NYC Journal

[Calzone]

First off, a correction: Japan is the biggest holder of U.S. bonds, and China is second. I had them switched.

It seems Japan has a mixed Triple A and AA- depending on the rating agency.

The U.S. in the meantime currently has a AA- from Moodies, Finch, and S&P.

Did you know that interest on the U.S. debt exceeds the cost of our defense budget and the cost of Medicare combined?

How crazy is that?

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Phil,

I guess it was a bit over 5 years ago that we went on that complimentary Rhine River cruise. It was somewhere along the Rhine where we went on that Mercedes’ tour. That paint process included zinc and galvanizing the metal. The primer is also a thick layer, then the paint. All-in all it was about 1/10th of an inch thick.

When I bought my Audi I inquired about the rust prevention. Pretty much Audi’s don’t rust unless the paint gets compromised by an accident.

My Audi is a decade old. I dropped something on my hood and created an few inverted pimples where I violated the paint. Been three years and the primer or galvanizing shows no rust even without the paint.

My Audi is a 2015.

I don’t know the timeline of when the Germans upgraded their painting, but it is impressive. Not sure if American makers do the same.

Meanwhile I see not so old Chevys with half the bumpers rusted away.

Cal

 

[Henry]

I’m retired, but I feel bad for businesses that are caught in the crossfire. Pretty much like being the fulcrum being levered against.

Life certainly is a mess for many. The world will evolve/devolve rather quickly once the shoe drops, and that might be the debt spiral that Ray Dalio was afraid of that seems to be unfolding.

BTW I visited a Mercedes factory in Germany. The rust prevention and the paint on a Mercedes is really thick and engineered to be mucho durable. I can’t see that level of quality in any American car.

Henry Ford invented the production line, but I can’t see a fair comparison between a German car verses an American car.

Am I exaggerating that a pause means a slowdown and loosing business? I can understand this, but I can’t understand the stock market valuations. Pretty much they don’t reflect the continued uncertainty and confusion that keeps getting kicked down the road.

The slowdown in housing and softening in the prices of homes reflected in the Case-Schiller index points to a consumer that also is in a pause mode waiting for the dust to settle.

While the U.S Dollar declined 8% since January, the Japanese Yen has increased 8% in the same time period. That differential of 16% weighs heavily on the carry trade. Simple logic: would you buy a depreciating currency that lost its Triple A rating or one that is appreciating?

I’ll check Japan’s credit rating… This is an important fact.

Cal

Yep, a pause means we can’t really cover margins with some of the tariffs as proposed, and we can’t really stock up (we aren’t built that way) and the artists who use our paint are all sort of in holding too because no one is sure if they have a budget for murals.

Montana is our main supplier out of germany, followed by Montana-colors out of Portugal. They aren’t actually related, just named really similarly. We mostly sell to mural artists, who demand high quality paint with reliable pigment and pressure. 50% tariffs would mean our business would have to raise prices by 45% (at least).

I see people talking about finding made-in-America alternatives but there simply aren’t any.

It will all sort out. We run it as a hobby (my wife and i are also mostly retired). But, it does make me sad to see artists having to put their work on hold while this sorts itself out.

 

[robert blu]

BTW I visited a Mercedes factory in Germany. The rust prevention and the paint on a Mercedes is really thick and engineered to be mucho durable. I can’t see that level of quality in any American car.

Henry Ford invented the production line, but I can’t see a fair comparison between a German car verses an American car.

Cal

Don't tell your President 😎

 

[Calzone]

Robert,

With my modest and humble income we pay the premium to have durable and higher quality products to spoil ourselves. Our kitchen has Bertazzoni appliances. A more thoughtful, well designed, and greatly engineered set of appliances.

Most of the time buying American does not have the highest quality. Worse for quality are cheap Chinese goods.

From what I read Teslas have loads of bugs and the fixes are a “Spackle-job” meaning patchwork.

An engineer from Vancouver bought a BMW electric vehicle way back, perhaps 20 years ago, he commented that the fit and finish on the Tesla’s were sloppy.

I count three Space X rockets exploding during the launch phase. This is current quality.

I have enough luxury and treasures in my life to feel rich, wealthy and comfortable. I say this as I sip coffee made from freshly ground beans from our Breville coffee machine.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The Manitou crown/steerer has 28.6 mm holes I.D. and the two titanium legs I salvaged are also 28.6 mm O.D.

