Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Barron’s and others suggest that tariffs will only result in “mild stagflation.”
Perhaps so, but how long could that mild stagflation last?
With all the uncertainty, all the damage already done, the breakdown of rule of law and trust there really is no real going back in time to undo things.
We sit in quick sand…
Cal
Perhaps so, but how long could that mild stagflation last?
With all the uncertainty, all the damage already done, the breakdown of rule of law and trust there really is no real going back in time to undo things.
We sit in quick sand…
Cal
Retro-Grouch
Veteran
No way out but through... We are witnessing the end of American society as we (and previous generations) knew it. The future is frightening, but perhaps we need to get through this madness to create something better. In spite of everything, I have hope for the distant future. Right now...
"The old order changeth, yielding place to new,
And God fulfils Himself in many ways,
Lest one good custom should corrupt the world."
-- Tennyson
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
R-G,
Certainly the world we knew is gone. Moving forward all we can do is try and cope and adapt. A certain amount of acceptance is required.
I wrote about the number 13. Basically 13 made the superstition of being bad luck because it is a number associated with change and transition. Most people do not like change and have difficulties with transitions.
Unfortunately it seems like not everyone is wired for or prepared for the creative destruction ahead. I’m pretty sure I will be fine, but I worry for others. I’m still human.
They say everyone looses in a Trade War. In the end consumers pay more for goods, and some partial costs is suffered by businesses. In the end Tariffs are a new Federal Sales Tax, or it can be looked upon as a consumption tax.
So who gains? The Federal Government raises revenue and receives the funds raised by the tariffs. Businesses and consumers pay the cost. Pretty much welcome a new tax at a Federal level.
So do you think this money raised will be squandered? Do you think it will be used to pay down the deficit? If tax cuts get approved, who gets the benefit, and who suffers a loss.
The way I see it, this is a redistribution of wealth. There was a concept of imposing a wealth tax, but in a ways this is the inverse.
Cal
Certainly the world we knew is gone. Moving forward all we can do is try and cope and adapt. A certain amount of acceptance is required.
I wrote about the number 13. Basically 13 made the superstition of being bad luck because it is a number associated with change and transition. Most people do not like change and have difficulties with transitions.
Unfortunately it seems like not everyone is wired for or prepared for the creative destruction ahead. I’m pretty sure I will be fine, but I worry for others. I’m still human.
They say everyone looses in a Trade War. In the end consumers pay more for goods, and some partial costs is suffered by businesses. In the end Tariffs are a new Federal Sales Tax, or it can be looked upon as a consumption tax.
So who gains? The Federal Government raises revenue and receives the funds raised by the tariffs. Businesses and consumers pay the cost. Pretty much welcome a new tax at a Federal level.
So do you think this money raised will be squandered? Do you think it will be used to pay down the deficit? If tax cuts get approved, who gets the benefit, and who suffers a loss.
The way I see it, this is a redistribution of wealth. There was a concept of imposing a wealth tax, but in a ways this is the inverse.
Cal
Last edited:
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
One month delay in Auto tariffs…
Ha-ha… is this a joke? What happens in a month?
More delays.???
Are tariffs real if they get delayed?
Kinda like my term “virtual work” which is talking endlessly about work that has to get done, instead of doing a task.
These are “virtual tariffs.” We talk about tariffs, set them in play for a day, and then discount them into just talk and banter.
So is there a deeper meaning to this chaos and confusion? Some form of purpose, or perhaps tactic? There certainly is a pattern.
Is this distraction to divert attention and dilute the impact when tariffs actually are imposed?
Then there is the time delay of when the price increases actually get passed onto the consumer.
The Economic Boycott had mixed results. Amazon had increased sales. Perhaps the only real measurable win was against Target, and maybe Costco who supported DEI and had increased sales.
Still time to load up on nut butters and nuts.
Cal
Ha-ha… is this a joke? What happens in a month?
More delays.???
Are tariffs real if they get delayed?
Kinda like my term “virtual work” which is talking endlessly about work that has to get done, instead of doing a task.
These are “virtual tariffs.” We talk about tariffs, set them in play for a day, and then discount them into just talk and banter.
So is there a deeper meaning to this chaos and confusion? Some form of purpose, or perhaps tactic? There certainly is a pattern.
Is this distraction to divert attention and dilute the impact when tariffs actually are imposed?
Then there is the time delay of when the price increases actually get passed onto the consumer.
