Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Here are some numbers:
87% of mortgages are under 6%.
This translates to 13% of mortgages are over 6%.
Current mortgage interest rates are around 6.2%.
22% of mortgages are under 3%.
The long term average mortgage rate over decades is actually 7.49%. Hard to believe but the numbers and the simple math does not lie.
So expect the 13% with mortgage rates over 6% to do some Re-Fi when rates become more favorable and beneficial.
87 minus 22 is 65, so perhaps 65 percent of homeowners might have an opportunity to sell and buy back into the market over a spread depending on their present locked in rate, but it seems likely that the 22% that have mortgages under 3% near or at record historical lows will continue not to sell, and effectively 22% of the available housing is kinda/basically off the market.
Let’s not forget the deep pockets that bought the 2007-2008 dip at fire sale prices that are now rental properties that exacerbate the housing shortage. These homes too likely will remain off the market. Remember not only are these properties “cash-cows” but are also a hard asset that have great potential for further appreciation as a limited commodity in a time of scarcity.
These deep-pocket homes likely have no mortgage and were bought with cash. The point here is they contribute to the housing shortage in a big way, yet they do not skew the numbers I’m reporting. At this point in history owning a home or real estate is a kinda vital asset.
I see the supply-demand imbalance pretty much continuing, and home prices getting bid up in an inflationary manner.
Two other facts: Housing costs were responsible for over 70% of inflation last year according to a report; and home prices last year went up 5.2%.
Affordable housing is a serious problem and over the long term is not going away.
Luckily “Maggie” and I are in the 22% with a mortgage rate near the record low under 3%. We caught a “falling knife” as they say, otherwise we would not be so secure in retirement.
I do think that the Hudson Valley will continue to be a hot market. Global warming, increasing storm intensities, and rising sea levels will promote the Hudson Valley as a safer place.
POST SCRIPT: pretty evident that housing prices will continue to get further inflated as interest rates fall and when the buying heats up. I don’t think Barbra Corcoran is wrong that at around 6% interest rates that there will follow an inflation in home prices due to demand. The numbers I guy into support her thesis.
The numbers I’m reporting flow in line with Barbra’s 6% as the tipping point.
Basically her premise was that it might pay to buy earlier, because the supply/demand imbalance might outweigh the cost of a mortgage even at a lower interest rate.
Simple math. If interest rates at 7% slowed down the housing market, and yet housing still appreciated 5.2%, is it sensible to say at 6% that home prices will at least go up 1%, and perhaps housing prices might get offset by that 1% to have a 6,2% increase?
Pretty much simple economics of understanding supply and demand and realizing where inflation will likely happen.
Post-Post-Script: I actually saw Barbra on Lexington Avenue and 96th Street. She is a tiny short woman. I did not invade her privacy BTW.
Cal
87% of mortgages are under 6%.
This translates to 13% of mortgages are over 6%.
Current mortgage interest rates are around 6.2%.
22% of mortgages are under 3%.
The long term average mortgage rate over decades is actually 7.49%. Hard to believe but the numbers and the simple math does not lie.
So expect the 13% with mortgage rates over 6% to do some Re-Fi when rates become more favorable and beneficial.
87 minus 22 is 65, so perhaps 65 percent of homeowners might have an opportunity to sell and buy back into the market over a spread depending on their present locked in rate, but it seems likely that the 22% that have mortgages under 3% near or at record historical lows will continue not to sell, and effectively 22% of the available housing is kinda/basically off the market.
Let’s not forget the deep pockets that bought the 2007-2008 dip at fire sale prices that are now rental properties that exacerbate the housing shortage. These homes too likely will remain off the market. Remember not only are these properties “cash-cows” but are also a hard asset that have great potential for further appreciation as a limited commodity in a time of scarcity.
These deep-pocket homes likely have no mortgage and were bought with cash. The point here is they contribute to the housing shortage in a big way, yet they do not skew the numbers I’m reporting. At this point in history owning a home or real estate is a kinda vital asset.
I see the supply-demand imbalance pretty much continuing, and home prices getting bid up in an inflationary manner.
Two other facts: Housing costs were responsible for over 70% of inflation last year according to a report; and home prices last year went up 5.2%.
Affordable housing is a serious problem and over the long term is not going away.
Luckily “Maggie” and I are in the 22% with a mortgage rate near the record low under 3%. We caught a “falling knife” as they say, otherwise we would not be so secure in retirement.
I do think that the Hudson Valley will continue to be a hot market. Global warming, increasing storm intensities, and rising sea levels will promote the Hudson Valley as a safer place.
