NYC Journal

[Calzone]

Gold made a big move to over $3.6K recently. Now it is basing a bit and getting ready for the next leg up. Pretty much a $100.00 jump in just about 5 days.

If the FED looses independence then inflation will be promoted.

4 months left in a year, so pretty much four more hundred dollar increases, one per 30 days and we have $4K gold.

Then there is 2026 and a projected $5K gold.

$5K gold in 2026 not so crazy, and is feasible, but it looks like it is happening.

Meanwhile the dollar looks to be loosing value. Know that only a year ago gold was around $2.5K.

The French and Japanese have a problem also funding their deficits, as will the U.S.

How bad does stagflation have to be to make a depression?

Porsche got de-listed from the DAX on a sell-off. Pretty much the American market collapsed enough for their stock to tank.

Financial policies are loosing support and there is pretty much “beggar thy neighbor” happening. There is a loss in faith in paper currencies. I mentioned crypto-currencies are not in any Central Bank, but these Central Banks are buying and hoarding gold.

Also there is a lot of trade going on between China, Russia, and North Korea that does not utilize the U.S. Dollar to trade commodities like food and oil. This exists outside world trade and is a breach of the U.S. Dollar as a reserve currency. The loss of being a reserve currency is a blow to demand.

There is a serious devaluation of the U.S. Dollar going on, and all Americans will be poorer.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

No lie: Gold was priced at $2537.80 on 8/11/2024.

Today is the 4th of September 2025.

About a $1K growth in value in a year. Simple math suggests that $5K gold in 2026 kinda is happening.

The sad thing is the value of the U.S. Dollar. Not much purchasing power.

If gold doubles in value in about 2 years could this translate into a U.S. Dollar loosing half it’s purchasing power in two years?

Is that a 50% devaluation?

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The grandson is playing his mother. Pretty much he puts on a show for his mom and then has a good day at nursery school.

Tomorrow he set a “bribe” of wanting us to pick him up and to buy him ice cream in Dob’s Ferry. He usually when he gets picked up goes to a Starbucks and orders a lemonade and a bag of chips. This is his routine.

One of my nick-names for the grandson is “Ham” because he is a drama queen. I wonder where he picked that up from? LOL.

The granddaughter’s Catholic middle school is mucho preppy and ritzy. Not really working class, and I would say professional class. They say that 99% of the kids that graduate Saint Mary’s get admitted to the college of their choice.

I tailored my guitars by plugging into my Fender 1960 brown Super amp and dialed in the pickups. Lots of fun. Pretty much akin to an orgy of sorts.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold is basing sideways around $3.6K the past 4 days. It only took a week to jump from $3.5K to $3.6K.

Anyways take note of the pattern that just happened, and after some consolidation, understand it only takes about a week for gold to jump $100.00 in price. 4 months lay ahead for the remainder of 2025, so 4 more $100.00 jumps is easy to see, and it looks viable that gold will reach $4K in 2025. Next is $5K gold in 2026…

The U.S. Treasury Secretary has been jawboning the long-term bond yields lower. U.S. bonds have been defying gravity as the world looks at government bonds as obligations that will be difficult to pay off. The U.S. is not alone with having huge deficits that are becoming doubtful to be able to pay off.

France is in a crisis because austerity is not being passed. Their deficit is burying them. They have to vote in a new Prime Minister because they have a failed government.

Around the world investors are not buying government bonds because they are basically bad investments and present too much risk like default and loss of capitol. Pretty much what was a safe investment in the past is no longer deemed safe. There is a risk premium that has to be paid, and that is higher interest rates to account for added risk.

So there U.S. long-term bonds are the exception in the world. The reasons why are: it is the largest bond market; it is the most liquid; and our Treasury Secretary has vocally promoted limited supply (limited supply means higher prices and lower yields).

Just know that on our doorstep is a bond rout where bonds are not considered an investment, they are now a risk, or a bet, or a gamble. It would not take much for the U.S. to be on the same sinking ship. Last time I checked our deficit was 138% of our GNP and our percentage of debt to GDP is larger than France’s.

