Al Patterson
Ferroequinologist
ruben said:
It never hurts to diverisfy. I own a house, some stocks in my retirement accounts, fold, silver and a few cameras. I may just have to invest in a Kiev or two next time the prices dip.
I'll wander over to that forum and check for your advice regarding Kievs.
Al Patterson
Ferroequinologist
Paul T. said:
I do know someone who timed the 1987 crash fairly well and made quite a bit of money. He's retired now and all his money is in Gold and government bonds. The old saying that "The bulls make money, the bears make money and the pigs get slaughtered" comes to mind.
jarski
Veteran
35mmdelux said:
well, I knew it was coming too, but when and from what sector ?
today was a nervous day in stocks again, but I still think its just a corrective move.
the splash of house loan bubble in US should not be big enough to wet the face of the whole rest of the world
but, hope its not first domino piece that is now shaking.
35mmdelux
Veni, vidi, vici
jarski said:well, I knew it was coming too, but when and from what sector ?
today was a nervous day in stocks again, but I still think its just a corrective move.
the splash of house loan bubble in US should not be big enough to wet the face of the whole rest of the world
I don't think I understand your question? In high tech, the stock was priced incredibly high over book value. Fools gambit.
In housing, a corrective action (10%) is peanuts compared to a full on re-alignment. Housing has exceeded the overall cost of living as well as wages, so we knew it was matter of time for it to crash. My interest is in a re-alignment action where the bottom will drop as it did in the early 1990s. At this point I'll step in a buy my dream house 40% on the dollar.
The USA is the economic engine that drives the industrialized world. As such, any waves in the USA will have ripple effects world wide. Remember too that many financial institutions are inter-related globally and their investments are worldwide...Deutschland may be a large exporter, but if the US isn't buying they'll have to keep their Leicas, Mercedes and BMWs.
Thardy
Veteran
35mmdelux said:
Which was the ORIGINAL idea before all these Matrix Reloaded type speeches popped up.
Olsen
Well-known
35mmdelux said:
That is indeed what I have been yellin' about from my soap box!
When US consumers are sucking their thumbs and dollar fall, it will hit employment in Europe. Trade across the Atlantic is 'the' most important trade route in the world economy.
Not only that; these loan 'packages' - a new sort of 'financially engineered' products that are going around these days, have been sold extensively across the Atlantic. In the US they were regarded as a substitute to 'safety funds', like the European banks have. Now these packages have been sold to european banks and, in a way, US banks is piggy-backing on european safety funds. Anyone who see what I mean?
Guess who looks stupid now...?
35mmdelux
Veni, vidi, vici
Thardy said:
Olsen - Good point.
Thardy - The original question was "is the world heading towards economic recession?"
These aren't speeches, merely discussion and opinions.
Olsen
Well-known
Oslo Stock Exchange fell early this morning, but bounced back like a rubber ball when the Feds announced a interest rate cut of 0.50. - Despite that our national bank increased our prime rate with 0,25 on Wednesday the dollar is up (?). So is also the Euro towards NOK. So NOK is falling. Must be speculators raking in their profits the the currency market (Covered Interest Arbitrage). - That is a typical european inefficiency; all those currencies!
Statoil is higher than I sold to (damned!). The others are unchanged.
Statoil is higher than I sold to (damned!). The others are unchanged.
35mmdelux
Veni, vidi, vici
Alot of guys are raking in multi-millions off this panic selling. Now that the US Fed dropped the prime, the hucksters will make bigger coin.
Thardy
Veteran
I hope the cuts keep coming.
retow
Well-known
Thardy said:
Be carefull what you are wishing for. The rate cut is the effect only. Caused by recession and deflationary concerns of the Fed.
In their last week´s meeting they left rates unchanged to then pump huge liquidities into the market only a few days thereafter. And everything topped by a significant rate cut today. I recommend to watch their moves rather than listen to their comments.
Anybody believing they are seriously concerned?
Thardy
Veteran
retow said:Be carefull what you are wishing for. The rate cut is the effect only. Caused by recession and deflationary concerns of the Fed.
In their last week´s meeting they left rates unchanged to then pump huge liquidities into the market only a few days thereafter. And everything topped by a significant rate cut today. I recommend to watch their moves rather than listen to their comments.
Anybody believing they are seriously concerned?
I hope the cuts keep coming.
Olsen
Well-known
Yes, it is interesting to look for the winners.35mmdelux said:
As earlier mentioned; the big winners we see in this maze is the hegde fund managers. They have been raking in billions of dollars, - 2% of the fund's total capital is taxed as income tax (35%) while 20% of the fund's profit is taxed as financial income (15%), although it is not their money.
Stephen Schwarzman netted 600 $ as late as June this year when his hedge fund, Blackstone Capital went public. His share of the business is still 4 billion $,- but falling sharply.
Another example:
Hedge fund manager James Simons of Renesance Technology, regarded as the world's most successfull hedge fund, took out 1,5 billion $ in 2005 and 1,7 billion $ in 2006.