POST SCRIPT: pretty evident that housing prices will continue to get further inflated as interest rates fall and when the buying heats up. I don’t think Barbra Corcoran is wrong that at around 6% interest rates that there will follow an inflation in home prices due to demand. The numbers I guy into support her thesis.
The numbers I’m reporting flow in line with Barbra’s 6% as the tipping point.
Basically her premise was that it might pay to buy earlier, because the supply/demand imbalance might outweigh the cost of a mortgage even at a lower interest rate.
Simple math. If interest rates at 7% slowed down the housing market, and yet housing still appreciated 5.2%, is it sensible to say at 6% that home prices will at least go up 1%, and perhaps housing prices might get offset by that 1% to have a 6,2% increase?
Pretty much simple economics of understanding supply and demand and realizing where inflation will likely happen.
Post-Post-Script: I actually saw Barbra on Lexington Avenue and 96th Street. She is a tiny short woman. I did not invade her privacy BTW.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
“Maggie” just left to meet a friend at Peekskill Coffee. She is walking, but I might have to pick her up.
The amp is scheduled for delivery between 11:30 AM and 3:30 PM. Pretty much an early delivery could mean I have an envelope to sneak the amp into the house. I have so much gear that she might not notice. LOL.
So is this my criminal like personality, being a capitalist, having great luck, or divine intervention or encouragement to be a bad boy? Perhaps a little of all of the above. Hmmm…
Let’s see how this all pans out. I could innocently be able to hide an amp. LOL.
Anyways, I remain playful, and I have a lot of fun.
Cal
The amp is scheduled for delivery between 11:30 AM and 3:30 PM. Pretty much an early delivery could mean I have an envelope to sneak the amp into the house. I have so much gear that she might not notice. LOL.
So is this my criminal like personality, being a capitalist, having great luck, or divine intervention or encouragement to be a bad boy? Perhaps a little of all of the above. Hmmm…
Let’s see how this all pans out. I could innocently be able to hide an amp. LOL.
Anyways, I remain playful, and I have a lot of fun.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
2:00 PM today we should learn about the FED rate cut.
Cal
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The FED did the aggressive rate cut of 1/2%.
This favors inflation that I outlined above.
The jobs report and leading indicators. I wonder if the FED has privileged information we the public will learn later in the week with the scheduled announcements. Perhaps this inside information is being foretold with the half point cut, basically numbers that point to a slow economy is what I’m suggesting is likely.
If the UPS driver came 15 minutes earlier, I would of gotten my amp delivery before “Maggie” walked home. Oh-well I figured I got caught red-handed.
I played it cool, and after some conversation I retrieved the big box laying on the stoop. I brought it into our living room and started to unpack the amp. It was double boxed and packaged very well. The tubes were not installed and were also well packaged.
So I do the reveal, and so far Maggie is about ten feet away in the kitchen. I remove the back panel, read the literature that came with the amp, I reinstalled the tubes and back panel, and somehow all this goes un-noticed. I’m kinda not sneaking around, and pretty much I’m doing all this in plain sight, and all goes undiscovered.
“Oh-well,” I say, and then I bring the stealthy amp upstairs into the second bedroom. I plug in the amp, warm up the tubes, and I get my Snakehead Tele to play the amp. I doodle around for a half hour. No one is the wiser, I somehow hid a 30 pound 15x16x8 inch amp in plain sight without being sneaky.
Bonus is I did not get “Dog-Faced.” LOL.
I’m a bad boy. Spank me. LOL.
Cal
This favors inflation that I outlined above.
The jobs report and leading indicators. I wonder if the FED has privileged information we the public will learn later in the week with the scheduled announcements. Perhaps this inside information is being foretold with the half point cut, basically numbers that point to a slow economy is what I’m suggesting is likely.
If the UPS driver came 15 minutes earlier, I would of gotten my amp delivery before “Maggie” walked home. Oh-well I figured I got caught red-handed.
I played it cool, and after some conversation I retrieved the big box laying on the stoop. I brought it into our living room and started to unpack the amp. It was double boxed and packaged very well. The tubes were not installed and were also well packaged.
So I do the reveal, and so far Maggie is about ten feet away in the kitchen. I remove the back panel, read the literature that came with the amp, I reinstalled the tubes and back panel, and somehow all this goes un-noticed. I’m kinda not sneaking around, and pretty much I’m doing all this in plain sight, and all goes undiscovered.
“Oh-well,” I say, and then I bring the stealthy amp upstairs into the second bedroom. I plug in the amp, warm up the tubes, and I get my Snakehead Tele to play the amp. I doodle around for a half hour. No one is the wiser, I somehow hid a 30 pound 15x16x8 inch amp in plain sight without being sneaky.