To be blunt, France looks to be going bankrupt and is at risk of defaulting on it’s debt. Remember our debt to GDP is higher. Know that many countries have debt that exceed their GDP.

Sooner or later a wall will be faced, and a choice of two evils will happen: austerity; or bankruptcy. Both lead to a shortage of cash and cash flow, high interest rates, and pretty much a collapse.

Now understand that households and governments have accumulated debt and lived beyond their means. Debt and finance can promote growth, an example is how after WWII the GI bill and low interest loans help create suburbs and a middle class here in the U.S., but when maxed out this debt hits a turning point of where it is a drain and a burden that is crushing.

Back in 2003 I recognized that the Zero APR credit card rates encouraged overconsumption, living large, and most of all living beyond our means in an unsustainable manner. Basically the term “free-money” was used, and this Greenspan policy was followed by Bernacke policy of “helicopter” money.

Pretty much I knew this was a once in a lifetime opportunity, but I also knew it was a trap, and now over 20 years later, here we are.

Debt will crush governments like what is going on in France as I write, and American households withe big debt burdens like high interest rate mortgages or credit card debt (around 19%-20%) will get crushed like ants. Arab Spring could happen, meaning hungry children leads to a fall in government.

This has been a long-long game of Musical Chairs, know that eventually the music will stop, and I hope you have a chair. Not much of a country will be left, I envision. Pretty much The Greater Depression.

Here in the U.S. overconsumption became the culture, and this culture was exported around the world. IMHO there is a serious debt crisis not only here in the U.S., but all around the world. What happens when there is no room for investment?

In the bond world there are no longer higher returns on corporate bonds. Why buy or pay for higher risk than government bonds?

Understand that the Roaring 20’s was only a decade, but what is leading to the Greater Depression has been going on for over two decades. Today we have Robber Barons like Musk and Bezos…

Add onto this that AI could be a head fake that ends in a bust like the Internet boom.

A Data Center in Atlanta, built in a black community, has problems with water supply and environmental pollution. Not really a good business model or sustainable. Can we double our electric grid? Do we want nuclear power plants that take 5-7 years to build?

Pretty much what is going on is a collapse of free-market capitolism. Zombie businesses were kept alive in 2007-2008, AIG was rescued; banks that were failing were rescued; losses were socialized (IMHO the socialization of losses mark of end of free-market capitolism) and businesses were deemed too big to fail.

I wonder if the price we paid to avoid a collapse was worth it. I wonder if a real collapse would of been a real reset of the economy, and bad businesses would of went under and paid for the mistakes instead of the general public. I know this is a radical idea, but was the rescue worth it, and did we just kick the can, meaning collapse down the road making it worse?

So I guess this rant is really about reckless spending, living beyond one’s means, and the death of free-market capitolism and the socialization of losses that happened in 2007-2008.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

My junior gold miner up over 1% in the pre-market today. Steady gains, and the trading volume is over 150% of the usual daily average. Investors/speculators are accumulating and bidding up my small gold mining stock.

Pretty much looks like a hold on my position until the end of 2026. Long-term capitol gains rates apply. This could be a “moon-shot” if gold goes to $5K in 2026 as expected.

Kaa-Ching…

BTW is was a smart idea to draw down my 403B and invest that money into remodeling our kitchen and two bathrooms, as well as doing capitol expenditures of the two cedar sheds that adorn our small property along with the cedar pergola.

Certainly helped build up our equity, and the value/increase is kinda comparable the the run on gold.

Cash/savings certainly got a haircut and lost substantial value. I used my ammo, but I used it wisely.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold is hovering around it’s Intra-day high of $3644.90. It is just before 10:00 AM and the percent of average daily volume is already around 74%.

Speculation and momentum are real. $4K by the end of 2025 and $5K gold in 2026 seems to be real.

Now this does not bode well with government bonds and their deficits of the U.S. and other countries.

