NYC Journal

[Calzone]

Options are getting crazy as “Stock Market Crash Insurance” is being bought.

Big money is buying a hedge in anticipation of a stock market drop is being predicted.

Place your bet. Remember that the Eagles won the Super Bowl, and that when Philly has a championship team the superstition and history is that the markets tank.

Do you follow the big money? Do you believe history? Do you believe in superstition?

Friday a trap-door might open. “Look out below…”

I wonder when the lack of rule of law kicks in. The markets don’t like uncertainty and madness is going on. Remember without rule of law you have no government, nor an economy, because there is no trust.

Lack of confidence replaces rule of law. Bets are being made by big money predicting a crash.

Do you think a recession is underway? Friday could be the tell all.

Cal

 

[Austintatious]

Separately Ray Dalio is suggesting a debt death spiral for the U.S. within the next 3 years. Pretty much debt, interest on debt, and being able to roll over debt into new debt becomes unsustainable. Pretty much we have been on this path for a long time, and the only response was more and more deficit spending.

Pretty much you can’t live by borrowing money indefinitely.

The only way out would be some very steep cuts along with an economic miracle, but that ain’t happening.

The thing about "these days" is that there is almost too much information out there and it's mostly biased in one way or another. As you point out above, a nation cannot go on borrowing money in order to operate. It has been pointed out that the government is the largest borrower in the world. When the FED raises the interest rates to slow inflation down, it causes the debt to increase. What is going on at this time has been talked about by many Presidents before Orangeman but none have really done much about cutting spending until now. Sharing a couple of articles that I found somewhat helpful.

Cutting Government Waste – But (D)ifferent | Armstrong Economics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=5hpd61WfMvk

www.armstrongeconomics.com

Buckle up, it's going to get bumpy !

Brace for Economic Turbulence - Daily Reckoning

True change is finally here, and in the short-term, that means pain.

dailyreckoning.com

 

[Calzone]

Austin,

I would argue that Bill Clinton was overlooked by the Armstrong Economic view.

Fact is even though a Democrat that he gutted Welfare and placed term-limits on this assistance. Also by the end of his second term our government actually held a surplus. There was a balanced budget.

After the year 2000, starting with George W. Bush deficit spending started, the balanced budget and the surplus became history.

So deficit spending happened under George W. Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden and again Trump.

Someone drank the cool-aid, and bias is present that is pro-orange.

BTW I’m not a fan of Clinton as a President or as a man.

At this point in history the U.S. debt is 34% of the worlds government debt. 36.2% of our GDP is government spending (both Federal and State), and 23% of our GDP is Federal spending.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

On the second article I stopped reading it when it mentioned “for the past 5 decades the U.S. has been on an unsustainable path.”

Again, the Federal Surplus that was squandered was not counted. I am not discounting 25 years since the year 2000 that are clearly deficit spending, but why do they omit a surplus and a period of a balanced budget?

Bias again, and an erasure of history.

Kool-aid again…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Again, a history lesson.

In the early 90’s Canada lost it’s triple A bond rating. Pretty much this was during a liberal government, and they endured a decade of serious austerity to regain their triple A bond rating.

They went methodically cutting government spending line-by-line.

So tell me what happens when buying U.S. debt is deemed risky, and our bonds get degraded. Do you think we could do what the Canadians did?

I don’t think so, our population is too large, too fragmented, and too divided.

The reason I take notice, is Ray Dalio, Larry Summers, and others are seeing the debt spiral crisis happening sooner rather than later. Could be bad timing, but it looks like it might happen under Trump’s second term. This is the point I am making, or trying to make.

Dalio may be wrong with his timing, and I have disagreed with his logic and thinking before. Kinda funny though as far as respect for him as a man I put him as not being so great because of things he has done that are shameful.

At this point, the faith and trust of the U.S. government is being destroyed. This does not promote buying U.S. bonds. Clearly an unintended consequence. With the clear breakdown in rule of law why trust buying U.S. Bonds?

