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Gold’s newest Intra-Day High is $3263.00. Read an estimate $3.5K to $4K in 2025.

This means the dollar tanks in purchasing power, and either a painful slowdown or a recession. Inflation will spike over 5%, and then kinda settle into the 4.5% range for the next 5 years. This will erode wealth. The cost of living will be climbing for a while, but in the meantime everyone gets poorer.

Sounds like stagflation to me.

Today I will load a U-Haul and help the kids move. I helped them move in, and the condo they rented was on the second floor. Should be easier moving out.

Doing a rotation through my electric guitars is an interesting exercise. Just so interesting pulling the best sound from each, as each one has its own personality and character.

It is April 12th and there is snow on the grass and roof here at the Baby-Victorian.

Although not New Mexico, at times the expression “If you don’t like the weather wait 5 minutes” at times applies to the Hudson Valley. Since Peekskill is the Gateway to the Hudson Highlands, we are the transition from river valley to a mountain river valley.

Cal
 
I have been a bit deceived at this winter season in my part of Scandinavia, just about a week of snow throughout! The latest it has snowed about here is 20 something of April but spring weather has been hanging around quite a bit so far.

Interestingly I have a strange transportation habit, locally it's bike, regionally with trains and metro and then flying quite a bit around europe. I am a bit pissed off that I need to rent a car on a long weekend trip and somehow the prices doubled last week.

About buying used, only bought a new camera in 2019. Even used bodies seem overpriced, I was pondering to renewing my m43 but ironically the main reason for that is to get high resolution sensor shift for scanning film...
 
Interest on the U.S. deficit is 1 trillion dollars a year already, and our deficit increases every year.

The FED will print money (QE) and pretty much purchasing power will get eroded further.

Not good. Pretty much we are on a path that is called a debt death spiral. At some point our debt will become to big and because of risk of default no one will buy our debt (bonds).

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The kid’s neighborhood is on part of a peninsula that just into a rather large lake. Around Carmel are a series of large lakes. Not far away is the Harlem Valley and also Brewster which is very close to Connecticut.

I did alright loading and moving. I do feel the lower energy level that is part of the fem-out.

My second hematologist also sent out some of my blood for genetic testing. I was pretty much against 23&Me type of testing, but this has a legitimate medical reason. I wonder what I might learn?

So I’m tired now from the moving work, but I feel relaxed. The hot shower felt great.

It was rewarding seeing the grandkids.

Cal
 
A lot from you for us (me) to read and think about on this page. And interesting comments from you in #5321 and onward.

1 I reckon Ray Dallio didn't coin that phrase. He borrowed and inverted it from one that has been around for decades - "trash is cash". The jury is mostly out on Dally and his financial dallying. Let's maybe agree that he did some good, a fair bit of not so good, and a lot of in-the-middle. He was (and still is) building his nest and feathering it, in the good old American way.
2 His comment that you-all are heading into a recession needs to be considered. IRRC a recession requires three quarters (= nine months) of downward growth. Thanks to recent political events your country may beheaded into a full-blown depression. We can only hope it won't be like the one in 1929, which crippled your economy for almost a full decade and took the efforts of one of your most outstanding presidents, FDR, to turn things around. Also a war that stimulated the American economy by shifting it all entirely to defence production. We in most of the rest of the world are all hoping it won't come to this, but in view of the amazing political events of the past month, well, who knows?

3 A little further on you wrote, US home mortgage rates are now on average 7.1%. Let me quote Google on this: "The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US is currently around 6.62%. This rate has seen a slight decrease in recent weeks, edging down from 6.7% in the week ending March 28, 2025. Rates for other loan types, such as 15-year fixed and jumbo loans, also vary, with 15-year fixed rates around 5.82% and 30-year jumbo rates around 7.20%, according to Trading Economics and Mortgage News Daily."

I know all about fixed rates, as we have one on our hacienda out int he bush in Australia. Not as good as the one on yours in NY State, but close. As for the rest, I'm not sure what a Jumbo Loan is, so back to Google I went, and got this: "Jumbo mortgage rates in the US, for a 30-year fixed-rate loan, are currently around 6.77%. For a 15-year fixed-rate loan, rates are typically around 6.11%. Adjustable-rate jumbo loans (ARMs) like 7/1 ARMs can be found at rates around 7.56%. "

We don't have these, at least not by the same name, here in Australia, and I for one am greatly thankful for it.

