NYC Journal

FED speak says expect inflation and an economic slowdown in the future.

Lowering rates will promote inflation, but will help those suffering from the economic slowdown.

Raising rates will help tame inflation, but increases the economic suffering.

So either way a lose-lose situation. Perhaps the only real option is stand pat and see what happens. Either way is a struggle.

Gold making broad jumps in price and making remarkable higher highs suggest some are betting on inflation and are placing their bet.

Then there are those that are betting on lower interest rates (cuts) which is stimulas that will amp up the markets.

So both bets are being placed, but one has to be wrong. Pretty much the only sure bet is uncertainty.

Then high gold prices I think will be an insult to Team Orange, but any intervention like a tariff on gold imports will be very problematic for the Orange House.

Not only is our economy being debased, our currency is also being debased. Remember that gold is a store of wealth. With inflation cash eventually is worth-less (two words, not one). As U.S. assets like equities go down, there will be less demand for U.S. dollars.

Higher interest rates that will help curb inflation, would also place a demand on dollars, if foreign governments and banks want to buy our bonds, but what if they don’t buy our bonds? Could this lead to a savage crash?

Right now they say the stock markets are highly valued. This has been called a bubble by a few. Warren Buffet is sitting on cash, and he has sold a lot of stocks. This man is a bargain hunter, and clearly he does not see value or bargains in today’s markets. I suspect he is waiting for the shoe to drop…

So pick your punishment…

Cal
 
Friday is my PET-scan and Tuesday is an appointment with my urologist.

Pretty much I’ll have some clarity soon, unlike the economy. I’m a bit nervous and scared, because similarly and presently the future is unknown.

I even have to be open to chemo if needed. Hope chemo is not needed though.

I do know that I still have this aggressive Prostate Cancer elsewhere in my body, even though I have no prostate, it was removed.

For certain though I will be immediately getting a male castration injection, and be given oral hormone therapy to shut down all testosterone production. I might have some transgender side effects, but everyone is different.

Remember I am still kind of a skinny bitch, and I have a somewhat boyish body.

The hormone therapy is to inhibit growth, and the real treatment for the Cancer will begin. My hope is that my treatment will be limited to only radiation treatment and ADT (Hormone Therapy).

What I know is that radiation treatment is 5 days a week for 4-6 weeks, and hormone treatment, an injection every 3 months into the stomach area, and daily pills, for 6-months to even 2 years.

My bet is I will still be slim and muscular, but perhaps not as bulky. I can accept having a more effeminate build. Perhaps I will just become more boyish. One thing I know though is that the hair on my head will remain, but the rest of my body hair will likely get more skimpy. I already have greatly diminished body hair from lower “T” levels from aging.

My arms are kinda bald already, my leg hair is limited to my shins, and already my armpit hair is scant like perhaps a 12-13 year old.

Pretty much I don’t want breasts or enlarged nipples, but oh-well…

If all goes well I’m pretty much ensured a good decade as a very high probability (66%) and after a decade the coin toss (50%) of survival.

My positive spin on all this is better now before the DOGE Bags destroy the health care system for retirees.

Likely will get a PSA test every 3 months, perhaps for the rest of my life.

Oh-well…

Cal
 
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The DOW settled down to a gain of around 383 points, from a peak well over 500 points.

Meanwhile gold is making higher highs.

If you do the technical analysis and expand the charts here is how the DOW and Gold differ: Gold is making new higher highs and is showing an upward swing; The DOW has been bouncing and migrating upward, but the 3-month and 6-month charts clearly indicate a downtrend.

Gold is betting on inflation, but the DOW is clearly showing a slowdown.

My spin is the bubble still has not popped, and “look out below.”

Gold I think is the safer bet. Equities is a gamble.

Anyways we are not in a recession yet…

BTW there is an expression on Wall Street that crazy, unusual, or odd things can continue longer than you can imagine. A good example was the housing bubble.

We are in one of those times…

Cal
 
More stockpiling happened in February.

Remember the stockpiling that happened in the last quarter that created a deficit and forced a downward revision in GNP?

