retow
Well-known
I'll be on a flight to Zurich tonight and visit Switzerland, Germany and Austria. Once back I'll report how these three Euroepan economies are really doing (from experience rather than statistics)
LOL 😛
LOL 😛
OT: world heading towards economic recession ?
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Olsen
Well-known
retow said:
Excellent!
You will be visiting one of the richest countries in Europe - the world; Switzerland, while both Germany and Austria represents a good european average. Bring your passport and apply for a job permit. There is no reason to go back!
kevin m
Veteran
Of course not. We have strict laws against public hand-warming nowadays, lest those working in the shiny towers downtown have their will-to-work affected in any way that negatively impacts the corporate bottom line. And it would be tough to make a buck selling apples nowadays anyway, considering that even Juicy Juice boxes are filled with juice made with Chinese slave labor.
Don't trouble yourself, though, none of this will affect you. Until it does.
Al Patterson
Ferroequinologist
Olsen said:
I'll bet the suicide rate is high in those parts of the world where it's dark for long periods of time, (north of the Arctic circle) and doesn't have anything really to do with whether you live as a socialist or a capitalist. A lot of "reports" tend to report what the writer intends, as apposed to what the facts actually are...
kevin m
Veteran
Indeed. Idealism is a wonderful thing in the abstract, but it doesn't hurt to be pragmatic, either. My wife is evidently eligible for an Irish passport and she's going to get it. Just in case.
Olsen
Well-known
kevin m said:
She's doing a smart thing. While Ireland was among the poorest nations in Europe a generation back it is now among the best earners. Definately with a higher living standard than Great Britain, on average, to my opinion. When studying in London in the late 60' I hanged out with many irish students in the Norman Road/Barons Court area in London (Fulham) since I am a catholic (I am not that religous, though) and had a very good time.
We will see ups and downs both in Europe and USA, but the general living standard for ordinary 'average' people will be better in Europe for the forseeable future, a generation or two. The horrendous Federal debt - and the cost of it for the tax payers, is prohibiting even the modest form of social wellfare.
And your politicians? When Treasury Secretary Poulson said that 'a strong dollar is in the nations interest (otherwise foreign debt grows even larger)' the dollar fell to it's 12 year low. By then Poulson - and the whole White House gang, had lost all credibility. Those guys won't tell you the truth if their lives depended on it.
My advice to young americans; do as your ancestors; emigrate!
kevin m
Veteran
Not only that, but my name's Kevin and hers is Deirdre. So Ireland is bound to be the one place in Europe where the inhabitants can pronounce both our names. 😀
RObert Budding
D'oh!
navilluspm said:
Revisionist history? Remember the massive tax cuts that Bush sailed through the Republican congress (yes, both houses were controlled by Republicans). Add in a couple of Middle East wars and Prescrition Drug coverage for seniors and you end up with the largest expansion of government since LBJ!
Oh, well, if I die with more debt than I was born with, then I'm better off. The future looks very bright indeed!
Olsen
Well-known
RObert Budding said:
The problems that the US society is facing is far beond 'who's gonna be president'.
Bush or Clinton? Well, in Europe we prefer womanizers to dried up alcoholics, but that is not important. The important thing is that the US democratic system is ripe for a reform. A major reform of the sort we have seen in former Sovjet Union (but a better reform indeed). You need a democratic system that represents the people.
Among yourself, you americans, you find some of the best system critics 'in the world'. Pulnitzer Price winners, scientists and economists. You have some of the best (and the worst) press in the world. You have organised yourself in all these very nice sivil organisations prompting everything from sivil rights to environmental issues.
But you are not getting anywhere! Things are getting worse!
As it looks now it you have to Choose between Rudi Giuliani, Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.
The latter wants to invade Pakistan! Is the guy out of his mind? Is USA going to attack a nation of 160 million muslims? Hold on you hats!
Or Hillary. She tried, half heartedly, to introduce 'health care for all', during her husbands turn, but gave up stating that 'there is no way you can fight a trillion dollar industry'. So, she's not going to deliver.
Then it's Rudy. Who will be an extention of the sitting administration, a frightening mix of stupidity and horror.
Who's gonna lead USA towards a democratic reform?
