Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Right now a gentle and peaceful snow is beginning to fall.
The back-backyard fast feeder was filled this morning, and around noon was nearly emptied. I performed a refill. The birds must know of the snowfall, or sense it. They are getting ready for the ground to get covered, and their foraging to become more difficult.
Cal
The back-backyard fast feeder was filled this morning, and around noon was nearly emptied. I performed a refill. The birds must know of the snowfall, or sense it. They are getting ready for the ground to get covered, and their foraging to become more difficult.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
My understanding of economics and finance suggests I don’t really understand the current market at all. Pretty much the amount of leverage, debt and deficits which are kinda maxed out defy gravity.
To me makes no sense, but I am a man who lives well below my means and has only manageable debt at very favorable interest rates that either are at a record low (2.125% student loans) or a mortgage well below 3%.
Of course being a home owner adds mucho stability.
Crypto currencies have such wide swings that it is hard to believe that they have true value and are not much more than a speculation. To me a Ponzi like investment where wealth was created from nothing.
I see how the dollar and the U.S. economy is the dominant player in the market, but that does not mean this domination will persist under trade war conditions.
I can not see growth when clearly a slowdown is near. Kinda hope and false belief that trade-wars and tariffs are a good thing, and why worry about inflation or debt loads.
La-la-la and La-la-la. See no evil, hear no evil…
Am I the only person who feels the discomfort? Am I deaf and blind?
Am I insane, or is the world crazy?
Cal
To me makes no sense, but I am a man who lives well below my means and has only manageable debt at very favorable interest rates that either are at a record low (2.125% student loans) or a mortgage well below 3%.
Of course being a home owner adds mucho stability.
Crypto currencies have such wide swings that it is hard to believe that they have true value and are not much more than a speculation. To me a Ponzi like investment where wealth was created from nothing.
I see how the dollar and the U.S. economy is the dominant player in the market, but that does not mean this domination will persist under trade war conditions.
I can not see growth when clearly a slowdown is near. Kinda hope and false belief that trade-wars and tariffs are a good thing, and why worry about inflation or debt loads.
La-la-la and La-la-la. See no evil, hear no evil…
Am I the only person who feels the discomfort? Am I deaf and blind?
Am I insane, or is the world crazy?
Cal
Prest_400
Multiformat
Good to hear about the treatment plan, and interesting that after the surgery, the hormone treatment is an injection every 3 months.
I guess varies on the measure but chemo I have heard can be quite nasty, while radiotherapy depends but can be much more local.
It's strange that 2025 is about a week away.
About cyclical natures, there are some H5N1 news. Oh well, what was 2020?
I guess varies on the measure but chemo I have heard can be quite nasty, while radiotherapy depends but can be much more local.
The world is crazy!
It's strange that 2025 is about a week away.
About cyclical natures, there are some H5N1 news. Oh well, what was 2020?
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A flattering remark from one of “Maggie’s” brothers: kidding around Rob said maybe the hormone therapy will take me down enough that I will be like a normal man. LOL.
Pretty much I may be a skinny bitch, but I have big balls.
Maggie openly states she is fearful I might become a crazy bitch. LOL.
She laughs, but there is that possibility.
Bird Flu today can now be found in cow milk.
If a further Chinese slowdown happens, or if Europe collapses, pretty much oil prices could collapse as well. This would be mucho bad in the U.S. because not only do we export food, but also energy.
Lots of thug behavior going on. There is a threat to Europe, buy our energy or face severe tariffs. Pretty much blackmail or is it extortion? This is to cut off Canadian or Mexican energy exports. Hmmm… Is this a bad idea? Could this have unintended consequences?
Pretty much Big Balls Calvin would say alright and buy what I need from Canada and Mexico. Oh-well. If you want to be my enemy then expect a mucho rude insulting response. Don’t game me…
So I hope there are leaders and heads of state that know how to take down a bully. Draw the line and fight. Don’t be a wimp.
I finally cut down the extra/surplus height on the nut. Also loosened and removed the pickups to add some strategic compression foam to level the pickups and better secure their position.
Wow. This guitar is kinda crazy great. The neck is mucho thick like my thigh, but it feels and plays great. Originally I thought I could thin down the neck in the future, but it plays so great that I think that would be a mistake. I think the chunky neck adds to the sound.
Pretty much the guitar feels like a weapon. Very solid build.
I love it.
Cal
Pretty much I may be a skinny bitch, but I have big balls.
Maggie openly states she is fearful I might become a crazy bitch. LOL.
She laughs, but there is that possibility.
Bird Flu today can now be found in cow milk.
If a further Chinese slowdown happens, or if Europe collapses, pretty much oil prices could collapse as well. This would be mucho bad in the U.S. because not only do we export food, but also energy.
Lots of thug behavior going on. There is a threat to Europe, buy our energy or face severe tariffs. Pretty much blackmail or is it extortion? This is to cut off Canadian or Mexican energy exports. Hmmm… Is this a bad idea? Could this have unintended consequences?