A little more Googling now, for the purpose of comparisons. How much do we pay in Australia for our homes? I again asked Google this, and got: "The average home mortgage rate in Australia is around 6.27%.This rate is for new owner-occupier home loans."

To be kept in mind that mortgage rates are much like the weather and our bipolar Ozbuck, up and down as the winds of global events (and of course business) push them to and fro.

Thankful I am, for my 10 year loan with a small, highly reputable credit union, which is far lower, in fact close to the home loan interest on your mini mansion in Peekskill. Like you, our main goal is to have this paid off by 2027 (we took it out in 2023) to save on interest. Even with the usual penalty for early payment we will be ahead by a great rate of knots, as they say at sea.

It's important to remember that in our crazy pre-apocalypse world out here in Australia, three bedroom bungalows on small blocks and with distinctly meh! design and build are now selling for AUD $1 million and up. Even with our lousy 60 cent dollars, that's a lot of money for us, tho' you guys buying up stuff with Yankee dollars get a 40% discount on buying down here. Our weather is pretty lousy and these days it's hotting up like we live permanently in a sauna, with even our eucalyptus trees starting to wither and die from climate change. But food is good and wine is great down here, people are friendly and the cost of living isn't what it used to be, but it's bearable. We have a lot to be thankful for, and with a national election coming up in May, we have a fair chance of getting rid of the environmental vandals who run our political-business partnership system. So life's okay.

That about does me for #5321. I'll now go on reading and see what stray thoughts go through my cranium.

So why am I posting all this? Even I have wondered about that. For the heck of it. Maybe to stimulate more interesting discussion. We get heaps of that in this thread, and a lot of good info and data gets passed on. Well and good.

It's good to have you back, BTW. I for one have learned a lot about a few things here, and I look forward to your latest in-your-face outlook on the world and how it is. As I'm sure many others do.

Thanks also to RFF for letting you go on posting all this. Our insane planet needs more open minds brave enough to say and write what they think and believe in.

As always, wishing you all the best and every success in your ongoing meds. At times you may feel it's all an uphill situation, but a little battling is good for the soul, and it also keeps the body fit. Positive thinking helps, and you have shiploads of that. So you just keep going and go on going on, boy!
 
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A recession can take 9-months or even a year to report. Pretty much all you need is two quarters of negative growth and that defines a recession, but there often is a delayed realization.

We are at a point where the first quarter already is negative. Know that the 4th quarter of 2024 though was robust, likely due to hoarding. The first quarter surprisingly to the FED and economists got revised lower and was updated because of a revised trade deficit number.

In context 4th quarter 2024 was robust because of hoarding in anticipation of tariffs, so maybe or maybe not the first quarter of 2025 growing negative could be a head-fake, but then after what we experienced recently, the flight of capitol, the uncertainty, and the sustained policy seems too much negativity to overcome for the second quarter.

Then add onto that the evaporation of over 11 trillion dollars of wealth. The wealth effect is now an inverse wealth effect.

Presently the consumer seems maxed out on debt, paying minimums on credit card debt, and are buying less. Kinda like recession spending has happened or is happening.

The 7.1% is from a recent headline. Pretty much this reflects the change from old Internet data that is less current. The value of your data though is the history, and realize that the updated 7.1 reflects the turbulence and chaos in the bond market. I attributed the 7.1% to a report and it has to be taken into context with the shock that built up and just recently happened.

The 7.49% long term-average is simple math, yet is old data. The point I try to make here is historically over periods of decades the long-term average is still higher than current rates. If you can afford and want to buy a house, effectively interests while not under 3% are still “historically” low.

In my book 7.1% is less than 7.49%.

Then consider that interest rates have been double digit, and I do believe in statistics and an economic premise of “regression to the mean.”

We had a very extended period of disinflation that coincided with the Greenspan era at the FED and globalization. Imagine the horror of an equal period of inflation to counter balance the disinflation as globalization faces a collapse. This is the future I see.

It kinda is a bit of a “Mad-Max” scenario of the end of the world as we knew it.