Well connect the dots. The stockpiling will likely again lead to a deficit that will again lower GNP likely in a surprise revision just like the last quarter of 2024.

Let’s see if this plays out like I’m predicting. Likely a favorable GNP number suggesting either sideways movement of growth, then a surprise revision to negative growth.

Know that negative growth in two consecutive quarters defines a recession.

Let’s see if my logic pans out…

Cal
 
A few great finds: a 2 pound 15 ounce 2-piece pine tele body made of clear pine; a baritone neck sold new as a discount with several costly upgrades effectively for free; a severely discounted set of Sperzel tuners sold as used, but in as if new condition; a roasted maple vintage neck spec’ed as a custom order sold as a discount.

I’m kinda running into great values that are “no-brainers.” To my surprise I’m finding a cluster of values. Am I lucky, or is it just being OCD in a great way?

So I wonder when a recession hits, will people be selling their heirlooms and treasures like during the credit crisis of 2008?

“Keep your ammo dry,” they say…

Cal
 
No one will want to buy US currency or bonds, if there is no trust in how the regime both creates stability/uncertainty, and if they will pay up on debts owed. Currently, the regime doesn't want to pay for services rendered or money already allocated and approved by Congress, on top of the yo-yo effect of tariffs on-tariffs off, which is creating uncertainty in what was formerly the most stable currency to invest in. And what if the foreign investors (China for one) call on all their T notes because of the international view that our economy is unstable, and we simply don't pay up? One year ago, I would have said that is an impossibility, as would most people, but now that we've seen Team Mean renege on monies already approved by the body with the actual power of the purse, I think all bets are off. I'm actually worrying about there being anything left in my one small retirement fund, and if I should take the hit and put it into either another more stable investment, or take a bigger hit and stuff it in a pillowcase. I'm willing to bet a nice restored typewriter or a nicer bicycle, that we see widespread, bank runs before the next presidential election cycle. I don't have much, just like most people in this country, but the banks don't have enough cash on hand to allow us all to close our accounts due to uncertainty and lack of trust.
Phil
 
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I’m on Phil’s view. For the U.S. we will not suffer the austerity required. We have a divided population that is fractured, and our population is too large to do what Canada did to get rid of the bloat and pay down debt.

Rule of law and a constitutional crisis is in action here, and without trust and good faith a currency is kinda worth nothing.

Donald Trump is known to use courts and litigation to enforce his will in negotiating down his debt, and not paying his bills. He has bankrupted casinos he owned not just once or twice, but many-many times.

Debt loads will lead to ruin for not just households. The culture post 2007-2008 has been living beyond our means, buying new cars even with flimsy credit, and even living on credit.

The headlines of consumer debt loads, and unpaid average credit card balances, somehow has not been reflected in consumer belt tightening, and according to the FED consumer spending remains strong when it clearly should not be so robust.

Granted that this number is a bit skewed by some people loading up the truck and hoarding to beat future price increases from tariffs.

The reported drop in consumer sentiment somehow does not match the FED’s consumption numbers. This will add to the trap-door effect that will happen as a “surprise.”

BTW taking the hit is never good. Stick with the longer-term plan, and don’t lock in losses. Remember your original plan, move forward from there as a foundation. Lastly remember time is generally your friend.

Cal
 
Pete,

Eyes wide open, pretty much the surgery and these PET-scans are just the beginning.

I’m just getting prepared for the real treatment.

The positive spin is after the treatment, the decade I was ensured by my urologist actually starts post treatment.

So while a tough period lays immediately ahead directly, once done I should be good. The odds are 66% in my favor, I’m 67, so that gets me to 77, and then the odds change to 50-50 to make it to 82.

Not bad odds at all…

Also know even though gusto and energy is fading due to aging, my quality of life is very high. I’m not disabled or handicapped. I’m more alive than most…

Cal
 
Grandson again today. His father has a job interview today for a Putnam County high school.

I’m excited about an incoming Strat neck, the new pine body Tele that is sub 3 pounds.