Pretty much Big Balls Calvin would say alright and buy what I need from Canada and Mexico. Oh-well. If you want to be my enemy then expect a mucho rude insulting response. Don’t game me…
So I hope there are leaders and heads of state that know how to take down a bully. Draw the line and fight. Don’t be a wimp.
I finally cut down the extra/surplus height on the nut. Also loosened and removed the pickups to add some strategic compression foam to level the pickups and better secure their position.
Wow. This guitar is kinda crazy great. The neck is mucho thick like my thigh, but it feels and plays great. Originally I thought I could thin down the neck in the future, but it plays so great that I think that would be a mistake. I think the chunky neck adds to the sound.
Pretty much the guitar feels like a weapon. Very solid build.
I love it.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
I’m still fatigued. Pretty much now is an after-effect of the month of uncertainty.
The snow here in the Hudson Valley so far is just a lite dusting.
Tomorrow looks like a family Christmas gathering. Bah-Humbug if you know what I mean…
Saw many Cardinals today around the bird feeders. Lots of birds. Glad we fed them.
A government shut down looms. Not what we need. There will be a price to pay…
A Christmas shutdown: the government suddenly is the Grinch.
Cal
The snow here in the Hudson Valley so far is just a lite dusting.
Tomorrow looks like a family Christmas gathering. Bah-Humbug if you know what I mean…
Saw many Cardinals today around the bird feeders. Lots of birds. Glad we fed them.
A government shut down looms. Not what we need. There will be a price to pay…
A Christmas shutdown: the government suddenly is the Grinch.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A Christmas Bonus: “Maggie’s” book, “How To Be Old” was released in March of 2024 (New York Public Library); last time she checked was there was only 708 copies left of the first printing; and her book just got on ELLE magazines list of best nonfiction books 2024.
I suspect that there will have to be a rush second printing.
The claim to fame just does not want to die. The list is 40 books long and includes big name writers. A pretty big honor to be among them.
WOW…
Cal
I suspect that there will have to be a rush second printing.
The claim to fame just does not want to die. The list is 40 books long and includes big name writers. A pretty big honor to be among them.
WOW…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The Grinch (U.S. Government) decides not to steal Christmas.
Still has to get Senate approval…
Tick-tick-tick.
What a way to kill the Christmas spirit.
Cal
Still has to get Senate approval…
Tick-tick-tick.
What a way to kill the Christmas spirit.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The most recent creation, the blonde 2-pickup Cabronita, is turning out to be a mighty hot guitar. Pretty hard to put it down. Plays so well, is interesting looking too boot, and seems to project a clear vibe. Pretty much a signature guitar, even though there are man Cabronita’s out there, this one has destination.
I’m a very lucky guy…
This seems to be a great guitar and it keeps on getting better. Still have to optimize the pickup height to dial in the tone.
Crazy good…
Cal
I’m a very lucky guy…
This seems to be a great guitar and it keeps on getting better. Still have to optimize the pickup height to dial in the tone.
Crazy good…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Took the 5 1/8 pound prime rib roast out of it’s wrappings and made 4 steaks and two ribs. Pretty much a Christmas meal and a New Year’s feast.
The normal price was something like $82.00, but I paid something like $30.75 or $5.99 a pound with the coupon.
I’d like to go back and grab another. They say limit one per customer, but pretty much EZ-PZ to hit them again, but “Maggie” says we have to eat the steaks before the year is over because she is going on a diet.
At 5’2” and 120-125 pounds she carries some weight, but is not huge.
Anyways for Americans this year the New Year’s resolution is to pay down debt, not loose weight, or get fit. Good luck with that. Not so easy to do, and if enough Americans tighten their belts the economy surely would slow down or stall. It is at a point where push comes to shove eventually something has to give.
Usually a recession causes belt tightening, but maybe this time belt tightening could induce a recession if Americans get serious. Anyways most people just talk, they don’t walk the talk. They lie to themselves…
The Grinch almost stealing Christmas was a close call.
Spend-spend-spend has to come to an end.
I have no debt I need to pay down. In a little more than 2 years when I’m 69 I will have payed off my low interest rate student loans that literally were the historical record lowest. In July 2006, a year after graduating the New School with my MFA in creative writing I refinanced.
Greenspan was at the FED and he had just lowered rates. Pretty much perfect timing, and “I caught a falling knife,” as they say. Mighty lucky. Locked in a 2.125% fixed interest rate. Pretty much “free-money.”
Don’t forget that Greenspan’s record low rates helped fuel and create the housing crisis, the credit crisis, and subsequently the chronic housing shortage that prevails today 18 years later.
I kinda know my future and what I have to do. Pretty much I have to do mucho cardio to burn the calories and loose my excess weight and to get and remain trim. Relying on my bulk of lean muscle mass is coming to an end for me. Pretty much I’ll have to burn calories every day. I can be disciplined that way.