Like housing the term “underwater” could be used to describe economies around the world. A wall of debt impedes growth. A history making economic reset seems to be underway.

“Look out below,” I say. Hope you are wearing a helmet or hard hat.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

$3652.XX is gold’s new Intra-Day high.

10:07 AM EST.

Pretty much the first hour of the market open. Know the markets open at 9:30 AM and close at 4:00 PM EST.

Will gold bump up $100.00 today? Momentum and the increase in volume suggest maybe.

Then the converse is that any government bonds is riddled with too much risk of default or loss of capitol because governments are maxed out and close to going bankrupt: ie. France the second largest economy in the E.U.

Wake up call. Gold and not crypto is held by Central Banks. I view crypto as like being a Fiat or paper currency because it is not a physical asset. It’s value is like fashion: percieved.

A trap-door is opening: look out below…

Cal

 

[Phil_F_NM]

Only three weeks and change left in FY25. Grab the popcorn.
Phil

 

[Calzone]

Still technically the first hour of the market open and gold has a new Intra-Day High of $3654.20 and was at $3651.80 at 10:17 AM. At that time gold was up only 1.25%.

Meanwhile my junior miner since the open is up 3.26%.

So one bet is almost a sure thing as economies face ruin, and the other speculation runs with gold and has mucho more risk. I’d say conservatively 2-2 1/2 times the risk. The gains though compared to physical gold are a multiplier…

Exciting if you like commodities. Also know that JP Morgan, the largest bank in the U.S. suggests being overweight in commodities.

Disclaimer: displayed here are my speculations. Mucho risk is involved, and I kinda play high stakes. This is a game, but I know better than to bet the house. Please be mucho cautious. We live in danger…


Cal

 

[Calzone]

Generally the first hour of the markets has a lot of volatility. Some of the bidding is to cover shorts. Presently gold and my junior miner have settled into a range that is a backfilling of the big jumps made today with the new Intra-Day-Highs.

Don’t forget the expected bad jobs report and the possibility of undermining the FED’s independence.

The above news can likely add momentum to gold and gold miners.

For me exciting and entertaining. Pretty much I bought my “insurance.” They say a broken watch displays the correct time twice a day. Hope you are insured and without high interest debt.

I can brag that we bought the Baby-Victorian with an under 3% 30 year mortgage, and my student loans I luckily ReFi’ed back around 2007 at record low rates of 2.125%. My student loan I figure will get paid off when I’m 69 1/2 in the middle of 2027.

These low interest rate loans are considered “good-debt” because they are below the rate of inflation.

Do you believe the CPI as the inflation rate? For me I’m kinda seeing on one hand the 10%-11% devaluation as the inflation rate. Then again guitar strings are showing a 30% increase… For me the CPI underestimates the true inflation rate.

Our Baby-Victorian increased a lot more than the rate of inflation. Our home appreciated north of 50% in less than 5 years. Partly supply/demand imbalance, partly a severe housing shortage, and pretty much a limit on development due to local regulation and lack of buildable land.

Part of these gains was investing in remodeling so there is some exaggeration here. No loss of capitol here and no risk.

Understand we bought into location-location-location in a rivertown that is commutable to NYC, and is in an area that is nearby NYC watershed that can’t have explosive development.

I can also brag that we have mucho crazy low taxes for Westchester and city services like sewers, public water, and natural gas. I play tactical.

Also as you can tell I am a Chess player, and I tend to think not only long-term, but also 3-4 moves ahead. Note that I study history…

Global warming has less of an effect on us. We sit 70-75 feet above sea level. Yes the Hudson River has a tide.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Only 22K reported in the jobs report. More and bigger FED rate cuts expected as employment is favored over inflation.

So higher inflation and a slow economy is the definition of “Stagflation.”

The now obvious economic slowdown has lowered oil prices: less demand is expected in a slowing economy. Look for when oil trades below $60.00 a barrel. Note that the U.S. is a net energy exporter, but our energy industry uses fracking to extract oil and natural gas for exporting and domestic consumption.

