retow
Well-known
Olsen said:
Whatever market sectors thrived or will continue to thrive, including commodities, is based on demand (prices, inluding for Norwegian oil do not go up by themselves). And mostly consumer demand that is.
Financing of excessive US consumption however, was largely financed by increasing household debt (average credit card debt is at record high, mortgage refinancing boomed) rather than real wage growth, which was easy because of plenty and cheap money being made available, asset prices going up and banks luring customers in with teaser interest rates. If, however, the US consumer will haveh to tighten his belt, demand growth will halt and global economic slowdown eventually will be inevitable. Just watch for the next cycle of US retailers reports (which in turn are the biggest buyers of made in China goods. and guess where manufacturing technology and equipment used in China stems from - Europe and Japan. etc etc - it is a global economy eventually).
No offense intended to anybody, but you guys on the old continent have no idea of the consumption pace and intensity of the average US household as compared to a European one and how much the resulting demand pulled global economic expansion (says a European living in the USA for the last 5 years).
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retow
Well-known
Nikon Bob said:
You nailed it. The remaining question obviously being, when will the bill be presented and who is it going to hit hardest.
Olsen
Well-known
cmedin said:
Sweden's economical future? Very bright! Has always been much brighter than, say, USA. Sweden is one of the best countries to live in. In the world. You share this situation with quite a lot of young people I know of. I have children of friends and neighbours who study in USA, fall in love/marry americans.
I say to you all, very loud; Come home! You must be nuts if you don't.
cmedin
Well-known
Olsen said:
Thanks! I'm mainly aiming to go back home because we have an 11 month old daughter and I feel Sweden is a wonderful place to raise kids. We'll likely be purchasing the old family home located in a village of ~800 (east of Boras if you're familiar with its location) so she can go spelunking in the woods and pet the cows like me and my siblings used to do.
Olsen
Well-known
Nikon Bob said:
Bob,
This is something you share with people from Thailand, Indonesia and other 3.world countries. Also here a small elite try to make large parts of the population economically dependant on them. To push cheap consumer debt down the throats of people who cannot pay is illegal and strictly regulated in most of Europe.
Further; the purchasing power of most Europeans has grown the last 15 years while it has gone down in the US.
N
Nikon Bob
Guest
retow said:
That is very easy to answer by looking in the mirror. That does not mean anyone in particular.
Bob
N
Nikon Bob
Guest
Olsen said:
Two things here. First I am not an American but somehow Canadians fell into the same spending habits as our southern neighbours. Second, Europe also suffers from the same thing if you look at, as an example, the British housing market and who will get caught with no chair to sit in when the music stops. I really don't think that anywhere in the world will be totally immune to what ever may happen. Anyway, I'll hang onto my hat and enjoy the ride not having any practical alternative to doing so.
Bob
Olsen
Well-known
Nikon Bob said:
There is two things happening here: The dollar is falling. That has wide ranging effect on the world economy. As I have pointed out here (over and over again) it will hit employment in Europe, for one. And competetiveness of european produced products on the US and other markets.
The real estate market in Europe is a mixed affair. You can buy a nice apartment in Berlin for a fraction of what they cost in, say, London or Paris. These two cities, together with Costa Del Sol, the Riviera, nice villages in the Alps, etc. you compete on an international market were millionairs from just everywhere in the world, like Russia, Saudi Arabia and USA are participating. Prices are 'out of this world', and now, coming down. Somewhat.
But european banks are heavily regulated, are backed by 'safety funds', not by fancy 'financial engineering', as in the US. They are allowed to use only a fraction of the total estate value as colleteral for loans. nor are banks and credit card companies allowed to push debt on poor people that they can not pay. The debt could well be nullified in a court of law since consumer protection in the financial area his far higher than in USA.
Most european nations have far reaching social wellfare systems that see to that people are not thrown out of their homes just because they can't pay their bills or are without a job. - The degree of this vary from country to country, though.
I am sure that the Slime Debt Crisis will hit us here in Europe. I fear that also european banks, norwegian, included, have Slime loans in their drawers. Simply because they have been marketed so agressively in the financial world. Norwegian banks have a lot of money and are under a lot of preasure to invest to the highest interest rate possible. Still I think the exposure is low.
The 'Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway' (Kreditttilsynet) are right now busy looking through norwegian bank's books to uncover any exposure to Slime Loans. But imagine, two of the largest are partly state owned with a very conservative credit policy. If we are hit, we will not be hit hard. Indirectly, though, the consequenses could be enormous, some say. But that is left to be seen.
Further; most european countries have a strong fiscal position with 'funds' instead of huge debt and can take some bad years without having to send the whole bill to their own poor people.
