NYC Journal

[Calzone]

So the speculation of a period of stagflation without a recession was mentioned, and I think this is the likely future outcome.

Economists are downplaying the inflation increase from tariffs, saying that it will only be slight. I don’t think so. That’s not how trade wars work.

I bought 2 dozen eggs at Stop and Shop. $8.19 for large brown eggs.

I think food prices have increased more than 3.3%, I’m not just talking eggs…

Another storm expected tomorrow…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Another good day: Relaxing.

The thing here in retirement is the realm of a child playing comes back to me. Ideas like goals, deadlines, or achievement pretty much no meaning to me. It is as if I am no longer an adult and I reverted back to childhood.

Yesterday cutting a nut on a guitar, over the decades likely have cut thousands of them. I worked in a guitar shop for a while. Why did it take me almost a whole afternoon? Well the first thing is I kinda lost my chops. Been a while since I did the last one, and pretty much I kinda enjoyed just slowing down an being in the moment.

Going in slow motion was actually fun. I kinda had to figure out how I did this in the past with the tools I had on hand. A kinda reverse engineering had to happen. Then the thought came to mind that I am that old…

Then I think about “Maggie” where she kinda imposes and forces out art instead of just living an artistic life. She has pressure and self imposed demands. Me I just play, no audience, no expectations, and I’m having fun. Child’s play…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Some minor tweaking on the sonic blue Thinline. Trim the surplus bone on the top if the nut with a file the next time I change the strings; shim the neck pickup so the top is parallel with the strings; ground the chrome open top cover so it becomes shielding.

One-day…

I kinda love the look and feel of this guitar. Can’t wait to really dial it in with an amp. Next Tuesday looks like an opportunity will come my way.

In the next few days the new threaded barrel replacements should come in the mail from Ohio. This Candy Apple Red Strat is an eyeful and will be another hot guitar.

Kinda exciting. I know I have a boring life, but it is so rich.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A new report says prices will increase 0.5%, inflation will increase 0.3% this year, and 0.5% next year.

Separately it was reported that inflation is presently 2.9% and this number excludes food and energy costs.

So for me here is the tipping point, an over 3% inflation rate is meaningful, and pretty much expected/projected growth in inflation translates into the FED again being “behind the curve.” This is how inflation gets entrenched…

So here we stand looking at 3.2% inflation soon, and then 3.4% next year.

Immigration policy during Obama’s term is said to have cause a 10% jump in home prices. This was in a period over 8 years ago before the housing shortage was identified.

Expect Orange immigration and deportation policy to create home prices to inflate higher and at a faster rate now that a housing shortage has been recognized.

Could home prices escalate say 5%-7% over say the next 3 years to make home prices jump 15%-20%? Could be an exaggeration, but it is a possibility.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Oil prices are now hovering around $70.00. This drop in price is predicting less demand and a slower world economy.

Stagflation kinda just sneaked in, but it has a lot of potential of getting entrenched and falling into a death spiral. We are only into less than a month of Orange Power.

A “look out below” moment is yet to be realized. The masses don’t understand what is going on.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Take note that oil prices increased with the market’s turn into the green.

Pretty much the lessen here is that energy costs, meaning oil, signify and translate into expectations of if the economy is speeding up or slowing down.

Keep an eye on this…

The grandson loves the “loud” looking Candy Apple Red Strat. Maybe after Monday’s phone call the threaded tuner collars I need with the smaller ID thread arrives today.

I kinda discovered MJT Guitars that perform vintage finishes. $325.00 on a raw guitar body, real nitro. $375 for a burst or metallic finish. Hmmm… I have that 1-piece alder body…

The finishes from BloomDoom are alright, a good value, but not as high ended as MJT. Hmmm.

Not much of a premium to upgrade…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Sadly, adults are ordering children’s Happy Meals to save money.

How sad is that?

Also more Americans are falling behind on their debt payments on credit cards and even mortgages. A reported 3.6% delinquency rate.