The Economic Boycott had mixed results. Amazon had increased sales. Perhaps the only real measurable win was against Target, and maybe Costco who supported DEI and had increased sales.
Still time to load up on nut butters and nuts.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The markets responded to the delay in auto tariffs with nearly a rebound from Tuesday’s savage drop on the DOW.
Boy, is this a bubble? I judge this as an overcompensation/overreaction to a sliver of the total tariffs.
La-la-la…
Some thought of how confusion can be a tactic to divide and conquer the masses. “Maggie” suggested that fatigue sets in and pretty much the masses become desensitized to the confusion to the extent that the news gets diluted and a new normal slides in hidden in plain sight.
Americans have a very short attention span. After Hurricane Sandy, it took only 5 years for beach and waterfront properties in New York to recover, as if no monumental or historical disaster ever occurred.
So this short attention span is a form of social control. Kinda like how a high background level of noise can impair hearing wel or clearly.
I did a Devil Dan and secured a complete set of black Sperzel tuners at a low price. Pretty much a no-brainer price. They were delivered today, and they are in like new condition. Happy-happy…
I read that exercise can elevate PSA levels. Hmmm. Perhaps my strength training is effecting the PSA reading to an extent.
Cal
Boy, is this a bubble? I judge this as an overcompensation/overreaction to a sliver of the total tariffs.
La-la-la…
Some thought of how confusion can be a tactic to divide and conquer the masses. “Maggie” suggested that fatigue sets in and pretty much the masses become desensitized to the confusion to the extent that the news gets diluted and a new normal slides in hidden in plain sight.
Americans have a very short attention span. After Hurricane Sandy, it took only 5 years for beach and waterfront properties in New York to recover, as if no monumental or historical disaster ever occurred.
So this short attention span is a form of social control. Kinda like how a high background level of noise can impair hearing wel or clearly.
I did a Devil Dan and secured a complete set of black Sperzel tuners at a low price. Pretty much a no-brainer price. They were delivered today, and they are in like new condition. Happy-happy…
I read that exercise can elevate PSA levels. Hmmm. Perhaps my strength training is effecting the PSA reading to an extent.
Cal
Last edited:
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
CANCER UPDATE:
My urologist/surgeon/Chief called, and wants me to schedule another Pet Scan pronto. Read fast-tracked…
Next step: is the “chemical castration.” This will “zero” my PSA and stop Cancer growth.
From there will likely come the attack with radiation to kill the remaining Cancer.
Eyes wide open, my worries is evidently my aggressive Cancer has metastasized, and the likely area seems to be likely other lymph nodes. So now we are talking possibly a full blown lymphoma, something that I already have a pre-disposition for, and this might lead to Chemo which is a new realm of Cancer.
The big jump here is the possibility that my Cancer is systematic…
So moving forward is all I can do, and hope for the best. A kinda combat attitude where I have to just be brave an see what fate delivers. “Maggie” is kinda overwhelmed and tender. Separately she too has some health issues that may or may not be serious, but at this point lays uncertainty.
Friday she gets 3 Cat-Scans. Plaque, brain tumor, and a circulation problems have to be sorted out. It is not a thyroid condition. That got ruled out by the blood test this past Monday.
Cal
My urologist/surgeon/Chief called, and wants me to schedule another Pet Scan pronto. Read fast-tracked…
Next step: is the “chemical castration.” This will “zero” my PSA and stop Cancer growth.
From there will likely come the attack with radiation to kill the remaining Cancer.
Eyes wide open, my worries is evidently my aggressive Cancer has metastasized, and the likely area seems to be likely other lymph nodes. So now we are talking possibly a full blown lymphoma, something that I already have a pre-disposition for, and this might lead to Chemo which is a new realm of Cancer.
The big jump here is the possibility that my Cancer is systematic…
So moving forward is all I can do, and hope for the best. A kinda combat attitude where I have to just be brave an see what fate delivers. “Maggie” is kinda overwhelmed and tender. Separately she too has some health issues that may or may not be serious, but at this point lays uncertainty.
Friday she gets 3 Cat-Scans. Plaque, brain tumor, and a circulation problems have to be sorted out. It is not a thyroid condition. That got ruled out by the blood test this past Monday.