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FrankB
Newbie
Olsen said:
I read most of the replies under this threat and must say I'm quite impressed. You have a point of view on everything, banks, currencies, oil, Indonesia, USA, Europe, wellfare, supervisory authorities etc etc
Either you are at least 1000 years old, have seen and traveled it all and have majored in about a dozen different areas...........
One little criticism, though, you constantly confuse cause and effect..........just a thought.
Humbleness is not a bad trait.
Olsen
Well-known
FrankB said:One little criticism, though, you constantly confuse cause and effect..........just a thought.
Humbleness is not a bad trait.
I am of the humblest of guys, I can assure you. Please, point out were I 'confuse cause and effect'.
John Camp
Well-known
I haven't been tracking the whole discussion, but I would point out that my US state of Minnesota, not one of the larger states in terms of population, nevertheless has a population that is about 1 1/2 times larger than that of Norway (and probably most of that Minnesota population is of Scandinavian ancestory, so you know where the rest of your population went.)
The population of the US is some 75 times larger than the population of Norway. We have at least three times more illegal immigrants than Norway has population. We are so large (though not as large as India or China) that the costs of the war in Iraq, compared to the amounts of money available in the economy, is essentially trivial. A billion dollars in tax money represents less than $4 per month per capita. The supposedly financial devastation of the Iraq war is costing the average person in the US about $50 a month, far, far less than the average person's debt service on credit card loans. $52 billion injected into the economy by the fed amounts to $150 per capita; this in a country that sold 5 million iPhones in a weekend for $600 each.
What we're doing now is working out a bubble. It's not the end of the world or the end of capitalism or even a clarion call for efficiency. It's just what it is; some people will get burned -- mostly speculators -- but most won't notice. Not much will happen to the lower middle class, because they weren't speculators, except perhaps in housing. The ones who lose their homes because of foolishness will be reduced to, well, smaller homes. Nobody is going to be warming their hands around a barrel or selling apples.
The US has one of these periods of re-adjustment every few years. Every time, people run around screaming that the end is near. It hardly ever is. Every time, one phrase you hear is "This time it's different." You hear it going up, and you hear it coming down. It's hardly ever different.
I personally prefer this to the kind of dreary statism you get in the Scandinavian countries, because it's a lot more fun, even for the people who lose. But maybe that's just me.
JC
The population of the US is some 75 times larger than the population of Norway. We have at least three times more illegal immigrants than Norway has population. We are so large (though not as large as India or China) that the costs of the war in Iraq, compared to the amounts of money available in the economy, is essentially trivial. A billion dollars in tax money represents less than $4 per month per capita. The supposedly financial devastation of the Iraq war is costing the average person in the US about $50 a month, far, far less than the average person's debt service on credit card loans. $52 billion injected into the economy by the fed amounts to $150 per capita; this in a country that sold 5 million iPhones in a weekend for $600 each.
What we're doing now is working out a bubble. It's not the end of the world or the end of capitalism or even a clarion call for efficiency. It's just what it is; some people will get burned -- mostly speculators -- but most won't notice. Not much will happen to the lower middle class, because they weren't speculators, except perhaps in housing. The ones who lose their homes because of foolishness will be reduced to, well, smaller homes. Nobody is going to be warming their hands around a barrel or selling apples.
The US has one of these periods of re-adjustment every few years. Every time, people run around screaming that the end is near. It hardly ever is. Every time, one phrase you hear is "This time it's different." You hear it going up, and you hear it coming down. It's hardly ever different.
I personally prefer this to the kind of dreary statism you get in the Scandinavian countries, because it's a lot more fun, even for the people who lose. But maybe that's just me.
JC
Paul T.
Veteran
that reminds me of the long-known fact re the high suicide rate in Scandinavian countries.John Camp said:
It turned out that this figure had been manipulated by a US academic, who wanted to prove that people in such a 'socialist' economy were of course more prone to depression. So i guess he hated dreary statism and it isn't just you!
retow
Well-known
Olsen said:
Quite a number of your statements I would disagree with, and it would be interesting to learn what official source you base your bold statments on. However, just a reply to your last two comments.
1. What supervisory authority and regulatory framework do you think US banks' European subsidiary companies fall under (eg Citibank in Germany)? And vice versa European banks' US subsidiaries? Got it?
2. Haven't all of the big European economies, Italy, France, Germany, considerable structural problems, high unemployment and significant deficits etc etc? (a rethoric question of mine).
Al Patterson
Ferroequinologist
John Camp said:
Exactly! There is some difference though. The pattern repeats, but usually the asset class is what differs between cycles. In 1980 or so it was Gold and Silver, in the 1990s it was the Internet Economy, so far this century it's housing. I hope we cycle back to Gold, as I have some in the Safe Deposit box...