Cal
 
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I am a bit stiff and sore from yesterday’s moving exercise. I expected this, but know I didn’t hammer myself.

Today another day at the kid’s house. The grandson considers the new cottage as his older sister’s house, and that the Baby-Victorian is his house.

Pretty much he uses his baby-name for me “Bah” to come and hang with me all the time.

There is a lot of natural beauty near and around Carmel. Brewster and the Great Swamp is nearby. Seems like lake after lake, with some rather vast. A country like setting still unspoiled and kinda rural. Southern Putnam County, and know that Peekskill borders Putnam County on the western edge of Westchester on the Hudson River. Carmel is kinda due east close to the Connecticut border.

Cal
 
In fact the kid’s live in a town called Kent that is in Carmel, the township.

What we learned is that there is slim pickings, and an amplified un-affordability in the Hudson Valley. Basically the word is out.

Not much available and what is available is pricy. Top dollar even for a fixer upper that needs a gut Reno. In my face is how lucky we were in securing the Baby-Victorian when we did.

Carmel is a place that is a big recreational community, and it is understandable why it is a hot market.

Tomorrow we will have the grandson so the father can finish the emptying of the condo rental. Nothing heavy or bulky that one man can’t handle, except Dave is ill suited for this physical work, an out of shape smoker who gets overwhelmed by such tasks.

It was pretty hard trying to work with him moving things that were bulky or heavy enough that it required two people. When I would say “lift” nothing happened. Not an ideal team player.

In the load in I did most of the work. On the load out a friend Pat took up the slack thankfully so I didn’t have to hammer.

Tomorrow I get my annual physical with my PCP. Next week I see my primary hematologist the old geezer. The blood was already drawn, so pretty much we will talk about the results. Hopefully I can stop taking the Eliquis for the blood clot. A simple D-Dimmer test from the blood that was drawn will signify if I still have an active blood clot or not.

I have two Strats, and plugged them in this morning to compare. The Candy Apple Red Strat has a trem and I think because of the heavy steel inertia block on the bridge from Callahan the guitar actually sounds more like tele rather than a Strat. Know that I’m a Tele player mostly so this suits me fine.

I also did a wiring trick using a 5-way “Mega-Switch” I had on hand. The position 3 instead of being the middle pickup alone like on a normal 5-way wiring is actually the bridge and neck as if a Tele middle position.

The black hardtail Strat sounds like a Strat. Anyways an odd difference, and I love both guitars. The black Strat plays well and the big deal is that it is featherweight. Lately it seems that lightweight swamp ash or alder is kinda rare. Glad I snagged the bodies I did. Seems like bodies now are boat anchors.

Lately pulling great tone from my assortment of guitars is a great exercise. Each one performs differently, has a different vibe, and also its own unique voice. This is a form of having chops or my own unique sound and style. I play mostly downstrokes.

Cal
 
Tesla stock looks to be forming a “death-cross” today. This is when the shorter-term 50 day moving average crosses the longer-term 200 day moving average. Generally a bearish signal.

I like fasting when I go to get my annual physical, and since the grandson is coming this is a complication. Yesterday had to run out to buy eggs. This kid east 2-3 of them.

I want that warm weather to happen. I want to sweat. My weight hovers…

Biking needed to get into skinny bitch mode, under 155 pounds. I now weigh 158.2 pounds, and know that muscle is more dense than fat.

I have to order a half dozen gig bags to store the newly built guitars. A nephew is graduating college, and “Maggie’s” brother from North Carolina will be staying with us a few days.

My guitar room will become a guest room. We have a convertible couch there that is kinda boutique and high ended that was free. It was gifted brand new by a furniture company that Maggie did a promotion for.

Our stairway has a 90 degree bend at the top, and my worry was that this couch that becomes a full sized bed would not fit. Somehow 4 guys got it upstairs, and put on these bulky arms. Seems like this couch now is a permanent part of the house.

It is kinda high ended and as a couch and bed is mighty comfortable. Luxury quality…

Cal
 
I don’t mind being under the radar. I don’t want to be a rock star of be in the spotlight. I don’t wish fame on anyone. It is a liability. I know this through “Maggie.”