My hope is Maggie goes to the gym with me, and will use the rowing machine. Pumping blood also helps brain function and provides better sleep. Can help prevent Alzheimer’s Disease.
So while most Americans will attempt to pay down debt, I will initiate and embrace the standard New Year’s resolution of loosing about 5 pounds of weight, and embrace cardio fitness.
I think I will pass on loading up on more steak.
I used a measuring cup and measured how much steel cut oats I consume in the morning. They say 1/4 cup of steel-cut oats is 5 grams of protein. Pretty much I cook a full cup, so I get 20 grams of protein that is plant based. I also use double skimmed milk that has double the protein and no fat.
I eat three eggs daily, but only one yoke since Trader Joe’s no longer sells eggs.
Each 1/4 cup also provides 14% of the recommended daily intake of fiber, so multiply that out by 4 and I get 56% of my fiber needs. 8% of iron with the math becomes almost 1/3rd of the MDR. Not much more nutrition, just traces really.
So the steel-cut oats can be a very useful staple. I generally at least add a banana, and often fresh berries.
The battery vest is actually good to avoid triggering hunger. It helps me do intermittent fasting. When I get cold, hunger gets triggered. No different than the birds I observe outside when it is cold. The other thing the vest prevents is the fatigue and tiredness that happens in the late afternoon when warmth of the day decays.
The vest is an aid in adaptation to the cold that forestalls triggering hunger and the impulse to refuel.
I mentioned this to Maggie, and she is going to see if it works the same way for her.
Cal
The normal price was something like $82.00, but I paid something like $30.75 or $5.99 a pound with the coupon.
I’d like to go back and grab another. They say limit one per customer, but pretty much EZ-PZ to hit them again, but “Maggie” says we have to eat the steaks before the year is over because she is going on a diet.
At 5’2” and 120-125 pounds she carries some weight, but is not huge.
Anyways for Americans this year the New Year’s resolution is to pay down debt, not loose weight, or get fit. Good luck with that. Not so easy to do, and if enough Americans tighten their belts the economy surely would slow down or stall. It is at a point where push comes to shove eventually something has to give.
Usually a recession causes belt tightening, but maybe this time belt tightening could induce a recession if Americans get serious. Anyways most people just talk, they don’t walk the talk. They lie to themselves…
The Grinch almost stealing Christmas was a close call.
Spend-spend-spend has to come to an end.
I have no debt I need to pay down. In a little more than 2 years when I’m 69 I will have payed off my low interest rate student loans that literally were the historical record lowest. In July 2006, a year after graduating the New School with my MFA in creative writing I refinanced.
Greenspan was at the FED and he had just lowered rates. Pretty much perfect timing, and “I caught a falling knife,” as they say. Mighty lucky. Locked in a 2.125% fixed interest rate. Pretty much “free-money.”
Don’t forget that Greenspan’s record low rates helped fuel and create the housing crisis, the credit crisis, and subsequently the chronic housing shortage that prevails today 18 years later.
I kinda know my future and what I have to do. Pretty much I have to do mucho cardio to burn the calories and loose my excess weight and to get and remain trim. Relying on my bulk of lean muscle mass is coming to an end for me. Pretty much I’ll have to burn calories every day. I can be disciplined that way.
My hope is Maggie goes to the gym with me, and will use the rowing machine. Pumping blood also helps brain function and provides better sleep. Can help prevent Alzheimer’s Disease.
So while most Americans will attempt to pay down debt, I will initiate and embrace the standard New Year’s resolution of loosing about 5 pounds of weight, and embrace cardio fitness.
I think I will pass on loading up on more steak.
I used a measuring cup and measured how much steel cut oats I consume in the morning. They say 1/4 cup of steel-cut oats is 5 grams of protein. Pretty much I cook a full cup, so I get 20 grams of protein that is plant based. I also use double skimmed milk that has double the protein and no fat.
I eat three eggs daily, but only one yoke since Trader Joe’s no longer sells eggs.
Each 1/4 cup also provides 14% of the recommended daily intake of fiber, so multiply that out by 4 and I get 56% of my fiber needs. 8% of iron with the math becomes almost 1/3rd of the MDR. Not much more nutrition, just traces really.
So the steel-cut oats can be a very useful staple. I generally at least add a banana, and often fresh berries.
The battery vest is actually good to avoid triggering hunger. It helps me do intermittent fasting. When I get cold, hunger gets triggered. No different than the birds I observe outside when it is cold. The other thing the vest prevents is the fatigue and tiredness that happens in the late afternoon when warmth of the day decays.
The vest is an aid in adaptation to the cold that forestalls triggering hunger and the impulse to refuel.