Bonus is I did not get “Dog-Faced.” LOL.
I’m a bad boy. Spank me. LOL.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
First Impressions: Vintage 47 VA-20 amp packaged in a RIC cabinet.
The amp weighs less than 30 pounds, and I found it to be surprisingly small and compact.
My research revealed that the birch finger-joined plywood cabinet i
The amp weighs less than 30 pounds, and I found it to be surprisingly small and compact.
My research revealed that the birch finger-joined plywood cabinet i
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Is CNC’ed by an outside vendor. The construction is robust and well done. I love the quality.
There is only a volume and a tone control. There are two switches: one is for power and there is now power indicator light and I had to look for the glow of the tube filaments as a power indicator; the other switch is for half power.
Initially I tried the amp at half power, but I would later learn that I get a fuller tone by using the amp at full power with the volume turned to about 11:30. Pretty much the same volume but thicker more nuance tone, and a lot more touch sensitivity.
The tone control of course has a limited useful sweep with a Tele bridge pickup. This is not uncommon also in my other amps because a Tele bridge pickup has mucho treble. There is a great degree of interaction though between the guitar tone control and the tone control on the amp. Pretty much enough to be interesting.
This amp is kinda warm with a lively midrange that suits me well. It also compliments the clarity a Tele can provide. The Cathodyne driver is like on my old 1952 tweed Fender Deluxe that sadly I no longer own. Very touch sensitive, and this is without pumping the volume.
This is kinda my style and I look forward to breaking in the speaker at high volumes and in the future seeing what this amp can really do. It has a wonderful voice even without getting loud. Pretty much a sweet amp.
In reference to the Tweed Deluxe, the Deluxe did the Neil Young mucho thick distortion well, but had severely restricted clean head room. Also the bass response was kinda “fart-E,” was too loose, and lacked definition. This VA-20 with a stout power supply and a nice Alnico speaker that is a bit over-rated in wattage does well in keeping the bass from getting flabby or fart-E.
I find the retro styling and look to be elegant. Very tastefully done.
I have a lot of flexibility in tone shaping the amp via different tubes. I can use 5Y3, 4U5GB, or 5AR4/GZ34 rectofiers to change the high voltage operation range. The 5Y3 offers the lowest voltage and power. The 5AR4 the highest voltage and power. The 5U4GB lays in between.
The 6SN7 driver tube has low gain and provides the most clean headroom, but if I use a 6SL7 I get more gain, aggression, and more output.
Then I could use either a pair of 5881’s or 6L6’s for output flavoring. The 5881’s have a slightly lower output, but also a smoother top end roll-off. The 6L6 offers more power as well as clean headroom.
If I limit the rectofier to a 5Y3 I could even use a pair of 6V6’s to drop down the power. This would likely make the amp great for that old school cranked amp sound for blues.
Don’t tell “Maggie” but this amp is mighty good, and I’m in love.
Cal
There is only a volume and a tone control. There are two switches: one is for power and there is now power indicator light and I had to look for the glow of the tube filaments as a power indicator; the other switch is for half power.
Initially I tried the amp at half power, but I would later learn that I get a fuller tone by using the amp at full power with the volume turned to about 11:30. Pretty much the same volume but thicker more nuance tone, and a lot more touch sensitivity.
The tone control of course has a limited useful sweep with a Tele bridge pickup. This is not uncommon also in my other amps because a Tele bridge pickup has mucho treble. There is a great degree of interaction though between the guitar tone control and the tone control on the amp. Pretty much enough to be interesting.
This amp is kinda warm with a lively midrange that suits me well. It also compliments the clarity a Tele can provide. The Cathodyne driver is like on my old 1952 tweed Fender Deluxe that sadly I no longer own. Very touch sensitive, and this is without pumping the volume.
This is kinda my style and I look forward to breaking in the speaker at high volumes and in the future seeing what this amp can really do. It has a wonderful voice even without getting loud. Pretty much a sweet amp.
In reference to the Tweed Deluxe, the Deluxe did the Neil Young mucho thick distortion well, but had severely restricted clean head room. Also the bass response was kinda “fart-E,” was too loose, and lacked definition. This VA-20 with a stout power supply and a nice Alnico speaker that is a bit over-rated in wattage does well in keeping the bass from getting flabby or fart-E.
I find the retro styling and look to be elegant. Very tastefully done.