I need to order some parts to move forward, but there is no sense of urgency. Since my parts-casters are so modular there are many evolutions via trial and error that are a learning process. Last night I realized how the baritone is really-really a great element to my style.

I am doing things that are not common that are leading to my own style. This is very pleasing. A pleasant adventure of sorts.

Cal
 
The markets were mildly red today.

Lately a lot of churning, but to filter out the noise I have concentrated on the DOW lately to see trend.

Cal
 
Phil_F_NM said:
No one will want to buy US currency or bonds, if there is no trust in how the regime both creates stability/uncertainty, and if they will pay up on debts owed. Currently, the regime doesn't want to pay for services rendered or money already allocated and approved by Congress, on top of the yo-yo effect of tariffs on-tariffs off, which is creating uncertainty in what was formerly the most stable currency to invest in. And what if the foreign investors (China for one) call on all their T notes because of the international view that our economy is unstable, and we simply don't pay up? One year ago, I would have said that is an impossibility, as would most people, but now that we've seen Team Mean renege on monies already approved by the body with the actual power of the purse, I think all bets are off. I'm actually worrying about there being anything left in my one small retirement fund, and if I should take the hit and put it into either another more stable investment, or take a bigger hit and stuff it in a pillowcase. I'm willing to bet a nice restored typewriter or a nicer bicycle, that we see widespread, bank runs before the next presidential election cycle. I don't have much, just like most people in this country, but the banks don't have enough cash on hand to allow us all to close our accounts due to uncertainty and lack of trust.
Phil
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Things are so unstable now, I wonder how my brokerage team that manages mutual funds and other investments is able to make any decisions other than to stand pat. When the POTUS basically ignores the judiciary and gives the finger to anyone or anything that gets in the way of his vengeance agenda, anything is possible. This is like a bad horror movie, with all of us as potential victims. I can imagine interference with the 2026 congressional election - anything from contesting all results to cancelling or postponing them (indefinitely). I can also imagine increasing civil disobedience and the reaction from DJT and his deputies: Call on the MAGA faithfuls to counterattack. Or even call on law enforcement and/or the military to squelch protests. And here is what I believe will happen: Sides will be chosen, and I would not rule out civil war...again. Think this over-reaction and beyond possibility?

Re-assure me that it is over-reaction, but I fear, given the paralyzed congress and the sycophants in the SCOTUS, there will be no other end to this craziness. And even if the SCOTUS that granted him immunity last year decided he has gone too far in any one of his actions, be it illegal deportations, or closing whole government agencies and departments or eliminating social security and health care benefits.....what would keep him from disobeying their judgement?
 
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I don’t discount the potential for civil unrest and violence.

This is what happens when rule of law breaks down.

The justice department has no power to enforce rulings. It is in effect a paper tiger, or a toothless one.

Most people want to be left in peace and live peaceful lives, live and let live, but when threatened, cornered, or through loss, desperate times are ahead.

Even cool headed liberals will buy guns and kill people sadly when they have nothing to loose.

Perhaps the tipping point will be some retired guy with a marginal existence and his Social Security is threatened. Remember that inflation and hunger caused Arab Spring.

Then there are patriots who will defend the Constitution. Political assasinations I predict sooner or later. Pretty much 3rd world behavior.

Who will buy U.S. Dollar debt when we reach that level of instability?

Cal
 
Calzone said:
I don’t discount the potential for civil unrest and violence.

This is what happens when rule of law breaks down.

The justice department has no power to enforce rulings. It is in effect a paper tiger, or a toothless one.

Most people want to be left in peace and live peaceful lives, live and let live, but when threatened, cornered, or through loss, desperate times are ahead.

Even cool headed liberals will buy guns and kill people sadly when they have nothing to loose.

Perhaps the tipping point will be some retired guy with a marginal existence and his Social Security is threatened. Remember that inflation and hunger caused Arab Spring.

Then there are patriots who will defend the Constitution. Political assasinations I predict sooner or later. Pretty much 3rd world behavior.