I mentioned this to Maggie, and she is going to see if it works the same way for her.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The swamp ash Teles are brighter than the alder Teles. This promotes different playing styles. With the swamp ash I tend to pick at the end of the neck to mellow and tame the innate brightness, but with the alder closer to the bridge to bring out and cultivate the treble.
Anyways radically different. Not really sure which I love more. Perhaps I love both.
Anyways this can happen. Ever have two girlfriends and love them both? Pretty much you love them for their differences. Anyways when this happened back in college to me I was open about it. I was not some cheating dog sneaking around. The girls knew each other.
So in the end I could not handle the frenzy that happened when the two women competed sexually for me. I kinda got depleted, exhausted, and pretty much had to let my organ heal.
Oh-well…
Cal
Anyways radically different. Not really sure which I love more. Perhaps I love both.
Anyways this can happen. Ever have two girlfriends and love them both? Pretty much you love them for their differences. Anyways when this happened back in college to me I was open about it. I was not some cheating dog sneaking around. The girls knew each other.
So in the end I could not handle the frenzy that happened when the two women competed sexually for me. I kinda got depleted, exhausted, and pretty much had to let my organ heal.
Oh-well…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Had to shovel about 2 inches of snow. It is still snowing in the Hudson Valley.
Fed our birds. They are binge eating…
Again the heated vest came in handy.
A family gathering today. Bah-humbug…
Andrew and Joan have a nice antique book case that is good for use in our dining room to add to another storage cabinate to create a hutch, or could be utilized in “Maggie’s” future office which is the smallest bedroom that has a view of the back-backyard and the marsh. Pretty much a gift…
Pretty much she is not so keen on her shed with a space heater anymore. Woman-factor… Oh-well. Glad I didn’t spent money…
So now I’m entranced with big necks. I see how the ergonomics work for me. My hands are sized “extra-medium” but I’m able to do the thumb wrap like a blues player, so I switch between the thumb wrap and a classical position with my thumb directly behind the neck.
Pretty much the fat neck works out great for this style. I think for the Strat and the alder Tele bodies that I’ll outfit them with big fat necks. I also love the roasted maple look and feel.
The fingerboard though is collecting dirt and is soiled. Cool on this 2-pickup Cabronita, but I think on the Strat I’ll put a clear coat to prevent the buildup to make it look like a resemble a Fender factory guitar.
Awesome. A lot of flair and style is emerging. I find this exciting, exhilarating, and inspiring. Pretty much I’m just being me.
Cal
Fed our birds. They are binge eating…
Again the heated vest came in handy.
A family gathering today. Bah-humbug…
Andrew and Joan have a nice antique book case that is good for use in our dining room to add to another storage cabinate to create a hutch, or could be utilized in “Maggie’s” future office which is the smallest bedroom that has a view of the back-backyard and the marsh. Pretty much a gift…
Pretty much she is not so keen on her shed with a space heater anymore. Woman-factor… Oh-well. Glad I didn’t spent money…
So now I’m entranced with big necks. I see how the ergonomics work for me. My hands are sized “extra-medium” but I’m able to do the thumb wrap like a blues player, so I switch between the thumb wrap and a classical position with my thumb directly behind the neck.
Pretty much the fat neck works out great for this style. I think for the Strat and the alder Tele bodies that I’ll outfit them with big fat necks. I also love the roasted maple look and feel.
The fingerboard though is collecting dirt and is soiled. Cool on this 2-pickup Cabronita, but I think on the Strat I’ll put a clear coat to prevent the buildup to make it look like a resemble a Fender factory guitar.
Awesome. A lot of flair and style is emerging. I find this exciting, exhilarating, and inspiring. Pretty much I’m just being me.
Cal
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Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Excellent news about your scan, the treatment, the prognosis, and most of all your outlook.
Phil
Phil
Nokton48
Veteran
Morning Devil Cal,
Excellent news regarding your medical issues. I think you are absolutely right about not overspending right now. Crazy crap up head, look out below.
SONY DSC by Nokton48, on Flickr
Standard Plaubel Makiflex Number Three arrived yesterday in a bundle from a shoppe in Prague. Good conditioned body fully functional, comes with 135 Tessar on Plaubel Recessed Board. Also a 240mm Tele-Xenar in Compur shutter, I transplanted this Tele-Xenar onto a 3D printed Peco Junior board printed in Italy. Shown on my Long Rail Peco Junior, camera focused carefully at infinity, plenty of rail available for closer in shooting. Need to put yellow medium filters and lens hoods on these new lenses, and try 'em out. 135 is perfectly collimated to focus just a teeny past infinity, so perfectly constructed IMO. Quite a bit of maching skill shown here, many of my Makiflexes from Prague have been tweeked and modded. Very clever technicians. The Stovepipe might be legit Olde Makiflex, I remember seeing one other, so maybe? Maybe in some literature too? Both of these cameras take Plaubel Makina Film Backs and Planfilm Holders.