I have a lot of flexibility in tone shaping the amp via different tubes. I can use 5Y3, 4U5GB, or 5AR4/GZ34 rectofiers to change the high voltage operation range. The 5Y3 offers the lowest voltage and power. The 5AR4 the highest voltage and power. The 5U4GB lays in between.
The 6SN7 driver tube has low gain and provides the most clean headroom, but if I use a 6SL7 I get more gain, aggression, and more output.
Then I could use either a pair of 5881’s or 6L6’s for output flavoring. The 5881’s have a slightly lower output, but also a smoother top end roll-off. The 6L6 offers more power as well as clean headroom.
If I limit the rectofier to a 5Y3 I could even use a pair of 6V6’s to drop down the power. This would likely make the amp great for that old school cranked amp sound for blues.
Don’t tell “Maggie” but this amp is mighty good, and I’m in love.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The markets rallied on the news of the cut, but then a red screen happened.
Seems I’m not alone in thinking that the FED acted on privileged information on unemployment and leading indicators. Let’s see that news later this week.
I’m going into my NOS tube stockpile to make a kit to experiment and do some tone shaping. The VA-20 has a cathode bias in the power section, so there is no bias adjustment required when I change output tubes.
Should be rewarding and a lot of fun.
I’m leaving my stealth amp out in plain sight. So far no “Dog-Face.” Ha-ha.
Cal
Seems I’m not alone in thinking that the FED acted on privileged information on unemployment and leading indicators. Let’s see that news later this week.
I’m going into my NOS tube stockpile to make a kit to experiment and do some tone shaping. The VA-20 has a cathode bias in the power section, so there is no bias adjustment required when I change output tubes.
Should be rewarding and a lot of fun.
I’m leaving my stealth amp out in plain sight. So far no “Dog-Face.” Ha-ha.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I’m in tone heaven. This morning I replaced the higher power rectifier tube with a low power NOS 5Y3 which has a huge voltage drop. The result is a pretty substantial loss of output power and some brightness, but this also thickened the sound with mids. Also the amp now kinda resembles a lot my old tweed Deluxe, except it has a robust bottom end that is thick and meaty.
Pretty much I traded off some power, maybe 3-5 watts, for thicker tone, and as a bonus because of less gain I have a bit more touch sensitivity.
The amp is suddenly much more musical. More or less now set up as a great blues amp. I use a 6SL7 for some aggression as a driver for the power tubes. Perhaps configured this way a 15 watt amp, but unlike my tweed Deluxe it has a beefy tight bottom.
I already know that if I go low gain on the driver with a 6SQ7 I get a smoothness and less treble bite for Jazz. I would want to use a GZ34 for higher voltage and more power. In addition to this I would change out the power tubes to 6L6’s for more clean headroom. I figure an 18-20 watt amp with clean headroom maxed out.
I think I will solder the speaker connections, I don’t like press fit lug connections, especially on speakers that are electro-mechanical. The mini-switch for half-power seems like a cheap version, and I have a locking Grumman mini-switch that is of aircraft quality.
I’ll pull the chassis today to do my mods for robustness and to inspect the quality. These are rather simple amps with not many components. These are hand built and have point to point wiring to discreet components like caps and resistors. Understand that I built electronic prototypes in a research environment for over 17 years. My QC inspection gets pretty deep.
I found out that Tung-Sol makes a re-issue 5881 output tube that very closely matches the original NOS version that was made in the USA. The re-issue is made in Russia, but the weakness is that the re-issue may sound the same, it is not built to last 10,000 hours. The NOS USA Tung-Sol was a military tube… the re-issue is not as durable or robust…
The re-issue costs $42.95 each. The J-J 5881 power tubes that came with the amp are kinda rated Ho-Humm and are not highly regarded. I expect to upgrade to NOS of the Tung-Sol reissues. BTW I have the real deal NOS versions made by Tung Sol in the USA, but they are in another amp (1960 brown Fender Super). These tubes are my sound.
The size of this amp is about the size of my old tweed Deluxe, meaning it is small, and it weighs under 30 pounds. I’m able to get the tone I want without really getting loud or annoying. I love the thickness and richness of my blues configuration. The Snakehead Tele only has a very bright bridge pickup, and pretty much that is all you need.
The configuration for max-headroom offers less brightness and in return you get a rolled off top end and smoothness that is great for Jazz. This is so pronounced that I could even use the bridge pickup on a Tele to play Jazz.
I no longer miss my tweed Deluxe, and now I have a much better replacement that is not a one trick poney. Makes for a great bedroom or practice amp, which was my original intention, but it is also powerful enough to gig with.
I am pleased with my purchase, and so far it remains a “stealth” amp. Don’t tell “Maggie.”