Should fit, but it is an interference fit. At Grumman or a National Lab I could of possibly used liquid nitrogen to try and shrink the tubing and then fit it, but the alignment of the fork lugs and the brake studs are critical. Pretty much they have to be perfect twice.

So I had a problem where I had to make an interference fit into a friction fit, but also hold tolerances.

I let this stew in my OCD brain for a while, and both engineers and artists are both clever problem solvers, so I came up with a genius solution last night in my basement.

My basement is a warehouse of sorts, and somewhat organized, but also disheveled. I located the box of abrasives, and I pull out this 1 inch wide tape of abrasive on a cloth woven backing. A piece of double sided tape is spooled once around a carbon fiber handlebar cut-off, then I wound the tape to kinda make a 28.6 sandpaper bushing.

The crown and steerer are made of aluminum, and the sandpaper gently removes very little material very evenly, but I have to spin/rotate in only one direction to wind the spiral tight and to keep it tight.

Eventually I get an even bore through the interior of the crown, then the dilemma is how to increase the diameter, and I use friction and overlapping to make the spiraled cylinder a bigger diameter.

There is a story of a prison escape where dental floss and the abrasive in toothpaste was used to saw through iron bars. The prisoner obviously had a lot of time…

I spent about 30-40 minutes and I have to open the aperture more. The insides look as if CNC machined and is smooth and polished. The friction fit of course gets tighter the more I insert the fork legs, and at this point I can fit about a quarter inch inward. Know that the steerer has a depth of 1 inch.

When assembled this fork will weigh 1 1/2 pounds. The legs are 28.6 mm or about 1 1/8 inch in outer diameter, kinda oversized, so the fork supports stiffness and a firm rigidity for control. The bore of the holes is angled to introduce trail for tracking.

The overall length when assembled will be 16 inches axel to crown, and the aluminum steerer is uncut and is 11 inches long.

Pretty proud of my clever thinking. In the past I would of handed off this job to a machinist friend as a “G-Job” short for “Government-Job” meaning a personal project.

I’m excited… What a a conversation piece, and also a one-off oddity. A gift fro AJ that basically was destined for a dumpster but was saved with me in mind.

I have a lot to brag about… An entitled hipster once called me cocky, and passed on the insult of comparing me to a rich dentist here on this tread and forum. Matt who worked at B&H in the used equipment department had Leica envoy. Some people kinda have the right to be overly confident. Matt was just an entitled punk.

I guess my Cantonese is coming out.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Smut: Matt had a “Mini-Me” named Brandon who also worked at B&H. He too was an entitled punk who kinda was brain washed by Matt.

Brandon kinda reminds me of my neighbor JJ, short for Joe Junior, because he quotes and repeats Joe Rogen word for word.

Some people totally lack free thinking or individuality.

Both Matt and Brandon left NYC. It was kinda like a bucket list, bragging rights, so they could fit the definition of being “cocky” themselves.

They returned to their small towns to be looked upon as big hero’s.

Again entitled punks…

Again the Cantonese in me is coming out. Also the Alpha male.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

IBIS first made a steel Mojo in 1991. This today is still a highly regarded bike, kinda like a Fat Chance Yo Eddy.

In fact is was in 1994 that IBIS first came out with a Ti Mojo. For this one year the Ti Mojo had a shorter top tube, and in 1995 the top tube was lengthen to make the cockpit bigger.

This kinda validates my Ti IBIS Mountain Trials as being a show piece and one-off, and its date of creation being 1994. It has the shorter top tube.

Did you know that Fat Chance made a Ti version of the Yo Eddy?

A Ti IBIS or Ti Yo Eddy is like owning a vintage Ferrari.

Cal

 

[robert blu]

Robert,

With my modest and humble income we pay the premium to have durable and higher quality products to spoil ourselves. Our kitchen has Bertazzoni appliances. A more thoughtful, well designed, and greatly engineered set of appliances.

Most of the time buying American does not have the highest quality. Worse for quality are cheap Chinese goods.

From what I read Teslas have loads of bugs and the fixes are a “Spackle-job” meaning patchwork.

