A lot from you for us (me) to read and think about on this page. And interesting comments from you in #5321 and onward.
1 I reckon Ray Dallio didn't coin that phrase. He borrowed and inverted it from one that has been around for decades - "trash is cash". The jury is mostly out on Dally and his financial dallying. Let's maybe agree that he did some good, a fair bit of not so good, and a lot of in-the-middle. He was (and still is) building his nest and feathering it, in the good old American way.
2 His comment that you-all are heading into a recession needs to be considered. IRRC a recession requires three quarters (= nine months) of downward growth. Thanks to recent political events your country may beheaded into a full-blown depression. We can only hope it won't be like the one in 1929, which crippled your economy for almost a full decade and took the efforts of one of your most outstanding presidents, FDR, to turn things around. Also a war that stimulated the American economy by shifting it all entirely to defence production. We in most of the rest of the world are all hoping it won't come to this, but in view of the amazing political events of the past month, well, who knows?
3 A little further on you wrote, US home mortgage rates are now on average 7.1%. Let me quote Google on this: "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US is currently around 6.62%. This rate has seen a slight decrease in recent weeks, edging down from 6.7% in the week ending March 28, 2025. Rates for other loan types, such as 15-year fixed and jumbo loans, also vary, with 15-year fixed rates around 5.82% and 30-year jumbo rates around 7.20%, according to Trading Economics and Mortgage News Daily."
I know all about fixed rates, as we have one on our hacienda out int he bush in Australia. Not as good as the one on yours in NY State, but close. As for the rest, I'm not sure what a Jumbo Loan is, so back to Google I went, and got this: "Jumbo mortgage rates in the US, for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, are currently around 6.77%. For a 15-year fixed-rate loan, rates are typically around 6.11%. Adjustable-rate jumbo loans (ARMs) like 7/1 ARMs can be found at rates around 7.56%. "
We don't have these, at least not by the same name, here in Australia, and I for one am greatly thankful for it.
A little more Googling now, for the purpose of comparisons. How much do we pay in Australia for our homes? I again asked Google this, and got: "The average home mortgage rate in Australia is around 6.27%.This rate is for new owner-occupier home loans."
To be kept in mind that mortgage rates are much like the weather and our bipolar Ozbuck, up and down as the winds of global events (and of course business) push them to and fro.
Thankful I am, for my 10 year loan with a small, highly reputable credit union, which is far lower, in fact close to the home loan interest on your mini mansion in Peekskill. Like you, our main goal is to have this paid off by 2027 (we took it out in 2023) to save on interest. Even with the usual penalty for early payment we will be ahead by a great rate of knots, as they say at sea.
It's important to remember that in our crazy pre-apocalypse world out here in Australia, three bedroom bungalows on small blocks and with distinctly meh! design and build are now selling for AUD $1 million and up. Even with our lousy 60 cent dollars, that's a lot of money for us, tho' you guys buying up stuff with Yankee dollars get a 40% discount on buying down here. Our weather is pretty lousy and these days it's hotting up like we live permanently in a sauna, with even our eucalyptus trees starting to wither and die from climate change. But food is good and wine is great down here, people are friendly and the cost of living isn't what it used to be, but it's bearable. We have a lot to be thankful for, and with a national election coming up in May, we have a fair chance of getting rid of the environmental vandals who run our political-business partnership system. So life's okay.
That about does me for #5321. I'll now go on reading and see what stray thoughts go through my cranium.
So why am I posting all this? Even I have wondered about that. For the heck of it. Maybe to stimulate more interesting discussion. We get heaps of that in this thread, and a lot of good info and data gets passed on. Well and good.
It's good to have you back, BTW. I for one have learned a lot about a few things here, and I look forward to your latest in-your-face outlook on the world and how it is. As I'm sure many others do.
Thanks also to RFF for letting you go on posting all this. Our insane planet needs more open minds brave enough to say and write what they think and believe in.
As always, wishing you all the best and every success in your ongoing meds. At times you may feel it's all an uphill situation, but a little battling is good for the soul, and it also keeps the body fit. Positive thinking helps, and you have shiploads of that. So you just keep going and go on going on, boy!