I think I will try my NOS 5881’s in the new amp. Should be killer.
Cal
Pretty much I traded off some power, maybe 3-5 watts, for thicker tone, and as a bonus because of less gain I have a bit more touch sensitivity.
The amp is suddenly much more musical. More or less now set up as a great blues amp. I use a 6SL7 for some aggression as a driver for the power tubes. Perhaps configured this way a 15 watt amp, but unlike my tweed Deluxe it has a beefy tight bottom.
I already know that if I go low gain on the driver with a 6SQ7 I get a smoothness and less treble bite for Jazz. I would want to use a GZ34 for higher voltage and more power. In addition to this I would change out the power tubes to 6L6’s for more clean headroom. I figure an 18-20 watt amp with clean headroom maxed out.
I think I will solder the speaker connections, I don’t like press fit lug connections, especially on speakers that are electro-mechanical. The mini-switch for half-power seems like a cheap version, and I have a locking Grumman mini-switch that is of aircraft quality.
I’ll pull the chassis today to do my mods for robustness and to inspect the quality. These are rather simple amps with not many components. These are hand built and have point to point wiring to discreet components like caps and resistors. Understand that I built electronic prototypes in a research environment for over 17 years. My QC inspection gets pretty deep.
I found out that Tung-Sol makes a re-issue 5881 output tube that very closely matches the original NOS version that was made in the USA. The re-issue is made in Russia, but the weakness is that the re-issue may sound the same, it is not built to last 10,000 hours. The NOS USA Tung-Sol was a military tube… the re-issue is not as durable or robust…
The re-issue costs $42.95 each. The J-J 5881 power tubes that came with the amp are kinda rated Ho-Humm and are not highly regarded. I expect to upgrade to NOS of the Tung-Sol reissues. BTW I have the real deal NOS versions made by Tung Sol in the USA, but they are in another amp (1960 brown Fender Super). These tubes are my sound.
The size of this amp is about the size of my old tweed Deluxe, meaning it is small, and it weighs under 30 pounds. I’m able to get the tone I want without really getting loud or annoying. I love the thickness and richness of my blues configuration. The Snakehead Tele only has a very bright bridge pickup, and pretty much that is all you need.
The configuration for max-headroom offers less brightness and in return you get a rolled off top end and smoothness that is great for Jazz. This is so pronounced that I could even use the bridge pickup on a Tele to play Jazz.
I no longer miss my tweed Deluxe, and now I have a much better replacement that is not a one trick poney. Makes for a great bedroom or practice amp, which was my original intention, but it is also powerful enough to gig with.
I am pleased with my purchase, and so far it remains a “stealth” amp. Don’t tell “Maggie.”
I think I will try my NOS 5881’s in the new amp. Should be killer.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
WOW. The market futures are up 500 points on the DOW.
Pretty much a game of “Musical Chairs” is happening in the markets. The music just keeps on playing… And we keep on making circles…
Know that when the music stops, that pretty much many people living on credit and people with big debt olds will get caught out without a chair.
Living on debt has consequences and can’t go on forever. Payback certainly will be a bitch.
One headline suggests a recession was just pushed further down the road. I can agree with that.
Let’s see what happened after the open.
Cal
Pretty much a game of “Musical Chairs” is happening in the markets. The music just keeps on playing… And we keep on making circles…
Know that when the music stops, that pretty much many people living on credit and people with big debt olds will get caught out without a chair.
Living on debt has consequences and can’t go on forever. Payback certainly will be a bitch.
One headline suggests a recession was just pushed further down the road. I can agree with that.
Let’s see what happened after the open.
Cal
Prest_400
Multiformat
Congrats on the amp. I noticed that, as I foresaw earlier this year, my habits/hobbies would switch a bit my lifestyle. Basically some associations that I now have no time or commitment directly for and the planned travel. But I noticed me being more to myself and my own, where I was in periods just fixing association stuff.
Even photo club timing is bad, when we do exhibitions or such where I wanted to volunteer, it just clashes. Oh well, signals gotta be listened!
Foresee having to co-lead a darkroom course next Spring. I do want to focus on printing and editing my Asia trip work however; I had the obvious voice to myself of, don't prioritise other stuff when you gotta still print your own.
I am a good proxy, told 2 guys to exhibit and they did.
Locked my capital in some good yielding savings accounts... Let's see if the music stops and a correction comes to do some capital placements then.
Somehow I have "layoff mind". Europe has a fantastic safety net and job safety, so if things go awry aside of that I do have some savings. I think I did write that, would be readily available to just head off and travel if I were idle.