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Well it took a while, this ran as a very nice conversation about the markets and I am happy that it has stayed away from falling over the fence into topics that can only lead to a different discussion.
I would like the conversation to continue, but let's be careful here, you know where political conversations end up and it would be a shame for this one to crash and burn.
I would like the conversation to continue, but let's be careful here, you know where political conversations end up and it would be a shame for this one to crash and burn.
einolu
Well-known
Olsen said:
Good point.
It is interesting to be keeping track of world affairs while living in America. You actually have to make a considerable effort to hear any news from the outside world, besides countries that we are at war with at the moment or some natural disaster (then the news will jump all over it and even ask you to send money to help). When you do go out of your way and find some world news it is mostly criticism of other countries. Random sound bites of how the Putin is taking away the freedoms from his citizens and reports of Iranians fighting in Iraq killing our poor soldiers (actions of other countries are rarely compared to the state of affairs in America, affairs in America are assumed to be perfect).
You get a feeling that you are living in the best place in the world and that much of the outside world can be a dark and scary place (don't you dare travel some place, and if you do, go take an all inclusive cruise or maybe stay at a resort). The political commentary can appear to be good, but it's all just repetition, not much there to actually listen to once you get used to it. You have to read international newspapers online to feel a little informed, and I am not sure what percentage of Americans do that. I am not even going to start talking about the horrors of local news, which mostly focuses on someone getting raped and shootings from all over the country, combined with a little bit of feel good news of an animal being rescued some place.
Olsen
Well-known
Rover,
Sorry, Moderator, I got carried away. That said, I feel that RFF is a very sivized place. I have not received any death threats or have had any 'rotten tomatoes' thrown at me. I'll step down from my political soap box right away.
- And step up on my 'market advice soap box' instead. I went out of stocks today and into cash. Almost.
Oslo Stock Exchange has fallen slightly more than 15% from the top a few weeks ago. Experts say that if the market falls 20% it is a 'falling market'. I am out.
- Æhum, well, he, I have kept a few Statoil shares because I find their quarterly report interesting (oil prices and stuff), and a few Frontline because I like the guy running the company; Jon Fredriksen (yes, I know it is stupid). And I will keep all my Telenor shares, which I bought low and hope will recover somewhat (most probably also stupid). If I keep it like this throughout the year, my windfall tax return sheet will be streightforward and simple. I lost all of this years increase (pluss a little), but had shares bought back in 2003 which did really good. The norwegian government got all the reason to be happy too; I will have to pay 28% windfall tax sometime around March, April next year.
Cash is king!
Sorry, Moderator, I got carried away. That said, I feel that RFF is a very sivized place. I have not received any death threats or have had any 'rotten tomatoes' thrown at me. I'll step down from my political soap box right away.
- And step up on my 'market advice soap box' instead. I went out of stocks today and into cash. Almost.
Oslo Stock Exchange has fallen slightly more than 15% from the top a few weeks ago. Experts say that if the market falls 20% it is a 'falling market'. I am out.
- Æhum, well, he, I have kept a few Statoil shares because I find their quarterly report interesting (oil prices and stuff), and a few Frontline because I like the guy running the company; Jon Fredriksen (yes, I know it is stupid). And I will keep all my Telenor shares, which I bought low and hope will recover somewhat (most probably also stupid). If I keep it like this throughout the year, my windfall tax return sheet will be streightforward and simple. I lost all of this years increase (pluss a little), but had shares bought back in 2003 which did really good. The norwegian government got all the reason to be happy too; I will have to pay 28% windfall tax sometime around March, April next year.
Cash is king!
35mmdelux
Veni, vidi, vici
jarski said:
Don't be surprised!
Many saw it coming just like we predicted the high-tech bubble burst. In housing, houses are over-priced and lenders eager for profit let loans to those financially UNQUALIFIED. What is one to expect from these poor business decisions?
Housing is a cyclical industry, which means every so many years its a boom and bust scenario.
The stock market feeds off people who panic, and sell their investments, etc. This is why the market is presently in disarry.