Makiflex 4x5 SHANGHAI 100 by Nokton48, on Flickr
Playing with the 4x5 Skier Box. Sony Nex C3 16mp 50mm Zeiss Touit Plaubel Makiflex Shanghai 100 4x5 Makiflex SK Grimes One Off Graphic Holder Back. Replenished HC110B Replenished Unicolor 8x10 Print Drum. Full Sun Exposure Test.
Excellent news regarding your medical issues. I think you are absolutely right about not overspending right now. Crazy crap up head, look out below.
SONY DSC by Nokton48, on FlickrStandard Plaubel Makiflex Number Three arrived yesterday in a bundle from a shoppe in Prague. Good conditioned body fully functional, comes with 135 Tessar on Plaubel Recessed Board. Also a 240mm Tele-Xenar in Compur shutter, I transplanted this Tele-Xenar onto a 3D printed Peco Junior board printed in Italy. Shown on my Long Rail Peco Junior, camera focused carefully at infinity, plenty of rail available for closer in shooting. Need to put yellow medium filters and lens hoods on these new lenses, and try 'em out. 135 is perfectly collimated to focus just a teeny past infinity, so perfectly constructed IMO. Quite a bit of maching skill shown here, many of my Makiflexes from Prague have been tweeked and modded. Very clever technicians. The Stovepipe might be legit Olde Makiflex, I remember seeing one other, so maybe? Maybe in some literature too? Both of these cameras take Plaubel Makina Film Backs and Planfilm Holders.
Makiflex 4x5 SHANGHAI 100 by Nokton48, on FlickrPlaying with the 4x5 Skier Box. Sony Nex C3 16mp 50mm Zeiss Touit Plaubel Makiflex Shanghai 100 4x5 Makiflex SK Grimes One Off Graphic Holder Back. Replenished HC110B Replenished Unicolor 8x10 Print Drum. Full Sun Exposure Test.
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Devil Dan,
You amaze me.
That double bubble levels are mighty cool.
I imagine kinda what happened during the Credit Crisis of 2008 will happen again, but this time on steroids. Best to keep your ammo dry as they say.
I believe treasures and heirlooms will be available for little money. In my case though my house is already full. I don’t need to consume or buy more. Happy-happy. Overconsumption is a mistake.
Cal
You amaze me.
That double bubble levels are mighty cool.
I imagine kinda what happened during the Credit Crisis of 2008 will happen again, but this time on steroids. Best to keep your ammo dry as they say.
I believe treasures and heirlooms will be available for little money. In my case though my house is already full. I don’t need to consume or buy more. Happy-happy. Overconsumption is a mistake.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Tonight is a winter solstice party.
The snow and the play of light and dark is timely.
I’ll be gifting that shell wreath made from North Carolina shells to the beach house owners (Jersey Shore).
Cal
The snow and the play of light and dark is timely.
I’ll be gifting that shell wreath made from North Carolina shells to the beach house owners (Jersey Shore).
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The family gathering has been performed. For “Maggie” and I this means Christmas is already over. The kids opened their presents last week, and now, today they are traveling to FLA.
Maggie feels separation anxiety knowing that it will be the new year before we see the kids again.
The Cancer smut is out.
I feel residual pent up fatigue from the month of waiting. Now will be the opportunity to replenish and starting to get serious with the gym and exercise.
Maggie tells me that the hormone therapy might be a forever thing. I only heard 18-24 months. Pretty much selective hearing on my part.
The 45x25x12 4-shelve glass doored bookcase made of oak is really a wonderful antique. Andrew pointed out that it likely was refinished and pointed out on the back the likely original darker color. The lighter color though goes with the oak antiques we have in the dining room that are in fact from the arts and crafts era.
Presently I feel old and I just want to relax. We will likely blow off the winter solstice party tonight to recover. What I am trying to say is that the past month has been tougher than I though and now I feel it. The fatigue kinda comes as an aftershock.
So now a peaceful Christmas. Prime rib steak dinner. Just feeding and watching our birds. The Christmas spirit is peaceful relaxing.
Cal
Maggie feels separation anxiety knowing that it will be the new year before we see the kids again.
The Cancer smut is out.
I feel residual pent up fatigue from the month of waiting. Now will be the opportunity to replenish and starting to get serious with the gym and exercise.
Maggie tells me that the hormone therapy might be a forever thing. I only heard 18-24 months. Pretty much selective hearing on my part.
The 45x25x12 4-shelve glass doored bookcase made of oak is really a wonderful antique. Andrew pointed out that it likely was refinished and pointed out on the back the likely original darker color. The lighter color though goes with the oak antiques we have in the dining room that are in fact from the arts and crafts era.
Presently I feel old and I just want to relax. We will likely blow off the winter solstice party tonight to recover. What I am trying to say is that the past month has been tougher than I though and now I feel it. The fatigue kinda comes as an aftershock.
So now a peaceful Christmas. Prime rib steak dinner. Just feeding and watching our birds. The Christmas spirit is peaceful relaxing.