Even photo club timing is bad, when we do exhibitions or such where I wanted to volunteer, it just clashes. Oh well, signals gotta be listened!
Foresee having to co-lead a darkroom course next Spring. I do want to focus on printing and editing my Asia trip work however; I had the obvious voice to myself of, don't prioritise other stuff when you gotta still print your own.
I am a good proxy, told 2 guys to exhibit and they did.
I agree too. The August slump is now in the short term memory bank, but seems like it's election year stability and very few point to Recession by February-March.
Locked my capital in some good yielding savings accounts... Let's see if the music stops and a correction comes to do some capital placements then.
Somehow I have "layoff mind". Europe has a fantastic safety net and job safety, so if things go awry aside of that I do have some savings. I think I did write that, would be readily available to just head off and travel if I were idle.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I just borrowed a pair of NOS 5881’s that were installed in my 1960 brown Super. I installed the power tubes in the Vintage 47, and got blown away. The sound is more 3-D and has mucho depth. Makes the small bedroom seem like a Church or small intimate concert hall.
Anyways I’m amazed. Looks like I need to secure some NOS 5881’s made by Tung-Sol.
BTW all the tubes presently are all vintage NOS.
I expect sometime in the next few years a pretty bad situation. Not so many people living below their means, big debt loads by households and governments, and to compound all this rule of law is breaking down.
Further moral and financial bankruptcy is expected. I hate to give advice, but having dry ammo (cash or perhaps a highly liquid asset like gold) would be good insurance for when the music stops.
Cal
Anyways I’m amazed. Looks like I need to secure some NOS 5881’s made by Tung-Sol.
BTW all the tubes presently are all vintage NOS.
I expect sometime in the next few years a pretty bad situation. Not so many people living below their means, big debt loads by households and governments, and to compound all this rule of law is breaking down.
Further moral and financial bankruptcy is expected. I hate to give advice, but having dry ammo (cash or perhaps a highly liquid asset like gold) would be good insurance for when the music stops.
Cal
DownUnder
Nikon Nomad
(#3489) An interest rate cut. In an election year. Gosh, who wudda thunk it could/would happen??
Don't hold your breath on no recession. Global events suggest otherwise. Early-mid '25.
Australia (where I live) is unimportant on anything and everything economic, but China will bear careful watching.
Much could/will well depend on who will be your next POTUS.
Entirely my own observations. But I've been around a long, long time.
Don't hold your breath on no recession. Global events suggest otherwise. Early-mid '25.
Australia (where I live) is unimportant on anything and everything economic, but China will bear careful watching.
Much could/will well depend on who will be your next POTUS.
Entirely my own observations. But I've been around a long, long time.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
DU,
I see mucho trouble ahead because of debt levels that are not sustainable. Not only here in the U.S., but all around the world. Pretty much a mine field where explosions can happen anytime and anywhere.
The can just got kicked down the road a bit, and the living on debt continues to make everything eventually worse. Meanwhile gold is making new higher-highs for good reason. I’m thinking currency failures and defaults on debt. You have the U.S., China, and Europe (primarily France and Italy).
Any of the three above can take down the entire world economy. Pretty much then debt as a problem becomes amplified. I’m talking hungry children like Arab Spring, but all around the world.
If God sent Jesus to rescue us, at this point no miracle can happen. Pure evil.
Cal
I see mucho trouble ahead because of debt levels that are not sustainable. Not only here in the U.S., but all around the world. Pretty much a mine field where explosions can happen anytime and anywhere.
The can just got kicked down the road a bit, and the living on debt continues to make everything eventually worse. Meanwhile gold is making new higher-highs for good reason. I’m thinking currency failures and defaults on debt. You have the U.S., China, and Europe (primarily France and Italy).
Any of the three above can take down the entire world economy. Pretty much then debt as a problem becomes amplified. I’m talking hungry children like Arab Spring, but all around the world.
If God sent Jesus to rescue us, at this point no miracle can happen. Pure evil.
Cal
jszokoli
Well-known
Cal,
You know that gold kind of looks a little like crypto. While it is a real commodity its value is driven by what I think is dumb money.
Joe
You know that gold kind of looks a little like crypto. While it is a real commodity its value is driven by what I think is dumb money.
Joe
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Joe,
In a way I agree. You can’t eat gold or live in a bar of gold. As a commodity it is of limited usefulness. One of its uses is decoration or a display of wealth. Like crypto its value is all speculation.
As far as a store of wealth goes I like the physical aspect of gold over crypto. Also I kinda look at crypto as a pon-Z like scheme.