Cal
pyeh
Member of good standing
Cal, I'm sorry to hear that your surgery wasn't a one hundred percent cure. I wish you all the best with the next course of therapies.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Pete,
The prostatectomy, never was a cure. It was only the first step, and eyes wide open this aggressive Cancer was always known to require eventually, sooner or later, a secondary treatment that I call the clean-up: radiation therapy; and hormone treatment.
Now the big question is how far did it spread. Next question is the treatment options.
In other words the expected safe expectation did not happen, and pretty much this Cancer is not the typical, it is an aggressive form…
Still not a death sentence, but a door has opened to where the surprise could be bone Cancer, bladder Cancer, or other lymph nodes. The surprise might be a big lymphoma.
Know that some Cancer was removed from the neck of my bladder…
Then there is the possibility of needing Chemo… but of course now we are talking a systematic treatment for Cancer that is not so targeted.
Again not sure where this is all going. My life is full of uncertainty, but I have been in situations like this before. I should survive, not the first time I have had to face my possible end.
Just another life and death crisis. Also I have this feeling about my fate. I would be mighty surprised if my death or end is Cancer. Don’t think it is my destiny…
Cal
The prostatectomy, never was a cure. It was only the first step, and eyes wide open this aggressive Cancer was always known to require eventually, sooner or later, a secondary treatment that I call the clean-up: radiation therapy; and hormone treatment.
Now the big question is how far did it spread. Next question is the treatment options.
In other words the expected safe expectation did not happen, and pretty much this Cancer is not the typical, it is an aggressive form…
Still not a death sentence, but a door has opened to where the surprise could be bone Cancer, bladder Cancer, or other lymph nodes. The surprise might be a big lymphoma.
Know that some Cancer was removed from the neck of my bladder…
Then there is the possibility of needing Chemo… but of course now we are talking a systematic treatment for Cancer that is not so targeted.
Again not sure where this is all going. My life is full of uncertainty, but I have been in situations like this before. I should survive, not the first time I have had to face my possible end.
Just another life and death crisis. Also I have this feeling about my fate. I would be mighty surprised if my death or end is Cancer. Don’t think it is my destiny…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A headline suggests 76,000 layoffs at the VA, many of them Vetrans.
Now I call this a ShXX-Show.
Remember that 400K number that I mentioned that denotes a recession.
Another headline downplays stagflation as being mild unless the consumer “panics.” Is this a joke or a game?
Another headline was a Canadian Goose against the aggression from a Bald Eagle in a photographed battle that was on open frozen ice. The confrontation lasted a reported 20 minutes, and the Canadian Goose stood its ground and finally the Bald Eagle retreated.
Cal
Now I call this a ShXX-Show.
Remember that 400K number that I mentioned that denotes a recession.
Another headline downplays stagflation as being mild unless the consumer “panics.” Is this a joke or a game?
Another headline was a Canadian Goose against the aggression from a Bald Eagle in a photographed battle that was on open frozen ice. The confrontation lasted a reported 20 minutes, and the Canadian Goose stood its ground and finally the Bald Eagle retreated.
Cal
robert blu
quiet photographer
Cal, not a nice situation but you are a warrior and your attitude will help you. Wish all the best, for you and Maggie. Keep us updated.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Looks like agricultural products (food) are “Virtual Tariffs” at this point.
Don’t forget that Mexico supplies 40% of our fruit vegetables and nuts.
Then there is the suggestion that the 3 big automakers might try to stockpile finished autos and trucks. Kinda risky when 8 out of 12 FED districts report flat or modest declines in economic activity.
Also stagflation will not get exacerbated by a wage price spiral like they did starting in 1973-1982. Back then Unions were strong, so wage demands got met, but this time inflation and lack of worker’s rights or power translates into a very different kind of stagflation of perhaps working harder and having less purchasing power.
Oddly the markets recovered a lot of the losses from earlier in the week. As if the proposed tariffs are all “virtual.” Feels like a bubble and wishful thinking to me. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so. Still Friday will be a reveal.
Certainly, uncertainty can’t be good for business, supporting a household, or for an economy. The VIX or Volatility Index, does not seem to reflect really the whipsawing that is going on. The dampening effect I mentioned earlier of all this background noise and flip-flopping seems to be masking the truth.
Am I the only person that see’s this?
Things are really that crazy.
It is like the story, “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” and during the parade the viewers are with the Emperor in their beliefs seeing imaginary clothes.
Remember the definition of insanity, “Repeating history and expecting a different outcome.”
There is a parade of lunacy going on.