Cal
ASA 32
Well-known
You deserve some rest and an opportunity to renew your spirit. Be well and know there are many people you don’t even know who wish you well.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Robert,
Many thanks.
I just wanted to share that in times of trouble that often feelings and emotions get displaced, but then later things set in. Pretty much at times we can’t really fully or even partially react to the circumstances.
Sometimes pretty much one escapes reality…
Then I wonder all these people driving new cars they really can’t afford, all these people living beyond their means, and people saddled with huge debt loads. Are these people living in reality? What are they thinking? Or maybe they are not thinking at all…
Anyways lots of disassociation going on. I am aware that I do it.
Sometimes reality is too harsh to bare.
I am aware that there are more challenges ahead. My recovery requires action and a cool head. That is why I’m glad the Christmas stress is behind us. Right now I need a gentle life.
Cal
Many thanks.
I just wanted to share that in times of trouble that often feelings and emotions get displaced, but then later things set in. Pretty much at times we can’t really fully or even partially react to the circumstances.
Sometimes pretty much one escapes reality…
Then I wonder all these people driving new cars they really can’t afford, all these people living beyond their means, and people saddled with huge debt loads. Are these people living in reality? What are they thinking? Or maybe they are not thinking at all…
Anyways lots of disassociation going on. I am aware that I do it.
Sometimes reality is too harsh to bare.
I am aware that there are more challenges ahead. My recovery requires action and a cool head. That is why I’m glad the Christmas stress is behind us. Right now I need a gentle life.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Single digit temperatures. I am using the big battery that ended up being “free” from the defective hooded heated pancho that “Maggie” had to fight for a refund.
It seems that I have become hypersensitive to the cold. Part of this is due to caloric restriction. The heat offsets the hunger and urge to binge on food to stay warm. The heated vest counters the winter triggers that help ensure survival.
In me the cold triggers fatigue. Part of this is my Cold Agglutinin Disease. When my red blood cells Hemolize (die off) they produce a sedative like M-zine that induces sleepiness and fatigue. This happens every winter and is natural for me.
So today about half of 30 year mortgages are under 3.75%. This pretty much created the “locked-in” effect where low mortgage interest rates inhibit churn and turnover rates. Effectively the housing shortage is made worse by making the housing market tighter.
Use to be that every 6-7 years home owners sold their present home and canceled their mortgages. New homes would then be purchased with equity gained, but now that cycle has been broken. People are “locked-in.” Some say the average 30 year mortgage cancellation is now 8 years, but I see that number growing, and the clear trend will be less and less mortgage cancellations.
More and more 30-year mortgages I think will likely go full term…
The forecast is that mortgage interest rates will remain high in the 6 1/2%- 7% range.
Historically, looking over decades, the long-term average 30 year mortgage rate is actually 7.49% believe it or not. Also my dad’s VA mortgage was a low around 4% mortgage. The problem today is that there is a serious housing shortage due to under-building since the 2007-2008 economic collapse, credit crisis, and housing crisis.
Pretty much about a 15 year “overhang” that would require at least 15 years of serious and sustained “over-building” just to balance the supply and demand. Of course this would require a stable 15 years of prosperity. I don’t see AI doing that like the electronics and communications revolution that basically led to a balanced budget and economic surplus here in the U.S.
I dug into the Quantitative easing to gain understanding. During QE usually/generally distressed assets are bought by the FED, but for the past 15 years the FED has been buying bonds that have less risks. The idea is that the distressed assets usually recover value and eventually can be unloaded and sold at a profit. An example of distressed assets would be Mortgage Backed Securities.
Pretty much the FED bought U.S. Bonds in vast amounts to bid them up. The takeaway is that the effect was to create a supply/demand offset that kept/caused U.S. bonds to maintain value: a kinda artificial subsidy or offset of course; or in Calzone speak a market manipulation to create demand by manipulating scarcity.
So with the FED sitting on a portfolio of bonds during an inflationary time, makes these old bonds worth less, than the newer bonds that offer higher interest rates. This also gets compounded because rolling over the lower yielding old bonds into newer debt is more costly. This old debt becomes a liability and presents real losses.
I repeated and outlined above the real reason why the FED can’t really kill inflation, and can only temper or moderate it, but also know that inflation or debasing or devaluing a currency is a solution to eliminate debt.
An understanding of this can be explained by our under 3% 30 year mortgage. I can see the real inflation rate being north of the interest rates we have locked in. Remember that over the years of the Pandemic food prices have increased over 25%. The FED does not count this…
So pretty much the value of the future dollars goes down as inflation erodes purchasing power. There is no sense to pay off our mortgage early. Same with my student loan at the historical low 2.125% secured in 2006 in the era of “Free-Money.”