Again without rule of law you really can’t have a government or an economy. Trust and faith come though rule of law, clearly there are many breakdowns.

Now rule of law has been replaced by rule of the jungle. The U.S. has become a bully.

Trump has gone bankrupt several times. Basically he has a history of defaulting. How do you make a casino a failed business?

Ill-will does not sell U.S. debt. A lot of harm is being done that can’t be undone. This is both opinion and fact.

At a certain tipping point, investors will realize or question will the U.S. go into default and not honor its debt obligations. The only way to garner buyers is to raise rates to attract buyers to dismiss the risk real or percieved.

Did you see the head of Social Security reporting and giving a heads up that payments might get delayed over the next 30-90 days? The word “collapse” was used…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Granted that this is taken out of context, and can’t be confirmed because it was said to be in private conversation with Wiliam F. Buckley, but it is often attributed to Henry Kissinger.

“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The markets today are mildly in the red, gold is up, and oil is lower suggesting less demand and a slowdown.

Still early. Yesterday’s losses were steep. Could be some bounce today, but I suspect more negative “bias” and eventually the downtrend and sell off to continue. 42,000 on the DOW marks a triple bottom, and this threshold if violated points to a bear market, and a likely painful one because of debt loads.

Another shift will happen as the U.S. Dollar weakens as U.S. assets become less popular.

Friday could be a bad day for the markets if employment numbers look bad. Gold is displaying some violent swings, so in turn expect lots of volatility, but the price of oil ratcheting lower surely points to lower demand and slower growth.

This will be an interesting week. Tariffs become real and not just banter. In other words history begins and a path is being chosen.

Likely outcome is stagflation: high unemployment combined with inflation.

Be prepared for the start of a new Federal Sales Tax disguised as “Tariffs.” Also trade wars will begin, and the world economy is at risk. Say goodbye to the world you once knew…

“Moo,” said the Pig.

Cal

 

[Phil_F_NM]

Latest estimates are that over 6000 Veterans have been fired from Federal jobs so far. Veterans comprise approximately 30% of the Federal workforce, so for the party that wants to support the troops and Veterans, what kind of a signal is this?
A non-Veteran colleague of mine was just fired by the regime, from the Philadelphia VAMC Community Living Center. This is a long term rehabilitation facility also with 8 hospice beds. The firing of my colleague is one of those cases where mental health, movement, community engagement and overall holistic non-medical based health is not a priority and will suffer. Veterans will experience lower morale and die sooner.
Phil

 

[Nokton48]

Morning Devil Cal,

Moo. I was working up on working out my bubble. Collecting economically is a good diversion.

All Cleaned Up New Glass Table Overhead 8x10 Norma by Nokton48, on Flickr

Went to MPEX and picked up Super White and Studio Black Seamless Paper 1/2 wide size, then cut it down with my Chop Saw in the garage. The paper burned and smoked quite a bit but got a nice clean cut, here the Super White is installed. Boxed up all the clutter and shelved it. On the right is my 8x10 Overhead Set 8x10 Sinar Norma, I've been shooting tabletop with this, and the 165mm and 121mm Super Angulons. A Friend wants to sell me his 210mm Super Angulon, I will get it eventually, that will complete my set. I'm enjoying shooting a lot of test film with my Minolta SRT's, testing the new lighting. A lot of fun. And I need a better way to hang the custom cut paper rolls, I have ideas on how to do it with stuff from Lowes.

 

[Calzone]

Hurting Vets is just plain wrong. Pure evil…

I got my PSA results and it came in at 1.12. I still have Cancer that now needs cleanup via radiation treatment (4-6 weeks, 5 days a week) plus hormone therapy (chemical castration).

Waiting to hear from my urologist.

Went to the Philly Flower Show and did an overnight stay. We stayed at a historic hotel by the Customs House in the Old City section. Perhaps we did 6-7 miles of walking, and it fatigued us, as we have been inactive. Point is we lost a lot and need to get back being more active.