According to a headline my gold mining stock jumped 20% last week. Some of this was due to the sell off to deleverage.

I bought this junior miner as insurance to diversify and it was a very smart move.

Cal
 
Markets are in the green betting that givebacks and exemptions will rescue the markets, or will they?

Pretty much pick bad or worse from a headline about the 2025 outlook. Will a recession be avoided, or will continued muddling go on indefinitely to be a long slump. Either is bad, just different.

As they say, “When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold.” Pretty much the U.S. economy is that dominant, but China’s economy too is also at that level, and then if you consider the European Union as a whole their combined economy is at the level of China’s economy.

All are experiencing a slowdown as globalization is rapidly being dismantled in a chaotic Willy-Nilly manner.

Fact is there are three big economies in trouble, and if one collapses the other two get taken out. This situation is a zero sum game with collateral damage and no real winner.

You and I are being gamed… Are you having fun?

I find it amazing the green screens. A lot of people believe there is value in the markets. Insanity…

Cal
 
Markets are in the green betting that givebacks and exemptions will rescue the markets, or will they?

Pretty much pick bad or worse from a headline about the 2025 outlook. Will a recession be avoided, or will continued muddling go on indefinitely to be a long slump. Either is bad, just different.

As they say, “When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold.” Pretty much the U.S. economy is that dominant, but China’s economy too is also at that level, and then if you consider the European Union as a whole their combined economy is at the level of China’s economy.

All are experiencing a slowdown as globalization is rapidly being dismantled in a chaotic Willy-Nilly manner.

Fact is there are three big economies in trouble, and if one collapses the other two get taken out. This situation is a zero sum game with collateral damage and no real winner.

You and I are being gamed… Are you having fun?

I find it amazing the green screens. A lot of people believe there is value in the markets. Insanity…

Cal


Let's not forget a very important point. What is told to us by the media, and what is really happening behind closed doors, are two entirely different situations.
 
The other day “Maggie” saw a black squirrel in our back-backyard. These rare squirrels are on Long Island and NYC, but this is kinda novel.

Black squirrels are a rare occurrence.

Maggie also saw a Blue Heron swoop over our marsh.

We live is a small paradise.

Cal
 
Lunchtime and suddenly we have a red screen. There goes the earlier 450 point rally on the DOW…

“Sell America” seems to be the trend. I think any rally will get sold into. Basically the exemptions on electronics is only temporary, so what is different other than the timeline?

Eventually tariffs will kill the economy. A stay of execution means you are still on death row. So more flip-flopping…

Of course all this uncertainty makes it hard to draw in capitol and build out any new business or industry. Mucho collateral damage.

Cal
 
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The “inhibitor” used with my testosterone killer will cost me (my out of pocket expense) is $206.83 a month. Multiply this out for 2 years. Ouch. BTW I have Part “D” insurance I paid for.

So now there is some subsidy and/or assistance program to help cover this expense. So I might not have to pay over $4.8K over the next two years.

Currently the markets are mixed.

I have to go back to my PCP’s office tomorrow at 9:00 AM to get my blood drawn. Cholesterol and glucose are needed to be closely monitored going forward.

I am mildly anemic. My PCP says this is a normal side effect from the testosterone injection I received. My complaint is a slightly lower energy level that I would not call fatigue. Oh-well…

So it seems like for two years I’ll be suffering a mild anemia. My glucose and cholesterol levels will be closely monitored, and my bloodwork also needs careful monitoring to prevent liver and kidney damage.

With the inhibitor they first administer the max dose, and taper from there if they have to.

Realize that it takes up to 6 months for the chemical castration to have its full effect. I got the blood test results back, and I already have dropped well into the “out of range.”

Cal
 
A death-cross on the S&P 500 appears to be forming. Could happen today.

Then the bond exit is hitting “ugly” levels not seen since 2020.

So let’s start framing the context of where we are now. We really have not recovered from the Pandemic, yet the valuations in the markets don’t really reflect that we still are enduring a Pandemic and pot-pandemic crisis. Some of the inflation we are experiencing is from then from over stimulas from the previous administration.

Separately my out of pocket costs for the first quarter is about half the 7.5% of my AGI to qualify for an itemized deduction under medical expenses.

Cal
 
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