So ideally the FED can usually offset loses with gains to diminish a bloated portfolio that basically stabilized things, but because our FED pumped up the bond market too much, and didn’t buy distressed assets at bargain prices, and in fact bought safe assets during a time of crisis that are now deemed were costly the FED is now sitting on losses (dead-money).
So the opposite of quantitative easing is quantitative tightening. Pretty much reducing the size of the massive portfolio the FED built up over 15 years of quantitative easing. Not easy to do, especially now because those safe bonds now represent losses.
Know that our interest payments on these bonds is a problem and is substantial. The reality is that the FED can’t afford to fight the war on inflation because it lacks dry ammo.
The situation is/was like a consumer using a credit card to pay off another credit card. Pretty much not so different than a Ponzi scheme that is unsustainable.
So why are mortgage rates kinda hovering and going sideways? Pretty much there is too much “credit-risk.” Someone buying a home at 7% basically might not be able to meet the 30 year obligation of timely payments.
Clearly the FED is in a bind sitting on a portfolio of losses. Who will buy our debt? Not China anymore, they can’t afford to subsidize our insane consumption anymore, and they are experiencing a serious economic collapse.
China used their dollar reserve to purchase physical gold as a store of wealth. Central Banks followed suit buying gold bullion after China. Gold as a commodity BTW is priced in dollars.
Again, “Who will buy our debt?”
Central Banks are hoarding gold already instead of building up dollar reserves… The real message here is that the Central Banks already don’t see enduring value in the U.S. Dollar. Easy to see the trend if you look into the long-term, basically there is “Credit-Risk” of not getting paid back and increasing chances of default.
Of course this situation with the value of the dollar extends to consumer credit and the housing market.
Don’t think Europe will bail us out. There are serious problems in Europe as in China.
So when you follow the money things become more grounded in the long-term outlook of a very muddled future that is devolving and not looking so grand. Meanwhile the stock markets are imbalanced and are insane.
AI is the reason why I got mistaken for a man who had a bad day at work and beat the crap out of his boss. AI again is the reason why I again was mistaken for this Colorado man for a workman’s comp claim. Pretty much two AI errors and mistakes. Point here is that this AI is not adding productivity, and in fact is a further indicator of dysfunction. BTW I still get the AI generated notices for a monthly meeting with a Probation Officer.
Also have you noticed the level of intrusion, spam, marketing, profiling, ID fishing, targeting, and scamming going on?
I highly suggest freezing your credit. Also there have been real data breaches, and there are scams that use the pretense of a data breach to gather personal information to steal your identity and promote theft and fraud.
Don’t fall into being a victim, and protect yourself. Heed my “NetSpend” alert.
Cal
It seems that I have become hypersensitive to the cold. Part of this is due to caloric restriction. The heat offsets the hunger and urge to binge on food to stay warm. The heated vest counters the winter triggers that help ensure survival.
In me the cold triggers fatigue. Part of this is my Cold Agglutinin Disease. When my red blood cells Hemolize (die off) they produce a sedative like M-zine that induces sleepiness and fatigue. This happens every winter and is natural for me.
So today about half of 30 year mortgages are under 3.75%. This pretty much created the “locked-in” effect where low mortgage interest rates inhibit churn and turnover rates. Effectively the housing shortage is made worse by making the housing market tighter.
Use to be that every 6-7 years home owners sold their present home and canceled their mortgages. New homes would then be purchased with equity gained, but now that cycle has been broken. People are “locked-in.” Some say the average 30 year mortgage cancellation is now 8 years, but I see that number growing, and the clear trend will be less and less mortgage cancellations.
More and more 30-year mortgages I think will likely go full term…
The forecast is that mortgage interest rates will remain high in the 6 1/2%- 7% range.
Historically, looking over decades, the long-term average 30 year mortgage rate is actually 7.49% believe it or not. Also my dad’s VA mortgage was a low around 4% mortgage. The problem today is that there is a serious housing shortage due to under-building since the 2007-2008 economic collapse, credit crisis, and housing crisis.
Pretty much about a 15 year “overhang” that would require at least 15 years of serious and sustained “over-building” just to balance the supply and demand. Of course this would require a stable 15 years of prosperity. I don’t see AI doing that like the electronics and communications revolution that basically led to a balanced budget and economic surplus here in the U.S.
I dug into the Quantitative easing to gain understanding. During QE usually/generally distressed assets are bought by the FED, but for the past 15 years the FED has been buying bonds that have less risks. The idea is that the distressed assets usually recover value and eventually can be unloaded and sold at a profit. An example of distressed assets would be Mortgage Backed Securities.
Pretty much the FED bought U.S. Bonds in vast amounts to bid them up. The takeaway is that the effect was to create a supply/demand offset that kept/caused U.S. bonds to maintain value: a kinda artificial subsidy or offset of course; or in Calzone speak a market manipulation to create demand by manipulating scarcity.