150 miles to Philly from Peekskill is about a 3 hour drive. We timed it right to avoid congestion and traffic.

Perhaps it was nearly 25 years ago when we last attended the Philly Flower Show. This year it had a big section of home goods venders, and even home improvement like gutters and windows. Big displays, but a lot less smaller flower venders. In a way a bit disappointing.

“Maggie” and I, ex Madhattanites, found ourselves a bit overwhelmed by the noise and crowds at the Terminal Market and the Convention Center, but overall the rest of Philly was a lot less busy. We saw a lot of redevelopment near the riverfront and on Arch Street. Much has changed.

Last time we were in Philly was during the Pandemic…

Happy to be at home. Maggie now identifies as a farm girl.

I guess we are still public figures because Maggie was recognized by someone who attended the Woodstock Book Festival at the Flower Show.

***************

My urologist prepared us well, the PSA above 0.1 we knew is a possibility. No surprise here. I have an aggressive Cancer.

Oh-well.

Last minute update: It seems my PSA post-surgery is significant.

*********************

So I am confused. Do we have tariffs or not. Is this another head fake? Households, businesses, and the markets don’t like uncertainty. So Tariffs that started Tuesday, yesterday, might again get unwound. This happened last month, so here we are again.

The markets turned green in response to the suggestion that tariffs might get moderated.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Barron’s and others suggest that tariffs will only result in “mild stagflation.”

Perhaps so, but how long could that mild stagflation last?

With all the uncertainty, all the damage already done, the breakdown of rule of law and trust there really is no real going back in time to undo things.

We sit in quick sand…

Cal

 

[Retro-Grouch]

Barron’s and others suggest that tariffs will only result in “mild stagflation.”

Perhaps so, but how long could that mild stagflation last?

With all the uncertainty, all the damage already done, the breakdown of rule of law and trust there really is no real going back in time to undo things.

We sit in quick sand…

Cal

No way out but through... We are witnessing the end of American society as we (and previous generations) knew it. The future is frightening, but perhaps we need to get through this madness to create something better. In spite of everything, I have hope for the distant future. Right now...

"The old order changeth, yielding place to new,
And God fulfils Himself in many ways,
Lest one good custom should corrupt the world."
-- Tennyson

 

[Calzone]

R-G,

Certainly the world we knew is gone. Moving forward all we can do is try and cope and adapt. A certain amount of acceptance is required.

I wrote about the number 13. Basically 13 made the superstition of being bad luck because it is a number associated with change and transition. Most people do not like change and have difficulties with transitions.

Unfortunately it seems like not everyone is wired for or prepared for the creative destruction ahead. I’m pretty sure I will be fine, but I worry for others. I’m still human.

They say everyone looses in a Trade War. In the end consumers pay more for goods, and some partial costs is suffered by businesses. In the end Tariffs are a new Federal Sales Tax, or it can be looked upon as a consumption tax.

So who gains? The Federal Government raises revenue and receives the funds raised by the tariffs. Businesses and consumers pay the cost. Pretty much welcome a new tax at a Federal level.

So do you think this money raised will be squandered? Do you think it will be used to pay down the deficit? If tax cuts get approved, who gets the benefit, and who suffers a loss.

The way I see it, this is a redistribution of wealth. There was a concept of imposing a wealth tax, but in a ways this is the inverse.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

One month delay in Auto tariffs…

Ha-ha… is this a joke? What happens in a month?

More delays.???

Are tariffs real if they get delayed?

Kinda like my term “virtual work” which is talking endlessly about work that has to get done, instead of doing a task.

These are “virtual tariffs.” We talk about tariffs, set them in play for a day, and then discount them into just talk and banter.

So is there a deeper meaning to this chaos and confusion? Some form of purpose, or perhaps tactic? There certainly is a pattern.

Is this distraction to divert attention and dilute the impact when tariffs actually are imposed?

Then there is the time delay of when the price increases actually get passed onto the consumer.

The Economic Boycott had mixed results. Amazon had increased sales. Perhaps the only real measurable win was against Target, and maybe Costco who supported DEI and had increased sales.