It is around $60.00 or in the high 50 dollar range where Fracking becomes not cost feasible, and then there are expenses like capping wells: kinda expensive. Then there is the cost to restart the wells when gas and oil prices rise into cost feasible levels.

Pretty much this gets ugly mucho fast: it involves exports, mostly to Europe; it is a major export industry for the U.S.; and is not good for the U.S. economy or our deficit.

Speaking of deficit, who do you think will be paying for the higher interest rates on our deficit roll-overs at higher interest rates? You guessed right: the tax-payer. Initially the FED will lower rates, but at a point there will be no buyers, so then the forced move is higher rates, and after that tipping point these higher rates will have to be sustained until the deficit gets more manageable.

As the U.S. loses more ground as a reserve currency understand that further devaluation and higher interest rates are insured. Then don’t forget that the money has to come from somewhere, so consumer consumption and business will contract further. Then there will be a capitol shortage for any expansion or investment.

Pretty much cash flow will weaken. Again the money has to come from somewhere, and pretty much tax-payers will shoulder the burden and a vicious cycle of economic contraction will persist. The deficit has a compounded liability. No bailout, no Greenspan Put, no Zero APR, no helicopter money falling from the sky. Especially no tax cuts that only compound the deficit.

Pretty much most Americans will get FXXK’ed.

Is this the beginning of The Greater Depression? I see no way out…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Just made an out of pocket payment of $2445.00 for my radiation treatment that cost over $121K for 39 treatments.

Lucky I have a Health Spending Account, and I used untaxed money.

Many families I can see getting underwater and drowning in debt from these out of pocket expenses.

This gets crazy fast.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Today I threw out an unopened pack of men’s “Depends” underwear. Also thrown out was an opened half-full pack. The days of diapers are behind me. No more incontenance… Bought these using coupons, but oh-well. Had these just laying around as a reminder of when I had surgery in January.

On the guitar front the Pine Caster is still a tad bright with even the new pickup with weak Alnico 2 magnets, so I decided to go from 11’s to 12’s tuned down a whole step D-D. The tone even acoustically has some girth and fatness, but there is still mucho clarity. I think I now have a guitar that has the timbre of an acoustic piano.

Mucho percussive and lively also with a crisp fast attack. The pine body is UBER light in weight, under 3 pounds. Makes for a good candidate for a future Bigsby. All I can say is, “Wow.” The string tension remains almost the same, no need to adjust the truss rod on the neck.

This guitar kinda has the sound in my head. What clarity and richness with vast articulation enhancement from stainless steel frets. Somehow I harnessed the usual excess brightness that comes with SS frets in a great way.

Thinking of doubling down on another string order. Pretty good savings…

On the home front, the local supermarket nearby by CVS is now closed. They lacked sales, and they priced themselves out of business. At one point they had a great Asian noodle section that featured products imported from Japan. Oh-well.

The entire strip mall has a new owner.

No parking signs are up in my neighborhood: our streets will be getting new blacktop. The streets were all torn up by Con Ed doing gas line replacements. All new natural gas infrastructure. What was replaced was about 100 years old, and there were numerous gas leaks and emergencies right in front of our Baby-Victorian.

My natural gas meter was replaced and upgraded for free. This is a big deal for me because it saves me money in advance for when we get a 18 kilowatt generator. Otherwise it would have been my dime to get the required upgrade.

Falling leaves and bright yellow leaves are happening already.

What a boring life I have, but I like it.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Brattleboro Book Festival was in the middle of October last year, and I think back about some divine intervention that happened at the writer’s/presenters buffet that happened on a Friday night. Random chance presented some seats at a table, and already sitting at the table was one of Paul Newman’s and Joanne Wood worth’s daughters with her husband, and a woman who kinda was a wallflower that I would later learn was Moon Unit Zappa.

Again by chance the following morning we were seated together in the inn we were put up in at a table for breakfast. We were guests because “Maggie” had been invited to present, but that breakfast was in an intimate setting and I got to know the other guests quite well.