Gold is making higher daily highs. So far today $2644.90 is the daily high and it hovers near $2640.00. Kinda crazy, but even crazier is the one report of a $4.4K possible/probable value.
So the debt levels are shouting to me some serious problem. This likely is being taken now as old news and pretty much it is as people are wearing ear plugs. The music will stop sometime…
Cal
In a way I agree. You can’t eat gold or live in a bar of gold. As a commodity it is of limited usefulness. One of its uses is decoration or a display of wealth. Like crypto its value is all speculation.
As far as a store of wealth goes I like the physical aspect of gold over crypto. Also I kinda look at crypto as a pon-Z like scheme.
Gold is making higher daily highs. So far today $2644.90 is the daily high and it hovers near $2640.00. Kinda crazy, but even crazier is the one report of a $4.4K possible/probable value.
So the debt levels are shouting to me some serious problem. This likely is being taken now as old news and pretty much it is as people are wearing ear plugs. The music will stop sometime…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The Con Ed contractor will be digging a trench tomorrow to instal my new natural gas service. I will get a meter that has a 250 something capacity, and the new line gets upgraded from a 1/2 line to a one inch.
I was reassured that I will have future capacity in both the line and the meter to add an 18KW generator.
Also we figured out how to install the new smart meter and a vent where it basically lays hidden behind Hydrangers and does not destroy any curb appeal. Double bonus.
I am pleased.
Third bonus is that I can strip out the two gas lines in my basement that will no longer be used. I can also get rid of a reserve gas hot water heater that is not needed.
All of this work is for free.
I’m a lucky guy.
Cal
I was reassured that I will have future capacity in both the line and the meter to add an 18KW generator.
Also we figured out how to install the new smart meter and a vent where it basically lays hidden behind Hydrangers and does not destroy any curb appeal. Double bonus.
I am pleased.
Third bonus is that I can strip out the two gas lines in my basement that will no longer be used. I can also get rid of a reserve gas hot water heater that is not needed.
All of this work is for free.
I’m a lucky guy.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The new Vintage 47 amp is kinda great.
Amps generally need to operate in range to get to a narrow sweet spot where tone kills. The thing with this octal amp is that this sweet spot is kinda vast, and even at whisper or speaking voice levels I can get pretty sound. Of course the tone gets richer and lusher as the volume gets amped up, but there is a great degree of useful volume levels.
Pretty much not need to really crank the amp.
Still have not had the opportunity to crank or dime the amp to see how good it can get. I have only operated the amp with the volume at perhaps 1:30, a little more than half way.
Also have not tried other Tele’s. I’m using my Snakehead with a very bright single pickup response as a reference.
Cal
Amps generally need to operate in range to get to a narrow sweet spot where tone kills. The thing with this octal amp is that this sweet spot is kinda vast, and even at whisper or speaking voice levels I can get pretty sound. Of course the tone gets richer and lusher as the volume gets amped up, but there is a great degree of useful volume levels.
Pretty much not need to really crank the amp.
Still have not had the opportunity to crank or dime the amp to see how good it can get. I have only operated the amp with the volume at perhaps 1:30, a little more than half way.
Also have not tried other Tele’s. I’m using my Snakehead with a very bright single pickup response as a reference.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The grandson is so excited to be with us. He is such a good boy and is an eating machine. Pretty much he is only 2 and is eating basically all my food.
I got a phone call from Miguel, who is a real estate agent, wondering about if a house is for sale, but it was my sister’s house.
I felt compelled to let Miguel know of her recent passing, and that there are people who are still tender and grieving. Glad I kinda intercepted and avoided pain for others. A bit odd though. Is the housing shortage that bad that real estate agents are following the obituaries?
Capitalism at its best: vultures.
The ranch is south of Montauk Highway which holds a great amount of status on Long Island, kinda the same as saying “I live north of 25A,” which means and translates into a certain level of affluence and comfort.
In fact the town where my sister’s house is fed fly a river and formally was a Vanderbilt summer estate.
This is the world we live in.
Cal
I got a phone call from Miguel, who is a real estate agent, wondering about if a house is for sale, but it was my sister’s house.
I felt compelled to let Miguel know of her recent passing, and that there are people who are still tender and grieving. Glad I kinda intercepted and avoided pain for others. A bit odd though. Is the housing shortage that bad that real estate agents are following the obituaries?
Capitalism at its best: vultures.
The ranch is south of Montauk Highway which holds a great amount of status on Long Island, kinda the same as saying “I live north of 25A,” which means and translates into a certain level of affluence and comfort.