Thardy
Veteran
RML said:
I hope the gas doesn't run out......
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3622129.stm
An excerpt....
"Norway's once vast oil reserves in the North Sea are dwindling, and the government is facing tough choices when planning for the country's economic future.
Since oil was discovered on the Norwegian continental shelf in 1971, this small nation has been propelled into the world's third largest oil and gas exporter, and petroleum activities contribute 20% of the gross domestic product (GDP).
But now forecasts suggest the country's economic mainstay has started its inevitable decline.
The oil and energy minister, Einar Stensnaes, told BBC News Online it was time to start looking at the alternatives.
"Not only is it essential to look for other energy sources. It is also important to look for other industrial activities to develop alongside the petroleum activity," he said.
Estimates say one third of the total petroleum resources on the Norwegian continental shelf are still unexploited.
The government works on the assumption there are another 50 years left of oil there.
It is not sure, however, that all the resources are exploitable."
You see, EVERYBODY cycles.
Olsen
Well-known
1.retow said:Quite a number of your statements I would disagree with, and it would be interesting to learn what official source you base your bold statments on. However, just a reply to your last two comments.
1. What supervisory authority and regulatory framework do you think US banks' European subsidiary companies fall under (eg Citibank in Germany)? And vice versa European banks' US subsidiaries? Got it?
2. Haven't all of the big European economies, Italy, France, Germany, considerable structural problems, high unemployment and significant deficits etc etc? (a rethoric question of mine).
US Banks in, say, Germany, must follow German law. This is to the advantage of the stockholders of such banks today. Quite a problem is that subsidiaries of, say, norwegian banks, 'only' have to follow US law in the US. This is indeed a problem for the stockholders of such banks here in Norway.
2.
I would say; no. Not to the extent that we see in the US. A lot of bull is written in US financial press about european economy. Like 'the fall of the wellfare state of Sweden' etc. - It has never thrived better. (Why buy something expensive from a private operator when you can get it cheaper from a public service?)
Germany is 'the world's largest exporter' and has a huge trade surplus. No small feat. Unemployment is high. Much due to 'die neues bundersländer; former East Germany. It has been an momentous task to transform former East Germany from rags to riches. - As if USA should incorporate Mexico as one of it's states, with a wide social wellfare program and all. It tells about how strong German economy is.
Italy is more 'typically Europe' with large parts of the country which is rather poor, like southern Italy. While northern Italy reckons to be among the richest parts of the world. Italy has prospered very from EU membership providing a stable and strong currency and stable interest level. One of the most competetive industrial nations in Europe.
France has a very conservative financial world with some of the largest banks wholy or party state owned. The new president will most likely privatize them, though. We'll see how smart that is.
The largest problem all these three nations are facing are all the imigrants that wants to live and work there,..
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Olsen
Well-known
Thardy said:
Yes, we do indeed se the end of the oil era in the horizon, - it will last for 'only' one more generation....
But oil is only 28% of our total GNP. And the profit from it we put into huge funds (pension funds, currency reserves, fiscal funds etc.) - we don't give it away as tax reductions.
But norwegian economy is far more than oil (I have written a overview on an earlier post here).
For instance; the value of our hydro electric power resources is far more worth than our oil resources.
etc.
Olsen
Well-known
John Camp said:I haven't been tracking the whole discussion, but I would point out that my US state of Minnesota, not one of the larger states in terms of population, nevertheless has a population that is about 1 1/2 times larger than that of Norway (and probably most of that Minnesota population is of Scandinavian ancestory, so you know where the rest of your population went.)
The population of the US is some 75 times larger than the population of Norway. We have at least three times more illegal immigrants than Norway has population. We are so large (though not as large as India or China) that the costs of the war in Iraq, compared to the amounts of money available in the economy, is essentially trivial. A billion dollars in tax money represents less than $4 per month per capita. The supposedly financial devastation of the Iraq war is costing the average person in the US about $50 a month, far, far less than the average person's debt service on credit card loans. $52 billion injected into the economy by the fed amounts to $150 per capita; this in a country that sold 5 million iPhones in a weekend for $600 each.
What we're doing now is working out a bubble. It's not the end of the world or the end of capitalism or even a clarion call for efficiency. It's just what it is; some people will get burned -- mostly speculators -- but most won't notice. Not much will happen to the lower middle class, because they weren't speculators, except perhaps in housing. The ones who lose their homes because of foolishness will be reduced to, well, smaller homes. Nobody is going to be warming their hands around a barrel or selling apples.