It was revealed to us that Paul Newman was an alcoholic by his daughter, and the book being presented was about the loving relationship of her parents though family photographs and celebrity published shots from famous photographers like Richard Avedon.

From Moon Unit I learned that her father Frank Zappa died of prostate Cancer. She explained that her father was a recognized genius, but he was not smart enough to have health insurance. I have to develop a timeline, not sure I knew if I had Prostate Cancer at that time. If I remember correctly it was in the late summer or perhaps in the fall last year I was diagnosed.

There was a process I needed a Pet Scan and there were insurance delays…

In conversation my MFA came up, and then there was a dig in about my writing. I openly revealed about being in Foster Care for over a decade, and having a childhood filled with grief, loss and trauma. I had to explain that a sad story is a hard sell, and that pretty much after September 11th I had the need to empty myself of unresolved grief.

I mentioned how trying to break into the literary world was oppressive. I did not have to say I didn’t have famous celebrity parents, but I mentioned growing up poor, knowing poverty, and somehow escaping poverty. I mentioned how I played the Asian stereotype of a math genius and techie, and basically I was just an actor who gave an award winning performance.

Then I mentioned how the hardship made me more human, more loving, gave me a deeper understanding, and made me a better man. It was a spontaneous performance that I’m sure will be remembered.

Irony here is growing up in Foster Care I had a constant worry of being forgotten. Later when I was 13 years and at home with my dad in a destitute situation, I would learn that my worry was/became true. I knew I was alone, forgotten and abandoned.

I get a gist that Moon Unit had to deal with a lot of family responsibility at an early age and to an extent had to deal with too much responsibility at a young age, kinda like the glue of the family. Somehow this all was unspoken.

I saw the $259K bill for my Cancer treatment, and now another bill for $121K for my radiation treatment, plus all my out of pocket costs. These bills are just for this year, and I can see how Cancer can bankrupt easily a family without the insurance coverage I have.

Just sharing a profound thought that suggests divine intervention is underway. It is beyond coincidence that somehow I am, or was prepared for all that is unfolding. I am not religious and like Frank Zappa I think organized religion is morally bankrupt and responsible for a lot of killing. I’m just acknowledging a spiritual side of me.

This leads to what I deem as a gift from heaven…

Today I figure out why the Pine Caster speaks to me. Unlike my other electric guitars there seems to be minimal coloration to the tone, not that coloration is a bad thing. Kinda like an added flavor.

The Pine Caster though has an acoustic clarity that resembles closely an acoustic guitar. Also the heavier strings add the sustain and depth of a piano.

The stainless steel frets add in this clarity and percussion that resembles an acoustic piano.

Last night I was living the dream, and my playing performed a leap. It was as if I was composing on a piano and learning harmony. Seems like I’m on a path.

Another thought is growing up alone helps me cope with isolation here in the burbs. I had a crazy bike friend in AJ, but he moved on and I wish him the happiness he deserves. Up here it seems there is mucho “extra-medium” and not so many “crazies” like in NYC..

This place is boring, but I’m cool with that. I’m fine being alone. I’m use to standing alone…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Did some research to form a timeline. Life has been such a blur.

Around October 16th last year I had a remarkable PSA level over 5. Previously I had a MRI indicating I had an enlarged prostate, but now it seemed like the time to move ahead with a biopsy that was scheduled for November 13th.

Shortly thereafter the results indicated that I had a serious aggressive Cancer. Then there was a delay in getting insurance approval for a PET scan.

I had surgery on January 15th.

So at Brattleboro Book Festival I still was unaware I had prostate Cancer.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

In reading through this thread I wrote about gold being above $2.5K in August 2024.

After the November election I predicted the immigration raids in Peekskill. Snarky Joe pointed out that we would be fine, and made clear of empathy that we would feel from people suffering around us.

Anyways an interesting read, and I’m grateful that this thread was not censored or deleted. There are profound thoughts here…

Cal