Not good. As I say, “The money has to come from somewhere.”

Fact is too many Americans are living at or beyond their means and are living paycheck to paycheck.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

AI and Data-Centers will strain the grid. I think a probability of needing a whole house generator is in the future.

The former Indian Point is facing a redevelop plan of making it eventually a Data-Center. The demands for electricity and for water will be huge.

Lucky for me and “Maggie” is that our natural gas line and meter were just updated, and pretty much I did not have to pay for the upgrade.

About $10K-$12K for a Generac. Previously Generac supplied a a 10 year warrantee, and now it is only 7 years.

So pretty much for energy security I see needing a generator.

Pretty much don’t count on private utilities of the government.

Not sure I believe the AI hype.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

In 2 more days it will be a one month since my surgery. Pretty much I get my life back, but no biking until 6-weeks. Oh-well.

“Maggie” online had information that the recovery would be 6 weeks.

I can do push-ups, pull-ups, squats, and work on building my strength back. I have the Concept 2 rowing machine to pump blood and burn calories. I still have some baby fat.

Looking forward to some sweating.

Its a little hard waking up today. I stayed up late last night. Oh-well again.

So far no delivery of my threaded bushings I need for the Strat. Maybe tomorrow.

I guess I’m feeling antsy…

Cal

 

[Retro-Grouch]

In 2 more days it will be a one month since my surgery. Pretty much I get my life back, but no biking until 6-weeks. Oh-well.

“Maggie” online had information that the recovery would be 6 weeks.

I can do push-ups, pull-ups, squats, and work on building my strength back. I have the Concept 2 rowing machine to pump blood and burn calories. I still have some baby fat.

Looking forward to some sweating.

Its a little hard waking up today. I stayed up late last night. Oh-well again.

So far no delivery of my threaded bushings I need for the Strat. Maybe tomorrow.

I guess I’m feeling antsy…

Cal

Um, long before I turned your age, I stopped referring to it as "baby fat". I now call it "geezer fat". 😉

 

[Calzone]

I only have a few hamburgers.

My pants that fit tight are a 28 inch waist. 29’s are loose fitting.

I’m not so old looking. My hair extends about 3 inches below my nipples, and in the morning when I get up my hair makes me look like/resemble Steve Tyler. My sides are grey that’s about it, but my arrogant chin beard is almost all white.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I had a bout of GAS on a unique modded 70th Anniversary Esquire that had a Joe Glaser double “G” and “B” bender and a likely MJT refin.

But I’m officially in “No-Buy” mode. I went to look at the guitar in a local shop, and I figured it would be deal-no-deal where I would try to do a trade.

The Victoria Regal amp I like, but I don’t necessarily love. I acquired that amp by a flat trade of two collectible lap steels that I bought as investments. The shop put them up on Reverb for crazy money, but realize I bought these back in the day for no money decades ago. Oh-well.

Then I bought this small National amp mostly because of it’s pristine condition. This amp dates back to 1964 and has the original Jenson speaker. Kinda rare to find one like this, today clean original ones sell north of $1K, and I bought mine just last year for $700.00 out the door.

The Victoria Regal amp also went up in price by about $400.00. This amp also I only acquired last year.

So basically I have items I don’t need that I can wheel and deal, as well as barter.

So the neck on the 70 Anniversary Esquire was kinda narrow for me. No love there. I did get to check out the Glaser Dual Bender which is kinda cool and works great. A kinda novelty tho kinda make a Tele like a pedal steel. But pretty much I did not feel the urge to splurge, and I think the amps I have are good dry fodder and are better to own.

They also have a reissue Fender external reverb, for $750.00. I could get it out the door for $700.00 cash, but really the older originals are point to point wiring without a printed circuit board, but the vintage ones sell for $2K-$2.5K which is insane.

For $2K I could buy a Victoria Reverbarato. Which is two Fender effects for the lowest price of a vintage Fender, and know that Victoria kinda recreated the Fender reverb, and the Vibrato that exists on my 1960 Brown Super using point-to-point wiring.