Realize that there is a delay as the effects of these tariffs and even “virtual tariffs” have on the economy. That’s why I say things happen in slow motion. The adjustments are so small that they don’t get noticed until suddenly the forest is right next to the castle as if in the play MacBeth.
Uncertainty, certainly destabilizes a future and implies risk. Hard to measure, so it goes un-noticed. Right now it is kinda disregarded. Oh-well.
Cal
Don’t forget that Mexico supplies 40% of our fruit vegetables and nuts.
Then there is the suggestion that the 3 big automakers might try to stockpile finished autos and trucks. Kinda risky when 8 out of 12 FED districts report flat or modest declines in economic activity.
Also stagflation will not get exacerbated by a wage price spiral like they did starting in 1973-1982. Back then Unions were strong, so wage demands got met, but this time inflation and lack of worker’s rights or power translates into a very different kind of stagflation of perhaps working harder and having less purchasing power.
Oddly the markets recovered a lot of the losses from earlier in the week. As if the proposed tariffs are all “virtual.” Feels like a bubble and wishful thinking to me. I could be wrong, but I don’t think so. Still Friday will be a reveal.
Certainly, uncertainty can’t be good for business, supporting a household, or for an economy. The VIX or Volatility Index, does not seem to reflect really the whipsawing that is going on. The dampening effect I mentioned earlier of all this background noise and flip-flopping seems to be masking the truth.
Am I the only person that see’s this?
Things are really that crazy.
It is like the story, “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” and during the parade the viewers are with the Emperor in their beliefs seeing imaginary clothes.
Remember the definition of insanity, “Repeating history and expecting a different outcome.”
There is a parade of lunacy going on.
Realize that there is a delay as the effects of these tariffs and even “virtual tariffs” have on the economy. That’s why I say things happen in slow motion. The adjustments are so small that they don’t get noticed until suddenly the forest is right next to the castle as if in the play MacBeth.
Uncertainty, certainly destabilizes a future and implies risk. Hard to measure, so it goes un-noticed. Right now it is kinda disregarded. Oh-well.
Cal
Last edited:
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Woodblock printmaking in 9x12 inch format is fantastic.
Phil
Phil
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Phil,
Keep at it…
Are you doing B&W?
Cal
Keep at it…
Are you doing B&W?
Cal
Prest_400
Multiformat
Hope for a good treatment Cal. Fight!
What can one say about the American administration. It's very baffling and entretaining in a bad way to see it from here Europe.
Likewise it is sad that we are again in a time of wars and conflicts.
The American product that I mostly find irreplaceable nowadays is Kodak film and materials, specifically color. I have been thinking on replenishing my stash of 120 color film. Interestingly a local retailer has a great sale and it's been Ilford HP5 so far at a great "2023 price" of 7 bucks a roll. My color shooting goes by periods and mostly warmer sunnier seasons, not really needing that much so even a few pro packs could last the whole administration with the slower pace of shooting home. I somehow am growing some Medium format collection (need to pick a Yashica TLR from the post) and I have been doing a lot in my community darkroom.
This last Paragraph is a bit petty compared to the rest of events, but well, RFF related.
In an alternate reality I had this plan to travel to NYC the next week.
What can one say about the American administration. It's very baffling and entretaining in a bad way to see it from here Europe.
Phil, extending a vow of solidarity and appreciation to the Veterans and what they have done. I welcome the window of experiences that you have shared.
Likewise it is sad that we are again in a time of wars and conflicts.
The American product that I mostly find irreplaceable nowadays is Kodak film and materials, specifically color. I have been thinking on replenishing my stash of 120 color film. Interestingly a local retailer has a great sale and it's been Ilford HP5 so far at a great "2023 price" of 7 bucks a roll. My color shooting goes by periods and mostly warmer sunnier seasons, not really needing that much so even a few pro packs could last the whole administration with the slower pace of shooting home. I somehow am growing some Medium format collection (need to pick a Yashica TLR from the post) and I have been doing a lot in my community darkroom.
This last Paragraph is a bit petty compared to the rest of events, but well, RFF related.
In an alternate reality I had this plan to travel to NYC the next week.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
After yesterday’s IMHO overdone bounce a red screen today.
42,000 on the DOW could open the trap-door I spoke of…
Friday the jobs report, I suspect a slowdown…
Let’s see…
It was good to get back into my guitars. With all the uncertainty there is something I have control over.