An engineer from Vancouver bought a BMW electric vehicle way back, perhaps 20 years ago, he commented that the fit and finish on the Tesla’s were sloppy.

I count three Space X rockets exploding during the launch phase. This is current quality.

I have enough luxury and treasures in my life to feel rich, wealthy and comfortable. I say this as I sip coffee made from freshly ground beans from our Breville coffee machine.

Cal

I agree with your style!

When I bought years ago my M10 some friends made the comment it was a very expensive camera, too expensive. Now a few years later (and not so many!) I still use it, my friends in the same time already changed a couple of cameras spending more money than I spent!!!
My philosophy is not too many things but good ones!

 

[Calzone]

In Europe the response about the court ruling was more subdued and less enthusiastic than here in the U.S.

A curious surprise in the pre-markets is that gold is presently the biggest gainer. Is this saying more uncertainty, confusion and chaos ahead?

I’m more on the side of the Europeans. The gold gain is speaking to me.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I’m with Robert: buy to keep.

My M-Monochrom I still own and it is still a great camera.

Cal

 

[Phil_F_NM]

I would have stuck the fork legs in the freezer, then used a heat gun on the crown. Get that thing just below annealing, where it starts to let you know that it's hot by a bit of smell, then put on the oven mitts and jam the fork leg in. Repeat for the other side.
Phil

 

[Phil_F_NM]

Regarding buy to keep, I completely agree, but whatever it is I purchase, I want to be able to be repaired. If there's a lot of plastic involved, I know at the outset that the item won't have as long of a life. If it's all metal, but parts are swaged or peened together, not bolted, or heat/cold interference fit with a joint compound, I also know the product is disposable.
This is how and why I get away with riding some absolutely spectacular, near priceless, very collectible bicycles as regular commuter bikes. I am living nearly paycheck to paycheck, but I saved up parts over the course of three decades and I build from my stash. I only buy or accept steel bicycle frames because the salt on the roads will destroy an aluminum frame over the course of a single winter, without judicious, daily washing. I can't count the number of times I told a customer that I will not allow them to leave the shop on their prized Cannondale because the road salt has eaten the annealed joint under a weld bead into powder. I show them, they get angry and storm out of the shop realizing their lack of care for their bike has lead to consequences that can't be repaired. As for my bikes and parts, I take care of them very well and all the components were built for repair, not replacement unless they are regular wear items, like chains, tires, cogs and chainrings. That's the key is to actually take care of the bike. Same goes for a car. Many folks in the US just don't want to do the maintenance required to keep the car in excellent condition, as a result, we often treat automobiles like cell phones.
Phil

 

[Calzone]

I just had my Audi A4 tranny serviced. More than just a fluid change, and involved adjustments. It has that new car feel again. This is scheduled maintenance suggested to be performed at 40K, but I had it done at 52K.

I suspect not many or all Audi owners do this. I’m behind a bit. Some of this maintenance should of been performed at 40K, but this A4 has seem a lot of country miles and highway.

I also have to give credit to Phil who taught me to stock up on the older now very obsolete bike parts that were some of the most durable drivetrains. I’m well stocked for a long future…

I intend on keeping the 2015 A4 and 1966 C-10 for decades. I only drove around 36K miles in 4 1/2 years of ownership on the A4, and I suspect that the 1966 C-10 has so little rust because it was a camper and only was used 3-seasons avoiding any exposure to salt.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The futures market was more enthusiastic, but now around 10:30 it seems to have adopted the European POV of suspicion and uncertainty. Reality is that this drama is not over.

Meanwhile I think there is an ongoing slowdown that seems to be going un-noticed. I think the three big U.S. averages are bloated and are way over valued. A correction, adjustment or drop is due. The consumer is kinda tapped out, and inflation is a serious problem that got hidden by tariffs and all that headline drama.

No news here is that our economy and consumers are both tired. Anxiety and uncertainty is the weak foundation that the markets are supported by. Not good…

Cal

 

[Henry]

Robert,

With my modest and humble income we pay the premium to have durable and higher quality products to spoil ourselves. Our kitchen has Bertazzoni appliances. A more thoughtful, well designed, and greatly engineered set of appliances.

Most of the time buying American does not have the highest quality. Worse for quality are cheap Chinese goods.

From what I read Teslas have loads of bugs and the fixes are a “Spackle-job” meaning patchwork.