To me I would rather save my ammo and get a Victoria Reverbarato. Anyways I still own the Victoria Regal and that has a cool reverb and vibrato built into the amp.

Understand I would want the outboard reverb for other amps that lack reverb, and also know that the outboard reverb does boost and amplify the input signal so in effect it is a mild overdrive that is tube driven.

So anyways I learned that these two amps I bought just last year appreciated greatly already. I would expect further price inflation, and really they are kinda like “hard assets” that appreciate in value.

Oh-well on the 70th Anniversary Esquire, didn’t feel right in my hands, but it was a nice exploration and exciting to check out if it would be great for me. A bit of fun and excitement flirting with a guitar.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

About 200K workers for the Federal Government are on probation as new hires. These 200K workers are getting fired, meaning they are unlikely to be counted as unemployed because they being fired are not eligible for unemployment benefits.

Remember I mentioned that new applications for unemployment at 400K translates into a recession… If these workers become fired/unemployed we are kinda there.

Now it seems 75K workers will take the buyout to compound things. Do you see a government slowdown yet? What do you think happens to the moral of the rest of the public service workforce?

The markets are showing a Red Screen, while Gold and Oil are up. My spin on the gold and oil prices is inflation expectations.

Meanwhile European markets are out performing U.S. markets, reflecting a slowdown.

Do you feel the slow-motion happening?

It seems Orange Julius used his first-term as a testing ground for his ideas to kinda establish the red-lines and where he would have pushback. Now in those red lines are being crossed and tested again.

8 years ago there was the threat of the U.S. leaving NATO. This is a mucho crazy idea, and now it is looking like Europe has to get prepared to defend itself. Germany for decades has underfunded its NATO commitment and pretty much is a small shadow of what it had in military strength during the Cold War.

So is the new U.S. policy that Russia has permission to annex a Free Europe?

Mucho evil is happening. The world has to wake up.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I looked back in my journal and now see that the Victoria Regal I got in a flat trade for two old vintage lap steels in September 2024 increased in value not by $400.00, but $500.00

So today I love this amp a bit more. Call me a greedy bastard. LOL.

That Glaser double “G” and “B” bender is mighty cool. Sending off one of my guitars to get one installed would set me back $1150.00. Hmmm…

No rush, but the money has to come from somewhere. I think this blonde light in weight swamp ash Tele made with a 1-piece body would be the candidate.

There is a $650.00 option for a single bender that would be convertible to either “B” or “G,” but not two at the same time.

Hmmm.

Cal

 

[Nokton48]

Morning Devil Cal,

You remind me of me. LOL

I just bought from Germany a 15cm Voigtlander Apo-Lanthar, which is a serious Lanthium elemented Cult LF lens. I'm putting the cells into a Plaubel Makiflex Automatic Iris Auto Diaphragm Olde Lensboard. My repair Guy Mac has experience working on my Harem now. Difficult I ask? Nope he says. YAY. The Apo-Lanthar is infamous for element seperating, this one has teeny teeny edge seperation. So priced to move at 225 British Pounds with Linhof shutter, which is a steal deal. Most are near or north of a Grand, a no brainer. The HOLY GRAIL of Plaubel Makiflex lenses. The Harem will be so pleased 🙂

Inverted Sinar Handy 4x5 TMX400 Pushed Handheld by Nokton48, on Flickr

This is like shooting a 4x5 Olde 21mm Leitz Super Angulon but on steroids. TMX400 1/60 F8 Handheld

 

[Calzone]

Devil Dan,

Don’t tell your wife you have a private harem. LOL.

She must know tat you have a camera and lens fetish by now. LOL.

I’m still fantasizing about that 70th Anniversary Esquire. Someone dropped $1150.00 into having that double bender installed, then there’s a $325.00 refin done by MJT. My forensics makes me believe the 4 conductor bridge pickup is a Seymour Duncan that costs $139.00.