Still time to load up on nut butters and nuts.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The markets responded to the delay in auto tariffs with nearly a rebound from Tuesday’s savage drop on the DOW.

Boy, is this a bubble? I judge this as an overcompensation/overreaction to a sliver of the total tariffs.

La-la-la…

Some thought of how confusion can be a tactic to divide and conquer the masses. “Maggie” suggested that fatigue sets in and pretty much the masses become desensitized to the confusion to the extent that the news gets diluted and a new normal slides in hidden in plain sight.

Americans have a very short attention span. After Hurricane Sandy, it took only 5 years for beach and waterfront properties in New York to recover, as if no monumental or historical disaster ever occurred.

So this short attention span is a form of social control. Kinda like how a high background level of noise can impair hearing wel or clearly.

I did a Devil Dan and secured a complete set of black Sperzel tuners at a low price. Pretty much a no-brainer price. They were delivered today, and they are in like new condition. Happy-happy…

I read that exercise can elevate PSA levels. Hmmm. Perhaps my strength training is effecting the PSA reading to an extent.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

CANCER UPDATE:

My urologist/surgeon/Chief called, and wants me to schedule another Pet Scan pronto. Read fast-tracked…

Next step: is the “chemical castration.” This will “zero” my PSA and stop Cancer growth.

From there will likely come the attack with radiation to kill the remaining Cancer.

Eyes wide open, my worries is evidently my aggressive Cancer has metastasized, and the likely area seems to be likely other lymph nodes. So now we are talking possibly a full blown lymphoma, something that I already have a pre-disposition for, and this might lead to Chemo which is a new realm of Cancer.

The big jump here is the possibility that my Cancer is systematic…

So moving forward is all I can do, and hope for the best. A kinda combat attitude where I have to just be brave an see what fate delivers. “Maggie” is kinda overwhelmed and tender. Separately she too has some health issues that may or may not be serious, but at this point lays uncertainty.

Friday she gets 3 Cat-Scans. Plaque, brain tumor, and a circulation problems have to be sorted out. It is not a thyroid condition. That got ruled out by the blood test this past Monday.

Cal

 

[pyeh]

Cal, I'm sorry to hear that your surgery wasn't a one hundred percent cure. I wish you all the best with the next course of therapies.

 

[Calzone]

Pete,

The prostatectomy, never was a cure. It was only the first step, and eyes wide open this aggressive Cancer was always known to require eventually, sooner or later, a secondary treatment that I call the clean-up: radiation therapy; and hormone treatment.

Now the big question is how far did it spread. Next question is the treatment options.

In other words the expected safe expectation did not happen, and pretty much this Cancer is not the typical, it is an aggressive form…

Still not a death sentence, but a door has opened to where the surprise could be bone Cancer, bladder Cancer, or other lymph nodes. The surprise might be a big lymphoma.

Know that some Cancer was removed from the neck of my bladder…

Then there is the possibility of needing Chemo… but of course now we are talking a systematic treatment for Cancer that is not so targeted.

Again not sure where this is all going. My life is full of uncertainty, but I have been in situations like this before. I should survive, not the first time I have had to face my possible end.

Just another life and death crisis. Also I have this feeling about my fate. I would be mighty surprised if my death or end is Cancer. Don’t think it is my destiny…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A headline suggests 76,000 layoffs at the VA, many of them Vetrans.

Now I call this a ShXX-Show.

Remember that 400K number that I mentioned that denotes a recession.

Another headline downplays stagflation as being mild unless the consumer “panics.” Is this a joke or a game?

Another headline was a Canadian Goose against the aggression from a Bald Eagle in a photographed battle that was on open frozen ice. The confrontation lasted a reported 20 minutes, and the Canadian Goose stood its ground and finally the Bald Eagle retreated.

Cal

 

[robert blu]

Cal, not a nice situation but you are a warrior and your attitude will help you. Wish all the best, for you and Maggie. Keep us updated.