My suggestion is to not panic, STAY the course. And NEVER pay for something more than its worth intrinsically.
rxmd
May contain traces of nut
Hi,
We don't really have that many new immigrants now, as compared to ten years ago; while there still is a steady influx, it is actually much more controlled, especially regarding immigration from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The problem here was rather the practice that anyone who could claim German ancestry would get a German passport and would be instantly eligible for the German social system, meaning that by doing nothing many people earn more than they ever did before by working hard. Yesterday when I had my hair cut here in Tashkent I met an émigré lady who now lives in Germany with her son, receives 1200 EUR a month in state financial aid, does no work at all and spends six months a year back in Tashkent spending those 1200 EUR. This is the result of the combination of a very conservative ancestry-based law on citizenship and the traditional lack of a coherent state policy on immigration in a country which didn't perceive itself as an immigration target at all.
Philipp
just to correct you on that last point: in the case of Germany at least, the largest problem we face still is indeed that the transformation of East Germany is still going on and has in many ways gone terribly wrong economically. East Germany had a powerful industry that was in effect killed off within five years as a result of a rushed reunification, especially the monetary union which made East German products incompetitively expensive in their former markets. However in spite of reunification being rushed and having gone quite wrong in some ways, having succeeded as far as we have indeed says something about the German economy. At present we have a lot of Korean political scientists visiting Germany to study possible alternative models of reunification, and the consensus seems to be that a rushed reunification of the German type is really infeasible for all but the most powerful economies.Olsen said:
We don't really have that many new immigrants now, as compared to ten years ago; while there still is a steady influx, it is actually much more controlled, especially regarding immigration from Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The problem here was rather the practice that anyone who could claim German ancestry would get a German passport and would be instantly eligible for the German social system, meaning that by doing nothing many people earn more than they ever did before by working hard. Yesterday when I had my hair cut here in Tashkent I met an émigré lady who now lives in Germany with her son, receives 1200 EUR a month in state financial aid, does no work at all and spends six months a year back in Tashkent spending those 1200 EUR. This is the result of the combination of a very conservative ancestry-based law on citizenship and the traditional lack of a coherent state policy on immigration in a country which didn't perceive itself as an immigration target at all.
Philipp
R
ruben
Guest
"AP
Dow Industrials Plunge 300 Points
Thursday August 16, 1:07 pm ET "
According to the analysts this is the best time to buy stocks.
Cheers,
Ruben
PS
Do better, buy a Kiev. Who was the RFF folk touring Samoa ?
Dow Industrials Plunge 300 Points
Thursday August 16, 1:07 pm ET "
According to the analysts this is the best time to buy stocks.
Cheers,
Ruben
PS
Do better, buy a Kiev. Who was the RFF folk touring Samoa ?
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Al Patterson
Ferroequinologist
ruben said:
While I generally agree that the time to buy is when others want out, I personally don't wish to try to catch a falling knife.
Olsen
Well-known
Thanks, Philipp,rxmd said:
I did a lot of business with Leuna Werke in old DDR, buying LDPE of unique quality and dealt with very nice & proffesional people. We met a far more modest sort of germans with this dark 'russian' humor - which we norwegians found very pleasant (and hilariously funny), compared to the far more self assured, almost arrogant, people of West Deutchland. After a few months after reunification all the 'old buddies' were out and in came an all West German managment that changed the excellent product strategy of old Leuna. Now it is sold to Dow Chemicals (or at least the part of Leuna Werke that we dealt with).
That shall be said; all the old buddies got lavish pension sceems leaving their posts in their fifties. I met one of them waiting for a ferry up in the north of Norway a few years ago. It was a tearfull reunion, - with lot of laughter, I can tell you. He and his wife travelled with a camper around Europe. - He had never had it better, I was told.
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Paul T.
Veteran
Apparently that;s what did for a lot of people in the Wall Street crash. They took advantage of the initial falling prices to buy.Al Patterson said:
But the brief recovery was a Dead Cat Bounce. (what a world of imagery is in that phrase). So it was those who piled in got burnt the worst.
That said, when house prices tumble in Britain, is when we'll be looking for a place with one more bedroom...
R
ruben
Guest
Al Patterson said:
And the Kiev ?
Go to the FSU subforum and look for the raising prices of Soviet gear and their prosperous future.
Cheers,
Ruben
kevin m
Veteran
Mr. Olsen, thanks for your contributions to this thread. We Americans desperately need to hear from someone outside our domestic feedback loop. Cheers, and wish us luck.🙂