So with the FED sitting on a portfolio of bonds during an inflationary time, makes these old bonds worth less, than the newer bonds that offer higher interest rates. This also gets compounded because rolling over the lower yielding old bonds into newer debt is more costly. This old debt becomes a liability and presents real losses.
I repeated and outlined above the real reason why the FED can’t really kill inflation, and can only temper or moderate it, but also know that inflation or debasing or devaluing a currency is a solution to eliminate debt.
An understanding of this can be explained by our under 3% 30 year mortgage. I can see the real inflation rate being north of the interest rates we have locked in. Remember that over the years of the Pandemic food prices have increased over 25%. The FED does not count this…
So pretty much the value of the future dollars goes down as inflation erodes purchasing power. There is no sense to pay off our mortgage early. Same with my student loan at the historical low 2.125% secured in 2006 in the era of “Free-Money.”
So ideally the FED can usually offset loses with gains to diminish a bloated portfolio that basically stabilized things, but because our FED pumped up the bond market too much, and didn’t buy distressed assets at bargain prices, and in fact bought safe assets during a time of crisis that are now deemed were costly the FED is now sitting on losses (dead-money).
So the opposite of quantitative easing is quantitative tightening. Pretty much reducing the size of the massive portfolio the FED built up over 15 years of quantitative easing. Not easy to do, especially now because those safe bonds now represent losses.
Know that our interest payments on these bonds is a problem and is substantial. The reality is that the FED can’t afford to fight the war on inflation because it lacks dry ammo.
The situation is/was like a consumer using a credit card to pay off another credit card. Pretty much not so different than a Ponzi scheme that is unsustainable.
So why are mortgage rates kinda hovering and going sideways? Pretty much there is too much “credit-risk.” Someone buying a home at 7% basically might not be able to meet the 30 year obligation of timely payments.
Clearly the FED is in a bind sitting on a portfolio of losses. Who will buy our debt? Not China anymore, they can’t afford to subsidize our insane consumption anymore, and they are experiencing a serious economic collapse.
China used their dollar reserve to purchase physical gold as a store of wealth. Central Banks followed suit buying gold bullion after China. Gold as a commodity BTW is priced in dollars.
Again, “Who will buy our debt?”
Central Banks are hoarding gold already instead of building up dollar reserves… The real message here is that the Central Banks already don’t see enduring value in the U.S. Dollar. Easy to see the trend if you look into the long-term, basically there is “Credit-Risk” of not getting paid back and increasing chances of default.
Of course this situation with the value of the dollar extends to consumer credit and the housing market.
Don’t think Europe will bail us out. There are serious problems in Europe as in China.
So when you follow the money things become more grounded in the long-term outlook of a very muddled future that is devolving and not looking so grand. Meanwhile the stock markets are imbalanced and are insane.
AI is the reason why I got mistaken for a man who had a bad day at work and beat the crap out of his boss. AI again is the reason why I again was mistaken for this Colorado man for a workman’s comp claim. Pretty much two AI errors and mistakes. Point here is that this AI is not adding productivity, and in fact is a further indicator of dysfunction. BTW I still get the AI generated notices for a monthly meeting with a Probation Officer.
Also have you noticed the level of intrusion, spam, marketing, profiling, ID fishing, targeting, and scamming going on?
I highly suggest freezing your credit. Also there have been real data breaches, and there are scams that use the pretense of a data breach to gather personal information to steal your identity and promote theft and fraud.
Don’t fall into being a victim, and protect yourself. Heed my “NetSpend” alert.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A real estate mogul states that the first time buyer is kinda frozen out of the housing market. He cites the lack of churn that normally happens every 6-8 years with sales that lead to home upgrades and to larger homes. Pretty much the usual cycle that existed previously for 40 years is broken.
Then the Pandemic and the work from home ethic perhaps also changed things forever…
NYC kinda got a refill of renters because home buying is out of reach I suspect, young people basically who I think just got priced out. A different kind of churn than the house buying churn. Consume the energy of the youth of sorts.
Record low mortgage rates are doubtful of returning; housing demand will keep prices elevated; the housing shortage is not a short-term event; historical patterns in the real estate market no longer exist; and pretty much this is a dawn of a new era…
Whether you know it or not we are living through a great transformation in history. An age of shortages, an age of inflation; and an age of instability. Hope you are limber, flexible and agile enough to not suffer consequences.
Cal
Then the Pandemic and the work from home ethic perhaps also changed things forever…
NYC kinda got a refill of renters because home buying is out of reach I suspect, young people basically who I think just got priced out. A different kind of churn than the house buying churn. Consume the energy of the youth of sorts.
Record low mortgage rates are doubtful of returning; housing demand will keep prices elevated; the housing shortage is not a short-term event; historical patterns in the real estate market no longer exist; and pretty much this is a dawn of a new era…
Whether you know it or not we are living through a great transformation in history. An age of shortages, an age of inflation; and an age of instability. Hope you are limber, flexible and agile enough to not suffer consequences.
Cal
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