An engineer from Vancouver bought a BMW electric vehicle way back, perhaps 20 years ago, he commented that the fit and finish on the Tesla’s were sloppy.

I count three Space X rockets exploding during the launch phase. This is current quality.

I have enough luxury and treasures in my life to feel rich, wealthy and comfortable. I say this as I sip coffee made from freshly ground beans from our Breville coffee machine.

Cal

I own a Tesla! One of their “Model Y” cross-over SUVs.

The issues with fit and finish are mostly fixed these days. When I picked mine up i walked around and checked the others on the lot. About 75% of them had some kind of finish issue (mostly with panels and incorrectly aligned headlights, paint defects were common). I still check out the new cars from time to time, and they have largely fixed those issues, though they still do occasionally happen.

The cars themselves are very fun to drive. Easy to maintain (tires occasionally, new air filters yearly), fast, cute (at least I think so), and inexpensive for what they can do.


But really, their issues are minor. I’ve never had a major software issue, and all the minor ones have been fixed within weeks. I’ve not once had to take my car into a service center for anything, and they have mobile service technicians who can drive to me if I need it. So far the worst bug I’ve had was that it didn’t sort my music correctly.

The thing to know with EVs in general is that they tend to fail early and catastrophically if they are going to fail. If you survive the initial thousand miles or so you will likely have few problems with the car.

 

[Henry]

Consumers are nervous because they all sense that, regardless what the government says, tariffs will lead to inflation. No one is sure what to do, prices had barely started to fall since our last huge run on inflation.
Plus, consumers run on vibes. The vibes are _bad_.

 

[Calzone]

I had an argument with a schooled engineer at Los Alamos. Although I had the title of Cyclotron Engineer, I slacked any college credential in science or technology, although I did get some college credits for the 6 month vocational school in electronics.

I do have a BA, MA and a MFA all in the arts.

I argued it was torque that was important to acceleration and he argued that it was horsepower. I mentioned how gears increased and amplified torque, but basically EV’s often have a zero to 60 under 3 seconds.

Driving one I imagine is like a golf cart, and I think I would love using the counter EMF as a speed controller and for braking.

Don’t forget the fire hazard…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Great news. Other test results came in.

My PSA level is 0.1. Last PSA test was one month post-surgery and it was a 2.0 if I remember correctly. Since I had a prostatectomy they/we expected/wanted a zero or 0.1 level indicating all my Cancer had been removed. A 0.1 level BTW is effectively a “zero.”

The 2.0 indicated I still had Prostate Cancer that spread elsewhere and I was ordered to get another Gallium Pet Scan pronto, and then soon thereafter started the chemical castration to drop my testosterone level.

So now I know that my Cancer is not growing, and know that my Cancer needs testosterone to grow. Because of the chemical castration and the inhibitor my Cancer is being starved, and some Cancer cells may die off, but this is no cure.

Radiation treatment is my cure. My Prostate Cancer is a Stage 4A, it metasicised but is kinda still “local” in a lymph-node that is in my pelvis. The radiation treatment at this point is considered “Salvage Therapy” because because it is a second chance to rid the Cancer.

Stage 4B is when the spread is more distant, and is much more serious. Many times it spreads to the bone, and at that point it often only can get “managed.” Think Joe Biden.

So also know that a second blood test denotes that my testosterone level is low. They say that it takes a full 6 months for the chemical castration to take effect, and I’m only two months into my first injection that lasts 3-months. I’m scheduled for the second injection on July 1st.

The ADT hormone therapy is working well, but know that some aggressive Cancers adapt and can become immune to my ADT that is presently working well. Basically the Cancer adapts/mutates to be able to make it’s own testosterone.

At that point there are other therapies…

The takeaway is that my Cancer is not growing, and that my ADT therapy is working. Also know while the side effects can be severe, in my case they are kinda minor, the worse being anemia that limits my energy level. I wound not mistaken it as fatigue though…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The market response to the tariff court ruling now is more subdued and more in line with the European view. More of a let’s see.

The tortilla trade might not work anymore. All those threats for nothing. Meanwhile 14 billion dollars collected might have to get returned. Don’t know if the money collected thus far will be returned. All speculation…

Gold is still up. Pretty much this is shouting “more uncertainty ahead…”

Cal