Then add Bruce Kovner, the founder of Caxton Associates also a hedge fund with more than 10 billion $ of capital. Sallary unknown, - but just imagine. Then it is legenday philatropist George Soros and Quantum Funds, and Paul Tudor Jones of Tudor Investment Corporation with 17 billion $ in their coffers. Louis Bacon, among the top 20 earners in the world through the 90' and beond. Then it is Mark Kingdon, manager fo 5 billion thick Kingdon Capital Managment. etc.
Any other winners?
What we will see, further down the road, is a more drastic revaluation of assets and loans, and a new round of sales. Where most of us will take the bill and a few will rake in new heaps of profits.
Olsen
Well-known
Other winners are car mechanics in Norway! The largest norwegian Ford dealer offers 50.000 NOK per month/600.000 per year (8,333 $ per month - 100,000 $ per year) for newly employed car mechanics. The more experienced that has worked longer with the company has a bonus added to their sallary which makes it possible to earn even more.
While polish workers and other east europeans - mostly unqualified, prosper from the building boom in Norway, it is 'impossible' to find qualified car mechanics here. The few that are educated seek better payed jobs in the oil industry and other service related work.
Link here: http://dt.no/article/20070819/NYHET/708190008/1063/NYHET
As the article say; 50.000 NOK is exceptionally high. 30.000 NOK (5,000 $) is common, though, the competitor say.
While polish workers and other east europeans - mostly unqualified, prosper from the building boom in Norway, it is 'impossible' to find qualified car mechanics here. The few that are educated seek better payed jobs in the oil industry and other service related work.
Link here: http://dt.no/article/20070819/NYHET/708190008/1063/NYHET
As the article say; 50.000 NOK is exceptionally high. 30.000 NOK (5,000 $) is common, though, the competitor say.
kully
Happy Snapper
Don't you have Haynes manuals in Norway!?
Seriously, I might consider doing a NVQ at the local college for those wages.
Seriously, I might consider doing a NVQ at the local college for those wages.
Olsen
Well-known
Kully,
In that case: You are not the first Brit to work here in Norway. Not even the first British car mechanic. - I have no idea what a Haynes manual is, - nor a NVQ. But reckon with that they are looking for qualified people.
In that case: You are not the first Brit to work here in Norway. Not even the first British car mechanic. - I have no idea what a Haynes manual is, - nor a NVQ. But reckon with that they are looking for qualified people.
Olsen said:
Hmmmm sounds like something an economist would say
Here's something to ponder that might (should?) cast the BBC article on Norway's declining oil production in a different light. The title "Norway prepares for dry North Sea" is rather ironic when you consider that the UK's share of the North Sea is also in decline.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3622129.stm
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"Economic students are taught that banks "create" money every time they make a loan, and that the economy is powered by money instead of energy. The juxtaposition of these two data (the first is true, the second is false) leads even Nobel Prize-winning economists to conclude they have discovered a perpetual-motion machine!
No person has had a greater influence on the thinking of experts who have become government regulators of the world's oil and gas industries than economist Morris Adelman: "There are plenty of fossil fuels and no limit to potential electrical capacity. It is all a matter of money."
But Adelman -- and every government regulator he has ever influenced -- is wrong. It is a matter of energy!
Although economists treat energy just like any other resource, it is not like any other resource. Available energy is the prerequisite for all other resources. Moreover, universal energy laws tell us that the economist's perpetual-motion machine is impossible.
To lift 15 kg of oil 5 meters out of the ground requires 735 joules of energy just to overcome gravity -- and the higher the lift, the greater the energy requirements. The most concentrated and most accessible oil is produced first; thereafter, more and more energy is required to find and produce oil. At some point, more energy is spent finding and producing oil than the energy recovered. Thus, Adelman is wrong: it is not all a matter of money.
Neither capital nor labor nor technology can "create" energy (the first law of thermodynamics). Instead, available energy must be spent to transform existing matter (e.g., oil), or to divert an existing energy flow (e.g., wind) into more available energy. The engines that actually do the work in our economy (so-called "heat engines"; e.g., diesel engines) waste more than 50 percent of the energy contained in their fuel (the second law). Thus, Adelman is wrong again: there is a physical limit to potential electrical capacity."
-- Jay Hanson
"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."
-- Kenneth E. Boulding
Al Patterson
Ferroequinologist
jonmanjiro said:Hmmmm sounds like something an economist would say
"Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist."
-- Kenneth E. Boulding
Now that Boulding quote is probably the most interesting comment in the entire thread. Thanks, I hadn't seen that in quite some time.
einolu
Well-known
jon,
i avoid the topic of natural resources because it is too gloomy for me,
i am particuarlly amused by the current fad of "biofuels" which provide less energy than the energy used to grow them, and that's ignorning all the enviromental damage caused by the farming...
i avoid the topic of natural resources because it is too gloomy for me
,i am particuarlly amused by the current fad of "biofuels" which provide less energy than the energy used to grow them, and that's ignorning all the enviromental damage caused by the farming...
kevin m
Veteran
If you're refering to the current Ethanol-from-corn craze here in the U.S., the figures I read say that there's a 3x energy return from that as compared to 50x-plus from fossil fuels. Americans are loony if they think they're going to drive their SUV's with corn squeezings.