Who will buy U.S. Dollar debt when we reach that level of instability?

Cal
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If you ask Copilot (which sometimes is correct!) for the definition of a "rogue nation", it tells you this:

A "rogue nation" typically refers to a country that acts in defiance of international norms or laws. These nations often engage in actions like developing weapons of mass destruction, supporting terrorism, or oppressing their own citizens.

'Nuff said? The U.S will soon become a pariah on the world stage.
 
The market ended the day mildly in the red. Earlier in the day was a moderate rally.

Hmmm.

Uncertainty-uncertainty…

Cal
 
Around mid afternoon we had the opportunity to walk to the downtown. The grandson got picked up, and “Maggie” had some library books to return.

We stopped at the Bruised Apple, a used bookstore that is kinda like Peekskill’s own form/version of a Strand used books in NYC.

Upon entering next to an antique typewriter by the door I saw a book that caught my eye: “The Complete Worse-Case Scenario Survival Handbook.”

I picked it up and somehow engaged with the old hippy behind the counter. We joked about how it is a good book that reflects the time we live in.

I had two quips: one is that every house in Peekskill should have this book; and after a response from that I followed with why are we laughing.

Scenarios like what to do if your parachute fails…

I enjoy finding used CD’s. Found an old Ray Charles doing the blues, and an odd pick for me, a classic but remastered Greatful Dead album.

Upon checkout my fellow old hippy showed me a hardcover version that was twice as thick as the paperback version I was going to purchase. So it was about 300 pages and included a CD. For $2.00 I went for the upgraded version, meaning hardcover.

My exiting comment was that the paperback version was for the guy free-falling with the failed parachute accelerating to terminal velolocity, about 100 MPH with ground impact rapidly approaching would want the smaller less dense book.

We laughed. For $20.00 cash I got the “friendly” discount for two CD’s and the book.

So the moral of the story denotes, but also questions my positive mental attitude. If we can laugh about the state of our country, and also joke about trying to survive a failed sky-dive, I pretty much can judge the guy behind the counter also is an optimist.

“Maggie” inquired about the book, and she mentioned not showing it to the father of our grandson after I hyped the Navy SEAL Survival Training.

The grandson’s father thinks and creates negative death spirals. He seems hardwired that way, but Maggie’s response is also a negative spin.

Just like the thought, “At least I’m not my unhappy boss who was a control freak and a bully,” I have all these worse-case scenarios to displace any negative thinking.

“At least I’m not accelerating to 100 MPH with a failed parachute…” I can say.

So many people defeat themselves…

An interesting response happened during that intimate chance breakfast with the middle daughter of Paul Newman and Moon Unit Zappa in Brattleboro Vermont. In conversation came up my background and past that involved deep trauma and a decade in Foster Care.

Pretty much an epiphany of sorts, that my bad experiences and where I came from actually defines who I am, and because of those horrible experiences I actually became a better man who has more feeling and deeper experiences that actually make me more animated and alive.

I also have a level of confidence, only because I know the resilience I display is not so common. Most people would be crushed and not be able to be happy, free, or even alive.

Anyways, some things seem innate…

Cal
 
Fed-Ex gave a profit warning and mentioned uncertainty going forward.

The DOW Transport Index is used by many as a signifier and early warning signal of an economic slowdown.

Generally I ask my local FED-Ex and UPS drivers about their spin on the economy. Last summer I got a report from an upstate UPS driver that here in New York the spending continued…

Back then, pre-election, it seemed New York with it’s outsized incomes was unaffected by what what’s being reported nationally.

Also know that UPS was laying off people, streamlining, and restructuring. My local USP driver had enough seniority to be immune…

Cal
 
Still stuck at 5 pull-ups…

Tomorrow is my PET-scan…

Will likely see the results electronically before my Tuesday urology appointment. Perhaps Sunday or Monday I’ll get the PET-Scan results.

Then the chemical castration via injection, and oral hormone treatment. The injections are every three months, and the pills 6-months to 2 years…

Hoping radiation treatment is enough…

Cal
 
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