 was a good thing. Nice to daydream, and I’m happy that you likely end up keeping the Puch. It is not a bad thing to keep around.

Anyways life without remorse has a sense of purpose about it.

I mentioned in an earlier post of wanting another amp, but I have an old Ampeg rat carcass that I was building into a 6V6 amp, and it has a brass grounding plate with mil-spec stand offs that uses all NOS paper and oil caps that are the last of my Grumman stock.

Vintage 47 sells nice finger joined cabinets that also come with a steel chassis to build upon. Now my thinking is that I buy this cabinet for $245.00 and pretty much build out my own 6V6 amp that uses a circuit for a very-very early tweed Super Amp that utilized 6V6’s except I’ll use a 12 inch speaker instead of two low power 10 inch speakers.

This is a project that was in my junk pile for decades.

Don’t tell “Maggie” but a man can’t have enough junk, as long as the junk will have some purpose in the future. Keep that in mind, unless you really have to purge and downsize.

In the end my old junk provided a sense of security and continuity that I needed to maintain hope through difficult times. In a way a sense of purpose, and also a reminder of my individuality by having objects as secure possessions.

Cal
 
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Gold set a new Intra-Day high of $2664.60.

There is some talk that the FED over pumped the market. Also they say further rate cuts into next year. Obvious that this rate cut and the projected others is stimulas. If overdone certainly this stimulus will fuel inflation.

Pretty much there is a reason why gold is being bid up, inflation is one reason, but also the world is really unstable.

That over 60% jump in gold valuations is a crazy speculation, or maybe not so crazy…

Either way things are not looking great or even good, meanwhile the markets set new record highs. To me it seems like the FED is doing a “Pump and Dump.” In reality the economy is not that good. Too much debt…

Anyways, I don’t think I’m jumping the shark here, but eventually there will be a very rude awakening and a time of major austerity. I coined an expression “The Greater Depression.”

Cal
 
Basic survival: food, water, shelter, clothing, and heat/cooling I kinda have covered as well as I can.

I’m not a survivalist, but I have done what I can do to secure these necessary elements.

In the northeast it is one place where we somewhat have a stable water supply, I grow food, and I have stockpile enough shoes and clothing so pretty much I don’t have to buy anything but perhaps socks and underwear for the next decade. Pretty much I hoarded using sales and close outs to stockpile my supply.

In my basement is a 60 gallon tote loaded with shoes and boots I accumulated from DSW using coupons. It is kinda crazy, and I think I bought too many dress-E shoes. I basically wear sportswear for comfort and utility.

So pretty much I am ready for a time of austerity where I can minimize consumption. I’m thinking of recovering rainwater for my garden, and expanding my food production.

One shelf in my fridge is loaded with three different types of tomato’s and I need to make a big batch of sauce to freeze. The tomato’s were vine ripened mostly, and the ones that fell off by themselves only required a day in the sun on my kitchen counter to ripen to perfection. I have gallons of tomato’s and the abundant harvest has only begun. The heavy harvest is yet to come.

Rain is expected later in the week, and I certainly will exploit the rain as a time to cook.

The idea here is to be prepared for the austerity that is coming and to be in a sustainable position to survive. One key element is not to have debt and to live below your means.

Retirement means living within a budget and not wasting money or resources. Even if not retired people should think this way…

Time to harvest more produce… This happens every day…

Cal
 
Case-Schiller Index says home prices increased 0.3% in July. A bit of a slowdown but still an increase.

Previous headlines suggest that the slight slowdown in sales and increases is the election. Pretty much political uncertainty has a leash on the housing market. This makes sense to me.

Know that the Case-Schiller Index monitors the 20 big city markets, so it only really represents only the big markets, and for me that would be NYC which I am an extension of.

Cal
 
Gold set a new Intra-Day High of $2672.00. Seems unlikely, but it is almost like the market is lurking on my posts.

This is suggesting either war or inflation is getting more serious. Also The FED “pump and dump.”

Do you think the economy is that good to justify market valuations?

Hmmm.

Cal
 
As the FED cuts rates, other economies will follow suit is what the headlines and economic history promotes.

Not sure China’s very late stimulus will do any good. They likely might be past a tipping point because they already are in a deflationary spiral. Pretty much their Central Bank made the same mistake as Japan when its real estate bubble popped. They are at the beginning of a “lost decade” and a deflationary mess/trap.

Know that lower interest rates promote gold prices, so the trend I’m recognizing has legs and will only progress further. Will it go to $4.4K or more? Perhaps only a guess at this point, but as they say, “The trend is your friend.” This is a time where gold is a good “portfolio insurance.”

Pretty evident to me.

The rest of the world has a different mess called inflation compounded by debt loads that are not sustainable.

I think the housing market will get hot either way after the election. Inflation I think will become re-ignited, and real estate is a a good asset to own in a period of prolonged inflation.

BTW either way I see inflation being a very long-term problem. Housing has been a very large component of inflation, and it will become rather evident after the election. Instead of look out below, it is time to hold onto your hats.

Housing will be the big component that not already has caused inflation, but also will be the catalyst for further inflation.

If we look at inflation in terms of deflation, understand that there seems to be excess capacity in the world, but here in the U.S. there is a housing shortage that will take at least a decade or two to normalize. By definition deflation is excess capacity, and shortages are inflationary.

Remember under-building persisted since 2007-2008, a period of almost 15 years, then compound this by mortgage rates of under 3% that lock in homeowners from selling, and then add in the buying of home by deep pockets with cash that scooped up homes that are now rentals.

We are afloat in a cesspool. What a mess…

Cal
 
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Morning Devil Cal,

Organizing the Studio by Nokton48, on Flickr

Bought a lot of plastic storage boxes, to better organize things, and to keep them at hand. Project progresses as I have time for it. I configured a second Telescopic Norma (on the left), this one in 520mm/4x5 size, for easier portability outside, with same perspective. I used to take exploratory photos with 4x5 film, and If the subject was strong enough, I would sometimes return with the 8x10 Norma. You can see the completed 8x10 Norma Monocular Unit on the back of the 1000mm Norma Unit on the right. I like using it so much, I'm going to make two smaller versions, one for the 5x7's, and two different ones for the 4x5. So more JB Welding ahead!
 
A headline is that China’s recent stimulus is a Booze-ZUKA.

Pretty much my spin on it is still too late. The real estate bubble popped a long time ago, and now China’s Central Bank is trying to re-inflate their real estate bubble with loose lending and extending credit.

Not so likely that the Chinese people will throw more money away. Pretty much there still is an oversupply still. Supply side economics does not really help the flood of money and cheap credit. Well not enough to matter…

Pretty much another failed policy and another mistake. What drove their economy was real estate and construction. There is no round two or second chance. That game has played out.

WOW, another dumb move on a grand scale.

After suffering a massive housing and construction bubble, let’s try and do that again.

Cal
 
Another report suggests that China’s new stimulus plan is more like a shotgun blast that is cited as being modest in size. Also suggested was it was too small and will only have a short-term effect at best. Pretty much the same message, but a different framing.

This might moderate the downturn in the rest of the world though.

Kinda like things are not so bad for me, because I’m doing better than you. Out of the three big economies: U.S.; China; and Europe; China is the worse off.

I don’t expect any good will from the U.S. or Europe; just the opposite because of China’s support of Putin.

You reap what you sow…

Cal
 
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