Know I could get a used one in great condition for $1.8K to $2K. They only made them for 1 year in 2020, and they were sprayed with nitro cellulose lacquer like in the old days.

They are trying to sell this on Reverb, so I likely could worm off that commission that I believe is 10%.

My thinking is I could change out the neck and pretty much I could buy a replacement neck for the girth and chunk I require. Pays to save the neck, because it pretty much would sell easily because it is a Fender USA neck and is special because of the lacquer OEM factory finish.

Call me a dog, but I have lust and desire.

Update: Reverb fee is 5%. Also if a trad is involved this evades sales tax.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A red screen in the markets, even gold and oil are in the red.

Monday is a holiday, and pretty much in three days more can happen to add chaos to the markets. Doing a Texas Hold ‘Em is mucho risky.

I have some possible trades to secure the double bender. I could get rid of a bass that I bought for no money perhaps 3 decades ago, and now its value is kinda triple what I paid for it. Then there is the National 1210 amp that is original and OEM.

If I knock off the Reverb fee I kinda got a flat trade.

No worries is that I have a transparent red version of the transparent blue version I’m willing to unload, and know that the red version is about 9 pounds which is mucho light weight.

Lust is an awful thing to waste.

Sticking with my “No-Buy” mode.

I can live without this bass, and the National amp I bought as an investment knowing it’s condition held a vast premium.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

It was a no deal, and I’m cool with that. Oh-well.

My mind got a chance to wander and wonder. It was exciting, it was titillating, and most of all it is cool it didn’t happen. Most of all it was educational and also entertaining.

Economically I think I am better off with the assets I own. When I pulled it out of the basement I just had to tune the bass, and it plays well right out of the case. Been in storage for perhaps 4 years. Wow…

Then having an OEM original amp…

The transparent blue finish utilizes the most select ash for showing off the grain. This blue bass weighs 10 1/2 pounds and has a neck stamp date of October 1981. Along with the rosewood neck the heavy weight adds to create a woody sound like a fret less bass. Very cool.

Oh-well.

I kinda learned about this Joe Glaser bender. Mighty cool.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold fell below the $2.9K threshold. Hmmm…

A headline was why Europeans don’t buy American cars. Pretty much they are not small and not as fuel efficient as the preferred smaller cars to choose from.

There also is criticism that American car manufactures promote and build more SUV’s and trucks to pad their bottom line because on these vehicles profit margins are bigger.

Then there is the absent headline where Americans who don’t want to buy pickup trucks or SUV’s, have a limited selection of compact American cars to choose from. Basically because of shortages and limited selection Americans are compelled to buy foreign cars because American manufactures don’t want to support this share of the market.

Know that gas prices are in liters in Europe, and it takes 3.8 liters to make a gallon. The rude thing is that a liter of gas in Europe costs about the same as a gallon of gas here in the U.S.

On long trips the Audi A4 gets more than 27 MPG, granted I have to buy premium because of the turbo. On a 16 gallon tank I can exceed 400 miles.

Also the quality of American cars is not so great. IMHO I think foreign cars are more durable and reliable over the long term. For me American cars are junk.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

This morning I got a chance to plug in. I learned that my playing got a lot better and is smoother. The exercises I have been doing to internalize chord scales is paying off, but I need to start learning songs, and reading music to really advance.

Its all about feeling and not thinking…

I played through the 1960 Fender brown Super, and went through the rotation of guitars on hand. Pretty much subtle differences between guitars, but overall they all sounded great through this amp without having to tweak knobs on the amp. This is impressive.

Then I plugged into the Vintage 47 VA-20 amp. More of the same, but perhaps a bit more raw with some apparent “hair.”

The Victoria Regal required some dialing in, and I think the bass was a bit too loose to my liking. I think I need to retune the output section. I think I have a 6V6 along with a 6L6. I think the 6V6 is making the bass a bit “farty.”

So I have to tweak the Victoria because I have evolved and advanced.

Cal