In fact the town where my sister’s house is fed fly a river and formally was a Vanderbilt summer estate.
This is the world we live in.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Gold sets a new Intra-Day high of $2650.10.
Meanwhile a red screen on the market indexes. Only slightly down, likely only some profit taking after yesterday’s over 500 point rally.
There is talk of a bubble in the markets. Is it a “look out below” moment?
Cal
Meanwhile a red screen on the market indexes. Only slightly down, likely only some profit taking after yesterday’s over 500 point rally.
There is talk of a bubble in the markets. Is it a “look out below” moment?
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
After grandson daycare I had the opportunity to open up the new amp, upgrade and change out the mini switch for the 1/2 power, and eliminate the lug connections with solder connections.
I inspected the construction and layout, not mil-spec, but satisfactory. No cold solder joints or obvious bad connections. When I tested the 5 lugs that were for the output tranny and speaker connections 3 out of the 5 I was able to pull the lugs off by hand. Obvious not a durable connection, and then on top of that lugs rely on a tight connection and friction.
Know that vacuum tubes do not like operating without a load. Pretty much you can blow up your power section, and that includes the output tranny which is mucho expensive to replace.
I’m glad I checked these connections and upgraded them. All I can say is “Made In America,” actually California.
Anyways I knew I was not buying a Hiwatt or Matchless product that literally follows Mil-Spec. This was not an expensive premium amp, and I got not only my money’s worth, but also got what I paid for. This was not an expensive lux amp, and actually for the price I would say the quality is there, and enough quality that not only it is a good deal, but I also got my money’s worth.
My soldering these critical connections is a pretty minor thing.
I also took note of the components and their values to gain an understanding of the input section, the power section, and the power supply.
So I plugged in the amp and did a “smoke test” which is a funny way to say check for any mistakes, and to see that everything still works. I had settings on the guitar and amp recorded so it was easy to replicate my earlier tone tweaking, but I found the sound somewhat changed for the better, somehow richer still, more defined, and a little brighter.
Could there have been some voltage drop on those output tranny connections, and the speaker connections? Maybe? Anyways I say the amp now is even better than yesterday. I had to dial down the treble knob on the amp to find my sweet spot. Also had to slightly lower the volume. This kinda goes in-line with some loss of signal due to marginal connections.
So now the amp definitely is more solid and sounds better. I also figured out that the 1/2 power switch simply is a big 10 watt resistor that parallels the output tube cathode bias resistor to basically halve the value. The output section kinda gets rebiased, and the tubes are run cooler and generate less power.
I played around a bit with the full power setting, and pretty much this is a kinda loud amp. I love it. This amp has balls and a big bottom.
Cal
I inspected the construction and layout, not mil-spec, but satisfactory. No cold solder joints or obvious bad connections. When I tested the 5 lugs that were for the output tranny and speaker connections 3 out of the 5 I was able to pull the lugs off by hand. Obvious not a durable connection, and then on top of that lugs rely on a tight connection and friction.
Know that vacuum tubes do not like operating without a load. Pretty much you can blow up your power section, and that includes the output tranny which is mucho expensive to replace.
I’m glad I checked these connections and upgraded them. All I can say is “Made In America,” actually California.
Anyways I knew I was not buying a Hiwatt or Matchless product that literally follows Mil-Spec. This was not an expensive premium amp, and I got not only my money’s worth, but also got what I paid for. This was not an expensive lux amp, and actually for the price I would say the quality is there, and enough quality that not only it is a good deal, but I also got my money’s worth.
My soldering these critical connections is a pretty minor thing.
I also took note of the components and their values to gain an understanding of the input section, the power section, and the power supply.
So I plugged in the amp and did a “smoke test” which is a funny way to say check for any mistakes, and to see that everything still works. I had settings on the guitar and amp recorded so it was easy to replicate my earlier tone tweaking, but I found the sound somewhat changed for the better, somehow richer still, more defined, and a little brighter.
Could there have been some voltage drop on those output tranny connections, and the speaker connections? Maybe? Anyways I say the amp now is even better than yesterday. I had to dial down the treble knob on the amp to find my sweet spot. Also had to slightly lower the volume. This kinda goes in-line with some loss of signal due to marginal connections.
So now the amp definitely is more solid and sounds better. I also figured out that the 1/2 power switch simply is a big 10 watt resistor that parallels the output tube cathode bias resistor to basically halve the value. The output section kinda gets rebiased, and the tubes are run cooler and generate less power.
I played around a bit with the full power setting, and pretty much this is a kinda loud amp. I love it. This amp has balls and a big bottom.
Cal