The US has one of these periods of re-adjustment every few years. Every time, people run around screaming that the end is near. It hardly ever is. Every time, one phrase you hear is "This time it's different." You hear it going up, and you hear it coming down. It's hardly ever different.
I personally prefer this to the kind of dreary statism you get in the Scandinavian countries, because it's a lot more fun, even for the people who lose. But maybe that's just me.
JC
Sure. To compare Norway to USA is irelevant - but comparing Europe with 365 million and USA with 300 is indeed relevant. I tried, in vain obviously, to distict between these two comparisons.
I don't know what 'dreary statism' you talk of regarding scaninavian countries where salaries has increased 50% in local currency - and 100% in US$ - in 10 years (since 1997), where a lavish pension, health care, education for your kids up through university + etc. etc. are included in a reasonable tax bill. Where you have 5 weeks holiday, by law,- and law and order with no horrible school shoot-outs etc.etc. Further: Comparing 'the loosers' of scandinavia and USA is like describing two different planets! On this matter I could write a book.
- Mind you; I am comparing Scandinavia, some 25 million people (but could add the Netherlands and Germany - close to another 100 million etc), with USA.
Nor are the scandinavian countries 'dreary static' technologicly. We were the first to launch high tech mobile phones (NMT= technological cooperation between the Nordic Countries, launched more than 20 years ago). I think you will find high speed 3D coverage for your portable PC in more places here than in Minesota. Here you can do your tax return statement by GSM telephone! I do mine by internet, though.
Socialism? The largest political movement in Europe (the world?) is the 'social democrats' of Europe. The social democrats are in government either alone or in coop, in a far range of european countries and are the largest political party in most of them. (Sure, we are a flock of idiots)
The current financial crisis is not going to be the end of capitalism (not even the socialists want that). It is not going to be the end of a deregulated US financial market either. For that the economical elite in the US is all too strong. They want it like that.
Europe could well be an alternative place to live for young americans who are fed up with 'the dreary statism' of salaries and ordinary people's wealth development and the heavy burden of having to pay, through taxes, the interest on a huge Federal debt,- paying for somebody elses party, - or war.
Americans will easily get a visa and, in most cases, a work permit, in european countries -indeed Norway, contrary to most other applicants from 3.world countries that are massing on our borders.
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Olsen
Well-known
Retow,
I work in the managment of a norwegian owned multi national company and read huge heeps of statistics on salaries and currencies (which I follow practically every day). I gather statistics from Nordic Council/NordicCouncil of Ministers. You find them here:
http://www.norden.org/start/start.asp?lang=6
And ofcause OECD:
http://www.oecd.org/home/0,2987,en_2649_201185_1_1_1_1_1,00.html
OECD is too much 'privatisation' and 'market' to my taste, though. Not only that, but to the taste of many universities here in Europe. Their statistics is fair enough, but their recommendations are, mostly, bull...
And ofcause CIA (What can we do without them?) and their 'fact book'. Excellent read:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
And we have our own company statistics on salaries and their development through 20 years or so, in four different currencies and countries.
I work in the managment of a norwegian owned multi national company and read huge heeps of statistics on salaries and currencies (which I follow practically every day). I gather statistics from Nordic Council/NordicCouncil of Ministers. You find them here:
http://www.norden.org/start/start.asp?lang=6
And ofcause OECD:
http://www.oecd.org/home/0,2987,en_2649_201185_1_1_1_1_1,00.html
OECD is too much 'privatisation' and 'market' to my taste, though. Not only that, but to the taste of many universities here in Europe. Their statistics is fair enough, but their recommendations are, mostly, bull...
And ofcause CIA (What can we do without them?) and their 'fact book'. Excellent read:
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/
And we have our own company statistics on salaries and their development through 20 years or so, in four different currencies and countries.
Olsen
Well-known
- I haven't read this one, but frequently see european economics being described as being on the brink of collaps by US media. CNN 'talked down' the swedish wellfare state, that it was about to collaps, we were told some years ago. - And indeed, Sweden did see deep problems after four years of conservative government which indebted the country 'to it's hips' - by tax reductions, some 15 years ago. But look now.Paul T. said:
In - about - 10 years the purchasing power of ordinary swedes has increased dramatically while it has been standing still in the US. Swedes have had a similar wage development as us norwegians. That is - about - 50% increase in salaries in the last 10 years - 100% calculated in dollars! And the swedish welfare state is thriving. CNN don't mention Sweden much anymore....
Despite the economical growth statistics show that we are not neccessarily more happy. The suicide rate is high in scandinavia,- at least I think so. So is drug and alcohol abuse and we chew anti depresion drugs like chewing gum.