Also really-really appreciate my home.
Both NYC and Philly are much changed, and “Maggie” and I are no longer urbanites, we are country folk.
Cal
42,000 on the DOW could open the trap-door I spoke of…
Friday the jobs report, I suspect a slowdown…
Let’s see…
It was good to get back into my guitars. With all the uncertainty there is something I have control over.
Also really-really appreciate my home.
Both NYC and Philly are much changed, and “Maggie” and I are no longer urbanites, we are country folk.
Cal
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Just doing monoprints in various colors.
Phil
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Phil,
Start saving prints thinking of you legacy. Also document and record editions numbers and how many artist proofs.
I learned from a gallery workshop this documentation and having records has a lot of value. May not seem important now, but mucho important later. Very important to document the prints you gift and sell. Build up that database…
Of course just a suggestion…
Cal
Start saving prints thinking of you legacy. Also document and record editions numbers and how many artist proofs.
I learned from a gallery workshop this documentation and having records has a lot of value. May not seem important now, but mucho important later. Very important to document the prints you gift and sell. Build up that database…
Of course just a suggestion…
Cal
Nokton48
Veteran
Devil Cal/All,
I happen to believe that the only reason Trump is doing these stoopid tarrifs, is that he rakes in "Millions and Millions", when the Vendors line up to pay him down at Miralago, to RELEASE them from the tarrifs.
I happen to believe that the only reason Trump is doing these stoopid tarrifs, is that he rakes in "Millions and Millions", when the Vendors line up to pay him down at Miralago, to RELEASE them from the tarrifs.
Last edited:
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Devil Dan,
Donald Trump Jr. posted on his Instagram, “Buy The Dip.”
What if all these “Virtual Tariffs” that stir off sell-offs are nothing more than insider-trading pump and dumps to create buying opportunities..
So pretty easy for exploitation and creation of market volatility and manipulation to basically swing the markets and make profits. This would explain why the VIX (Volatility Index) does not track the uncertainty being created.
Do you remember when Donald Jr bragged about colluding with the enemy openly and publically (Russia). In my book treason… I remember Steven Co-BEAR in his opening monologue apologizing to Eric Trump for suggesting he was the dumb member of the family.
Apple did get a consession/exemption back in Trump 1.0
As I predicted the big three U.S. automakers are in a jam.
New unemployment claims came in lower than anticipated at 221K new applications for February, but this number does not include the Federal firings according to the report I read.
Cal
Donald Trump Jr. posted on his Instagram, “Buy The Dip.”
What if all these “Virtual Tariffs” that stir off sell-offs are nothing more than insider-trading pump and dumps to create buying opportunities..
So pretty easy for exploitation and creation of market volatility and manipulation to basically swing the markets and make profits. This would explain why the VIX (Volatility Index) does not track the uncertainty being created.
Do you remember when Donald Jr bragged about colluding with the enemy openly and publically (Russia). In my book treason… I remember Steven Co-BEAR in his opening monologue apologizing to Eric Trump for suggesting he was the dumb member of the family.
Apple did get a consession/exemption back in Trump 1.0
As I predicted the big three U.S. automakers are in a jam.
New unemployment claims came in lower than anticipated at 221K new applications for February, but this number does not include the Federal firings according to the report I read.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Fortune reported that in a survey that about half of employees are worried about loosing their jobs.
Certainty and uncertainty definitely effects consumer sentiment and the economy. Not good…
Another headline suggests that stagflation will only be “moderate” unless the consumer panics. Pretty much it is looking that way. The panic on Wall Street does not seem present. Earlier losses are being trimmed. La-la-la and La-la-la…
Is there insider pumping and dumping happening. Could be the explanation for the “Virtual Tariffs” and how the news and economic impact gets discounted by the markets.
I can see how easy it could be to trade S&P Mini contracts and pretty much day trade for big money. Hmmm…
Cal
Certainty and uncertainty definitely effects consumer sentiment and the economy. Not good…
Another headline suggests that stagflation will only be “moderate” unless the consumer panics. Pretty much it is looking that way. The panic on Wall Street does not seem present. Earlier losses are being trimmed. La-la-la and La-la-la…
Is there insider pumping and dumping happening. Could be the explanation for the “Virtual Tariffs” and how the news and economic impact gets discounted by the markets.
I can see how easy it could be to trade S&P Mini contracts and pretty much day trade for big money. Hmmm…
Cal