Being on the receiving side, never had any missing shipment yet other than lens cap from China once, and that's without tracking so probably the seller lied to me.
The common problem is (these are in realm of "public known secret")
- If you're business that import stuffs in large volume, then some of the cargo will be given as "tribute" to the customs officials.
- Bonus item (such as limited edition DVD bonus) can be snatched away and they feign innocence.
- The customs value got hiked up. My used R-D1s is priced more than a used M9. In this case, you have to go to the airport post office to make a claim. I heard this is the most common.
Happens in random, you can get away with normal procedure most of the time.
Customs tax last time I had toy shipment is about 32.5%, including customs, consumption tax, luxury tax and extra import-deterrent tax. Camera should be the same.
If in Jakarta, my acquaintance suggest monitoring the shipment tracker and as soon as it arrived in Jakarta, go to the airport post office the next day and stand as witness in the customs inspection. If you're not present they will have someone from post office standing as witness.